Thursday, August 29, 2024

My Predictions for the 2024 Emmys Week 2, Day 4: Outstanding Supporting Actor in A Drama

 

 

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA

Unlike many of the previous categories we have a frontrunner, albeit a slight one. But this one’s going to be trickier than usual given that one of the series has three nominees in it and another has two. We’ve seen in recent years in the Emmys that sometimes this can hurt qualified nominees (Game of Thrones, Better Call Saul) sometimes it doesn’t (Succession, The Crown) We’ll find out which is which this year. I should add that four of the nominees are among the actors I’ve admired the most over the years, particularly in television or in film. Here we go.

 

 

Tadanobu Asano, Shogun. Odds: 11-2. For Playing: Yabushige, the right hand man to Toranaga – for the moment. Pro: If there was a character who became a fan favorite during Shogun it was Yabushige. In a show where every character kept a poker face, it was often hysterical to see a character acknowledge how horrible his situation was and try to do everything he could to survive, which meant switching sides whenever possible. Asano’s work was among the comic highpoints of the show – and in the season finale, took on a note of tragedy when he realized how his lord had manipulated him, appreciated the marvel of his plan – but would still not be confided in even at death. Asano is more than deserving of a win. Con: Unlike his fellow nominees Asano doesn’t have this category to himself. And as we’ll see, there’s an excellent chance his surprise co-nominee could take enough votes to deny him the prize

Billy Crudup, The Morning Show. Odds: 5-1. For Playing: Cory Ellison, the executive producer dealing with the potential sail of the network he works on. Pro: Crudup is the only nominee in this category with a win from a previous awards show under his belt – he was the surprise winner of the Best Supporting Actor in a Drama at the Critics Choice Awards this past January, one of the few major awards Matthew MacFayden didn’t get last year. In a series with so many names in it, Crudup has been the unquestioned star, unflinching his ruthlessness, but somehow hysterical (and musical). While many have overall questioned the quality of this show, few deny the ability of Crudup to dominate the screen as Ellison. And considering that he was the last previous winner in this category on an awards show that loves to give repeats, it might pay off. Con: It has been four years since Crudup’s previous upset win in 2020 at the Emmys and many at the time questioned what was this show’s only win at the Emmys. Institutional memory may not be enough.

Mark Duplass, The Morning Show. Odds: 7-1. For Playing: Chip Black, working behind the scenes at TMS. Pro: Speaking strictly for myself I’ve been a huge admirer of Duplass as both a writer and a performer for the last decade. I’ve loved him in just about every TV series he’s done over the years, whether its his work on The League or the two short-lived series Togetherness, his guest role on The Mindy Project or Goliath, or his producing the superbly weird Room 104 anthology as well as his work for the superb Somebody Somewhere. He and his brother Jay (also criminally underrecognized for his own acting) have been the kings of independent films. I couldn’t be more thrilled that he is finally getting long, long overdue recognition for what is a relatively subtle role as Chip on The Morning Show. He more than deserves the nominations he gets. Con: Unfortunately it is the fate of a Duplass to be underappreciated and that is true on this show. One of his co-nominees are more likely to get it than him.

Jon Hamm, The Morning Show: Odds: 6-1. For Playing: Paul Marks, a billionaire CEO who becomes involved with Alex. Pro: Jon Hamm never really left television when Mad Men ended but he officially returned during 2023 and has been nominated for both his major roles. We know we shouldn’t trust Paul from the moment we meet him but it’s the gift of Hamm as a performer that we, like Alex, are lured in by his charm and good looks. We want to trust him even when we shouldn’t. But when he offers to throw UBA  lifeline some are willing to give it, even as the warning signs flare and then at the end of the season we learn all too well our first instincts were right. Hamm has this century living in the grey area, even when he’s clear evil. His rugged good looks and charm carry him. Plus you know, one Emmy out of 12 nominations? I grant the difficulty of the competition but he’s not up against Bryan Cranston this year. Con: No, he’s up against another brilliant actor who happens to have the initials B.C. Maybe he’ll have better luck in Best Limited Series (though if anything, the competition there is even worse.)  

Takehiro Hira, Shogun. Odds: 13-2. For Playing: Kazunari, trying to manipulate himself in order to rule Feudal Japan. Pro: Few suspected that Hira, among a superb ensemble would be among the nominees. But there was much to admire in Hira’s work as Kazunari, Toranaga’s chief nemesis in his fight for power. Hira was, as we saw, just as skilled at manipulation as Toranaga was and as we saw throughout much of the series he was just as capable of holding the upper hand. It was only when he decided to destroy Mariko that he was outmaneuvered. Unlike most of the other characters, Hira could return for the second season and I’d more than welcome it just to see what he does next. Con: If there’s a favorite from Shogun in this category, it’s Asano by all measure. How fitting it would be for the man who worked for power to rob his rival of support.

Jack Lowden, Slow Horses: Odds: 13-2. For Playing: River Cartwright, the youngest member of Slough House, still not used to his assignment. Pro: I wasn’t sure Lowden would be able to get a nomination for his incredible work, given that this is traditionally a category that often recognizes older character actors rather than young blood. But the cream rose to the top and Lowden managed to grab a nomination. Jackson Lamb may be the main lead of Slow Horses but Lowden is its action hero, always in motion, always on the front lines and inevitably ending up taking the most blows, physically, metaphorically and when it comes to Jackson Lamb, verbally. In this season he has come to the realization that his beloved grandfather, a legend in MI-6 is beginning to suffer from the first stages of dementia and become a liability for the agency – and himself. (Those who have read the books know what the inevitable fate for his grandfather will be.) Lowden is also invariably a source for a great deal of humor in this often hysterically funny series and such was the case. Good to see him here. Con: This is not going to be Lowden’s year by a long shot given the level of his competition. He can take with him that old cliché – ‘it’s an honor just to be nominated’ and with the likelihood that he will return to this front again.

Jonathan Pryce, The Crown. Odds: 6-1. For Playing: Prince Philip, the aging patriarch of the Windsor clan. Pro: Over the last few years Pryce, a veteran of nearly four decades of acting, has been enjoying a late career renaissance. He has been nominated this year for both series he has appeared in for this role and for his work in Slow Horses. In both cases he should have been nominated previously and we can blame the glut of recognition for The White House and Succession last year for excluding him. Pryce is the third actor to play Philip in the series life and his predecessors Matt Smith in the first two seasons and Tobias Menzies in the second two were both nominated in this category in their final season (Menzies won). And in a way there is the most contrast between his Philip and the ones we’ve seen in the previous two incarnation. We can’t recognize the young man who chafed against the system in the first two seasons or the man who was still trying to be a good husband and father in the next two. Now we see an old man, considering himself the safeguard of the system, even more of a relic than his wife is, refusing to acknowledge how much time has passed him and the system he represents by. Pryce has been one of our best character actors for nearly half a century and is more than overdue recognition. Con: Time has passed The Crown by as well. The reviews for the final two seasons have not been kind as they were when it was at its peak. Pryce may have a better chance of getting a win for Slow Horses – but I’ll get to that later.

Prediction: My personal preference would be for Hamm or Pryce, but I’m giving the edge to Crudup – albeit with less confidence then many of the other nominees.

 

Tomorrow I wrap up drama with Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama as well as the rest of the major categories.

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