Friday, August 22, 2025

My Predictions for the 2025 Emmys: Outstanding Supporting Actress in A Comedy Et Al

 

 

This year's collection of nominees can't compete with the level of marquis names that were present last year (Meryl Streep wasn't nominated; Carol Burnett is ineligible) but this field is in its own way just as remarkable, if not more so.

As with Outstanding Lead Actress, this category is all majority-minority which is even more impressive considering it has seven nominees. Four of them were nominated last year but if you've seen their work – and I have – no one would dare argue this is laziness on the Emmys part. We also have another comedy icon to make up for the absence of Burnett this year as well as another undervalued genius. On the surface this should be an ultra-competitive race, except as with almost every other category there's an overwhelming favorite. Problem is, she was an overwhelming favorite last year too but… We'll get to that.

 

Liza Colon-Zayas, The Bear. For Playing: Tina, the new sous chef at The Bear. Pro: Of all the actors this season, the only one who managed to get through Season 3 with her reputation unblemished was Colon-Zayas: she was the sole acting nominee for the show at the Critics Choice Awards. And the reason was because she was the center of the one unquestioned masterpiece of Season 3: 'Napkins' in which we finally learned how she met Mikey and got her job at the sandwich shop years earlier. The sole episode nominated for directing and writing this year, Colon-Zayas revealed the emotional depth and inner kindness we've always seen in her and that we see could be reached in the start, demonstrating why her work is the beating heart of the show. Con: Let's not kid ourselves: the moment Colon-Zayas managed her surprise win last year, the true backlash against The Bear really begun and has never truly gone away. Much as I love Colon-Zayas she would have been at the bottom of my choices to win that year had Einbinder lost. Even given the Emmys capacity to let history repeat itself, I'm relatively certain they're not going to let lightning strike twice here.

 

Hannah Einbinder, Hacks EXPERTS PICK, MY PICK. For Playing: Ava the head writer for a new late night show, coming into more conflict then ever before. Pro: For Einbinder and myself, this is déjà vu all over again. Last year she was the favorite in this category too and the moment that Liza Colon-Zayas became the surprise winner there was outrage, particularly from Einbinder's mother who argued 'The Bear is not a comedy' in minutes. Larraine Newman is wrong about The Bear (at least that season) but she was more than right to be outraged. Einbinder has by this point won almost every award but the Emmy for her work: three Astras, last year winning at the Critics Choice Awards, two Dorian Awards (including this year) and she's once again the overwhelming favorite. And she is more than overdue a win in this category as each season she keeps getting better. This was just as true in Season 4, after she spent most of the year in open conflict with Deb, first having blackmailed her to get the job she wanted, then openly combatting with her about the direction of the show in the inevitable conflict between art vs. conflict. The final two episodes once again showed Einbinder at the top of the game, as she lost her job, watched Deb resign and then in the finale face the very real possibility that Deb might be gone. I suspect it is that finale that will finally push Einbinder over the top and at this point, it's really getting hard to deny her. Con: There is the possibility that Einbinder's politics, occasionally controversial, might spill over into working against her along with one more real issue that I'll get to below.

Kathryn Hahn, The Studio. For Playing: Maya Mason, the head of publicity at Continental Studio. Pro: Okay this totally makes up for Hahn being ignored for Agatha All Along. For the first time in a long time we see Hahn back into the kind of wild comedy that we've seen her demonstrate to such affect in Parks & Rec and the Bad Moms franchise. Playing Maya, the character who knows what great for box office and how movies work (something that annoys the hell out of Mike) Hahn is looser and far less restrained than she's been on Peak TV in a while. Whether she's mocking the idea of how to pronounce Steve Buscemi's name (while acknowledged she'd love to screw him) trying to figure out the money shot for a horror film about diarrhea or wondering about whether there's something racist about Ice Cube playing the Kool-Aid man, she is always on, always hysterical, always with the greatest lines. And considering that Hahn has yet to get a win from the Emmys (even though she's been in television far longer than some of the other nominees) she's really due. Con: For whatever reason the buzz in the Supporting Actress category for The Studio seems to have been primarily for her co-stars, and if there is someone in The Studio who'll win in this category it likely won't be Hahn. I have my issues with that, but…as I said  we'll get there.

Janelle James, Abbott Elementary. For Playing: Ava Colman, the principal dealing with increasing new challenges in her tenure. Pro: The general tenor  of Season 4 was 'it was the season of Ava'. And I can't really argue with that. It's not just that James was her usual hysterical, every line out of her mouth wonderful, as always  - we're used to that. No, it was the depth of James's work that was remarkable. We learned more about her family and her conflicted relationship with her father. We saw her take a bullet for her staff to protect them and lose her job. We saw her not only land on her feet but actually thriving away from the principal's office and then somehow the faculty still rallied behind her getting her job back anyway. (That would have been unthinkable in Season 1.) We saw her spend the entire season in a healthy relationship with someone working-class – even more unthinkable. And then in penultimate episode we saw everyone –  the students, the faculty, the local economy, even people we considered her sworn enemies – rally for her getting her job back. James more than deserves a win in this category and I would be fine with her getting it this year. Con: It's a tribute to the overwhelming array of talent in this category every year James has been nominated that every time she lost, it was to someone who was just as good, if not better than here. Hard it is to outshine Ava on Abbott, it is very easy to do so among her fellow nominees and that's likely to happen this year. It's not because she's not incredible, it's that they're just better.

Catherine O'Hara, The Studio. For Playing: Patty Mill, the ousted head of Continental Studios now working as a consultant for the man who fired her. Pro: A normal actress would have waited after leaving the iconic role of Moira Rose that finally won O'Hara her first Emmy at the start of the decade. O'Hara has been everywhere since. This year she is nominated in two different series for two completely different roles. Even those philistines (I'll get to it in next week) who have been degraded Season 2 of The Last of Us never had anything bad to say about O'Hara's incredible work as the therapist of both Joel and Ellie who knew they were both lying to them about how they felt after traumatic events but had no choice but to let them go out into the world. To imagine that O'Hara could play the clearly traumatized, basically drunk and still brilliant performance in The Last of Us and then turn around and play the no-nonsense studio executive here is… pretty much par for the course for this astounding actress, actually. And as someone who has little patience for Matt and either his love of film or his business ethic, she's a pleasure to watch. Her victory for Best Supporting Actress at the Astras shows just how well she has and why she's rising in the odds as the most likely candidate to upset Einbinder. Con: Of the three female regulars in the cast (Hahn, O'Hara and Chase Sui Wonders) O'Hara has appeared in the fewest episodes and has significant less screen time then her co-stars. (She basically disappears for four episodes after The Note'.) I'm not saying that O'Hara isn't brilliant when she's onscreen but my personal preference would be for Hahn. Throw in the fact that O'Hara has an Emmy already and it's a lot harder to argue she deserves to win again this quickly.

 

Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary. For Playing: Barbara, trying to settle into new patterns at Abbott. Pro: There weren't a lot of significant storylines for Barbara the same way there were quite a few other cast members this year: she just went on being the usual quiet tower of strength viewers have loved of her ever since the series began. We saw her trying to deal with new traditions with Melissa, saw her building her friendship with Ava, saw her having a Christmas dinner, saw her try to learn how to teach music part time. Ralph's work has never been as showy as some of her other extraordinary co-stars, but that's where a lot of the humor comes in. She tries to find a way for her methods to work in the new generation, tries to serve as a mentor to those who want it, deals with the fact she's getting older. That's why we love Barb and that's why she's the beating heart of the show. Con: Ralph has by this point gotten more than her share of recognition from the Emmys and other awards shows. I have no problem with her winning again but I think like the character she plays, Ralph is fine with new faces sharing the spotlight.

Jessica Williams, Shrinking. For Playing: Gaby, facing new challenges in her home life along with work life. Pro: Of all the characters on the show this series Gaby was far more professionally stable then before, which meant we got to spend this season dealing with her backstory. We spent much of the season dealing with the complicated relationship she has with both her sister and her mother, seeing progress with one and a back-and-forth with the other. We saw how she keeps putting everyone else's needs first and how that has hurt her over time. We saw her move on from her relationship with Jimmy and into a relationship with a Derek, which was one step forward, two steps back – until the finale when it seemed like everyone was working out. And like everyone else in the cast, every step of the way she was hysterically funny, warm and full of good humor. Williams has been one of my favorite performers since she debuted on The Daily Show and I want her to win someday. Con: I just don't think it'll be this year. Williams did get her second consecutive nomination for two seasons but I'm not convinced its her time anymore than it really is Shrinking's.

 

Prediction: I'm not going to say it this year because I don't want to jinx it. You know what I said above, I'm just not going to say it here.

 

Now to deal with the four other major awards.

 

Guest Actor and Guest Actress in a Comedy.

Jon Bernthal and Jamie Lee Curtis, last year's more than deserving winners, are back but I don't think anyone thinks they'll repeat.

In Guest Actor in a Comedy, it's a question of which guest role on The Studio we'll win. Bryan Cranston is the favorite, but honestly I think he's gotten enough awards from the Emmys at this point. I'm actually going to give the edge for Ron Howard for The Note, which was a comedy classic by any standard. As for Guest Actress, this one goes to Hacks and much as I loved Robby Hoffman I'm going for Dance Mom, aka, Julianne Nicholson.

So that's one apiece there.

Now on to directing and writing.

Writing is for me a no-brainer. Hacks has won in this category two of the three seasons it's been nominated and considering the significance of the episode even before recent events, I think it wins in a landslide. If there's an upset, I don't think it'll come from The Studio but rather Bridget Everett for writing Somebody Somewhere. She managed a win at the TCA for Outstanding Comedic Performance this week over the performers in Hacks and The Studio. She wasn't nominated for acting but given the love for the project among critics the Emmys might honor it here. I don't think they will but they might.

As for directing I think this one does to 'The Oner' for The Studio. I know it’s a gimmick but its one that the director's branch goes in for. And lest we forget Christopher Storer did win only Emmy for direction for 'Review' which used the exact same gimmick in the show's first season.

Overall I think we will see a scenario much like last year: The Studio will more Emmys overall but Hacks will win the big prize.

 

Next week, I start dealing with Drama which started looking like a runaway and may be getting closer by the minute.

 

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