Tuesday, June 13, 2023

My Predictions (And Hopes) For This Year's Emmy Nominations, Week 1, Day 2: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama

 

It looked at the beginning of the year like Kevin Costner would be a major contender in this category but his absence from the Golden Globes and the subsequent controversy and cancellation of Yellowstone has almost certainly done in any chance he had of winning or even being nominated

It is likely that at least two actors from Succession will be here, but I can’t in good conscience advocate for Brian Cox. He only appeared in four episodes this year, which in my opinion is not enough to qualify him as Lead Actor. I’m willing to make some accommodations for actors in series I haven’t seen, but not all of them. The seven nominees I will list are an acceptance of reality as well as speculation.

 

Jeff Bridges, The Old Man

In another year Bridges would be the obvious favorite to win in this category, but since alone among my selections he is certain to get another bite at the apple, I think the nomination will suffice. He has been nominated in every major awards group for Best Actor in every major awards group that has met so far this season and deservedly so. It’s not just the incredible work he does as the elderly former spook who so many killers keep underestimating, it’s his ability to easily call upon alternative identities when he needs too, manage to persuade a woman he’s abducted that she needs to trust him, and to launch himself again and again into danger that he has himself does not think he has any real chance of surviving. Bridges’ character is not the Old Man in the title (I actually hope Joel Grey can manage an Emmy nomination of his own) but the character he plays is the one that we all relate to above all us. We disregard him at our own risk.

Kieran Culkin, Succession

Even when I had horrible problems with Succession, I never truly had one with the work of Culkin as Roman, the youngest and by far the most troubled son of the Roy siblings. He was the subject of merciless beating and abuse by Logan, but there was a part of him so desperate for love that he was still willing to try and find even before his father died. Of the three children, he spent much of the final season more broken then the rest of them. In the last two episodes, you saw a man so utterly destroyed he was willing to take abuse and a beating from a mob because there was a part of him who wanted punishment. He spent the series finale barely holding it together, trying to accept that he was never going to get what he wanted but utterly broken throughout. Even his fight with Kendall at the end was someone who could barely put up the effort. He admitted at the end that the three of them were truly what their father had said they were and at the end, the most angry Roy child had nothing to say. I honestly think Culkin would have a much better chance of winning if he were to compete in the Best Supporting Actor category, but since that category will be filled with Succession actors – and because he really was a lead in the season – I understand why he allowed it. I’m not going to say he doesn’t deserve it.

Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul

Odenkirk by all accounts should be the odds on favorite to win in this category – he’s already won the Critics Choice for Best Actor and this is a series that has basically been skunked by the Emmys in five previous magnificent seasons. (I don’t argue with the five of the performers  who ended up defeating him in his five previous nominations; the fact that he wasn’t nominated at all one year is a travesty.) And in a way, we saw every version of Saul Goodman in the final season of this series – we saw the last gasps of Jimmy McGill, we saw Saul just at his first introduction to Walter White, we saw him trying to survive as Gene and giving into his nature. And in the final episode of the series, we saw him finally embrace his better angels and get – certainly by the standards of Breaking Bad -  a happy ending. You throw in the fact that Odenkirk almost died filming the final season of Better Call Saul and if the Emmys don’t give him the Best Actor prize this year, that’s a crime so blatant that Saul Goodman could make a meal of it. (Of course, Odenkirk may not be done with the Emmys as I will argue when we get the comedies.)

Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us

This nomination is not just part of recognition of Pascal for being part of what so far is the biggest popular television hit of 2023 but a long overdue recognition for Pascal himself. Pascal has been part of some of the biggest popular hits on television in the last decade – he had recurring roles on The Good Wife and a major arc on Game of Thrones and has been the title character on The Mandalorian and is beloved by millions without even seeing his face for most of it. Now as Joel on The Last of Us he plays a surrogate father to a teenage girl who may be critical to surviving a zombie apocalypse and is an action hero and a human being. He and the remarkable cast have done something no one thought possible before this and effectively turn a video game into something that is truly and utterly art. Pascal deserves the nomination for his body of work and I have no problem with it.

Matthew Rhys, Perry Mason

At this point, it’s hard to argue that Matthew Rhys needs more recognition from the Emmys at this point. He deservedly received three nomination and a Best Actor prize for his incredible work as Philip Jennings, the increasingly reluctant Russian spy on The Americans. (He’s one of the actors who defeated Odenkirk, and I have no problem with that win.) He deservedly got another Best Actor nomination two years ago for this same role and I guess you could say one last one would be superfluous. But anyone who saw the second season of this series knows just how great a performance he gave in it. We saw a man horribly conflicted about the death of the woman he had thrown his life into saving from prison in the first season and utterly without purpose.  A man who, upon learning his clients were guilty, wanted to throw them to the wolves and only kept going out of a sense of obligation. We saw a man becoming  a pariah because of his clients, lashing out at everyone around him, and finally uncovering the truth – and it was uglier than he imagined. And at the end of the season, even though he was going to prison, you saw him at peace in a way you just hadn’t seen in nearly two years.  It is a shame that a series that had so much potential did not get a third season. Rhys deserves one more nod.

Ramon Rodriguez, Will Trent

It’s far more likely that this spot will be filled by Diego Luna for Andor (rest assured, readers, I will review it in due time) but it’s hard to imagine him being a greater performer as Rodriguez in the title role of this magnificent drama.  Will Trent is one of the great characters to come out of 2023 so far and you can never tear your eyes away from this man with his three-piece suit and handkerchief, the man who adopts a Chihuahua in the opening of the series because an orphan won’t let a stray go to a pound, a man who has managed to survive being functionally illiterate to become a brilliant detective, a man who manages to survive physical and emotional scars of his childhood every day. And honestly, his performance in the Season 1 finale, when he finally learned the truth about his mother and the man who murdered, is the kind of tour de force performance that even a decade ago, the Emmys wouldn’t even blink twice at rewarding with a nominations. Perhaps it’s because, alone among these nominees, Will Trent is a hero – a complicated one, but still a hero – and Peak TV has grown tired of recognizes them. Rodriguez demonstrates why we shouldn’t.

Jeremy Strong, Succession

It’s hard to feel any sympathy for Kendall Roy at the end of everything that happened. This is a man who spent his entire life thinking that the only thing he could was be the head of Waystar Royco. It is a tragedy he was deprived of it, but there was never any instant of him deserving it.  That viewer could feel something resembling sympathy for someone so utterly and completely pathetic, who was willing to give America a fascist president so that he could gain an advantage in a merger, a man who showed no love for his wife or children at the end of it, a man whose most loyal follower – his assistant – finally lost patience with him in the penultimate episode, a man who when turned on by his siblings not only lied about killing a man – something we saw happen in the season 1 finale and he confessed to in the Season 3 one – but actually said he wasn’t a real person – is a tribute to just how great an actor Strong is. For the record, he got exactly what he deserved and was entitled too his whole life – nothing. We didn’t see him try to kill himself in the last shot; Kendall Roy has been emotionally dead for years and no hell is worse than the one he’s already in. No, I don’t want him to win an Emmy (he’s got one already) but I’m alright with another nomination for him.

 

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

Skyler Astin, So Help Me Todd

I don’t know if So Help Me Todd qualifies as a drama under the parameters of Emmy voting: it is so laugh-out loud funny at times it might very well be better served to be nominated as a comedy. (It worked out better for Shameless in its later seasons.) And certainly Astin is far more known for his brilliant comic portrayals in Crazy Ex-Girlfriend and Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist.  But so much of what goes on Todd deals with such deadly serious things – this is a legal drama and much of the cases do deal with life or death matters – that I’m listing it here for this purpose. What I know for show is that Astin is incredible in this series and has had one of the most remarkable arcs of any character in the 2022-2023 season. He is, at his core, still something of a hot mess but its been entertaining watching him get to the point where we love watching him manage to con and reason in a way that few characters on TV have. I haven’t enjoyed watching a protagonist command the scenes this way since the early days of The Blacklist, and I think there’s something to be said for Astin getting recognition he’s been overdue for a while. It might be smarter to push for Dominic West for The Crown  or any of the leads on A Million Little Things, but Astin’s the one I want to see get recognized.

Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama. I know, it’s going to be complicated this year.

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