Tuesday, August 27, 2024

My Prediction for the 2024 Emmys Week 2, Part 2: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama

 

Four of the greatest acting talents in TV history plus two of the most brilliant international actors of all time equals the most thrilling category of this group. It’s likely we all know the winner in advance but it’s worth closer analysis.

 

Idris Elba, Hijack. Odds: 7-1. For Playing: Sam Nelson, a passenger on a plane that’s just been taken over by terrorists. Pro: Stringer Bell. John Luther. Nelson Mandela. Heimdall. Macavity (okay, we’ll forget about that one.). Elba has been ignored by the Emmys for his breakthrough role but thankfully not for his other iconic one: he’s been nominated for four Best Actors in a Limited Series or TV movie for that one. But somehow one of the greatest actors of this century – full stop – has yet to receive an Emmy. And in Hijack he actually gets to do something he’s rarely gotten to do in all his years of TV acting – play an action hero. Elba has been a favorite of millions for 20 years (!) and its long past time he was honored. Con: Unfortunately Elba’s nomination is the only one Hijack got and there’s an argument the Emmys got it wrong. Many would have preferred to see either Cosmo Jarvis or Morgan Spector in this category. It’s not going to be his year.

 

Donald Glover, Mr. and Mrs. Smith. Odds: 5-1.For Playing: John, trying to deal with his new job and his new partner in their career in espionage. Pro: Glover takes on a role that is very different from his ones in Community and Atlanta, a character who starts out as an action hero and a romantic lead. Glover as always then undercuts his character by showing that he’s not nearly as skilled as his new wife at the job and that so much of their marriage, which starts out great, quickly begins to fall apart because of their various differences. Glover continues to show his range as a performer, demonstrating a new level of depth and darkness that those of us who saw him Atlanta knew he was capable of but this time in a different more international setting. Glover has been one of the great talents in television history for nearly two decades as he joins the ranks of actors who have been nominated for acting in both a drama and a comedy. He deserves to join the few who have won in both categories. Con: It’s not like Glover is exactly lacking in recognition from the Emmys – he has won Best Lead Actor in a Comedy and has received multiple nominations for writing as well. And as the only previous winner of an Emmy in this category the Emmys might want to give it to a different face.

 

Walton Goggins, Fallout. Odds: 13-2. For Playing: Cooper Howard/The Ghoul, the reluctant monstrous guide in a post-apocalyptic world. Pro: Goggins has been part of some of the greatest television shows in history from The Shield and Justified to Vice Principals and The Righteous Gemstones. He’s starred in some of the best  limited series of recent years, most recently George & Tammy. So how in the name of all that’s holy is the only the second Emmy nomination he’s ever gotten? (It’s not even the biggest robbery in this category.) Here he gets two play closer to a hero than he’s ever done in twenty years of superb work on TV. He gets to do everything we’ve seen him do in TV, be an action hero, show his comic side, show his heart, show his dramatic side. And he has to do in an unrecognizable face mask, though the series is nice enough to show what he looked like before he became an irradiated monster. Goggins has been one of the greatest talents in TV history. He really deserves to win. Con: Awards shows haven’t treated Goggins any more fairly than the world of Fallout has treated his character. Bit on the plus side the series is coming back for a second season which means he’ll almost certainly have more bites at the apple.

 

Gary Oldman, Slow Horses. 0dds: 4-1.For Playing: Jackson Lamb, the slovenly legend of Slough House reluctantly leading his team of misfit agents through another crisis in MI-6. Pro: Oldman is the only performer in this category who received nominations in other awards shows over the past year, earning both a Golden Globe and BAFTA nomination for Best Actor. And is something that I’ve been watching Oldman all my life and that he’s been actor for even longer and I ‘ve never seen him having for fun than he has playing Jackson, a man who has absolutely no f’s left to give, who puts up a façade of not caring for anybody or anything but has compassion in his heart for the agents in his care and who is the hero we need and asked for in these trouble times. It is fitting the man who has giving life to such iconic characters as Commissioner Gordon and George Smiley has taken this role on and he clearly revels in another, slightly less known, iconic character. And we did see some of the sad parts of his life as well this season when he revealed the truth to Catherine Standish about what happened to her husband and caused a break in a decades long friendship. Oldman was the overwhelming favorite in this category until Shogun joined the ranks of the Best Drama series. He could still prevail. Con: The Emmys have only recently discovered Slow Horses and they did so in a period when all of last year’s nominees are ineligible. Oldman’s good enough that he’ll be around for a while, the question is will the Emmys consider it?

 

Hiroyuki Sanada, Shogun. Odds: 10-3.For Playing: Toranaga, a Japanese feudal lord trying to find a way against his fellow regents who are trying to destroy him. Pro: The new imagining of Shogun would not have been possible with Sanada, one of the most iconic actors in Japan. He helped get it made and was walking around the set with his dog-eared copy of the book at all times. And his work as Toranaga was without question one of the highpoints of 2024, an incredible tour de force of a performance in more ways than one. We saw Toranaga play a man who seemed forced into his events, reluctantly seeking power, manipulating those around him, appearing to be a man emotionally dead. We saw in his penultimate appearance that it was merely an act and then in the final episode we learned the true nature of his character and it was troubling the man we thought a reluctant hero was in fact as ruthless, manipulative and bloodthirsty as all the people he’d pretended he disdained. It was one of the great works of art of 2024 worthy of an Emmy. Con: The only argument may be the fact that FX chose to submit this show in the Best Drama category could work against him.

 

Dominic West, The Crown. Odds: 11-2. For Playing: Prince Charles, heir to the throne trying to convince the world that he can marry the woman he loves and not undo the monarchy. Pro:  His first Emmy nomination. Can you believe it? How is the man who created the iconic Jimmy McNulty and has been part of so many of the most undervalued series of all time on both sides of the Atlantic – The Hour and The Affair are just the most obvious examples – has only received his first nomination for The Crown. And he should have been nominated last year. In taking on the role of the aging and increasingly impatient Prince Charles West gets to do something we rarely get see him do: speak with his natural accent. Watching him play Charles as he tries to prepare to rule a decaying monarchy and try to find a way to marry the woman he’s loved his whole life and wants to see queen, West continues the grand tradition of superb, deep performances on this master class of a series. West never hesitates to shows the worst sides of Charles’s character – his harsh judgment of his ex-wife, his frustration at being stuck as a placeholder, and his happiness at the end of the series when he finally achieves one of his goals. Considering that his predecessor in this role Josh O’Connor received an Emmy for this when he was nominated, it might bid well for one of the great actors of our time. Con: The last two seasons of The Crown have drawn far harsher criticism then the first four, fairly or unfairly. West has been flagging in momentum since the awards season started and has dropped considerably. It looks, just like the character he plays, West will have to wait for his time.

 

PREDICTION: Much as I’d like to see West or Oldman win, look for Sanada to take this in a battle that is far easier than the one his character had to wage to become Shogun.

 

Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama. This one could be trickier than it looks.

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