My Attempts To Predict The 2024 Astra TV Awards, Part 1: All Things Drama

 

 

Well, here we are friends. Next to the Critics Choice Awards we have reached my favorite awards show when it comes to television. They’re only four years old but already they have become pretty close to the gold standard for how all television awards should proceed going forward. I speak, as my readers know, of the Astra (formerly HCA) TV awards.

First of all, yes like with the Emmys we’ve already had one for 2024 as a result of the strikes that crippled Hollywood last summer. And as I reported the awards show was much less entertaining and fun last January for the simple fact of timing. The Astras decided to move their awards to January to get in under the wire for the Emmys. Unfortunately they chose to schedule their awards the day after the 2024 Golden Globes. The lion’s share of the winners and nominees didn’t show up. That didn’t mean, however, that they were any less skilled when it came to the actual winners, recognizing such standouts as Will Trent, Party Down and The Boys along with the more conventional winners such as Succession and The Bear, that they showed independence by giving prizes to Pedro Pascal, Rhea Seehorn and Christina Ricci along with Jeremy Allan White and Elizabeth Debicki and that they weren’t still capable of having ties, having Ayo Edebiri share her prize with Ricci for Wednesday and Debicki share her prize for The Crown with Jeri Ryan for Star Trek: Picard.

I believe that since the awards are back at their duly appointed time in August that this year’s ceremonies will actually be as much fun as the awards the same way they were for the first two years. It remains a question how many people will show up: they were remote the first year and they had remote acceptance speeches the second as well but I suspect it will still be fun.

I’ve never had great luck predicting the winners here but as I’ve said and will keep saying, that’s part of the fun. The Astras have made it clear they have their vision for TV which has frankly been superior to any awards show but the Critics Choice Awards to this point in history. And how can you not love an awards show that is not only willing to divide its nominees among streaming, cable and broadcast but actually is still willing to let network TV dominate more than a few categories? They’re always on my Christmas Card list.

So I’m going to do what I’ve done for every other awards show and see where it goes. I always love it when they prove me right, I’m just as thrilled when they prove me wrong.

I’ll start with Drama and I’ll focus on Broadcast and cable first.

 

BEST BROADCAST NETWORK DRAMA SERIES.

While it could very well go to The Good Doctor I suspect that it will come down to one of the two most nominated network shows both of which are among my favorites of 2024: Elsbeth and Will Trent. Will Trent did win last year but to this point the Astras hasn’t done a lot of repeating among any of his major winners. (Then again, it is pretty young.)

I’ve giving a slight edge to Will Trent though I won’t lie I loved to see Elsbet win.

Should Win: Elsbeth.

Will Win: Will Trent.

 

BEST CABLE DRAMA SERIES

There are only six nominees in this category and interestingly enough, none of them is Shogun. For whatever reasons that series is nominated in the streaming category even though it aired in FX first. I’ll be dealing with streaming dramas in the second half of this article.

I’m not going to lie; I would love it if Billions won the prize. It’s been one of favorite series of the 2010s and it was criminally ignored by every major awards group. It would be a fitting salute if it went out here – and the Astras was willing to do so for such series as This is Us already. But I’m going to go with the safer choice and that is The Gilded Age. Of course safer doesn’t mean just as deserving if not more so.

Should Win: Billions.

Will Win: The Gilded Age.

 

BEST ACTOR IN A NETWORK OR CABLE DRAMA

A footnote: with the exception of two of the performers in The Gilded Age, none of the nominees in any of these categories are eligible for Emmys. This will mean this category will have no influence on the Emmys but it also means some very deserving winners might be crowed.

I would love to see Paul Giamatti win for his extraordinary work in Billions. His performance as Chuck Rhoades was one of the great character pieces and it deserves recognition. I’d also like to see Morgan Spector prevail for his exceptional work in The Gilded Age. But with no compass to guide me in this category, I’m going to go for my personal favorite Ramon Rodriguez in Will Trent. I think he has a slightly better chance because he received nominations from other critics groups and that might be enough to carry him over the top.

Should Win: Giamatti.

Will Win: Rodriguez (?)

 

BEST ACTRESS IN A BROADCAST/CABLE DRAMA

Another very strong field and there are many choices I think worthy. My personal preferences would be one of the two Carries in this category: Preston for Elsbeth and Coon for The Gilded Age. Both are two of the greatest actress who have worked in TV for the past decade; both have been sorely lacking in recognition from the Emmys (Preston has won for her guest work). We also can’t rule out the possibility of Emma Stone winning for The Curse. This series was a heavy favorite for nominations but was skunked by the Emmys completely. Considering many thought Stone had a good chance to win an Emmy along with her Oscar, that baffled the masses.

Personally I would rather see Preston win. But I’d be overjoyed to see Coon finally give an acceptance speech. Considering she’s also one of the few nominees in either category with a corresponding Emmy nomination, I think this will give her a slight edge.

Should Win: Preston/Coon.

Will Win: Coon.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A BROADCAST/CABLE DRAMA

Well we have no compass to lead us here either and the fact that we have a collection of some of the greatest character actors in history I have no idea who they’ll go too. So I’m going to rank this on personal preference.

The three nominees I most want to see win are, alphabetically, Ernie Hudson for Quantum Leap, Nathan Lane for The Gilded Age and Wendell Pierce for Elsbeth. All three men have been among my favorite character actors throughout the era of Peak TV and before. All are long overdue recognition for an award, particularly Hudson and Pierce. Hudson’s been owed once since OZ, Pierce since The Wire. Lane was nominated multiple times for Emmys and finally won one last year. However many strongly thought his work on The Gilded Age would earn him a nomination and the fact that he was ignored was one of the bigger surprises.

It's a tough call but in this case I’m going to follow my heart. I want to see Pierce win more than anything. He brought the dignity to Elsbeth that has otherwise would be lacking and I always want to see an actor from The Wire win anything. I’m think with any of the other winners for the record but Pierce has my heart.

Should Win: Pierce.

Wiil Win: They’re All Good Choices Really.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A BROADCAST OR CABLE DRAMA

This one comes down to two of my favorite character actresses of all time: Christine Baranski for The Gilded Age and Sonja Sohn for Will Trent. And much as I’d like to see another performer from The Wire I think Baranski has this in the bag. It’s not just the corresponding Emmy nomination; it’s the fact that she’s been one of the pre-eminent actresses of the television in the 21^st century and has yet to win a single award for its which is ridiculous. This is one of the few awards that might happen on Emmy night and I’m fine with it.

Should Win/Will Win: Baranski.

 

BEST DIRECTING AND WRITING IN A BROADCAST OR CABLE DRAMA

In writing, much as I’d like to see Found win here I’m going to go with The Gilded Age in this case. For directing, I’m going to go with the season finale of The Curse. Love it or hate it, you can’t deny it wasn’t a triumph when it came to direction.

 

Now on to streaming dramas which will be more complicated.

 

BEST STREAMING DRAMA

For reasons that defy logic despite the faction Shogun aired on FX first, it is in this category because it also aired on Hulu. I don’t understand it, but here it is. But of course the overwhelming favorite at the Emmys will win here, correct?

Anywhere else, yes. Not the Astras. In their first year of existence they gave three of the four acting awards in this category to The Crown which ended up sweeping the Emmys. However they gave Best Streaming Drama to The Mandalorian. The big winner in 2022 was Severance which basically went home empty handed on Emmy night. And last year when many (myself included) thought The Crown would dominate the big winner turned out to be The Boys. So I’m not certain Shogun will win.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that this year the Astras will recognize The Crown for its final season just as they did for This is Us in its last season. I also have my own issues with Shogun being in this category; the fact that it did poorly here compared to the Emmys makes me lean this way.

Should Win: Shogun.

Will Win: The Crown.

 

BEST ACTOR IN A STREAMING DRAMA

Strangely enough two of the Emmy nominees Idris Elba and Dominic West aren’t here but Colin Farrell and Tom Hiddleston are. Go figure. I think this will still come down to the two major heavies in this category: Hiroyuki Sanada for Shogun and Gary Oldman for Slow Horses.

If Oldman wasn’t the only nominee for his series I’d say he has more of a chance but since he is Sanada is as victorious at the Astras as his character was on the battlefield.

Should Win: Oldman/Sanada.

Will Win: Sanada.

 

BEST ACTRESS IN A STREAMING DRAMA

This is a tough one as most of the Emmy nominees are in this category. I’d like to see either Jennifer Aniston or Reese Witherspoon win in this category but The Morning Show hasn’t had much luck here. I think it will come down to Anna Sawai for Shogun or Imelda Staunton for The Crown. While I’d personally prefer if Staunton won for the final episode as Elizabeth II Sawai has been on a tear the last couple of months and I think she gets this easily.

Should Win/Will Win: Sawai.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A STREAMING SERIES

With no presence from Shogun here, this is a wide open category. Four of the actors nominated here were in this category at the Emmys: the three actors from The Morning Show and Jonathan Pryce from The Crown. Billy Crudup is the heavy favorite in the Emmys this year and he’s already won the Critics Choice Award, so he has an edge. But the presence of Jon Hamm and Mark Duplass could very well split the vote in the same way the heavy presence of the cast of Succession in this category gave him a surprise win at the Critics’ Choice.

I’m giving him a narrow edge anyway but don’t rule out the possibility of Jonathan Pryce as an upset.

Should Win: Crudup/Pryce.

Will Win: Crudup.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A STREAMING DRAMA SERIES

The easier category of the night, just as likely with the Emmys. Elizabeth Debicki has won every award in sight in the past year for her work as Princess Diana in the final season of The Crown: the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice Award, even a surprise victory at the SAG Awards. She won in this category last year, tying with Jeri Ryan. And it’s worth noting the previous performer to play Diana on The Crown Emma Corrin also won back in 2021, albeit for Best Actress. All that remains to be seen is if Debicki will be there to accept it this time.

Should Win/Will Win: Debicki.

 

BEST WRITING AND DIRECTING IN A STREAMING SERIES

If any of the other episodes in Shogun were nominated than the first one – Crimson Sky, for example – I’d give it to win in both categories.  I still think it will win for Direction – the series was too well directed not too but I’m less sure for writing. It’s possible the series finale for The Crown or the pilot for Mr. & Mrs. Smith will prevail.

 

GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA

As  I mentioned before, the Astra doesn’t differentiate between categories in Guest Acting. And as I’ve seen eight of the ten nominated performances I feel free to make educated guesses.

Personally I would like to see Mark-Paul Gosselaar win for his work in Found or John Ortiz for his superb stint in Will Trent. But I think it is far more likely to go to one of the nominees for Mr. and Mrs. Smith. Most fans thought Ron Perlman’s episode was one of the best of 2024, and considering he was the only nominee here not nominated by the Emmys I’m giving him the edge.

Should Win: Gosselaar.

Will Win: Perlman.

 

BEST GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA

I’ve also seen seven of the nominated performances here. I would prefer if Susan Kelechi Watson or Retta won for their memorable stints on Will Trent or Elsbeth respectively. They not only gave extraordinary performances but both were part of brilliant television series and got not even a nomination from the Emmys for their work.

But once again I must go for Mr. and Mrs. Smith. And in this case I’m going for another Mrs. Smith: Parker Posey. She’s been one of favorite indie queens for a long time and she is as deserving of a trophy as Watson or Retta.

Should Win: Watson/Retta.

Will Win: Posey.

Okay. I covered a lot of ground tonight. Tomorrow I move on to comedy.