A Tribute To Davey Johnson, The Greatest Manager Not In Cooperstown

 

As a native New Yorker one of those debates you got into for decades was whether Gil Hodges should be in the Hall of Fame. Hodges was a good power-hitting first baseman for the 'Boys of Summer' during the 1950s who passed away at the young age of 49. The decision by Cooperstown for the next half-century was one of the most controversial, even though Hodges's offensive numbers were at best above average for a first basemen to get in. The real reason, of course, was that he was the manager of the Miracles Mets. Eventually, of course, Hodges got in.

Strangely enough to this point the second – and to date, last – manager of a Mets team that won the World Series – rarely made the discussion for the Hall of Fame even though he was not only the best manager the history of the franchise but also one of the most successful managers of all time. Yet Davey Johnson died on Saturday still never having been inducted into Cooperstown even though he always had a more convincing resume to get inducted even before he finally retired in 2014.

There's been quite a bit written about Johnson in regard to the Mets and there will doubtless me much more in the weeks to come. So it's worth looking at Johnson's career as a whole and making the argument that the Washington Post made earlier today that Johnson was a Hall-of-Famer.

Johnson made his major league debut in 1965 for the Baltimore Orioles. During the first half of the 1960s the Orioles were slowly but surely becoming one of the best teams in the American League. The previous year they had lost the American League Pennant to the Yankees by 3 games. Johnson didn't make much of an impression his rooking year only hitting .170. The Orioles still won 94 games but they finished 8 games behind the Twins for the A.L. Pennant.

However that December the Orioles would send Milt Pappas, Jack Baldschun and Don Simpson to the Cincinnati for Frank Robinson. That year Robinson won the American League Triple Crown and became the first player to win the MVP in both the American and National League. That June the Orioles traded Jerry Adair to the White Sox on June 13. For the rest of the year Johnson hit .257, 7 home runs and 56 RBIs, finishing third for Rookie of the Year.

That year the Orioles would win their first ever American League Pennant and stun the baseball world by sweeping the reigning world champion Dodgers in four straight games. This unofficially began the Orioles dynasty in which they would win four American League Pennants and two World Series in six years.

It didn't seem like it would be one when the following year the Orioles dropped to seventh place as most of the young pitchers – including 21 year old Jim Palmer – all got sore arms. Manager Hank Bauer would be fired halfway through the 1968 season and the Orioles would hire Earl Weaver. This would cement the Orioles place as an A.L powerhouse for the next fourteen years and Johnson would be there for the best three of them.

Back in that era the best second basement hit somewhere between .270 and .280, averaged nine or ten home runs a season and most importantly were great defensively. Johnson did all of the above, particularly on defense. He won the Golden Glove for best second baseman in the American League from 1969-1971, made the All-Star team from 1968-1970 and combined with Brooks Robinson, Mark Belanger and Boog Powell to provide one of the best infields in baseball history. Mayo Smith, who managed the Tigers during this period would say, "Trying to hit a ball through the Baltimore infield is like trying to throw hamburgers through a brick wall.

During the 1969-1971 stretch, the Orioles averaged 106 wins a season. In 1969 alone they won 109 games and for the first time fielded their awesome three-man rotation of Palmer, Mike Cuellar and Dave McNally. However they are eternally remembered as being the victims of the Miracle Mets and Johnson for making the final out of that Series. The Orioles didn't dwell on it long; the following year they won 108 games and would sweep the Reds in five games.

In 1972, however, the Orioles would trade Frank Robinson to the Dodgers and the Orioles offense collapsed. They still managed to finish in third place but at that point the Orioles had replaced Johnson at second base by Bobby Grich and Johnson was traded to Atlanta. That year Johnson had the greatest season of his career hitting 43 home runs with the Braves, a record for a second baseman. That same year Hank Aaron would hit 40 home runs and Darrell Evans would hit 41, the first team in history to have three teammates with forty home runs in the same season. The Braves, however, still finished fifth in the N.L West. Johnson would be on the field for Hank Aaron's historic 715^th home run but the Braves released him at the start of the 1975 season. He played the next two years in Japan, then would end up playing with the 1977 Phillies when they won the N.L. Division title. He hit two grand slams as a pinch hitter in 1978, the first major leaguer to do this but he would be traded to the Cubs soon thereafter and then retire.

The following year Johnson was hired to be the manager of the Triple A- Miami Amigos. The  league he was in folded during its season. In 1981 the Mets hired him to manage their double A team. In 1983 their Triple AAA team. The following year the Mets brought him up to manage.

The Mets had pretty much collapsed after Hodges had died in 1972 and while they had managed to win the pennant in 1973 they had once again become one of the worst teams in baseball. The year before they had finished dead last in the N.L East with the second worst record in all of baseball. No one expected much from Johnson.

In his very first season Johnson took the Mets to 90-72 and into a division race that the Cubs ended up winning by 6 games. It was the best record any Mets team had since the 1969 championship. He was helped immensely by the incredible rookie season of Dwight Gooden and right fielder Darryl Strawberry. Their futures would be helped even further when the Mets acquired all-star catcher Gary Carter.

Over the next six years Johnson would have seven consecutive over .500 seasons and averaged 98 wins per years. They would win two division titles and the 1986 World Series and finish first or second in their division 6 times. But at the time and later on Johnson received very little credit for it even though he would be the winningest manager in Mets history, a pattern that continued much of his career.

Part of it may have been due to the fact that the Mets were unable to ever win back-to-back titles. It didn't help matters that his managerial tenure with the Mets took place before the wild card and the extended postseason, meaning one had to win the division or you got nothing.

In 1984 the Mets had the third best record in the National League but finished six games behind the Cubs. In 1985 the Mets finished 98-64 the second best record in the National League and the third best in baseball overall but because they finished three games behind the Cardinals it amounted to nothing. In 1987 the Mets finished 92-70, again the second best record in the National League but they finished three games behind the Cardinals again. It took 100 games for them to win the N.L  East in 1988 and of course the Dodgers beat them in seven games on their way to the most surprising World Series victory in their career.

Eventually these events combined with a bitter feud with Mets GM Frank Cashen led Johnson to be fired early in the 1990 season. The Mets finished second again that year but in 1991 the first full season without Johnson they dropped back below .500 again. They wouldn't return to the post season for another eight years – at which point Johnson had already been back twice.

Two years after being let go the Cincinnati Reds hired Johnson 44 games into the 1993 season. Just like with the Mets he revived their fortunes almost immediately. At the time of the labor stoppage of 1994 the Reds were in first place and in 1995 he led them to the first official NL Central title in history. However early in that year owner Marge Schott announced that regardless of how the Reds did Johnson would not return in 1995.

In the first official postseason the Reds defeated the Dodgers in the NLDS in what is to date the last postseason series the Reds have won. They would be swept by the Braves in the NLCS en route to the World Championship. Johnson was fired almost immediately afterwards.

He then returned to Baltimore as manager in 1996. The Orioles had not been to the postseason since winning the World Series in 1983 and had finished the 1995 season under .500. In his first season the Orioles went 88-74, good enough for the Wild Card. They beat the defending American League pennant winners Cleveland, who'd won 99 games that year. The Orioles would lose the ALCS to the Yankees in five games.

The following year the Orioles went 98-64, the best record in the American League. Again they won the ALDS over Seattle but this time they lost to Cleveland in six games. But once again Johnson had a dispute with ownership, this time Orioles owner Peter Angelos. The same day Johnson won the American League Manager of the year Johnson handed in his resignation. The Orioles wouldn't have another winning season, much less appear in the postseason, until 2012.

Two years later Johnson was hired for the Dodgers. On May 3 he won his 1000^th game as a manager the fastest any manager had done in their career. Unfortunately it was the highpoint of his season as the Dodgers had an under .500 season. Considering how high-priced the talent was, Johnson was fired the following year even though the Dodgers made it to second place.

Johnson spent much of the next several years mainly in International baseball, managing the U.S. Olympic Team in Beijing. By that time he'd been hired to the front office for the new Washington Nationals in 2006. In 2011 he was hired as manager and once again the luck was in. They won 80 games the most in the franchise's history. And that is where I have my clearest memory of him.

In 2012 the Nationals had their best record in history, going back to their tenure in Montreal when they won 98 games the most in major league baseball. They met the St. Louis Cardinals in the Divisional Playoffs. Going into Game 5 they had a 6-0 lead in the third and were ahead 6-4 in the eighth and 7-5 in the ninth. Then in the ninth, one out away from going to the postseason they completely collapsed and gave up four straight runs, losing to the Cardinals. As someone who rooted for the underdog and wanted Washington to go back to the pennant for the first time since the Coolidge administration that ninth inning was excruciating. Johnson was N.L. Manager of the year again. Johnson went into the 2013 season claiming, 'World Series or Bust'. It turned out to be bust, even though it was another great season: they went 86-76, finishing second place in the N.L. East. Johnson retired after that.

Johnson's record of a manager is one of the most impressive in the history of baseball. In all but one of his seasons he won at least 85 games. He is tenth all time in winning percentage for managers with 1000 wins or more, with a lifetime winning percentage of .561. Every manager above him on this list has been inducted into the Hall of Fame before his passing.

But it's not just that he's was a winning manager; it's that before and after he left every team he managed (with the exception of the Dodgers) they were under .500 or worse. The Mets have not won a World Series since he led to that title in 1986. The Reds have not won a postseason series since he left in 1995 and neither have the Orioles. The Nationals did win the World Series after he left in 2019 but they spent much of the next five years under .500.

He did all of this, I should add, with troubling relationships with ownership in every tenure he had, frequently leading teams that were low-market with large amounts of money. He is one of the pioneers when it comes to using sabermetrics particularly with the Mets, a full fifteen years before Billy Ball and with far more success than the A's ever got. But Johnson was never respected for how well he led his teams by either ownership or the media.

And as a result four separate times while he was still alive he missed induction into Cooperstown, twice on the Veterans Committee and twice with the Today's Game Ballot Committee. While this was happening one of the men ahead of him on the list – Billy Southworth – finally did get inducted into Cooperstown.

Perhaps because Johnson only won a single World Championship and after that never got to the World Series ever again he was never appreciated as the great managers his contemporaries Bobby Cox, Joe Torre and Tony Larussa were. And because his tenures at various teams were never particularly long as opposed to the overwhelming number of Hall of Fame Managers, he never received the same recognition the way that previous managers like Weaver did.

The fact remains Johnson deserved to be in Cooperstown long before his final stint as manager in 2011 and far more than Gil Hodges ever did. He will always have a special place in the history of the Mets; it is long past time he had that respect in Cooperstown.

Homicide Rewatch: Hate Crimes

 

Written by James Yoshimura and Tom Fontana

Directed by Peter Weller

 

I need to briefly bring my personal beliefs into this.

I know there are horrible things about America and the world particularly when it comes to bigotry. Homicide was one of the first television shows that made this abundantly clear, mostly on issues involving race. However looking at an episode like 'Hate Crimes' thirty years later I can't help but think of it as a sign as to how much our country has improved even if some of us don't want to acknowledge it.

To be sure the issues in this episode will almost sadly always be evergreen – a young man is the victim of a gay bashing crime, is killed by skinheads (in the 1990s the most overt version of white supremacy in America) and when the detectives reveal why the victim was killed his father's reaction is still something you can imagine happening in our society with easy. There's also the fact that everyone dismisses the nature of the victim's homosexuality with a kind of heteronormative terms (though in the case of this show its accurate) and Bayliss acts with clear homophobia in every time he's talking. But it's a lot harder to imagine this kind of episode being made today considering how much society has become more accepting of homosexuality as a whole. It's not impossible of course but within just a few years of this episode's airing celebrities would no longer have to hide in the closet their entire careers, gay and lesbian characters would become regulars and eventual leads on network television shows and gay men and women could hold public office and few would blink an eye. I suspect the reaction of so many of Zeke's friends if the episode was shot even a few years later would not be blanket denial but more like: "Why did he feel he had to hide it?" To be clear, however, that's not what this episode is about – and that's kind of what makes it brilliant.

Hate Crimes aired just before Thanksgiving of 1995 and the episode acknowledges this in a way Homicide rarely is faithful to the calendar. Thanksgiving as Kellerman acknowledges at the end of the episode, is a time when you're supposed to gather with the ones you love and celebrate togetherness. For most of us it's a long weekend when we take time off from our endless job and given everything that murder police must deal with you can understand why they'd all want to just go home and not think about dead bodies for a day. But as both the main investigation and the subplot make it very clear that's usually something we just do to paper over the rest of our lives.

Bayliss and Pembleton are called to yet another murder (this is the fifth episode so far this season where the main plot has centered on them) but this one is more painful than usual. For one thing Zeke Lafeld the victim isn't dead when the cops show up: he's been beaten to death and the paramedics are on their way. Pembleton tries to get information from the victim and as in keeping with the show, his last words mean nothing. Bayliss will later say he's shaken up because he had to see a man die but far more important is where Lafeld died and how. He was murdered in a predominantly gay section of Baltimore by neo-Nazis. One of the witnesses makes this very clear and that this is far from an infrequent occurrence. It's worth noting that the dialogue makes it clear that the witness thinks as little of the skinheads as they do of him and are just as free with using a bigoted term as they will be.

Bayliss starts getting odd from the beginning of this investigation, asking Frank when a guy knows he's gay and that he doesn't care as much about this investigation as others. Pembleton knows immediately that his partner is acting incredibly homophobic and he takes this more personally. This becomes clear when the detectives roust a group of neo-Nazis and Tim takes on a particularly vengeful streak, saying that they're going to have no problem framing this particular man for the crime if he doesn't tell them who did it. All of this is a façade. The part that seems genuine is when the skinhead says, "Don't let that n---er touch me". This is one of the only times in Homicide's history where the detectives engage in brutal behavior and I suspect that it would be accepted even today. "All they're doing is beating up some Nazis," the most enlightened progressive viewer might say approvingly.

This is also another episode where we see another familiar and legendary actor. Terry O'Quinn (who still has some of his hair in 1995) has two brilliant scenes as Bailey Lafeld. O'Quinn was basically still relatively little-known at this point (see 'Hey Isn't That…") but you get a sense of the great actor he is when Pembleton tells him what happened to his son. Bailey's been drinking heavily and he seems understandably despairing. Then he asks about why his son was killed. Pembleton tells him this was a hate crime. "I thought those things happened to people like you," he says casually, and you can see where this is going even before Frank tells him his son was homosexual. O'Quinn's change is remarkable; in an instant he's angry, saying the detectives came here like a thief in the night and that his son 'was not queer' which in 1995 was still basically an obscenity. He demands they get out and he says if this is true: "It's better Zeke's dead." Frank leaves silently and Bayliss stays for a moment – before the father throws the drink at him.

Bailey Lafeld hangs over the entire episode even though we don't see him again until the final scenes. Eventually Tim brings up Mary's pregnancy and asks Frank what if his son said he was in love with a man. Frank says he doesn't want to speculate but he makes it clear: "I hope, unlike Zeke's father, I would not be glad to learn my son was dead."

The case, I should mention, is going to stay open and the unit knows it. Even though the skinheads are identified its clear that they've fled the state and that there's no real chance of finding them. I should mention that Gee doesn't seem that bother about having an open case. He tells the detectives to file the paperwork and go home for a Thanksgiving weekend. This is the only implication we get in the episode that maybe Giardello – and the Baltimore PD overall – don't really consider Zeke Lafeld's death with the same urgency they would other murders. That I should mention is another sing of progress. If a gay man were murdered on the streets of Baltimore in the sight of witnesses, the feds would be called in, press conferences would be held and the bosses would go out of their way to reassure the gay community. (The show will actually address how much things change in another storyline in a little more than two years' time.) But in Hate Crimes, no one calls for a red ball, there are no reporters on site, and even Frank for all his passion, doesn't seem upset that there's no real manpower to find the killers. No procedural worth its salt would dare write a storyline like this today in contemporary America and have the entire unit treat it with indifference. That Homicide could and did in 1995 shows how much our society has progressed even if individual prejudices don't go away that easily.

But again that's not why Zeke died. Later on Zeke's friends from college show up and they tell Bayliss and Pembleton  that Zeke was straight and they all knew it. The detectives tell them that people change and you don't know somebody. Then they tell him to go and see someone – Zeke's fiancé. She tells them that Zeke and she had been on and off again since high school and that Zeke was a compulsive womanizer. She said that a woman knows when her significant other is gay. (I'm not sure the term 'gay-dar existed in 1995 but this is a clear implication of it.) Then they go through his address book and find that Zeke had come to visit an old family friend who lives in that neighborhood – a lesbian in what appears to be a monogamous relationship. She tells them that Bailey cut her off when she came out but Zeke never did. He went to see her to buy a present for his girlfriend.

Finally Bayliss goes to see his father and tells him that they know who killed his son – and more importantly that he wasn't gay. Bailey breaks down in tears – but the first words out of his mouth are: "Thank God." He tries to cover his bigotry as a loving father – "I just wanted what's best for him" – but when Bayliss walks away he knows the truth and implies as much to Frank.

There are no easy answer at the end of this episode. Frank's angry at himself because he made the same snap judgment about the victim that people have been making about him his whole life. When Tim says its human nature Frank makes it clear that bigotry is one of those things that we have to be carefully taught. He thinks it shouldn't matter that Zeke was gay or not. And Tim points out it shouldn't but it does. Yet another sad commentary on human nature.

If it were just for this storyline Hate Crimes would be required viewing. But in a call back to old school Homicide the show does something it hasn't yet done since Season 1. It revisits an old storyline. Lewis and Kellerman meet a second grader whose teacher tells them that one of her old students is playing murder. In a moment that is truly powerful the child looks at the board (where she's been innocently drawing before) and says: "this is the same last name as me, right?" She's pointing to Erica Chilton.

This is a personal case to Lewis who interviewed her with Crosetti back in 1994 but she doesn't remember it. Then Howard comes storming in and she is angry in a way we've never seen her before. She gets into the kind of knock-down drag-em out argument with Lewis that at this point we've only seen Bayliss and Pembleton get into. Howard yells at Meldrick for being sloppy with procedure both now and with the investigation. She has no interest in hearing Lewis's excuses – which honestly make sense given the circumstances. Howard accuses Lewis of not being respectful of her being sergeant. Lewis, for once, has the high ground when Howard says this was her case. He rightfully points out that she never wanted the Chilton case and that this has more to do with her streak then anything else. Howard will later tell Kellerman that she wanted to solve Erica Chilton's murder for herself but that doesn't track one bit with what we saw in Nothing Personal. The Chilton case is personal because in her mind it reflects badly on her and she feels letting anyone else do the work undercuts her. Giardello intervenes and tries to get Howard to back down. Instead she storms after Lewis and demands to be kept in the loop,

To be fair to Howard Lewis doesn't cover himself with glory either. It's worth remembering he wanted to take all of Crosetti's old cases and he may very well see this as personal for him. When they bring Tom Marans in for question Kellerman goes to get Howard and Meldrick deliberately says: "We don't need her." When the case is closed he seems to take relish in the fact that Howard missed something in the investigation and shrugs it off. "You should be thanking me." Meldrick isn't a good loser but he's often an insufferable winner.

The actual interrogation is classic Homicide and what makes it work is that for all the ugliness between Lewis and Howard it is Kellerman who actually does much of the work. It's he who's takes the time with Catherine while Lewis and Howard are snapping at each other to get the information that she saw Tom smother Cathy. It's he who pokes holes in Tom's story while walking him to the box. And it's he who gently points out that Tom might have killed Erica while Catherine was in the room but there must be something good in him because he didn't kill the daughter. It's that quiet maneuvering that gets Marans over the edge and he admits why he did it.

We're reminded of the letters that Felton lost in Nothing Personal and they were key – just not how we thought. Marans couldn't deal with how detailed the sexual descriptions were and how much it hurt him to think that Cathy never loved him as deeply as this man. She never got rid of the letters and he was terrified of losing her. So he killed her. Dean Winters, back for his second stint, gets to show a despair he rarely does in so much of his later work as we see a man fundamentally broken by what he's done, gasping for the fact there must be something good in him for not killing Catherine.

It's fascinating that when all this is over Kellerman, still the new guy, is dealing with the darkness of how Tom Marans could do something like this and the only thing he has to be thankful for is how he didn't kill the daughter. Rewatching this episode I'm once again impressed by Reed Diamond's fresh-faced look to him, his innocence still not gone. And I can't help but think that so much of the subplot is Kellerman trying to find something to do for Thanksgiving and being drawn into Lewis' idea of being spontaneous. There's something haunting about that last image where Kellerman's in the squad room alone, picking apart the turkey he made of an apple at the start of the episode and biting into it.

We also get a follow up to the storyline I don't like. Russert and Giardello call Brodie into their office and make it clear that he's been freelancing and being a pain in the ass. They hire him to film their crime scenes not so much as a good deed or even for the purposes of policework but most likely he'll stop popping up and being a problem. When Brodie says, "You won't regret this" Giardello says: "I already do."

Brodie will be a recurring character for the rest of Season 4 and will be promoted to series regular for Season 5 but the writers never really have much use for him besides everyone in the offices choosing to belittle him and him making a fool of himself at every opportunity. Of all the characters on Homicide over the years he's the only one who the show could have done without and most fans would neither have complained or even noticed. Indeed his video camera is the biggest sign of how dated this show really is – these days every detective would just use their phone.

 

NOTES FROM THE BOARD

This episode is the first mention of Kay Howard's sister Carrie is now living in Florence. We've heard her mentioned a few times but didn't see her when Kay went back to visit her family in Last of the Watermen. We'll meet her in Season 4.

'Detective Munch': Munch is spending his Thanksgiving in Killington, shushing down the slopes and then he'll be getting sloshed. He makes his hippie presence known by pointing out that Thanksgiving celebrates "the genocide of American Indians and the birth of European colonialism."  In the final flashes we see him drinking with a woman. It's not clear who it is.

Hey Isn't That… At the time of this episode Terry O'Quinn already had a long track record in TV and film, most notably in the B-Movie horror franchise The Stepfather in which he played the title role. He was presence in many made for TV movies and that year had already made appearances in The X-Files and the series Earth 2. The following year he took on the recurring role of Peter Watts in the Fox series Millennium which he stayed in for all three seasons. He also would have recurring roles in JAG. However in 2002 his career began to take an upward trajectory when he got the recurring role of Assistant director Kendall in Alias for the first two seasons. As a result of his work, when J.J Abrams worked on the Pilot for Lost O'Quinn didn't even have to audition for the role of John Locke which finally turned him into a superstar. He would win an Emmy for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama in 2007 and be nominated for two more during the six years the show aired.

He has worked consistently in television ever since with roles in short lived series such as 666 Park Avenue, Gang Related and the second season of Secrets and Lies. He played the role of Tom Tavner in all three seasons of Amazon's Patriot, played Wesley Walker in Perpetual Grace Ltd on Epix, had lead roles on Pieces of Her and played Peter Bach on Resident Alien until the show was cancelled this year.

Alison Smith, who plays Debbie Haskell, made her television debut at 9 when she played Evita Peron as a girl on a TV movie. She starred as Jennie on Kate & Allie for five seasons and then played Sara Pratt on Sweet Justice. Though she worked in many series before that she is best known for her semi-regular role as Mallory, Leo's daughter on The West Wing. While she has appeared in many other TV series since then it is usually just as a guest star and in recent years she has acted less and less. Her last role was in the revival of Will and Grace in 2020.

Peter Weller is far more known as an actor, most famous for Robocop. In truth his career had already spanned fifteen years before he took his most famous role and he'd played Peter Niles in the televised version of Mourning Becomes Electra. I'll limit myself to his television work which is considerable. Mostly appearing in TV movies, he eventually took on the role of Chuck Taggart in the Showtime drama Odyssey 5 which aired for two seasons. He played Christopher Henderson one of the critical characters on the Emmy winning fifth season of 24. He then played former Miami Metro Detective Stan Liddy in Season 5 of Dexter and would play Charlie on Sons of Anarchy. He's also had roles of significance on The Last Ship, Longmire and the revival of MacGyver. He's directed episodes of all of these series as well as Las Vegas, The Strain, House, Justified, Tyrant and the revival of Magnum P.I.

Get The DVD: Trust me, the final scenes of this episode don't have the same effect if you're not hearing the Bare Naked Ladies recording of "When You Were Born'. Particularly given the theme of the episode it registers in a way the replacement doesn't.

 

My Predictions for the 2025 Emmys Conclusion: Outstanding Supporting Actress in A Limited Series et al

 

We've come at last to the end of the predictions. The bulk of this article will deal with Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series which has a better collection of nominees than I dared hope. I honestly didn't think that two performers I wanted to appear in this category had much of a chance.

While there is another big favorite in this category it's not as solid as the bulk of the other contenders, and there is a chance albeit a slim one, for an upset. Here we go one last time.

 

Erin Doherty, Adolescence. EXPERTS PICK. For Playing: Briony, a court ordered psychiatrist in for her final session with Jamie while he is in lock up. Pro: Doherty has been the overwhelming favorite in this category for Episode 3 in which she plays the court ordered therapist who is seeing Jamie for the last in what have been several sessions since he has been in juvenile custody. It's clear she knows him pretty well, is used to his moods and has been trying to get him to open up in a way he's been refusing too. In the light of Owen Cooper's masterful work Doherty spends the entire episode the picture of professionalism acting with decorum, trying to remain calm in the face of Jamie's outbursts trying to get him to acknowledge how he got here. Its only in the final minutes when she reveals her purpose for being there that Jamie begins to break down. The final minute after Jamie has left and we see Doherty finally lose her professional façade is magnificent. Episode 3 is likely to be the big winner here and Doherty could triumph for it. Con: Unlike Cooper Doherty has yet to notch a single award for her work. She lost the Astra to Cristin Milioti for the latter's work in Black Mirror and while Graham and Cooper took prizes for Adolescence she has yet to. Of all the prizes Adolescence is listed as the favorite in, her position is by far the shakiest.

 

Diedre O'Connell, The Penguin. For Playing: Mrs. Cobb, the beloved mother of Oz suffering from dementia but still aware of what her son has always been capable of. Pro: From the start of The Penguin it was clear the only person Oz cared about at any level was his mother. She was suffering from the late stages of dementia from the start of the series and we were never clear how aware she was of what her son was doing or what he was capable of. It was only in the last two episodes when we learned the horror of what her son had done to his brothers as a child  - and even worse that she had been aware of it but didn't know how to handle it – that we realized the horror of it. The final episode where Oz refused to confess to his mother what she had known his entire life and when she finally turned on him in what was her last moment of lucidity before a paralytic stroke made all the horrors we'd seen almost seem like child's play. O'Connell's work was frequently lose under the power of the two leads but it was just as quietly extraordinary. Con: Even though she got her share of award nominations over the year O'Connell was never able to win a single prize. She would be a worthy candidate but she doesn't have a real chance.

 

Ruth Negga, Presumed Innocent. For Playing: Barbara Sabich, trying to keep her family and her world together when her husband is accused of murdering his former lover. Pro: Negga got her share of nominations in the lead up to the Emmys but like so many of the performers in this cast, few gave her a realistic chance of earning one. But I knew that it would be difficult for the Emmys to ignore the quiet power of Negga's work as the wronged wife in this classic novel. Like more than a few cares Barbara's role was expanded and we got to see how the trial affected her life both as a woman, a professional and a mother. Some might have bickered about her race being swapped for the novel; I actually thought it gave the story more power, particularly as the writers never once made the statement of Rusty having an obsessive affair with a white woman. And it's worth noting that the way they twisting the ending gave the show more power and in a sense more ownership to the Sabich family, particularly for Negga. It was a dignified and exceptional performance more than worthy of a nomination. Con: Negga has the same problem of every nominee from Presumed Innocent; nobody really thought the show would do this well. She would be a deserving winner but she has no realistic chance of it.

 

Chloe Sevigny, Monsters: The Jose & Kitty Menendez Story. For Playing: Kitty Menendez, the mother of Erik and Lyle murdered along with her husband. Pro: If you read my predictions before the nominations came out, I personally advocated for Sevigny receiving a nomination and was relatively certain she would be overlooked. This has been, sadly, the trend of Sevigny for her entire career in film and television. Whether she played Barb in Big Love or C.Z. Guest in Capote Vs. The Swans she never got as much as a nomination from the Emmys and I didn't think it would happen here. So I'm thrilled that the Emmys chose to recognize Sevigny's incredible work as Kitty Menendez, which was just as brilliant as Javier Bardem's work but not nearly as appreciated. To be fair, it was a trickier role Kitty had to play a woman who seemed to be under the thumb of Jose but fundamentally ignorant of what he was doing to their children. And since so much of the defense was laid at what the father had done, Kitty seemed less present. But just as with Bardem, the sixth episode told a far different story of Kitty, someone who clearly loved her husband, who knew she wasn't a good mother, whose sons were selfish and unresponsive and who had realized that she had been the victim of abuse herself. It's clear before the end she might have known what her husband was doing but she asked the question if it came from years of abuse. That final scene of the two eating ice cream together was actually tragic when we saw it, and it played to another level of Sevigny's brilliance. Con: Just because I predicted her being nominated doesn't mean I ever thought she had chance of winning. In truth even in this category she would at best be my fourth choice to prevail. Still I'm glad Sevigny was nominated.

 

Jenny Slate, Dying for Sex. MY PICK. For Playing: Nikki, trying to deal with her best friends illness and all her needs. Pro: How is it that Jenny Slate, hyphenate, indie queen, voiceover artist extraordinaire, beloved comic actress and practically a national treasure already hasn't been nominated for, much less won, an Emmy? She would have been my out and out favorite to win in this category well before the nominations came out. The pedants could argue that Nikki isn't much different from the hot messes Slate frequently plays in movies and TV but the difference is, everyone else but Molly considers a hot mess when she's always been here ride-or-die, a term that now takes on literal connotations. Slate is wonderful turning her life upside down to be with Molly every step of the way, being supportive, dealing with a horrific system and sometimes even being neglected by Molly's narrow-mindedness. But it always comes from a place of love and its clear in the series finale that Nikki is trying to deal with the fact that her platonic soulmate will soon be gone and she'll be left behind. So in the final minutes after Molly leaves this mortal coil, Slate plays it perfectly by saying nothing. The final moments are life-affirming because we see Nikki can move on and up. And unlike everyone else in this category Slate actually has an award to her credit: she tied with Owen Cooper for Best Supporting Lead at the Gotham TV Awards, defeating even overwhelming favorite Erin Doherty. Con: The momentum for Adolescence will likely carry Doherty over the top but it is worth noting that Slate has been given more of a chance than most of Adolescence's opponents in any category by Gold Derby.

 

Christine Tremarco, Adolescence. For Playing: Manda Miller, trying to celebrate her husband's fiftieth birthday in the aftermath of her sons conviction. Pro: Even the most devout Adolescence boosters gave Tremarco little chance of being nominated by the Emmys this year. Unlike the four named leads for the series Manda had few showy moments to stand out, even in the series finale which was very much Graham's show. But there's much to admire in Tremarco's work as we see a devoted wife and mother trying to pretend everything is normal, live with the vandalism to her car, try to keep up with her husband's ebullience which dissolves when they reach the hardware store and then learn that her son is pleading guilty. But much of the power in the episode comes from the back and forth between husband and wife, as they try to pretend their lives are normal while they know perfectly well its been destroyed forever. As they realize that they will spend their lives wondering what they did wrong and if they could have saved their son they find a way, however slim, to move forward out of darkness. It is remote but Tremarco shows it and it is a small gem. Con: If anyone from Adolescence is going to win it's Doherty and I'm pretty sure even Tremarco knows it.

Prediction: Doherty will likely win but don't rule out the possibility of an upset by Slate.

 

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING AND WRITING

I suspect Adolescence will win both categories though I'll be honest my favorite in both writing and direction is the Cent'Anni episode of The Penguin. Don't rule out the possibility of an upset in direction for that one.

The rest of the major awards I'm indifferent about. Stephen Colbert and John Oliver will win for Late Night but I'm not going to watch their speeches this year for reasons I've stated previously. I've never cared about reality shows but I hope Alan Cumming wins because I've always respected him.

 

And that's it for my predictions. I'll have one more post Sunday before the broadcast to deal with my reactions to the Creative Arts Emmys as well as if that shows us any trends.

My Predictions for the 2025 Emmys: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series

 

In the era of Peak Limited Series this category always has two things: arguably the best collection of performers in this genre (though supporting actress can occasionally rival it) and an overwhelming frontrunner. Both are certainly true this year. I accurately predicted five of the six nominees in this category and the only reason I didn't pick the sixth was because not even I dared hope the Emmys would be willing to recognize him.

There is an overwhelming front runner in this category and I don't deny he would be a deserving winner. He's not my pick per se but I won't be upset when he wins. Here we go.

 

Javier Bardem, Monsters: The Erik & Lyle Menendez Story. For Playing: Jose Menendez, the victim and abuser of his sons' violence – who has his own complicated history. Pro: Bardem made a tour of the awards shows at the start of this year, nominated for the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice Awards and the SAG Award for his incredible work as Jose. Bardem is one of the greatest actors of this century in large part because he's known for playing villains so when we see him in the opening flashbacks from the perspective of his sons, it's easy to see him as the villain as a bullying, degrading abusive father figure. It's not much of a stretch to see him as the sexual monster he['s described as by his sons. So it's shocking to see the episode the flashback that tells the story of Jose and Kitty and its revelatory. It doesn't quite excuse everything he's done to his sons, but it casts a shadow on whether he's simply been trying to be a good father and his sons kept disappointing him. And in his final conversation with his mother when we learn not only that he endured a childhood of sexual abuse – but that the cycle didn't even start there -  Bardem does something you would have thought impossible: it partially redeems him in the eyes of the viewer. It's one of the most layered performances by this Oscar winning actor. Con: Bardem went home empty handed during the early months of the year and by the time the Emmy nominations came out, his front runner status was completely gone. It's not going to come back.

Bill Camp, Presumed Innocent  For Playing: Raymond Horgan, ex Cook County DA now tasked with defending his best prosecutor for a crime he's not sure he's innocent of. Pro: Camp's nomination was by far the most surprising in this category and even I hadn't thought it possible. It had nothing to do with Camp's performance or the way the writers expanded Raymond's role beyond canon in this adaptation. In this version we see Horgan losing reelection and dealing with forced retirement and the revelation that he may not have known what was going on in his office this whole time. He spends the first half of the series dealing with this and then being asked by Rusty to take over his defense even though he's clearly not in great health – and indeed during one cross examination he suffers a heart attack that could have killed him. Camp once again demonstrates why he is one of the great character actors working today; the fact that he gave a very different but equally brilliant performance in Sirens  - that he could have just as easily been nominated for – demonstrates yet again why he's always won of the most underrated performers today. Con: Camp's nomination came as a shock to many and I suspect it will be an honor just to be nominated.

Owen Cooper, Adolescence . EXPERTS PICK  For Playing: Jamie Miller, an adolescent accused of an unthinkable crime against a female classmate. Pro: I need to be clear even though I think Adolescence s overrated I don't hold that grudge against any of the performers in the cast. And that is true for Cooper, for whom this is his debut as an actor on any medium. Cooper has already won the Astra and shared in the Gotham TV award for Supporting Performance for his role in this series. As  a child for whom the police raid scares him into wetting his bed we're initially as stunned as his family to learn he's suspected in this horrible crime. He seems like an ordinary child. But then in the third episode, which takes place after he has spent months in juvenile detention, we see him in what will be his last court ordered therapy appointment. Actors in this category took years to develop the mastery of emotions and control that Cooper shows in what is essentially his screen debut. It's more than likely Episode 3 is going to be the biggest winner of any episode on Emmy night and no one can deny that Cooper in particular deserves every bit of honor he gets for it. Con: The only thing working against Cooper is his age. The next youngest performer nominated this year is Bella Ramsey. I don't remember if the Emmys have given a prize for acting for someone this young in my lifetime. It might work against him; it probably won't.

Rob Delaney, Dying for Sex. For Playing: Neighbor Guy, the unlikely sexual soulmate of Molly on her quest for an orgasm. Pro: Delaney's been acting for awhile and while he's been part of some of the most underrated TV shows of all time, a matinee idol he is not. So fittingly Dying leans into every aspect of that when it comes to making him the unlikely companion for Molly on her dying sexual walkabout. We here him making sounds of groaning, he can't make eye contact with Molly in the elevator, their initial encounters involve dirty talk and her kicking him in the penis (they both need to go to the hospital) and it's always hysterically messy every time they're onscreen together. But there's also something sweet about their relationship and Delaney makes it clear he knows his place: once their encounter occurs he gracefully walks out of her life, likely never seeing her again. It's a messy, hysterical performance and Delaney demonstrates he will not let dignity get in the way of giving a great role. Con: See previous entry. Even if Cooper wasn't here, I suspect Delaney would still have issues: while the Emmys have gotten looser on the subject in recent years, they're still not comfortable giving awards for comic performances.

Peter Sarsgaard, Presumed Innocent (MY PICK) For Playing: Tommy Molto, the bitter, utterly hated prosecutor charged with trying his colleague Rusty Sabich for murder. Pro: Almost from the moment Sarsgaard uttered his first line of dialogue Molto came the definition of 'the man you love to hate', a man who even his greatest ally said had 'a persecution complex and a narcissism complex', a man willing to go full scorched earth in order to work in the name of justice. Rusty thought he would fine because the jury would see him for who he was. Then Molto wanted into court and became a completely different man from his opening statement to his cross-examination of Rusty and it was like Jekyll and Hyde – only Hyde was the more sympathetic personality. Sarsgaard actually managed to make Tommy not only more sympathetic by the end of the series but actually looking like the only character who was capable of growing and moving on. He's been my secret favorite for the Emmy ever since I saw the show and I still think he deserves to win. Con: Sarsgaard's problem – aside from the fact he's not Owen Cooper – is that Presumed Innocent struggled a lot in the leadup to the Emmy nominations in other awards show this year. Even I was surprised it did as well with the Academy as it ended up doing. Sarsgaard will win an Emmy some day; just not for this.

Ashley Walters, Adolescence. For Playing: DI Luke Bascombe, trying to make sense of the murder of a thirteen year old girl. Pro: I was honestly afraid that Walters solid and moral performance  - which I actually think is the best overall on this show – would get overlooked in favor of the understandable praise being heaped on Cooper. There are no histrionics for Walters in the way there are for so many of his co-stars; he's just doing his job, trying to make sense of not just a horrible crime but the fact it happened in his town. His performance in the second episode is the most optimistic of the entire series; as he walks through a school and sees the chaos that it's in, seeing how lost and violent these students are and how the faculty doesn't even try to control the chaos, you see something breaking in him. And yet once he makes the connection he does something no other character is able to do. He pulls his teenage son out of school and tries to reconnect with him. In contrast to the rest of the show, Bascombe is the only one who might have a chance at a happy ending or at least being able to put this all behind him. It's a superb piece of acting and I'm glad he was nominated. Con: It's an age old story; the criminal gets recognized far more than the copper.

 

MY PREDICTION: They'll almost certainly have to lower the microphone for the winner this year. On a more serious note, we may see the youngest winner in Emmy history as well as the oldest on the same night.

 

Tomorrow I take us all home with Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series/TV Movie and the remaining awards in this category.

My Predictions for the 2025 Emmy Nominations: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series/TV Movie

 

Note: While all of these categories technically involve TV movies none of major categories of any kind have any acting, directing or writing nominees. However for this category alone I'm going to make an exception as there's a good argument one of the contenders would qualify under that logic.

While this category isn't as strong as the high quality has been over the last decade it nevertheless has numerous formidable contenders who gave superb performances. That said, as with Best Actor, there is a clear frontrunner in this category pretty much since last January. And I think few would argue with her winning.

Here we go.

 

Cate Blanchett, Disclaimer. For Playing: Catherine, who discovers a novel by a reclusive writer has eerie parallels to a real life incident in her childhood. Pro: Blanchett spent most of the early months of 2025 making the awards show circuit for her brilliant work in Alfonso Cuaron's Disclaimer. This show was considered one of the earlier contenders to dominate this category and a large part of that reason was Blanchett's official Peak TV debut, playing an accomplished editor who finds that the most recent novel written  by a publisher bares unmistakable similarities to an incident in her child. This was one of the more restrained performances compared to so many others this past year but it showed the continued majesty of one of the greatest actresses whoever lived. Con: Like many observers I was stunned that Disclaimer wasn't nominated for Best Limited Series and that the show as a whole did very poorly with the Emmys: Blanchett's nomination is the only major one the entire series received. With no real buzz to speak of any remote chance Blanchett had of winning probably died the day of the nominations.

Meghan Fahy, Sirens. For Playing: Devin, who comes to upstate New York to get her sister to take care of her ailing father only to find herself in the bizarre world of the Kells. Pro: Fahy's nomination in this category was by far the biggest shock of the entire Limited Series group, perhaps even of the Emmy nominations itself. But having watched the entire brilliant show in a single week, I can assure you that the Emmys absolutely made the right call. From the moment she carries an edible arrangement for nearly twelve hours in order to throw in her sister's face, she is the voice of sanity in the world of the ultra-wealthy Kell family than Simone has gotten involved in. While the surreal nature of Sirens suggests that there is something supernatural going on for once everything we see has a rational explanation. And in a cast of exceptionally talented actresses and actors, Fahy managed to stand out with her dirty wardrobe, her really sexual performance and her gift for saying the wrong thing and the wrong time. It was the second superb performance Fahy gave in the 2024-2025 season (her first was in The Perfect Couple) and now officially establishes her as one of the great actresses in television. I was personally happy that Fahy was nominated before I saw Sirens. Now once again my faith in the Emmys is restored. Hey, hey. Con: Considering that people thought it was more likely that Fahy's co-star Julianne Moore would be nominated than Fahy, I think it's safe to say that even fans of Sirens were shocked by Fahy being here. Realistically she doesn't have a chance.

Rashida Jones, Black Mirror. For Playing: Amanda, who after a medical emergency is signed up for a high tech system that will keep her alive but begins to destroy who she is. Pro:  Only in a more bizarre world than this could it be possible that this is Rashida Jones first nomination for acting in her entire career. She's been acting in TV since Boston public, starred for two seasons in The Office before moving to Pawnee Indiana, played Angie Tribeca –  there's something more devious at work then Rivermind that this is her first nomination. She's also, I should add, the first actor connected to Black Mirror to receive an Emmy nomination, which is more remarkable. And it helps her stance that 'Common People' the first episode of the current season is by far one of the best episodes of what even fans acknowledge was an uneven season. But that's how Jones has been her entire career: always capable of taking even the most middling material and mining gold from it; when she's given a gem like this, there's no way she can't knock it out of the park. Con: One of her fellow co-stars from the current season of Black Mirror is almost certainly going to win – and of course, it's not going to be for 'Beyond Infinity'

Cristin Milioti, The Penguin EXPERTS PICK, MY PICK. For Playing: Sofia Falcone, released from Arkham Asylum and determined to take over her role as the had of Gotham's most notorious crime family. Pro: It says a lot that even with Colin Farrell giving one of the greatest performances of his entire career, the consensus was that Milioti's performance was one of the most outstanding of 2024. And having watched every minute I agree with that assessment. Every second Milioti was onscreen, even when she was sharing it with Farrell, you could not look aware from her. Her work in the incredible Cent'Anni episode – when we learned just how Sofia ended up in Arkham, having been framed by her father for his crimes, denounced by everyone in her family save her brother, and was subject to the most horrific torture of body and soul – was arguably the highwater mark for The Penguin and ended with an image that would do credit to the writers of Breaking Bad. Yet at every level our sympathies were with Sofia as we saw her realize – with a clarity no one does in Gotham – the vicious cycle she was a part of that and that she was a monster herself. The final episode was a genuine tragedy as we saw with a real possibility of escape only to have it crushed by Oz that shows what a true monster he was as he forced her to endure a fate worse than death. Milioti has already won the Critics Choice Award and the Astra in this category; the fact that she followed this by recreating her iconic role in Black Mirror – which also earned her a prize from the Astras – makes clear her versatility. Nothing can stand her way. Con: I honestly can't think of one. There's never been a moment since February that Milioti didn't have a lock on this at Gold Derby and no one's close to her now.

Michelle Williams, Dying for Sex. For Playing: Molly, determined to have an orgasm with another person before she dies of terminal cancer. Pro: I know it's a cliché to use the phrase "Michelle Williams as you've never seen her before" but how else can I describe her work as she plays Molly a woman who reacts to recurrence of cancer by leaving her apartment to get diet soda and decides that she wants to spend her last days going on a sexual journey? And by the way, all of this is one of the funniest performances I've seen this year? Williams is utterly hysterical, whether she's masturbating to Keanu Reeves in Speed online, hooking up with strangers on Tinder, deciding to punch her neighbor in the crotch while talking dirty to him, deciding to spend her last days having sex in her hospital bed (while an angry orderly keeps looking on) and going through her last days having a hallucination of penises while playing jigsaw puzzles. Williams is a joy every minute she's onscreen and under other circumstances I would total consider her the favorite. Con: Williams already has an Emmy in this category to her credit for her work in Fosse/Verdon. I think she'll do much better in some of the end of year awards (Golden Globes, SAG etc.) but this month she's going to come up empty-handed and I think she's fine with that.

 

PREDICTION: Milioti takes the prize she's basically had locked up since November.

 

Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series. This may be the best collection of nominees in this category and though there is an overwhelming frontrunner, I'd argue that there's a better case for at least one of them.

My Predictions for the 2025 Emmys: Outstanding Lead Actor in A Limited Series

 

In the era of Peak Limited Series it is almost unheard of for the awards shows such as the Golden Globes, SAG Awards and Critics Choice Awards to have much impact on the Emmys. This is usually because they tend to cover the end of year awards and the Emmys cover 2024-2025. The last time there was something resembling a correspondence was with The Queen's Gambit back in 2020 and even then Anya Taylor-Joy, who'd won every Best Actress award in the book, still lost to Kate Winslet for Mare of Easttown.

This year is almost certain to prove an exception in two of the major categories this year in large part because pretty much from the Golden Globes on two performers have absolutely owned the acting categories in every major awards show between now and July. One of them is the overwhelming favorite in a category that, even by the immensely high standards we've seen in the past decade, has an incredibly high caliber of nominees and actors.

Here are the nominees.

 

Colin Farrell, The Penguin EXPERTS PICK, MY PICK. For Playing: Oz Cobb, the self-proclaimed 'man of the people cutting a bloody swath through the Gotham Cit underworld to achieve his ends. Pro: Farrell has swept every major acting award in this category from the Golden Globe to the Astras since January and anyone who saw his work as Oz this past year knows he deserved it almost from the first episode on. I've always known Farrell was one of the greatest actors of our time but the way he managed to find a new way of showing one of the most iconic villains in the history of comic books – and made him seem more frightening in a genre known for having extraordinary villains – testifies to his incredible performance. It helped that The Penguin was an organized crime story and Farrell seemed to be channeling James Gandolfini every moment he was onscreen, showing elements of humanity The Sopranos rarely allowed the real one to show but never let us forget in the final two episodes that he was a villain through and through. And the final scene, where he finally achieves everything he's always wanted but has only an illusion to share it with, was one of the most unsettling images I saw all of 2024. When you throw in the fact that Farrell has given some of the best acceptance speeches all through awards seasons – going out of his way to than craft service providers and the producers, while admitting he gave Jamie Lee Curtis Covid -  everybody wants Farrell to win and he will. Con: He does face the issue of having played a comic book character and the momentum for Adolescence.

 

Stephen Graham, Adolescence. For Playing: Eddie Miller, a British pipeworker who learns his son is guilty of a horrible crime. Pro: Adolescence is as much the brainchild of Stephen Graham, one of the most underrated character actors of the 21^st century.  He wrote all of the episodes; he directed a couple. And he remained humble throughout giving his role of Eddie a smaller performance compared to the rest. His high point came in the series finale when we saw Eddie celebrating his 50^th birthday and trying to ignore what his son did. We saw him going to breakfast with his family, found at a stop at a hardware store that he couldn't escape what had happened and finally reacted to the horrors of what unfolded. Then he learned his son was pleading guilty and then he returned home to face the very real horror that the child he raised had done something unthinkable. It was a portrayal of immense grief that has led him to win the Gotham TV Award in this category earlier this year. There's a possibility momentum for Adolescence will put him over the top. Con: Graham is going to win Emmys for producing and writing. I suspect the Emmys will share the wealth here. Graham will make up for it on the carper for the Globes this year.

 

Jake Gyllenhaal, Presumed Innocent. For Playing: Rusty Sabich, a Cook County prosecutor who finds he is being prosecuted for the murder of his former mistress by the system he  spent years upholding. Pro: Were it not for the presence of Farrell in this category Gyllenhaal would be my favorite to win. As early as this past November I thought this reimagining of the best selling novel had the kind of powerful acting that deserved nominations and awards. And none of that was more present than Gyllenhaal's incredible work as Rusty, who clings to his innocence even as the noose tightens around him every episode. There's a rage and cutthroat nature to Rusty as he increasingly becomes more reckless and angrier with each new twist, seeing enemies everywhere. Even those of us who know the original book and his actions couldn't help but wonder the closer we got to the end: is he really guilty? It is one of the great performances in Gyllenhaal's nearly quarter of a century career. Con: Both Gyllenhaal and the show had a lot of trouble making the roster of so many end-of-year awards shows and many insiders were stunned (though I wasn't one) that Gyllenhaal was nominated. And this is a category with many formidable performances. The nomination will have to serve.

 

Bryan Tyree Henry, Dope Thief. For Playing: Ray Driscoll, a delinquent who poses as a DEA agent to rob a house and unintentionally reveals and unravels the biggest narcotics corridor on the Eastern seaboard. Pro: Henry has been one of the more formidable African-American actors ever since he burst onto the scene as Paper Boi in Donald Glover's masterpiece Atlanta, for which he deservedly received his first Emmy nomination. Ever since then he's made an impact in dark dramas and frightening comedies. So in a sense his work in Dope Thief is very much keeping in with that trend, a man who plays a part, realizes how deep he's gotten in and keeps getting in deeper and deeper. He received his share of nominations leading up to this and won a jury prize from the Gotham TV awards for it and it is another feather in a cap that is getting very full. Con: Henry's nomination is the only one Dope Thief received from the Emmys. And as Robert Downey, Jr learned the hard way last year, that's usually not enough to put you over the top no matter how great your work is in a Limited Series.

 

Cooper Koch, Monsters: The Erik & Lyle Menendez Story. For Playing: Lyle Menendez, who claims he and his brother murdered their parents after a childhood filled with sexual abuse. Pro: Apparently Cooper Koch knew he was supposed to play Lyle Menendez. And watching him inhabit the role I can see this wasn't braggadocio. For the first third of the series, Koch makes Lyle seem the most likely the snap, the one who feels the most guilt, the one who can't handle what's happening to him. Then he confides the decades of abuse he underwent at the hands of his parents, and in what was one of the best episodes of 2024 'The Hurt Man', we watch what is a one shot of Lyle confiding every detail of what he went through at the hands of his father and mother.  It certainly earned him the nomination he got – which makes it all the more remarkable that for the remainder of the series Koch turns his character around in such a way that you wonder if he's managed to sell the public and his attorney a bill of goods.  The final scene -  almost certainly fictional – will haunt me because it makes you wonder who's been driving the train the whole time. It is a performance for the ages. Con: So was Evan Peters' work as Jeffrey Dahmer and the voters wouldn't give him the Emmy. And this is a far stronger field that one.

 

MY PREDICTION: Farrell completes the sweep of every possible acting award that he stopped Richard Gadd from doing this January for Baby Reindeer.

 

Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series. Second verse, same as the first.

My Predictions for the 2025 Emmys: Outstanding Limited Series

 

Before I begin my official predictions I hope you'll forgive a brief editorial.

For the first time since I began officially predicting Outstanding Limited Series as part of my Emmys articles in 2016 (which more or less coincided with the arrival of what I call Peak Limited Series) the overwhelming favorite and nearly certain winner is one in good conscience I can't endorse.

I've already make it clear in my reviews of Adolescence that while I admire the performances and certain aspects of the writing, this series will not be on my top ten list in any form. In past years every winner has been a show that I either put high on that list (Baby Reindeer, Beef, American Crime Story) or one that I could completely support before the awards (The Queen's Gambit, Chernobyl). At the end of the day Adolescence strikes me as a step backwards compared to the other contenders in this category as well the ones that make up the majority of the other acting nominees. What it reminds me of, honestly, are the kinds of films the Oscars gives over the years: movies such as CODA or Nomadland, works that you honor more because of their cultural significance then because they are entertaining. By and large Peak TV has avoided this trap in almost every major category with a few exceptions over the years. Adolescence is the first limited series that really seems like that and it strikes me as a troubling precedent, particularly when the overwhelming majority of series nominated dealt with dark subjects but remembered they were supposed to be entertaining first. (I'll mention a few of them in my predictions because it might be pertinent.)

So while I acknowledge that it will be one of the big winners in two weeks, I will go into more detail about who I personally want to win in the major categories than I have in my previous entries where I've managed to mostly remain objective.

Here endeth the lecture. Now here are the nominees.

 

Adolescence (Netflix) EXPERTS PICK. Pro: At this point all signs point to a coronation for Adolescence at the Emmys in a few weeks' time. It's already won the overwhelming majority of Best Limited Series awards in the last few months, from the Astras to the Gotham TV Awards to the Dorian Awards. And in a very short time it has become the third most watched show in Netflix's entire history. In a way that may be the greatest sign of just how incredible the appeal of this show is: Adolescence is the exact opposite of the kind of show you think about with 'Netflix and chill'. And despite my personal issues with it, I can't deny the many incredible aspects of it: the one shot takes, the way it looks at the dark side of an unthinkable attacks, the incredible levels of every single performance, the way that it looks even briefly at a terrifying reality that we are only now as a society coming to deal with. When you throw in the fact that Netflix has won the last two consecutive limited series awards (and three of the last four) all signs point to an overwhelming triumph. Con: For all the incredible nature of Adolescence it is one of those series that often gets nominated because of its significance rather than its appeal. Indeed in 2019 everyone was certain When They See Us was going to sweep the Limited Series Emmys and it ended up being trounced by Chernobyl. It's unlikely to happen here but there is precedent.

Black Mirror (Netflix) Pro: This extraordinary anthology series has in fact won multiple Emmys in the Best TV movie category over its long run. This is the first time it has ever been recognized in the limited series category which makes you wonder why it took them that long to realize it. And while the overall quality of the episodes was considered less potent than previous ones, when it was good –  most powerfully in its sequel to U.S.S McAllister and the exceptional 'Common People' – it was both a mirror to our society and a look at the reality of the future. At its best this is as close as the 21^st century has gotten to a Twilight Zone and it deserves recognition. Con: Even the most devoted fans of the series admit overall its quality was erratic compared to previous years. I suspect they were as surprised as critics to see the show nominated this year.

Dying for Sex (Hulu) Pro: This should have been the most depressing show of all the nominees in this category; instead it was not only the funniest but also the most life-affirming. And yes, this was a show where the lead character was diagnosed with a recurrence of terminal cancer in the first ten minutes. But this was also one of the funniest shows of the 2024-2025 season and in many ways the most daring. Michelle Williams gave one of the most hysterical performances in her career as she decided to spend her last months on earth chasing the perfect orgasm. She was supported by a marvelous group of supporting players, including the incomparable Jenny Slate and Rob Delaney in a show that made you wonder if comedy is easier than death if you combine the two. Certainly the final episode where Michelle Williams headed towards the end with a hallucinatory fantasy of paintings and floating genitalia was something more TV series need frankly. It was so wonderful watching everything unfold. Con: Basically it's not Adolescence. That's the real problem with every nominee in this category.

Monsters: The Erik and Lyle Menendez Story (Netflix) Pro: Ryan Murphy returned to a formula with the second season of his series that was more familiar to those who'd seen the first season of American Crime Story, with which it had many historical parallels. Led by an incredible cast of actors you spent the first third of the season trying to understand what had happened, the second third believing that the brothers had motivation for what they did and the final third convinced that they were, in fact, exactly what the title referred to. Coming away from this series I am now more convinced than ever that the jury made the right decision – and I'm gratified the parole board confirmed it. There's no way anyone could come away with the show and not be convinced who the real victims were and that justice was served. That some came away with the possibility of room for doubt also shows just good a story teller Murphy and his crew of writers are. Con: This would be my choice of the Netflix limited series to win in this category. We all know which one is.

The Penguin (HBO) MY PICK. Pro: Lost in all the acclaim for Adolescence was the fact that this show was not only the most nominated Limited Series in the category but the second most nominated series by the Emmys, period. And it in  a perfect world it would dominate the awards show itself. Using the foundation of The Batman the creators chose to tell the story of Oz Cobb to create an antihero drama that redefined what any comic book based series  - indeed any show based of intellectual property – could be capable of. Colin Farrell channeled Tony Soprano as we saw him playing the man of the people card in order to give lie to the fact that he was born a monster and will always be one. Supported by an incredible cast, from Cristin Milioti to Rhenzy Feliz to Diedre O'Connell, The Penguin was a triumph on every conceivable level. We saw all of the horrors of Gotham City that Batman almost always misses and how people like the Penguin can rise to power in the first place. This was the first show I would love to see a sequel to and it absolutely deserves every prize it gets. Con: Apart from the problem I listed above, The Penguin has the issue of being based on a comic book. The Emmys have been more willing to recognize comic book based series across the board in recent years (Watchmen, Wandavision) but it's still a hard barrier to cross.

 

My Prediction: I expect Adolescence to win the grand prize but I also think The Penguin will win more total Emmys overall.

Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series/TV Movie. We all know who's going to win but it is an incredibly strong field – as it usually is.