My Predictions (And Hopes) For This Year's Emmy Nominations, Week 1, Day 2: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama

 

This race is wide open in a way it has not been in at least six or seven years. Zendaya, who has won two previous Emmys for Euphoria (ick) is not eligible, but she took the grand prize from the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice.  The SAG award for Best Actress went to Jennifer Coolidge, who will be competing in the Best Supporting Actress category (we’ll get to that later.)

Bookending Zendaya’s first win are two actresses from The Crown: Claire Foy in 2019 and Olivia Colman in 2021. Imelda Staunton is by far the most certain nominee to appear in this category but neither Foy nor Colman won in their first year of eligibility. Previous nominees such as Laura Linney and Mandy Moore’s series are over, Evan Rachel Wood’s likelihood for a nomination was pretty much cancelled after Westworld was and while Elisabeth Moss is still considered a favorite for Handmaid’s Tale, that series seems to have basically died from overexposure. (No one thinks it will contend the way it did in previous years.

I am therefore making my predictions based on several that seem likely and a couple that are genuine longshots. I refuse to acknowledge House of The Dragon and I admit Emma D’Arcy will likely be a presence based on previous awards cycles. The rest, well, let’s see.

 

Christine Baranski, The Good Fight

For six incredible seasons, Baranski has portrayed Diane Lockhart, the trailblazing feminist attorney practicing law in a world that mirrors and somehow is even worse than the one we currently live. She has been dramatic, hysterical, frightening and every bit as remarkable as she was on The Good Wife. And for five frustrating seasons, the Emmys have remained as immune to nominating her or any element of this series just as they spent the last five years The Good Wife was on the air telling us that Downton Abbey was by far the better series. Now as Baranski says goodbye to one of the most iconic characters in television history, is it asking too much for the Emmys to give her a nomination for her as this franchise ends up departing Paramount plus? (And if they do, we can always wait until The Gilded Age returns and she gets another chance to get nominated, working for the man who created Downton Abbey.)

Juliette Lewis, Yellowjackets

The question at this point is how many of the astonishing actresses from Yellowjackets are going to be among the likely contenders for Best Actress in a Drama. One could make an argument for Tammy Cypress or the impressive Sophie Nelisse who plays a young Shauna. (The old Shauna, to be sure, is going to be here.) But I was more than willing to accommodate Juliette Lewis before this season began and I sure as hell am arguing for her now. Some people argued that the adult Natalie was muted in a way she wasn’t in the first season where Lewis absolutely burned the place down. I didn’t see it that way. Lewis played Natalie as someone desperately trying to find a direction forward, looking for someone to blame. Finally she seemed to latch on to her sobriety and Lotte as her guiding star. But the darkness that she finally acknowledged was in her in one of the darkest moments in the series so far finally came to much for her.  When she became the accidental victim of Misty poisoning in the shocking season finale, part of me really thought that she did so deliberately: that she’s been looking for peace all this time and she finally found it. It was absolutely heartbreaking watching Natalie meet her end this season; the least the Emmys can do is give her a nomination as her swan song.

Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets

You was robbed, Shauna. I was absolutely certain of that when Zendaya took the Emmy from you last season after you took the Critics Choice and the HCA prize for Best Actress in a Drama. You are the only eligible nominee this year who is likely to return this year. Skip likely. Certain. Anyone who watches Lynskey played the beleaguered Shauna, still trying to recovering from accidentally killing Adam last year and doing a terrible job at covering up (seriously guys, listen to Misty!) and who seems to be doing everything in her power to demonstrate how broken she is, whether its putting a gun on a carjacker, threatening a chop shop owner (that monologue on skinning a person will make a hell of a nomination clip) her way of trying to convince her daughter that she’s not a murderer, but she is, her feeble ways of covering things up, her repeated admissions as to what a bad mother she is to people who don’t believe her, and the horrible moment in the season finale when she ends up being the subject of a childhood nightmare that she can not believe would happen. You don’t know things can get worse for Shauna, but you know that when you watch Lynskey it’ll fun seeing it happen. Please give her the Emmy this year.

Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us

I realize that Ramsey is in a position they do not want to be in considering how they identify, but I appreciate the grace that they are showing by competing in this category. (The concept of dividing performances by gender identity now seems more relevant than ever.) But few who saw Ramsey’s performance as Ellie, a woman trekking across a zombie decimated America with the possibility of a cure in their brain, can denied Ramsey power as a performer. Ramsey has already had been nominated as a breakthrough performer in the MTV Awards and won more than a few for it. Like Pascal, Ramsey has been linked to Game of Thrones and had a critical role in His Dark Materials and Becoming Elizabeth – and they haven’t even turned twenty yet. Ramsey is a lock for a nomination and while they will not win some day they shall.

Sarah Snook, Succession

Probably Snook would have been a lock for Best Supporting Actress had she decided to compete in this category this year: she’s already won both the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice awards for it last year and she would have been a better choice that Julia Garner, who had already won twice.  But I’m not going to question how brilliant a performance she gives as Shiv, the sibling whose marriage has been collapsing between seasons, who directed her wrath on Logan for his abuse, whose reaction to his death was the most honest, who spent much of the season trying to decide who she wants to be with, who had the marital fight to end all marriages, who realizes just how horrible things when the election ends, who lost the CEO job at Waystar because the head of GoJo wants to sleep with her, and who at the last minute finally realized just how horrible her brother – and by extension, her family -truly were. She now faces the worst possible fate at the end of this series, pregnant and trapped in an empty marriage. I’m not going to say I want to Snook to win, but she sure as hell deserves the nomination.

Imelda Staunton, The Crown

It is always fascinating to see how each new actress who takes on the role of Elizabeth brings their own nuances to it. Claire Foy would show youth and energy that would be twisted by the pragmatism of the old guard; Olivia Colman played a parent increasingly becoming out of touch with both the nation – and her children. Staunton now completes the circle as a matriarch who is far more symbol than an actual person, someone so detached from the world that exists that her family is now afraid of telling her bad news, someone who can not accept the truth about the heir apparent or how Diana represents a world she does not recognize.  Staunton has been in the background of the great British Character actresses since Shakespeare in Love and had her best chance at mass acceptance for Vera Drake robbed from her by Hilary Swank in 2004.  Now she will certainly receive the recognition she has long been due by the public even as the series starts to reassess just how good an influence Elizabeth truly was.

Hilary Swank, Alaska Daily

Giving a nomination for the lead performer of a series that has just been cancelled after one season is something the Emmys haven’t done in a very long time. (The last time may have been Andre Braugher for Gideon’s Crossing.) But Swank was nominated for a Golden Globe, the first time an actress had been nominated in that category since Taraji P. Henson and that may be enough of a motivation to push her forward. Swank’s work was one of the best performances of 2022: it’s not easy to play a character so impartial and deliberately unlikable yet who is actually trying to work as a force for good. Her work as the lead on a series that on any other cable channel or service would certainly be recognized with a nomination. Plus when you consider the certainty of Staunton’s presence in this category, there would be a certain synchronicity if Swank were here as well.

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

Marcia Gay Harden, So Help Me Todd

I considered switching Harden and Baranski when it came to my selections, but honestly I think Baranski has more of a chance, however remote, for a nomination compared to Harden, at least this year. Harden has been a personal favorite of mine nearly as long as Baranski has been but has received the lion’s share of her recognition for movies not TV.  Her work as Anne Brightman is another in a recent line of superb performances on television, combined with her work on The Morning Show and Uncoupled, but I’m astonished its taking the world this long to give her a series where she’s the lead. As the domineering mother, she is hysterical. As a superb attorney, she’s exceptional, and in her scenes with the brilliant Jeffrey Nordling as her greatest rival turned reluctant love interest, she’s adorable. So Help Me Todd was the most delightful surprise of the 2022-23 season and I hope that Harden, one of the great actresses of our era, receives recognition in some form. Hopefully this year, maybe next.

 

Tomorrow, I will deal with Best Supporting Actor in a Drama. My list will not be completely dominated by Succession cast members.