Wednesday, August 20, 2025

My Predictions for This Year's Emmys: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

 

This is going to be one of the gimmes of Emmy night and because of that attention should be paid both to the significance and talent of the five nominees in this category.

The historical and cultural significance needs to be made clear. For the first time in the history of the Emmys, the makeup of this category is majority-minority. This is something that would have unthinkable to me even five years ago when we had the greatest number of minority nominees in Emmy history. (You can look this up: none of them were in this category.) This would be a historic moment in Emmy history, but as we'll see there are at least two other acting categories that make this almost pale by comparison.

Now to the talent. All of five these actresses are among the greatest talents working in television today. Even before Emmy night the nominees in this category have already won ten Emmys. To make it more remarkable two of them are hyphenates this year for the series they star in – and that's before you get to the obligatory producers credit. Only one of them has not won an Emmy in a career that is significantly longer than two of the other nominees even though she has starred in a show that was nominated for Beat Comedy three years running.

This may well be lost over what everyone – myself included – agrees is an inevitable victory. But I have no intention of going through the motions in a category that, if anything, has a greater array of talent then the nominees I listed yesterday. So without further ado, here are the nominees:

 

Uzo Aduba, The Residence. For Playing: Cordelia Cupp, a sleuth called in to investigate a murder in the White House. Pro: In little more than a decade Uzo Aduba has gone from a virtual unknown to one of the most versatile actresses in television. One of the few performers to win acting Emmys in all three major categories (Comedy, Drama, and Limited Series/TV Movie) it's been proven ever since her win in Mrs. America that there's nothing she can't play. So her teaming with Shondaland was inevitable. What might not have been was just how hysterical and calm she could be as her character is called-in under the most dire of circumstances to quickly solve a murder in the White House. This is a scenario that's pure Agatha Christie and you can see Aduba taking more joy in a role than she has in a long, long time. It's the kind of work that deserves recognition but rarely gets it and it's good to see Aduba honored. Con: Aduba's nomination was by far the biggest upset in July. Most people (myself included) had expected that Natasha Lyonne would be here, if not Selena Gomez. Furthermore not long before the nominations were announced The Residence was cancelled despite being a success for Netflix both in terms of critics and viewers. These are two strikes that it's highly unlikely Aduba could overcome before you consider the caliber of the other nominees in this category. Throw in the fact Aduba has gotten three acting Emmys already and she's almost certainly the least likely to upset Smart this year.

Kristen Bell, Nobody Wants This. For Playing: Joanne, the host of a podcaster who finds nothing prepares her for falling in love with a hot rabbi. Pro: Bell is the only performer in this category to have never won an Emmy. And when you consider her entire career, starting with Veronica Mars and finishing up with her most recent masterpiece The Good Place you really get the feeling the judges at the Emmys have rocks in their heads. Bell has the gift to make even the kind of series that are clearly beneath her (witness House of Lies) still have some redeeming value and her work as Joanne is yet another demonstration as to why she is one of the greatest actresses in the history of television. As I've mentioned over and over the biggest joke in Nobody Wants This is that everyone in Noah's inner circle detests Joanne on sight when Bell has been one of the most beloved actresses in history over the years. As Joanne she strikes the right balance between farce, sexuality and compassion the way she has done so many times in her career, and the fact that she spends much of it considering converting to Judaism only makes me love this 'shiksa' even more. She should have won a dozen times over by now, so on sympathy she deserves to win. Con: Remember her cameo in Hacks this season? We all know that's as close as Bell is going to get to an Emmy this year.

Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary. For Playing: Janine, a fourth-grade teacher at the title school. Pro: Like the comedy she stars in Brunson has nothing left to prove as an actress. Brunson as always knows the best way to play Janine whenever she's dealing with change is to keep her exactly the same and that what she does all season now that she as Gregory are finally a couple. Not a single element of their nerdy love story changed now that they were together (we all loved them on Halloween night) and we saw Janine trying to build a better life for her colleagues, trying to help Ava even when she said she didn't need it, and continuing to win over everybody, including delightfully in the finale, Gregory's ultra serious father. Nothing has changed about the comedy or the caliber of Brunson's work and it never will. Con: Brunson's already made history by becoming the first African-American woman to win for both acting and writing. There's no reason not to give her another Emmy but there's no compelling reason to give another one. The rest of her co-stars and the show itself, definitely. For acting, I can't make the argument.

Ayo Edebiri, The Bear. For Playing: Syd, the chef trying to deal with the pressure of a new restaurant and so much around her. Pro: Edebiri is by far the breakout talent of The Bear and her ability to do anything has actually expanded since her win for Best Supporting Actress in the 2023 Emmys. She has since been nominated for writing an episode of What We Do In The Shadows and this year confirmed her talent by directing 'Napkins' the one episode of Season 3 that everyone agrees was a masterpiece. As it becomes clear that she and Carmy will never hook up, Syd is determined to find her own path in the chaotic world that surround his family and friends and she continues to be an icon of stability. Like the character she plays, Edebiri is the consummate professional. Con: The moment that Smart beat Edebiri for Outstanding Actress in a Comedy, after she had swept the awards at the end of January, was the lynch-pin that demonstrated both Hacks eventual triumph on Emmy night last September and confirmed how much the show had fallen in the eyes of its peers in a short time. Edebiri has a better chance (albeit a remote one) of winning Best Director in a Comedy then she does against the Actress who's already beaten her in their previous head-to-head.

Jean Smart, Hacks. EXPERTS PICK, MY PICK. For Playing: Deb Vance, the first woman in late night. Pro: With the exception of a hiccup when Natasha Lyonne won at the Astra in June, Smart has already done what she's done once before, swept every awards shows from the Emmys last September to the SAG Awards in February. She was the odds-on frontrunner to win her fourth Emmy in five years (but four seasons) even before Season 4 dropped. And nothing anyone has seen about the show has done anything to diminish that expectation. It's hard to argue that there's something that makes Smart's work better than the incredibly high bar she keeps setting and getting over each season but watching her realize her dream kept giving us a chance to prove. From her now blood feud with Ava after her portrayal and Ava's insistence in art over commerce (an argument that is more pertinent now more than ever) this led to arguably the most important episode in the show's history when perhaps for the first time in her career – or life – Deb chose someone else over her own interests, choosing to step down from her fifty year dream. That led to even darker moment in the season finale which made us worry about her in a way we never have. I remain in complete awe of Smart every moment she's on screen. This is not the greatest work she's ever done but like her character, it's the one she'll be remembered for. And I couldn't be happier. Con: It's possible the Emmys might want to shine a light on someone else, but as we all know Smart's light is so bright it dwarfs all others.

 

My Prediction: Last year I picked Smart even though the odds were against it. I see no reason to think she won't make it four for four this year.

 

Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy, which according to the experts is the only one in this category that doesn't have an overwhelming favorite. I do, and I'm pretty sure he's got it locked up.

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