Thursday, August 21, 2025

My Predictions for the 2025 Emmys: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy

 

I should mention upfront that in all the awards for comedy this category is the only one that Gold Derby does not have an overwhelming favorite by their own standards. Based on their percentage rankings (which are probably no better than odds ranking) all of the winners in these categories have between a ninety percent chance of winning (Smart for Hacks) or at least 70 percent. More importantly the nearest contender usually at best gets above 12 to 14 percent.

With this category alone the experts aren't sure. Ike Barinholtz is the favorite in this category but with little more than 56 percent of the votes. That's pretty close to coin toss. Even more important, the second place contender Harrison Ford is listed at having basically a thirty-five percent chance of winning. Essentially they think it's a coin toss.

I'm inclined to agree it is a two-man race but that doesn't mean there aren't a lot of good choices and some surprising ones. So here are the nominees and my reasons:

 

Ike Barinholtz, The Studio EXPERTS PICK (?) For Playing: Sal Saperstein, the second-in-command at Continental Studios. Pro: I can see why so many people think Barinholtz is the favorite in this category. After watching six episodes of Season 1, Barinholtz has brought his usual perfect comic timing and brilliant gift as second banana that I've loved about him since at least The Mindy Project. We see him as perpetually put-upon by Matt, trying desperately to get his boss' love for cinema out of the very real problem of economics with movies. We see him trying to keep Matt out of Sarah Polley's way (badly) in 'The Oner', inventing a dead cousin to prevent Matt from delivering 'The Note' to Ron Howard (and believing his own lie), trying to keep Matt from going down a film noir rabbit hole to find the missing reel and being hysterically funny all the way through. There can be times he seems like a dick but as we saw there's something sad behind him as we see just how little respect his daughters have for him and how so few of his underlings do – at this point he seems more sympathetic then the rest of the cast. It is an exceptionally sweet and funny performance. (And on a private note, I really want to see a semi-finalist in the Jeopardy Tournament of Champions get an Emmy.) Con: Unlike his co-stars Barinholtz didn't win anything at the Astras a couple of months ago and he hasn't won a single award of any kind of his work. That's probably going to work against him.

Colman Domingo, The Four Seasons. For Playing: Danny, part of three couples who vacation together every season. Pro: Over the last several years Colman Domingo has become one of the most formidable actors in TV or film. He's won an Emmy and other awards for his work in Euphoria; he's received two consecutive Oscar nominations and another in an increasingly line of superb African-American character actors. What he's never gotten a chance to do before is play comedy. And in Tina Fey's Four Seasons he found the right muse and the right role, in a relaxed whimsical show that wasn't really so much about anything as it was about getting older and all that comes with it. With both the shows he stars coming back in some form next year, he will likely be a force in the Emmys for the future. Con: That Domingo managed to get in over other major actors (Tyler James Williams was the most likely overshadowed) came as a shock to many. More to the point, his nomination is the only one The Four Seasons received and in the Emmys that almost inevitably (though not always) dooms the nominee to defeat. Considering the contenders this year, it's likely to be the same.

Harrison Ford, Shrinking. (MY PICK). For Playing: Paul, a brilliant psychiatrist dealing with the problems of his colleagues while facing the continued deterioration of his body to Parkinson's. Pro: I'm going to separate sentimentality from this and try to be objective. Setting aside that Harrison Ford has spent a half century in Hollywood and has not won so much as a bowling trophy despite being arguably the greatest box office star for nearly forty years, Ford's work in Shrinking is objectively some of the best work he has done in his entire career. I am talking as someone who has loved the overwhelming majority of the movies he has made during that period and was willing to tolerate some very badly made sequels over the years because of his sheer presence. This is to be clear a cast with some of the greatest comic actors of working today all in one place and with one line Ford is always funnier than them. He completely leans into the grumpy old man persona every moment he's onscreen, the man who knows he's the smartest man in the room at any time and who you never judge because he is. That doesn't mean he hasn't made mistakes and isn't still capable of making them. But as we saw in Season 2, every character would have done better had they just listened to Paul. Paul knew this but he was also good enough to know he had to just let these chaotic people learn this for themselves – and proved it with Jimmy in the penultimate episode, the hardest patient to convince. Every scene out of Ford was magic and that's before you consider the season finale (which he submitted to the judges) where Paul finally, reluctantly, acknowledged bad days were ahead and how much he loved everyone. It did my heart good to know that Ford prevailed at the Astras two months ago and it's hard for me the see the Emmys not picking him. Con: Two things stand in his way. The first is the Emmys general lack of sentimentality when it comes to determining winners – we've seen that happen to Steve Martin, Martin Short and Christina Applegate in recent years. The second is the fact that one of his co-stars is competing against him this year and we can never tell how much of his vote will split off from Ford's.

Jeff Hiller,  Somebody Somewhere For Playing: Joel, a gay man in Kansas settling into a new relationship while balancing things with his circle of friends. Pro: I won't lie; Hiller's nomination was the one that gave me the probably the most pleasure of any single acting nomination in this category and maybe for the entire Emmys. Somebody Somewhere is one of the great shows of this decade and I had really hoped that it would get some recognition from the Emmys for its final season. In my heart I thought Bridget Everett had the best chance of a nomination, never in a million years did I think Hiller did. It's not that his work hasn't been just as masterful as Everett's during the show's wonderful three season run as he plays the best friend we've all wanted; it's that it's such a quieter great work that it's the kind of performance the Emmy basically chooses to ignore. And there was much of it in the final season as we saw Joel finally in a relationship with another man in Kansas and spending much of the season compromising much of what Sam – and the viewer – had loved about him during that period. But over the season he told his lover the truth about what he felt and slowly we could see a sense of him, like everyone else, moving forward optimistically into the future. In an increasingly troubled time for people that live in the world Somebody Somewhere represents Hiller's work was a quiet triumph of joy and humor. I'm overjoyed he was recognized. Con: Having been down this road with Reservation Dogs last year, I think we know the nomination will serve as the honor. And I think both I – and Hiller – are fine with that.

Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear. For Playing: Cousin Richie, trying to help his family's new restaurant succeed when so many have failed. Pro: Of all the characters on The Bear Richie has by far demonstrated the most emotional growth from when the show began and compared to his cousin he's a giant. It says something for the dysfunction in this crew that by the time this season is over he's one of the few people still thinking lucidly and for the future. Moss-Bachrach remains by far the true standout of this series and there have been more than  a few three-peats in this category in this century. Con: Moss-Bachrach's momentum officially died when he lost the Golden Globe last year. Like everyone but White, he hasn't won a single award this season. Considering just how formidable the talent is this year; I'd say his chances are as good of winning as the restaurant was of getting a Michelin star this season.

Michael Urie, Shrinking. For Playing: Brian, dealing with potential fatherhood and the existence of a face from the past. Pro: I was surprised when Urie won this award from the Critics Choice Awards in January only because Urie was the sole nominee for Shrinking by that organization. It was also the only major group that didn't nominate in some form "that young and up and comer Harrison Ford' as Urie said when he accepted his award. But not even I could deny the wonderful comedy of Brian every episode he appears in. Like so many Michael Urie characters Brian is incredibly self-involved and egotistical on the surface but compassionate and loving underneath: we see he clearly wants to help people and he tries to do so every way, even if it ends up accidentally hurting someone else. But there's always something warm under the surface, someone who, despite his own doubts, has made a good husband and will make a good father. We know this because he is a good friend and if he can get out of his own way, a good person. He deserved his prize and his nomination. Con: I think it's safe to see even Urie would prefer Ford win over himself. More seriously the Critics Choice Award alone counts for very little and it is the only prize leading up to the Emmys that Urie has won. It's not going to be enough this year.

Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live. For Playing: Various Characters. Pro: Even as SNL began to struggle creatively as it reached its golden jubilee no one could deny the ability of Yang to maintain the brilliant comedic luster he's had. This year he added J.D. Vance into his repertoire of characters (one I'm sure he's not happy that he now has a regular job playing for the next several years) and continued to demonstrate his gift for parody as the outstanding veteran in sketch comedy for the last decade. Con: Saturday Night Live has never done will in the supporting categories and the few wins they've notched this century may have had more to do with current events rather than the overall quality of the performers. It's not going to change this year.

 

Prediction: Harrison Ford deserves to win and I really think he's going to. I think even Barinholtz wants it to happen in his heart. I know both men will get more chances but Ford deserves it more.

Tomorrow I wrap up this part of it with Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy and the other major contenders in this genre. How many awards will The Studio and Hacks divide between them? Tomorrow's article will give my predictions.

 

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