Wednesday, August 27, 2025

My Predictions for the 2025 Emmys: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama

 

This one there is no suspense over. Ever since January one actress has been absolutely dominating the award season and there is absolutely nothing that is likely to stand in her way. While I acknowledge my favorite in this category prior to the nominations has somehow been excluded, even I admit she would have had no chance against the front-runner. It doesn't make this group of contenders any less formidable but it's hard to argue that there isn't a deserving winner.

 

Kathy Bates, Matlock. EXPERTS PICK, MY PICK. For Playing: Madeline Matlock, a seventy five year old associate working with a mission to bring the truth to light at a New York City law firm. Pro: Ever since she surprised even herself with an upset win at the Critics Choice Awards this January Bates has been winning every Best Actress in a Drama award in the book, from the Astras to the African-American TV Awards. And no one who's watched Bates work on this show can argue that this is an extraordinary performance from one of the greatest actresses in film or television. First this is a performance on every level: Bates is doing a division of work life and home so radical it makes the performance in Severance looked unsubtle. Second, this is a reboot which is more self-aware then most. Usually these kinds of shows are seen as derivative but the entire show with Bates at its head is completely different – and superior in many ways – to the original. And third, it's a network drama. One that has breathed life into the format in the same way that Abbott Elementary has done to the network comedy. Throw in the fact that this may be one of Bates's last professional roles and she deserves the prize. Con: Bates's nomination is the only one Matlock received this year. That's the Emmys flaw more than hers – this show absolutely deserved to be nominated for Best Drama as well the other actors -  but the fact remains it's very difficult for an actor to win if the show their nominated for has no other nominations. The last one was Tatiana Maslany for Orphan Black in 2016.

 

Sharon Horgan, Bad Sisters. For Playing: Eva Garvey, the oldest sister of the Garvey clan dealing with the possibility of another death and exposure for her family. Pro: Like Bella Ramsey and Keri Russell, Horgan managed to earn her second nomination for the second year of her show. And unlike the majority of the performers in Drama altogether Horgan has more to do with the success of Bad Sisters then most actors in TV dramas. In her work as Eva, the eldest sister of the Garvey clan who yet again find themselves at the center of a criminal investigation Horgan gets to show the range we've seen her capable of for nearly fifteen years but until now she's never been recognized for as a performer. Even when you found yourself doubting the believability that the siblings were involved in something this complicated, Horgan's natural power was capable of leading you through the hard points. Like the character she plays, Horgan is a tower of strength. Con: She was also, without question, the actress who's nomination not just in this category but all of the dramatic nominations combined that made most people (myself included) do a double take. There were many more qualified nominees ahead of Horgan for this last spot, not just Melanie Lynskey but Elizabeth Moss for the final season of The Handmaid's Tale or Kaitlin Olson for High Potential. In fact Horgan didn't get a nomination from any of the previous critics groups all year. Throw in the fact that Horgan is the only nominee for her show and she has no realistic chance of even finishing in the money.

 

Britt Lower, Severance. For Playing: Hetty R, living a double life working for Lumen and the daughter of the head of the company. Pro: Lower is given the best chance of any of the nominees in this category for being capable of an upset. And it's hard not to deny the logic. For one thing, like every other cast member of Severance, she's given two different performances – and when we learn the truth about she ended up working at Lumen, it's deeper than that. There's also the fact that she's part of a love triangle (trying to figure out traditional roles is incredibly difficult here) that involves the two sides of every character in a way that hurts the most emotionally. And when you consider the sacrifice that is made at the end of Season 2 that kicks us in the teeth the most, it has all the emotional power of so many veteran actors. Lower deserves to win. Con: But likely not this year. Last time out Lower was one of the few regulars not nominated by the Emmys. I suspect that this nomination is redress but I suspect she will win another season (whenever they happen).

 

Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us. For Playing: Ellie, dealing with her past after the murder of her surrogate father sends her on a quest for revenge to Seattle. Pro: Honestly Ramsey deserves it just for all the abuse they've been forced to endure for the last two years by the misogynistic fanbase of the original game. I'm also in Ramsey's favor because even though they identify as non-binary, they've made it very clear that they're fine being nominated in this category because "I respect women." And that's before I get to  Ramsey's performance, which on every level was magnificent. As we saw Ellie struggle with the awkwardness of her relationship with Joel in the early episodes, saw her witness him being killed in front of her eyes, go on a blind quest for vengeance with Dina, saw the love story erupt in the aftermath of the apocalypse, saw through a story of birthdays how Joel and Ellie's relationship changed, and then in the season finale saw how broken she truly was, Ramsey demonstrated why they are a performer for the ages. Ramsey will win in this category someday. Con: The Emmys have never been guided by the backlash on the internet when it comes to bigotry, and that's going to be true this year as well as anything else. But Ramsey is by far the youngest nominee in this category. They will have to wait their turn.

 

Keri Russell, The Diplomat. For Playing: Kate Wyler, ambassador to London dealing with the likelihood the Prime Minister is behind a terrorist plot. Pro: Russell is the only repeat nominee in this category from last year and remains the force of nature she's been since she exploded on to the scene way back in Felicity. Here she plays an utterly brilliant professional trying to deal with problems on multiple fronts: her husband barely surviving a car bomb, the fact that her government is conspiring with Britain on a terrorist plot, learning the vice president – who's job she's been being groomed for since the start of the series – is behind it, only moments before she becomes President herself. She does so with a kind of brusque humor and bluntness that is built towards service, rare on TV these days. And considering that she hasn't won an Emmy despite starring in three underrated classics – this one, Felicity and The Americans – she is more than overdue a win. Con: Just like Gary Oldman with Slow Horses Russell is starring in a quietly undervalued show and that's almost certainly not the thing that Emmy voters pay attention to. She might win later on, but not this year.

 

My Prediction: I hope the orchestra at the Emmys remember which version of the Matlock theme music to play when Bates wins.

 

Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama, the only nomination in this category that the Experts are not sure about and that they might have reason to be.

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