Wednesday, August 28, 2024

My Predictions For the 2024 Emmys, Week 2, Part 3: Outstanding Lead Actress in A Drama

 

Now is as good a time as any to mention that the Astras were delayed from their broadcast last Sunday and have been postponed for the immediate future. This didn’t bother me to much in comedy because the lion’s share of the awards over the past year had the majority of favorites.

It’s a different story with drama. Given that the lion’s share of the awards for both drama and acting categories all went to Succession (with some exceptions I’ll list later) I’ve mostly been flying without a map when it comes to predicting winners. I know what Gold Derby gives the odds as but I prefer something more to hang it on than that. I was hoping that in drama at least the Astras would lend some clarity. Their postponement shot that idea to sunshine.

So in this category, like most of the others, you’ll have to deal with my best guess. And it is worth noting some of the awards in the past few months may have helped. Anyway, back to business.

Five formidable actresses with a long history in television and film compete against a relative newcomer to American audiences who made a hell of an impression. I think the winner is likely to all of us but here we go regardless.

 

Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show. Odds: 5-1. For Playing: Alex Levy, a broadcaster at a morning show dealing with challenges professionally and personally. Pro: Aniston was the heavy favorite for the Best Actress Emmy in 2020, having won the SAG Award for Best Actress in a Drama that year. She has since lost to Zendaya twice for Euphoria which in my opinion is three times too many. Aniston was nominated for a Golden Globe, Critics Choice and SAG award this year: she lost the first two trophies to Sarah Snook and the last to Elizabeth Debicki. (More on that later) She did win the People’s Choice Award for Drama TV star of the Year. And its hard to argue that few performers have shown more range than Aniston in taking on the role of Alex, trying to deal with the takeover of her network, various scandals and even going into space. Aniston is more overdue a win than most of the other previous nominees and she has been moving up. Con: This has not been a show that has done well in the Emmys overall and the fact that it earned so many nominations this year is almost certainly due to the strike (and overkill on the Acting branch’s part) I’d like to see Aniston win eventually but I doubt it’s this year.

 

Carrie Coon, The Gilded Age. Odds: 7-1. For Playing: Bertha Russell, a New York socialite determined to shaped 1880s society to bend to her will. Pro: Much like Walton Goggins and Dominic West in the Outstanding Lead Actor category, Carrie Coon has been a force in Peak TV ever since she broke on to the scene for her work as Nora on The Leftovers. She’s was the force of good in Season 3 of Fargo and a force of evil in Season 2 of The Sinner. It’s not quite a travesty that this is only her second Emmy nomination (her career in TV only starting for intents and purposes in The Leftovers) but it does seem odd considering how much the Emmys recognizes the kinds of characters she plays. And as Bertha she takes on the role of an upstart in 19th century New York, being shutout oddly by rich and powerful women. You wouldn’t consider Bertha a feminist the way so many other previous winners have been but she is determined to make the world bow to her will in a way that makes so many of these period dramas seem like pretenders. And she is capable of showing humanity – such as when she learns of the possibility that her husband may have betrayed her as well as being as ruthless as all men were to their children. Coon’s going to win in this category eventually. I know it. Con: Like so many of the nominees for The Gilded Age she is present mainly because of the strike that stopped so many other HBO series in their tracks. But I know she’ll be back soon, if not for this series than for the next season of The White Lotus.

 

Maya Erskine, Mr. and Mrs. Smith. Odds: 11-2. For Playing: Jane, a woman in a new marriage trying to deal with her job as a spy and a wife. Pro: I was enraptured by the work of Maya Erskine in Pen15 one of the more unsung comedies of the last few years. Erskine (along with her co-star and co-creator Anna Konkle) managed to embrace being an eighth grader so well you almost forgot she was in her thirties. But even that versatility didn’t prepare me for her work as Jane on Mr. and Mrs. Smith. In this version the wife is the more competent and stronger personality than the husband, colder and less receptive, angrier in a way that John just isn’t. As the season progressed she became more efficient and brutal – and clearly she’s headed up the ladder and he’s heading down. Her work as, if anything, more revelatory than Glover’s and since we don’t know if either of them will be back for Season 2, we might not get another chance. Con:  Of all the series in this category this show was the lightest (relatively) in tone and that rarely works for actress in this category.

 

Anna Sawai, Shogun. Odds: 10-3. For Playing: Mariko, a Japanese woman waiting for death who finds a new purpose when her lord calls her to service. Pro: This past May Sawai took the Best Performance in a Drama award from the Television Critics Association. With good reason. This series may have been set in feudal Japan, but it became clear very quickly that the women were the most fascinating characters and the ones with more power then even the men were acknowledging. Sawai’s version of Mariko was darker and edgier than the original limited series and her arc was one of the most memorable and heartbreaking in the entire series. The penultimate episode of season 1 ‘Crimson Sky has the highest ranking of Season 1 on imdb.com and with good reason, it is all about Mariko’s arrival in Osaka, her determination to make a stand, her fighting for her freedom, her near execution, her miraculous reprieve and most tragically, her meeting her fate on her own terms. Sawai’s work is arguably the best dramatic performance of the 2023-2024 season. It more than deserves a win. Con: There’s no reason against her winning – just some good reasons for her competition as well.

 

Imelda Staunton, The Crown. Odds: 4-1.For Playing: Queen Elizabeth II, facing the fifth decade of her reign in a world that increasingly has left her – and the institution it represents – behind. Pro: In her second and  last season on The Crown as a regular Claire Foy won Best Actress in a Drama for playing Elizabeth. In her second and last season on The Crown Olivia Colman won Best Actress in a Drama for playing Elizabeth. Now it is Staunton’s second and last season and we all know the Emmys is about history. More to the point Staunton absolutely should have been nominated for Outstanding Actress in a Drama last year (nominating Elisabeth Moss was a huge blunder) and this will be the last chance to honor The Crown in any category. And strictly speaking from the critical lens Staunton, perhaps more in her portrayal of Elizabeth than any other character during the course of this series, best demonstrates how much ‘the system’ erodes year after year, decade after decade, the ability of the individual to change it to become part of it. It’s been hard to watch Staunton over the last two seasons because we remember the earlier version who wanted to change the system as a young woman and now is so locked into it that she’s essentially a figurine gathering dust with peeling paint. We don’t see the Queen die at the end of the series: the institution has sapped her of all her force. It’s riveting performance and the fact that Staunton’s moving up in the odds shows voters think so as well. Con: There’s been quite a bit of backlash against the final two seasons of The Crown and Staunton more than any other performer has taken the brunt of it, rather than being seen as a natural outgrowth of Morgan’s story. More to the point two of the major dramatic choices that Morgan used in the final season involved Elizabeth having conversations with ghosts, something that was polarizing. This will hurt Staunton more than any other nominee for The Crown.

 

Reese Witherspoon, The Morning Show. Odds: 7-1. For Playing: Bradley Jackson, the co-anchor at a network morning show. Pro: I make no secret that I’m one of Witherspoon’s biggest fans when it comes to TV and I think she’s been underappreciated by her work by the Emmys over the past five years. I’m still bitter that she was in three incredible series in 2019-2020 – The Morning Show, Big Little Lies and Little Fires Everywhere – and somehow went 0 for 3. The Emmys have been making up for it: this is her second straight nomination for this show and just as with Aniston, it’s been fascinating to watch her work. Witherspoon has aged into one of the most brilliant actresses  and TV has done her a great service the past decade. It’s long past time she gets a win. Con: But if anyone from this series is going to win in this category it’s going to be Aniston. Witherspoon has never gotten as much recognition for this series as so many of her co-stars have: she’s only gotten one Golden Globe nomination and one SAG nomination. Like so many of the brilliant shows she’s been a part of it, it seems Reese’s fate to be eclipsed by a brighter sun.

Prediction: Save an upset by Staunton, Sawai walks to this one easily.

 

Tomorrow I will deal with Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama. Things are going to get tricky there for me.

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