Tuesday, August 19, 2025

My Predictions for the 2025 Emmys, Week 1, Day 2

 

There's an argument – a good one – that this category is much closer than it appears at Gold Derby. It seems to be based on the overwhelming momentum for The Studio overall rather than other factors, not the least of which is the Emmys has, historically, cared very little for momentum when it comes to most shows.

There has been little consensus from the various awards shows in the last ten months on the subject and I could make a convincing argument for all five nominees. And since that's what this article is for, I'll try to do just that.

 

Adam Brody, Nobody Wants This (My Favorite) For Playing: Noah, a rabbi who is pursuing a relationship with Joanne against the objections of…well, everybody. Pro: Almost from the moment this comedy dropped on Netflix the buzz on 'hot rabbi' Adam Brody was almost overwhelming. He was nominated for every award at the end of the year and eventually won Best Actor in a Comedy from the Critics' Choice Awards in January. And it's obvious why so many people have been drawn both to the show and Brody for his wonderful humanistic turn as a man of faith who wants to get together with Joanne so badly you can see him going through Talmudic law to find a loophole to be with her. It doesn't help his family thinks Joanne is just a phase and that they still prefer the women he broke up with months ago and are sure he will marry no matter how much he objects to it. (If you're  Jewish you know too well that when it comes to a relationship what the couple involved wants is irrelevant to what their families do.) Like every other actor in this category Brody has also been acting since he was a child and like all of them it's only now he's starting to get the awards buzz from critics he's deserved for years. It might be a cliché but I certainly want this to happen. Con: As we'll see, being the early favorite didn't help him with the overwhelming majority of awards even before Seth Rogen dropped on to the scene. I don't think it will now.

 

Seth Rogen, The Studio. EXPERTS PICK. For Playing: Matt Resnick, a movie lover who is the new head of Continental Studio. Pro: As I mentioned in my original review of this show almost every comedy in this category is the product of a hyphenate as has been the trend for much of the last decade. But in keeping with the Hollywood spirit of auteur Rogen has become this year's Warren Beatty or if you want to be more recent Richard Gadd. And it's hard not to love the work he puts into his performance as the new head of Continental, a man who's love for all things cinema and art really annoys even his closest friends and irritates his underlings. Even after having seen just half the season I've seen just how much Rogen is willing to humiliate himself for a laugh, whether its falling over himself to see 'The Oner' and absolutely ruining the entire days work, his terror at giving Ron Howard 'a note' because of a horrible experience with him – and then being beaten up by him when he does, or when his terror of being 'the man who killed film' leads him to uproariously parody every aspect of film noir, Rogen is determined to play tribute to another great film moment: "Don't you know everyone wants to laugh?" He's already won the Astra in this category and he seems to have momentum. Con: It's hard to believe Rogen won't win at least one other Emmy in some other category and while the Emmys are more than willing to let hyphenates win in other categories, it's a rarity here. The Emmys might very well choose to spread the love around.

 

Jason Segel, Shrinking. For Playing: Jimmy, a psychiatrist still trying to deal with the burden of the loss of his wife a year ago. Pro: The other Judd Apatow veteran starring in an Apple TV show Segel's work is the better balance of comedy and drama in this show, to the point that while it can be dark no one has ever questioned that Shrinking is a comedy. We spent the season watching Jimmy letting go of some of the flaws that overwhelming his process in Season 1, rebuilding his relationships with some people who he hurt last year, and trying to deal by not dealing with Louis's arrival. His work in the last two episodes of Season 2 was sublime as we saw Jimmy come face-to-face with the fact that he's been avoiding truly doing the work to help himself all this time, finding a way to make things better with his daughter for good – and perhaps most movingly in the final minutes, finding there is room in his heart to save someone in need. It's a wonderful balance that Segel plays brilliantly. Con: Segel is the only nominee who didn't win any awards during the leadup to the Emmys which in recent years is often a dealbreaker. And let's face it, there's a more prominent Freaks & Geeks alum who the Emmys would probably honor first rather than him.

 

Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building. For Playing: Oliver Putnam, a Broadway producer-turned podcaster/sleuth, now on the verge of being portrayed on the silver screen. Pro: I've said it before and I'll say it again: how is that Martin Short has spent his entire career and not won a single Emmy for acting? Oh I grant the two Emmys he's won for writing and Variety specials? But nothing for acting in a quarter of a century of work? Set aside the fact neither of his co-stars are nominated at all; how is it he's currently 0 for 3 in this category? (I know, I know, see below.) His work as Oliver has always been the most over-the-top as well as the most performative and at times at humane. I was overjoyed when he ended up winning the SAG award in this category in February but I think it's well past time they honored him. Con: The Emmys seems to have it out for the actors in this category just as much as the way murder seems to stalk the trio at the Arconia. Being excellent never seems to be good enough, and the field never gets any less combative.

 

Jeremy Allan White, The Bear. For Playing: Carmy, the ace chef of a brand new Chicago restaurant still refusing to deal with the losses of his cousin's suicide and the trauma of the family he's a part of. Pro: Despite the backlash that was circling the show almost from the moment Season 3 dropped White did manage to make it three in a row from the Golden Globes in this category this past January. And much as one might want to have problems with whether The Bear is a comedy none of the trouble has to do with the cast. That's particularly true of White who continues to lead this series into some of its most unprecedented territory as Carmy continues to focus on trying to make his restaurant a success because that's less painful then trying to deal with the baggage of his family or trying to emotionally grow. It's by far the deepest performance on this show. Con: White's Golden Globe is the only award The Bear has won in all of 2025 from any major awards show in any category. Regardless of whether The Bear is a comedy or not (I can still argue it is) the reviews on Season 3 are pretty clear that it is no longer the best anything anymore. Throw in the fact that in the 21st century no one has managed to win three consecutive Emmys in this category and I think White's streak is going to end here.

 

PREDICTION: Much as I think this isn't as one-sided at Gold Derby says I am inclined to agree with the consensus that Rogen will win. Besides, even with my issues with White, there are no bad choices in this category.

 

Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding Actress in a Comedy. This one is by far the easiest one to predict when it comes to Comedy.

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