Friday, August 29, 2025

My Predictions for the 2025 Emmys: Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama et al

 

I will be honest; this is a tough category for me. Three of the most underrated actresses in TV history are competed for the Emmys. Six of the seven performances are unvarnished masterpieces, and while the Emmys did go slightly crazy for The White Lotus, at least they nominated the four performances I think deserved it the most.

And unlike every other category we have no awards show to guide us. The Astras gave Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama to Isabella Merced for The Last of Us and inexplicably the Emmys didn't nominate her. Not that previous awards are always the best benchmark to guide us as to what the Emmys will do but this is the first time in at least five years that we have nothing to help us. That's why I think the 'Experts Pick' is built more on sand than any other of the other awards in any nominee for the Emmys in any major category.

So with that in mind let's go.

 

Patricia Arquette, Severance. For Playing: Harmony Cobel, one of the major executives at Lumon, keeping an eye on them off work. Pro: Arquette has been the key representative of the threat that the company represents both at work and outside. As the second season unfolded we saw the alliances she was going to have to make to make sure Cold Harbor came off and just how difficult it would be to keep her front layered. It's a dark and menacing performance that is more than worthy of praise. Con: This year Arquette's work was overshadowed by Dichen Lachman who most viewers thought was more likely to get a nomination in this category than Arquette. It's possible institutional memory may have worked more in Arquette's favor then her actual performance. Setting that aside, of all the acting nominees from Severance in any category, this is the one where it is least likely for someone to win according to Gold Derby and I'm inclined to agree.

Carrie Coon, The White Lotus. (EXPERTS PICK, MY PICK) For Playing: Laurie, one of three friends on a vacation to reconnect in Bangkok. Pro: Coon hasn't been as active in Peak TV as long as Walton Goggins but she has been just as underrecognized from the Emmys. She was ignored for her critically acclaimed work on The Leftovers, got nothing for her work on the second season of Sinners and lost for her work in Fargo (though that was a tough category) The Emmys has been making up for it in a big way recently. Coon is actually nominated for the second straight year, albeit for a different series and there is no doubt she will be back next year for the third season of The Gilded Age. There's an excellent chance that latter show may boost her chances of winning this year but honestly there's an argument she could have won just as easily on her own. As part of the 'blonde blob', Laurie seemed on the outside looking in and of the trio she seemed to be very much a victim of the maneuvers of her friends. It looked very much by the penultimate episode that this was going to be another story of how a stay at the resort lays bare the fractures in a solid relationship. But in what was almost certainly the episode she submitted for consideration Coon delivers an incredible monologue in which she lays her soul bare in a way we've never seen on the show to this point, telling us that for all her unhappiness and sorrows, she really needs them and cares for them. It's honest and real in a way the show rarely is and it moved Coon into the forefront of contention just then. I want her to win badly and I hope this is the first Emmy of many for her. Con: The only real thing working against Coon is the fact this is a raw emotional moment that goes against most of what White has done on the series. That's not a flaw; it's just an uncomfortable truth.

Katherine La Nasa, The Pitt. For Playing: Nurse Dana Evans, the head of an underfunded ER. Pro: It didn't take many episodes for me to realize that Dana was the beating heart of the ER the one who was holding this place together with the sheer force of her personality. And then when she took a punch to the face that broke her nose and blacked her eyes, we saw that, like basically everyone else here, it was all just a front. She managed to hold it together for the rest of the shift but by the end of it, it really seemed like she had completely broken down and was leaving for good. It's now clear that was a blind alley but you could tell after the day was over – and until the final hours, you could argue it was a light day – that this was the burden of years of pressure. LaNassa has been rising in the odds to possibly upset Coon in this category and I wouldn't be upset if it happened. Con: LaNasa's chance of victory depends if the nominees in The White Lotus split the vote sufficiently so that she can triumph. That is possible in this category but honestly it's a remote one.

Julianne Nicholson, Paradise. For Playing: Sinatra, the woman who built Paradise and is determined to keep order maintain in the wake of the murder of the President. Pro: Nicholson has been gifted at playing characters with an icy professional front on television since her recurring role on Boardwalk Empire but she's rarely had the chance to flex those muscles here. We see the story of the woman who saw the future and was determined to build a city to save the world, who was willing to be the woman in power, the women who would kill to keep her secret. In the season finale she came to realize very much that she was a monster and while her fate is uncertain, the majesty of her work is not. The fact that she gave this performance and the polar opposite of it in Hacks and was nominated for both roles shows what a master of acting she is. Like Coon and Parker Posey, the Emmys have only recently started to catch up to giving her the recognition she deserves. Personally, she's my favorite. Con: Just as with James Marsden in the previous category Nicholson's nomination came as a shock to many (though again, not to me). More pertinently Nicholson has won fairly recently for her work in Mare of Easttown and she very well may win for her work in Hacks next week. I think the nomination will stand as enough.

Parker Posey, The White Lotus. For Playing: Victoria Ratliff, on vacation with her family and not the least happy about it. Pro: Whenever the story got too dark this season you could count on Posey's ugly American behavior to make us laugh hysterically. Posey has been a force in movies and TV for a long time and the Emmys honestly owe her even more than they owe Coon. Almost every line out of Victoria was hysterical, as she wondered who took her Lorazepam but never looked at her husband, was horrified by her daughter's decision to become a Buddhist, straight-faced told her desperate spouse that she couldn't think of living being poor (not knowing he was considering that very option) and being so clueless and detached from reality she had no idea what her husband was going through and everything her children were doing when they were out of sight. Her hysterical oblivion to everything was a fallback to so many of the great comic performances on this show from Jennifer Coolidge in Season 1 and Meghann Fahy in Season 2. In this case, the brunette had the most fun – at least until they got on the boat back. Con: There can be only one and we know who it will probably be.

Natasha Rothwell, The White Lotus. For Playing: Belinda, a guest instead of staff who finds herself encountering the past in the worst possible way. Pro: In Season 3 Rothwell's return made it clear that this show was still a drama rather than an anthology. Rothwell received her second nomination for The White Lotus, joining previous winner Jennifer Coolidge who managed to overcome the odd in 2023. What was fascinating about Belinda this time was seeing the no-nonsense staffer who had her head on her shoulders in Season 1 unchanged but that didn't seem to be a problem – until she saw that she wasn't the only familiar face. As she realized just how potentially terrible this could be, she and her son also saw an opportunity to get something every guest had but she didn't. There's an argument that Belinda 'won' the third season of this show the same way she managed to 'win' Season 1: she's certainly managed to survive. Con: First of all, Rothwell lost in this category when the show was a Limited Series. Second, many fans of her character in Season 1 were disappointed when her final actions mirrored the situation she'd been in with Tanya back in Season 1. I'd argue she learned her lesson and deserve what she got. But I'm not sure that will be enough to convince the voters to do so.

Aimee Lou Wood, The White Lotus. For Playing: Chelsea, the girlfriend of Rick who cares for him more than he does and believes in the goodness of people. Pro: I had some issues with even the idea of Wood being nominated coming into watching this series that had nothing to do with her performance. Now having seen the third season, I have changed my mind. Chelsea was a new character for the show: someone who came in with an unguarded sense of belief towards her love for Rick, even when it wasn't returned. Someone who believed in him even when he didn't, who was faithful to him even when she had other opportunities, who had a clear perspective of so many of the other guests (particularly the Ratliff boys) that not even they did. In the world of cynicism that hangs over this show (and let's face it, television today) Chelsea was practically a unicorn and that made her fate in the final episode of the series all the more tragic as she became the first person to die in the show's history who was a completely innocent bystander. Wood's work was moving in a way most of this show has never been. Con: What may push Wood over the top is the fact that dying on The White Lotus has always gotten nominees an Emmy. Otherwise, if someone in this category wins, it's probably going to be Coon.

 

MY PREDICTION: Barring an upset by LaNasa look for Coon to get her first Emmy. The second will come sooner than that.

 

Now to deal with the other major awards.

 

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA

At the Astras Jeffrey Wright deservedly prevailed for his work in The Last of Us. I think there's an excellent chance he will here though there is a possibility that Shawn Hatosy will win for The Pitt. My sentiment is for Scott Glenn for The White Lotus but I think Wright wins.

 

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA

This one's easy. Kaitlyn Dever takes it for her work in The Last Of Us. It's not just it was a great performance; she's been an owed an Emmy at least since Unbelievable.

 

BEST DIRECTING AND WRITING IN  A DRAMA

The predictions are that Severance wins in both categories. I'm inclined to believe that will happen for direction but I'm less sure about writing. After all, Shogun was the overwhelming favorite in that category last year and Slow Horses managed to win. I think it could just as easily happen this year as well.

 

That wraps up drama. Next week, I'll finish up with Limited Series. I know what most of the winners will be and I'm not thrilled with all of them even though everyone else is.

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