My Predictions for the 2025 Emmys, Week 1, Day 1: Outstanding Comedy Series

 

 

After two Emmys in one calendar year we are back to the regular scheduled way of giving awards. In less than one month's time, the 2025 Emmys will air on CBS. And it's clear this time around that there are far fewer certainties across many categories then there were last year.

My approach will essentially be the same as it has been for the last several years but with one critical difference. Ever since 2018 I have relied on Gold Derby, the quintessential website for all awards shows to help me figure out the official odds for each nominee in every major category. For reasons that I can't fully comprehend yet (and may opine on in a different series) in the summer of 2025 they have shifted from that format to a percentage one, giving the nominee they think has the greatest chance of winning.

Because there is only so far I'm willing to follow this site down, I'm going to essentially ignore the percentages. Instead in each category I will highlight 'The Experts' favorite as well as 'My Favorite'. There likely will be overlap in more than a few categories but that was true when there were odds. The rest of my format is unchanged. For each nominee I will list the pros and the cons as to why they should win as well as any awards each nominee might have won during the last year as well as an x-factor that might be a reason they should win. Then I will give an official prediction.

As with last year, I'll begin with comedy.

 

OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES

Abbott Elementary (ABC): Pro: This is the series that basically single-handed revived the network comedy and has become the first unquestioned classic TV show of the 2020s. And at this point it's almost impossible to find a person who doesn't love it. If anything, it's become more pertinent in the last season then it every was, particularly given the most recent attacks on education on every level, something Quinta Brunson and her writers have always been aware of but that she almost never preaches about. The reason this show works is because it is a sublime and hysterical tribute to the workplace, urban and blue collar roots of America in every member of its cast, always laughs with the characters never at them, and is always willing to show that every character on this series has layers. We saw this in Season 4 as we delved the deepest yet in every character, particularly Ava's backstory which made her seem even more layered. We also got to see for the first time just how much the school touches the lives of everyone in it, not just the students (who demonstrated their love for the faculty in the last two episodes) but the surrounding community when it rallied for Ava. And the show continued to find ways to amaze us by crossing over with the show that is it's polar opposite in terms of humor, It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia, added to its cavalcade of guest stars and finally showed that Gregory and Janine could be happy. Who can't love this school? Con: It seems to be the fate of this comedy, much like the faculty of the title institution, to perpetually be overshone by brighter stars. After the 2023 Emmys completely gave everything to The Bear, it's thunder would seem to have been stolen. Perhaps it will return someday, but not this year.

 

The Bear (FX on Hulu) Pro: As Carmy and the gang began to work with the Bear as its new restaurant Christopher Storer began to dive deeper into the heads and hearts of everyone involved. This was shown most brilliantly in the now class 'Napkins' episode as well as how Sugar came to realize just how traumatic her family was and chose to break the cycle with her mother. As The Bear faces new traumas it comes to reach new heights of brilliance. Con: The backlash against The Bear began almost the moment the third season dropped and by this point the debate about whether the show was a comedy was increasingly overpowering its quality. When Hacks upset The Bear for Best Comedy last September, it began to reach a frenzy and by the time of the end of year award it had reached a fury. The show that had dominated every single awards show from the start of 2024 until that year was suddenly losing everything in sight to Hacks and when it was nominated for thirteen Emmys – less then half than it got the previous year – it was clear to Hollywood it's moment had passed. Not even an improved fourth season is likely to cause the Emmys to say 'YES, Chef!" to it this year or perhaps ever again.

 

Hacks (HBO MAX) (My Favorite) Pro: The moment Catherine O'Hara announced that Season 3 had prevailed at the climax of last September's Emmys, the shockwaves have been rippling through the awards circuit. Suddenly Hacks was winning everything in sight, taking the Golden Globe and Critics Choice for Best Comedy, prevailing at all but one critical guild award and establishing itself as the out-and-out favorite to repeat in this category before Season 4 even dropped. And Season 4 more than lived up to the hype. As Deb and Ava took over late night with a network mandate to make the show a hit or late Night would be dead, the series started with our two leads more divided then they've ever been do to the most ruthless act Ava did. The conflict continued as the two disagreed in the direction of the show with the conflict between art and commerce ranging all season until the penultimate episode when a behind-the-scenes action caused Ava to be fired – and Deb to give up everything she ever loved. Considering recent events I'd argue that gives another motivation for the Academy to vote for it this year – aside from the fact, it's still just as brilliantly blissfully funny as it's always been, with an ever bigger guest cast (Julianne Nicholson!) and an excuse for more cameos than we've had yet. I don't think anything can stop it. Con: There's really nothing working against Hacks this years except well, we'll get there.

 

Only Murders in the Building (Hulu) Pro: When it became the upset winner at the SAG Awards for Best Comedic Ensemble a stunned Selena Gomez accepted by saying: "But we never win anything!" And honestly that's a bigger crime than all of the murders that takes place at the Arconia over four seasons and will to come. This has been one of the great gems of television since it debuted way back in 2021, another delight in which Charles, Oliver and Mabel try to solve a murder while things just get weirder. This season as the podcast was being filmed they were shadowed by their screen counterparts (Eugene Levy, Zack Gallifinakis and Eva Longoria) as they tried to solve the murder of Charles's double while making a big budget film. Like so many of the other comedies in this group, this is about the most unlikely of bonds between generations and watching two of the greatest comedians of all time working with Selena Gomez (why hasn't she been nominated this year) to produce a wondrous joy. Con: Maybe it's just the fact that extraordinary, warm and funny comedy shows are debuting every other week that makes Only Murders seem so underappreciated by the Emmys. Looking at the field this year and indeed all three years past, it's hard to argue with the majority of the winners in every category. I want it to win something, I just don't think it will happen this year.

 

Nobody Wants This (Netflix) Pro: At the start of awards season last year, this warm funny love story between a really sex-positive podcaster and the hottest rabbi we've ever met had a lot of awards buzz to it. The show was nominated for Best Comedy Series by the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and SAG Awards and its two leads have been nominated for every acting award since. It's hard not to see why. This is another one of those charming, friendly comedy series that also happens to be the most realistic portrayal of Judaism and its family unit I've seen since watching Rebecca in Crazy Ex-Girlfriend. It stars two of the greatest young actors in the history of television, Kristin Bell and Adam Brody, where charm and chemistry radiates off them whether they're at a sex toy or a Jewish day camp. And they're more than amply supporting by  a wonderful group of comic actors, particularly Timothy Simons and Justine Lupe as they play the respective siblings who know they'll never be the favorites in their family. To be clear, the joke is the Emmys do want this and I suspect we'll be seeing a lot of it here this year. Con: Unfortunately, this show did the poorest of the eight nominees in this category with merely three total nominations. (All of them choice as you'll see, though.) That's probably not going to be enough to get it in this year.

 

Shrinking (Apple TV) Pro: The second straight gem to come from Bill Lawrence's collaboration with Apple Shrinking is a lot closer to the kind of comedy we knew him for before the world discovered him with Ted Lasso. The story of how Jimmy is recovering from the trauma of losing his wife reached new heights in Season 2 as Louis, the hit-and-run driver who killed his wife last year came back into their lives. We spent most of the season watching Jimmy deal – or not deal – with the repercussion from it and we also saw so much of the wonderful village around him grow and change. This is by far the best comic cast of any of the eight shows that are nominated this year, and I don't say that lightly. Every single actor is dealing with both humor and trauma and dealing with it in the very human way we all must do. The show has been slowly but surely getting its due after mostly being ignored by the Emmys for its first season , being nominated for the SAG Award for Best Comic Ensemble, receiving nominations and awards from almost every group in Hollywood and in the biggest surprise of all, winning Best Cast Ensemble from the Astras this year, beating most of the nominees in this series. It's going to be a contender for years to come. Con: The biggest thing working against it is it's not the most prominent nominee from its own streaming service. See below.

 

The Studio (Apple TV) EXPERTS PICK. Pro: Like so many of the kinds of productions that Continental makes as well as the films that Mike Resnick privately celebrates, this show had buzz from the moment it debuted. And unlike many of those films, it's more than lived up to the hype. Seth Rogen has produced, co-directed, co-written and plays the leading role in arguably the most cinematic comedy series in a very long time, one that is in love with the business of Hollywood with all of the ugly parts well in. He has ensembled one of the finest groups of ensemble players to work with him and a must be seen to be believed guest cast of actors and directors playing themselves – or more likely the absolutely worst version of themselves. This is a show that loves its subject matter as much as Mike does and is as frustrated by its flaws as much as everyone else around Mike is. It is one of the great joys to watch, a pleasure that shows its love all over the screen. It has already won quite a few awards for Best Comedy: The Gotham TV Awards gave it its top prize and it was the biggest comedy winner at the Astras last year, winning Outstanding Comedy Series. It has received 23 Emmy nominations, the most of any comedy in this category and that would make it the overwhelming favorite. Con: Need I remind everyone that we've been in this exact situation last year and we all saw what happened? Those who don't learn from history…

 

What We Do In The Shadows (FX) Pro: One of the most beloved comedy series in recent years aired its final season this past fall. The rare spinoff of a source material that was both completely loyal to it and expanded from it has become one of the most enjoyed and respected comedy series of all time. It ended as a poke in the ribs to that genre by reminded us that for these immortals nothing has really changed: it only seems to be an ending for the viewer. The show has been poking fun at so many genre in these comedies, the idea of vampires, humanity and the mockumentary genre itself. It may not be immortal but it's close to it. Unfortunately despite all the Emmy nominations and awards its gotten from other groups like the Astras that has never reflected as love by the Academy. It looks likely to have the same fate of so many other FX classics over the years; respected and deeply loved  by critics and fans but never given the top prize.

 

Prediction: I think recent history is on Hacks side. It paid tribute to LA after the fires during Season 4 and given everything that is currently happening in Late Night right now, I suspect the Emmys may have realized how important it is. Throw in the fact that it was getting most of the awards buzz prior to the Emmys, I think it will prevail over The Studio. As you'll see however, most of the awards that will follow are likely to be divided between them.

 

Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy. Is it closer than it appears?