When I gave my initial predictions for
the nominees in this category I made it clear that I believed that this was the
closest race in over a decade. And even though there appears to be an
overwhelming frontrunner I'm not inclined to believe it will win the same way
the rest of the awards community is.
As you'll see going forward there are
still signs that the hundred-pound gorilla may have feet of clay and that the
majority of the contenders all have arguments for them. Here are the nominees
and who I'll predict.
Andor (Disney Plus) Pro: Famously this series has been
described as 'Star Wars for people who never liked Star Wars'. Few
terms have ever been more accurate and more complimentary. As the long awaited
second season unfolded viewers saw in a way that we've never seen in half a century just what it was like living
under the Empire, the cost of rebellion and a world where no thinks of such
things as light-sabers, Jedis and would laugh at the idea of some kind of
mystical force. Led by a superb cast including Diego Luna in one of the most
wrenching roles he's ever done, Tony Gilroy's vision makes it clear that we needed
someone who didn't really like George Lucas's vision to tell the Star Wars story
we've always needed. Who would have thought that it took someone who had no use
for the trappings of droids or mystical royalty to make this dusty franchise
relevant, powerful and riveting to watch in a way Star Wars hasn't been,
well, since long, long ago. Con: This has never been the kind of IP that
awards show of any kind like giving the grand prize to. We've seen it happen
with The Mandalorian and quite a few other limited series. And set aside
from that, there are far better shows in this category.
The Diplomat (Netflix) Pro: This is one of the more
enjoyable political dramas on TV today, precisely because even when it looks at
the larger global implications of the story it never stops to be either
personal or humane. Following Kate Wyler as she realizes that there is a global
plot for terrorism coming from 'inside the house', we watch her deal with the
ramifications of a car bomb that nearly killed her husband to the realization
that the Vice President who's job she's been quietly being groomed for the last
two seasons was behind what happened – and has just become the leader of the
free world. In her third straight master class of drama Keri Russell continues
to demonstrate why she is one of the finest actresses working to date and she
is led by a team of great performers, old and new. This show will be a force in
this category for years to come. Con: Only the show and Russell were
nominated by the Emmys this year and while it was nominated by every group in
the book, it went home empty handed. The same is just as likely to happen here.
The Last of Us (HBO) Pro: After waiting two seasons we returned
to the post-apocalyptic world of Joel and Ellie and found the horrible ramifications
of what happened after the end of the first season. We were devastated by one
of the most wrenching deaths in television history so far this decade, saw just
how the ripple effects of trauma break people again and again, saw a vision of
revenge, a story of love, a flashback to Joel and Ellie's life in Colorado and all
of the devastation that unfolded as a result. And the second season ended
mirroring the first, showing how Ellie's devastation caused collateral damage
that killed so many more innocent lives and may not hold her own in the
balance. Combined with the kind of awesome battle sequences this side of Game
of Thrones and you have the rare sequel that outperforms the original. Con:
You might be slightly aware of the backlash that has come from the fanboy
community in the aftermath of Season 2 as they have attempted to review bomb
into oblivion which dared to cast it leads based on the best performances
rather than how they resembled the pixelated version. The Emmys doesn't usually
pay attention to things like that. The bigger problem was that while the
critical response to Season 2 was incredibly favorable, it was not the kind of
raves that they showed Season 1. That and considering the prevalence of so many
genre shows in this category is likely to divide the vote.
Paradise (Hulu) PERSONAL PICK. Pro: Many were stunned when this Hulu
series was nominated for Best Drama instead of the second season of Squid Game.
I wasn't. While not nearly as humane as the last collaboration between Sterling
K. Brown and Dan Fogler, Paradise managed to put together the most
intriguing post-apocalyptic scenario I've seen on TV in a while and in a way
the most realistic. Set up as investigating the murder of the former President
of the United States, Paradise peeled back to reveal what might really
happen if we knew that the world was going to end and the very real costs of
what it meant to those who survived. Far more a character piece than any of the
shows I've seen that dealt with the subject, the penultimate episode may have
shown, by reducing it to its most human level, what the end of the world would
like and in the season finale just what the cost of this new world had really
been just for its existence. In a different world this would be one of the overwhelming
favorites to win and in every category. Con: I'm glad the show got the
four Emmy nominations it did but I'm as
much a realist as the characters in Paradise when it comes to its
chances. There are shows that have a chance to upset the biggest favorite in
this category but Paradise doesn't have enough nominations to manage it.
The Pitt (HBO Max) Pro: There hasn't been a show
like The Pitt on any service in a very long time. I'm not just talking
about the fact that it unfolds in real time, something no show has done since 24
or the fact that it is longer than the majority of series that have been
winning in this category for even longer: fifteen episodes as opposed to thirteen
or ten. No, I'm talking about the fact that for the first time in a long time that
isn't about horrible wealthy people doing horrible things or uses a sci-fi
trope to tell the stories about today. The Pitt is a show that tells us
in all the horrendous ugliness about just how screwed up our medical system is,
not only to the patients stuck in overcrowded waiting rooms or the horrible
bureaucracy but to the men and women who work it. This is a show about mental
health and how today's world erodes it at every level, and we see every person
in The Pitt dealing with it in the worst way possible on a day that probably
isn't even that bad for them. (And this is, I'm aware, a series that has a mass
casualty effect take place in the final hours.) Led by the incredible Noah Wyle
we see a cast trying to move from trauma to trauma, somehow keep their sanity –
and honestly not doing that great a job. When it swept the Television Critics
Associations Awards this past week, it recognized something that we haven't
seen on TV: working class Americans trying to keep up with a board that is
never empty, patients they can't move and a system irrevocably broken. The most
likely candidate to upset. Con: It's arguably the best freshman series
in this group but can it get past the overwhelming favorite?
Severance (Apple TV) (EXPERTS PICK) Pro: It's been three years since Ben
Stiller shocked the world with the first season of his incredible drama about
how one finds work/life balance is the most frightening way possible. When he and
his writers finally came back this January, everyone wondered if this would be
another time a series suffered the sophomore slump. It absolutely didn't. As we
followed one of the greatest casts assembled from the start and watched as they
tried to bring down Lumen before the Cold Harbor project unfolded, we learned
the profoundly sad and distressing backstories of so many of the characters,
saw them face problems that led them to commit the most painful and saddest of
acts, and saw things just get weirder and weirder. (Gwendoline Christie with goats
actually made sense.) The show saw the characters face their past and that have
to deal with losing it while retaining its utter weirdness. The 27 nominations
were the most nominations any series got this past year and its wins for Outstanding
Drama series at the Astras would seem to cement it as frontrunner status. Con:
The operative word is 'seems'. It lost Best Drama to The Pitt at
both the Dorians and the TCA and by and large it has been ignored in awards for
acting in all of the major categories, with few experts expecting it to get a
single win. And it's never clear how well it can do in the technical awards against
so many other genre shows (that played out during the 2022 Emmys). Could the
momentum for the show be starting to crater?
Slow Horses (Apple TV) Pro: The only eligible nominee from last
season, some wondered if the show had a chance to return to the fray. They
wondered this even as Season 4 was nominated by the Golden Globes and the SAG
Awards and all those other guilds. Those of us who watched it, of course, had
no doubts. As Jackson Lamb finds himself trying to deal with both a terrorist
plot and a face he never wanted to see again, as River Cartwright came to reckon
with his past, we the viewer got as always the immense pleasure of watching one
of the best shows of the decade unfold. Yet again the outcasts had to band
together to save London from a horrible threat, yet again Lady Diana found
herself in over her head, and yet again we got a chance to witness some of the
greatest British actors of all time having the most fun in their careers. We'll
be seeing them in these categories for a while. Con: See above. We all
know that if there's a show from Apple TV that's going to win here, it's for
the employees at Lumen rather than the ones at Slough House.
The White Lotus (HBO) Pro: First of all, no one who watched
Season 3 can argue that Mike White's series doesn't qualify as a drama this
year. Second of all, I could make the argument that Season 3 is by far the best
season yet of Mike White's incredible anthology. Karma was very much the theme
of Season 3 and from the start the entire roster of guests seemed to be dealing
with darker issues than White's been willing to explore. From Rick's struggles
with facing his past, the Ratliff's spending their week unplugged, all but the
pater familias aware of what was facing them at home – and medicating himself and
planning suicide as an alternative, to the 'blonde blobs' trying to face whether
their friendship had anything in common after twenty years, to the two holdovers
from Season 1 facing their pasts and very much learning from it – though not
always in the best way. Led yet again by a super ensemble case, this show
deservedly took Best Ensemble in a Cable Drama at the Astras and received 23
Emmy nominations, second of all series in this category. It could pull off an
upset. And it does have a great track record at award shows. Con: There's
really nothing working against The White Lotus this year – there's just
the feeling that other shows will prevail.
My Prediction: I think momentum is
building for The Pitt but I'm not sure that will be enough to keep Severance
from triumphing. We might know for sure after the Creative Arts Awards.
Tomorrow I'll deal with Outstanding
Lead Actor in a Drama with five incredible contenders that are going to be a
nightmare for the Emmys to choose a winner.
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