Now is as good
a time as any to mention that the Astras were delayed from their broadcast last
Sunday and have been postponed for the immediate future. This didn’t bother me
to much in comedy because the lion’s share of the awards over the past year had
the majority of favorites.
It’s a
different story with drama. Given that the lion’s share of the awards for both
drama and acting categories all went to Succession (with some exceptions I’ll
list later) I’ve mostly been flying without a map when it comes to predicting
winners. I know what Gold Derby gives the odds as but I prefer something more
to hang it on than that. I was hoping that in drama at least the Astras would
lend some clarity. Their postponement shot that idea to sunshine.
So in this category,
like most of the others, you’ll have to deal with my best guess. And it is
worth noting some of the awards in the past few months may have helped. Anyway,
back to business.
Five formidable
actresses with a long history in television and film compete against a relative
newcomer to American audiences who made a hell of an impression. I think the
winner is likely to all of us but here we go regardless.
Jennifer Aniston,
The Morning Show. Odds: 5-1. For Playing: Alex Levy, a
broadcaster at a morning show dealing with challenges professionally and
personally. Pro: Aniston was the heavy favorite for the Best Actress Emmy in
2020, having won the SAG Award for Best Actress in a Drama that year. She has
since lost to Zendaya twice for Euphoria which in my opinion is three
times too many. Aniston was nominated for a Golden Globe, Critics Choice and
SAG award this year: she lost the first two trophies to Sarah Snook and the
last to Elizabeth Debicki. (More on that later) She did win the People’s Choice
Award for Drama TV star of the Year. And its hard to argue that few performers
have shown more range than Aniston in taking on the role of Alex, trying to
deal with the takeover of her network, various scandals and even going into
space. Aniston is more overdue a win than most of the other previous nominees
and she has been moving up. Con: This has not been a show that has done
well in the Emmys overall and the fact that it earned so many nominations this
year is almost certainly due to the strike (and overkill on the Acting branch’s
part) I’d like to see Aniston win eventually but I doubt it’s this year.
Carrie Coon, The
Gilded Age. Odds: 7-1. For Playing: Bertha Russell,
a New York socialite determined to shaped 1880s society to bend to her will. Pro:
Much like Walton Goggins and Dominic West in the Outstanding Lead Actor
category, Carrie Coon has been a force in Peak TV ever since she broke on to
the scene for her work as Nora on The Leftovers. She’s was the force of
good in Season 3 of Fargo and a force of evil in Season 2 of The Sinner.
It’s not quite a travesty that this is only her second Emmy nomination (her
career in TV only starting for intents and purposes in The Leftovers)
but it does seem odd considering how much the Emmys recognizes the kinds of
characters she plays. And as Bertha she takes on the role of an upstart in 19th
century New York, being shutout oddly by rich and powerful women. You wouldn’t
consider Bertha a feminist the way so many other previous winners have been but
she is determined to make the world bow to her will in a way that makes so many
of these period dramas seem like pretenders. And she is capable of showing
humanity – such as when she learns of the possibility that her husband may have
betrayed her as well as being as ruthless as all men were to their children.
Coon’s going to win in this category eventually. I know it. Con: Like so
many of the nominees for The Gilded Age she is present mainly because of
the strike that stopped so many other HBO series in their tracks. But I know she’ll
be back soon, if not for this series than for the next season of The White
Lotus.
Maya Erskine, Mr.
and Mrs. Smith. Odds: 11-2. For Playing: Jane, a woman in a new marriage
trying to deal with her job as a spy and a wife. Pro: I was enraptured
by the work of Maya Erskine in Pen15 one of the more unsung comedies of
the last few years. Erskine (along with her co-star and co-creator Anna Konkle)
managed to embrace being an eighth grader so well you almost forgot she was in her
thirties. But even that versatility didn’t prepare me for her work as Jane on Mr.
and Mrs. Smith. In this version the wife is the more competent and stronger
personality than the husband, colder and less receptive, angrier in a way that
John just isn’t. As the season progressed she became more efficient and brutal –
and clearly she’s headed up the ladder and he’s heading down. Her work as, if
anything, more revelatory than Glover’s and since we don’t know if either of
them will be back for Season 2, we might not get another chance. Con: Of all the series in this category this
show was the lightest (relatively) in tone and that rarely works for actress in
this category.
Anna Sawai, Shogun.
Odds: 10-3. For Playing: Mariko, a Japanese woman waiting for
death who finds a new purpose when her lord calls her to service. Pro: This
past May Sawai took the Best Performance in a Drama award from the Television
Critics Association. With good reason. This series may have been set in feudal
Japan, but it became clear very quickly that the women were the most
fascinating characters and the ones with more power then even the men were acknowledging.
Sawai’s version of Mariko was darker and edgier than the original limited
series and her arc was one of the most memorable and heartbreaking in the
entire series. The penultimate episode of season 1 ‘Crimson Sky has the highest
ranking of Season 1 on imdb.com and with good reason, it is all about Mariko’s
arrival in Osaka, her determination to make a stand, her fighting for her
freedom, her near execution, her miraculous reprieve and most tragically, her
meeting her fate on her own terms. Sawai’s work is arguably the best dramatic
performance of the 2023-2024 season. It more than deserves a win. Con: There’s
no reason against her winning – just some good reasons for her competition as
well.
Imelda
Staunton, The Crown. Odds: 4-1.For Playing: Queen Elizabeth
II, facing the fifth decade of her reign in a world that increasingly has left
her – and the institution it represents – behind. Pro: In her second and
last season on The Crown as a
regular Claire Foy won Best Actress in a Drama for playing Elizabeth. In her
second and last season on The Crown Olivia Colman won Best Actress in a
Drama for playing Elizabeth. Now it is Staunton’s second and last season and we
all know the Emmys is about history. More to the point Staunton absolutely
should have been nominated for Outstanding Actress in a Drama last year (nominating
Elisabeth Moss was a huge blunder) and this will be the last chance to honor The
Crown in any category. And strictly speaking from the critical lens
Staunton, perhaps more in her portrayal of Elizabeth than any other character
during the course of this series, best demonstrates how much ‘the system’
erodes year after year, decade after decade, the ability of the individual to
change it to become part of it. It’s been hard to watch Staunton over the last
two seasons because we remember the earlier version who wanted to change the
system as a young woman and now is so locked into it that she’s essentially a figurine
gathering dust with peeling paint. We don’t see the Queen die at the end of the
series: the institution has sapped her of all her force. It’s riveting
performance and the fact that Staunton’s moving up in the odds shows voters
think so as well. Con: There’s been quite a bit of backlash against the
final two seasons of The Crown and Staunton more than any other
performer has taken the brunt of it, rather than being seen as a natural
outgrowth of Morgan’s story. More to the point two of the major dramatic
choices that Morgan used in the final season involved Elizabeth having
conversations with ghosts, something that was polarizing. This will hurt
Staunton more than any other nominee for The Crown.
Reese Witherspoon,
The Morning Show. Odds: 7-1. For Playing: Bradley Jackson,
the co-anchor at a network morning show. Pro: I make no secret that I’m one
of Witherspoon’s biggest fans when it comes to TV and I think she’s been
underappreciated by her work by the Emmys over the past five years. I’m still
bitter that she was in three incredible series in 2019-2020 – The Morning
Show, Big Little Lies and Little Fires Everywhere – and somehow went
0 for 3. The Emmys have been making up for it: this is her second straight
nomination for this show and just as with Aniston, it’s been fascinating to
watch her work. Witherspoon has aged into one of the most brilliant actresses and TV has done her a great service the past
decade. It’s long past time she gets a win. Con: But if anyone from this
series is going to win in this category it’s going to be Aniston. Witherspoon
has never gotten as much recognition for this series as so many of her co-stars
have: she’s only gotten one Golden Globe nomination and one SAG nomination.
Like so many of the brilliant shows she’s been a part of it, it seems Reese’s
fate to be eclipsed by a brighter sun.
Prediction: Save an upset by
Staunton, Sawai walks to this one easily.
Tomorrow I will
deal with Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama. Things are going to get
tricky there for me.
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