I should mention upfront that in all
the awards for comedy this category is the only one that Gold Derby does not
have an overwhelming favorite by their own standards. Based on their percentage
rankings (which are probably no better than odds ranking) all of the winners in
these categories have between a ninety percent chance of winning (Smart for
Hacks) or at least 70 percent. More importantly the nearest contender usually
at best gets above 12 to 14 percent.
With this category alone the experts
aren't sure. Ike Barinholtz is the favorite in this category but with little
more than 56 percent of the votes. That's pretty close to coin toss. Even more
important, the second place contender Harrison Ford is listed at having basically
a thirty-five percent chance of winning. Essentially they think it's a coin toss.
I'm inclined to agree it is a two-man
race but that doesn't mean there aren't a lot of good choices and some
surprising ones. So here are the nominees and my reasons:
Ike Barinholtz, The Studio EXPERTS
PICK (?) For Playing: Sal
Saperstein, the second-in-command at Continental Studios. Pro: I can see
why so many people think Barinholtz is the favorite in this category. After
watching six episodes of Season 1, Barinholtz has brought his usual perfect
comic timing and brilliant gift as second banana that I've loved about him
since at least The Mindy Project. We see him as perpetually put-upon by
Matt, trying desperately to get his boss' love for cinema out of the very real problem
of economics with movies. We see him trying to keep Matt out of Sarah Polley's
way (badly) in 'The Oner', inventing a dead cousin to prevent Matt from
delivering 'The Note' to Ron Howard (and believing his own lie), trying to keep
Matt from going down a film noir rabbit hole to find the missing reel and being
hysterically funny all the way through. There can be times he seems like a dick
but as we saw there's something sad behind him as we see just how little
respect his daughters have for him and how so few of his underlings do – at this
point he seems more sympathetic then the rest of the cast. It is an
exceptionally sweet and funny performance. (And on a private note, I really
want to see a semi-finalist in the Jeopardy Tournament of Champions get an
Emmy.) Con: Unlike his co-stars Barinholtz didn't win anything at the Astras
a couple of months ago and he hasn't won a single award of any kind of his
work. That's probably going to work against him.
Colman Domingo, The Four Seasons. For
Playing: Danny, part
of three couples who vacation together every season. Pro: Over the last several
years Colman Domingo has become one of the most formidable actors in TV or
film. He's won an Emmy and other awards for his work in Euphoria; he's
received two consecutive Oscar nominations and another in an increasingly line
of superb African-American character actors. What he's never gotten a chance to
do before is play comedy. And in Tina Fey's Four Seasons he found the
right muse and the right role, in a relaxed whimsical show that wasn't really so
much about anything as it was about getting older and all that comes with it. With
both the shows he stars coming back in some form next year, he will likely be a
force in the Emmys for the future. Con: That Domingo managed to get in
over other major actors (Tyler James Williams was the most likely overshadowed)
came as a shock to many. More to the point, his nomination is the only one The
Four Seasons received and in the Emmys that almost inevitably (though not
always) dooms the nominee to defeat. Considering the contenders this year, it's
likely to be the same.
Harrison Ford, Shrinking. (MY
PICK). For Playing: Paul,
a brilliant psychiatrist dealing with the problems of his colleagues while
facing the continued deterioration of his body to Parkinson's. Pro: I'm
going to separate sentimentality from this and try to be objective. Setting
aside that Harrison Ford has spent a half century in Hollywood and has not won
so much as a bowling trophy despite being arguably the greatest box office star
for nearly forty years, Ford's work in Shrinking is objectively some of
the best work he has done in his entire career. I am talking as someone who has
loved the overwhelming majority of the movies he has made during that period
and was willing to tolerate some very badly made sequels over the years because
of his sheer presence. This is to be clear a cast with some of the greatest
comic actors of working today all in one place and with one line Ford is always
funnier than them. He completely leans into the grumpy old man persona every
moment he's onscreen, the man who knows he's the smartest man in the room at
any time and who you never judge because he is. That doesn't mean he
hasn't made mistakes and isn't still capable of making them. But as we saw in
Season 2, every character would have done better had they just listened to
Paul. Paul knew this but he was also good enough to know he had to just let these
chaotic people learn this for themselves – and proved it with Jimmy in the
penultimate episode, the hardest patient to convince. Every scene out of Ford was
magic and that's before you consider the season finale (which he submitted to
the judges) where Paul finally, reluctantly, acknowledged bad days were ahead
and how much he loved everyone. It did my heart good to know that Ford
prevailed at the Astras two months ago and it's hard for me the see the Emmys not
picking him. Con: Two things stand in his way. The first is the
Emmys general lack of sentimentality when it comes to determining winners – we've
seen that happen to Steve Martin, Martin Short and Christina Applegate in
recent years. The second is the fact that one of his co-stars is competing
against him this year and we can never tell how much of his vote will split off
from Ford's.
Jeff Hiller, Somebody Somewhere For Playing: Joel, a gay man in Kansas settling
into a new relationship while balancing things with his circle of friends. Pro:
I won't lie; Hiller's nomination was the one that gave me the probably the
most pleasure of any single acting nomination in this category and maybe for
the entire Emmys. Somebody Somewhere is one of the great shows of this
decade and I had really hoped that it would get some recognition from the Emmys
for its final season. In my heart I thought Bridget Everett had the best chance
of a nomination, never in a million years did I think Hiller did. It's not that
his work hasn't been just as masterful as Everett's during the show's wonderful
three season run as he plays the best friend we've all wanted; it's that it's
such a quieter great work that it's the kind of performance the Emmy basically
chooses to ignore. And there was much of it in the final season as we saw Joel
finally in a relationship with another man in Kansas and spending much of the
season compromising much of what Sam – and the viewer – had loved about him
during that period. But over the season he told his lover the truth about what
he felt and slowly we could see a sense of him, like everyone else, moving
forward optimistically into the future. In an increasingly troubled time for
people that live in the world Somebody Somewhere represents Hiller's
work was a quiet triumph of joy and humor. I'm overjoyed he was recognized. Con:
Having been down this road with Reservation Dogs last year, I think
we know the nomination will serve as the honor. And I think both I – and Hiller
– are fine with that.
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear. For
Playing: Cousin
Richie, trying to help his family's new restaurant succeed when so many have
failed. Pro: Of all the characters on The Bear Richie has by far
demonstrated the most emotional growth from when the show began and compared to
his cousin he's a giant. It says something for the dysfunction in this crew
that by the time this season is over he's one of the few people still thinking
lucidly and for the future. Moss-Bachrach remains by far the true standout of
this series and there have been more than
a few three-peats in this category in this century. Con: Moss-Bachrach's
momentum officially died when he lost the Golden Globe last year. Like everyone
but White, he hasn't won a single award this season. Considering just how
formidable the talent is this year; I'd say his chances are as good of winning
as the restaurant was of getting a Michelin star this season.
Michael Urie, Shrinking. For
Playing: Brian,
dealing with potential fatherhood and the existence of a face from the past. Pro:
I was surprised when Urie won this award from the Critics Choice Awards in
January only because Urie was the sole nominee for Shrinking by that organization.
It was also the only major group that didn't nominate in some form "that
young and up and comer Harrison Ford' as Urie said when he accepted his award.
But not even I could deny the wonderful comedy of Brian every episode he
appears in. Like so many Michael Urie characters Brian is incredibly
self-involved and egotistical on the surface but compassionate and loving
underneath: we see he clearly wants to help people and he tries to do so every
way, even if it ends up accidentally hurting someone else. But there's always
something warm under the surface, someone who, despite his own doubts, has made
a good husband and will make a good father. We know this because he is a good
friend and if he can get out of his own way, a good person. He deserved his
prize and his nomination. Con: I think it's safe to see even Urie would
prefer Ford win over himself. More seriously the Critics Choice Award alone
counts for very little and it is the only prize leading up to the Emmys that
Urie has won. It's not going to be enough this year.
Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live. For
Playing: Various
Characters. Pro: Even as SNL began to struggle creatively as it
reached its golden jubilee no one could deny the ability of Yang to maintain
the brilliant comedic luster he's had. This year he added J.D. Vance into his repertoire
of characters (one I'm sure he's not happy that he now has a regular job
playing for the next several years) and continued to demonstrate his gift for
parody as the outstanding veteran in sketch comedy for the last decade. Con:
Saturday Night Live has never done will in the supporting categories
and the few wins they've notched this century may have had more to do with
current events rather than the overall quality of the performers. It's not
going to change this year.
Prediction: Harrison Ford deserves to win and I
really think he's going to. I think even Barinholtz wants it to happen in his
heart. I know both men will get more chances but Ford deserves it more.
Tomorrow I wrap up this part of it
with Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy and the other major contenders
in this genre. How many awards will The Studio and Hacks divide
between them? Tomorrow's article will give my predictions.
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