Before we begin a reminder. Unlike the last two years where the Astras divided these awards, like Comedy and Drama, into Broadcast/Cable and Streaming, for reasons unknown they have returned to the format they did in their first year and are giving all Limited Series and TV movies awards in the same categories. However as an acknowledgement of that reality, there are ten nominees in every category.
I’m unsure of the
reason – it may have something to do with the work stoppage last year – but I’ll
try to modify my predictions accordingly by going into greater detail as to why
I’m predicting the winners and what I think will win.
BEST LIMITED SERIES
I will admit I would
like to see the Astras recognize one of the series the Emmys ignored for Best
Limited Series: Fellow Travelers or Apples Never Fall. Both
series were exceptional and more than deserved to be nominated. However I
believe it will go to one of the five series that were nominated for Best
Limited Series.
As I’ve mentioned
before I can’t in good conscience vote for True Detective: Night Country considering
I refused to acknowledge it for Best Limited Series as an Emmy nominee. I would
like to see Fargo win for its triumphant fifth season return but since
it wasn’t able to win for Season 4 (credit to the Astras for being the only
organization to nominate it in this category) I can’t see it winning. Lessons
in Chemistry looms as a dark horse but I think it will come down to one of two
Netflix series: Baby Reindeer and Ripley.
I acknowledge that both
were works of art, and both series are almost certainly going to be on my ten
best of 2024. Both were extremely different variations on the format: Baby
Reindeer was a variation of dark comedy mixed with stark drama; Ripley in
my opinion reinvented what a crime drama could be capable of. Both featured
extraordinary performances by their leading men. Both dealt with sexuality in
their own way. Baby Reindeer has a slight edge because it was
acknowledged by the TCA earlier this year – but since it won nothing from the
Dorians its momentum might be starting to flag. I think it still has enough of
an edge to win, but don’t rule out either Ripley or Fellow Travelers pulling
out an upset.
Should Win: Ripley/Fellow
Travelers.
Will Win: Baby
Reindeer.
I will skip TV movie
because I saw none of the nominees.
BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED
SERIES OR TV MOVIE
I would be thrilled if
Ewan McGregor was able to take home the prize for his exceptional work in A
Gentleman in Moscow. However I think it more likely it will go to one of
the four actors in this category with a corresponding Emmy nomination. (For
reasons I can’t comprehend the Astras ignored Capote Vs. The Swans in favor
of shows such as Fall of the House of Usher. Nobody’s perfect.)
Much as I’d like to see
Jon Hamm prevail in this category for his superb work on Fargo I think
this will come down to one of his three colleagues. Richard Gadd for Baby
Reindeer, Matt Bomer for Fellow Travelers and Andrew Scott for Ripley.
If you read my article on the Dorians you might know that all three of
these men competed in Best Lead in a Drama – and Bomer prevailed. Does that
give him an edge? I’m unsure but I will admit he is one of my preferences.
My favorites in this
category come down to either Bomer or Scott. It is a tough call but in this
case I think Andrew Scott will prevail. He has been gaining momentum in the Emmy
odds in Gold Derby (we’ll be covering that soon readers), he’s already given a
brilliant movie performance last year in All of Us Strangers that many critics
thought deserved an Oscar nomination and I think we’re all still irked that he
didn’t even get an Emmy nomination for Fleabag. When you add that his work
in Ripley was among the most restrained performances of his long career,
I think he’s earned it.
Should Win: Bomer/McGregor.
Will Win: Scott.
BEST ACTRESS IN A
LIMITED SERIES
Again I’d like to see
Annette Bening win for her incredible work in Apples Never Fall, a
performance the Emmys ignored. But again, it will likely go to one of the Emmy
nominees in this category – and this time there are only three with
corresponding nominations: Jodie Foster for True Detective, Brie Larson
for Lessons in Chemistry and Juno Temple for Fargo.
There are strong cases
to be made for all three. Temple was the only performer in Ted Lasso not
to walk away with an Emmy (it seems) and she has been one of the great talents
in television for the last few years: her work as the diminutive housewife
equivalent of a tiger shows her versatility. Foster was brilliant in her first
major role in television in nearly half a century and even if you didn’t like True
Detective I acknowledge it was a master class. Larson has received multiple
nominations leading up to the Emmys and were it not for the presence of Ali
Wong for Beef she would likely have won at least once.
I will acknowledge a preference
for Larson because her work in Lessons reminded us of what a great
actress we lost when she took on the mantle of the MCU. But I’ll give Foster a
slight edge and acknowledge she’s worthy.
Should Win:
Bening/Larson.
Will Win: Foster.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE
Here we have some
contrasts as there are nominees for two anthologies that weren’t given nominations
from the Emmys though they should have. Joe Keery more than deserved recognition
for Fargo and both Christopher Eccleston and Finn Bennett were superb in
Night Country. And with the absence of Treat Williams (for John Cena?
Really?) we have a narrow construct.
Tom Goodman-Hill’s performance
in Baby Reindeer was good but not as commanding as the major leads. Lewis
Pullman was superb in Lessons but he ended up gone too soon. In my
opinion this comes down to two actors: Jonathan Bailey for Fellow Travelers and
Robert Downey Jr for The Sympathizer.
Downey’s work was by
far the most demanding and worthy but considering that there has not been a lot
of corresponding love for it (this is the sole nomination it received) I think
Bailey wins this in a walk. And honestly he deserves too. His performance as
the innocent who is first led into the web of Hawk’s predatory relation and yet
become the person he always wanted to be was a powerful piece of acting. He has
already won a prize from the Critics Choice Awards and the Dorians. I think he
is headed for an Emmy and I hope this is the shape of things to come.
SHOULD WIN/WILL WIN:
Bailey.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE
Much as I’d like to see
either Alison Brie or Mary Elizabeth Winstead win, this will probably go to one
of the Emmy nominees. And this time it will take some work because six of the
seven nominated performers are here.
Lily Gladstone has
little chance given the lack of recognition for Under the Bridge. Dakota
Fanning’s work in Ripley may have been too subtle for some to recognize.
Kali Reis is a strong contender for her work in True Detective and Aja
Naomi King was superb in Lessons in Chemistry – she’s already won some
awards. And there is much to recommend both of the performers in Baby
Reindeer: Jessica Gunning for her incredible work as the broken Martha and
Nava Mau as the transgender woman who becomes involved with Gadd’s character
but can’t deal with his problems.
My personal preference
would be for King, I thought her work in Lessons was a revelation
compared to what I’d seen here do in How To Get Away With Murder. But I’m
giving the barest of edges to Gunning, whose currently the frontrunner for the
Emmys.
SHOULD WIN: Basically
Any of Them.
Will Win: Gunning.
BEST DIRECTING IN A LIMITED
SERIES
This should go to either
Steven Zallian for Ripley or Issa Lopes for True Detective. My
personal preference would be Zaillian because I’ve never been so amazed by the
magnificence of direction in a very long time. As for writing it will probably
go to Issa Lopez for True Detective or Richard Gadd for Baby
Reindeer, though I would prefer Fellow Travelers take the prize
there.
Now I’ll deal with some
of the other nominations that I want to weigh in. That means ignoring animation
and anime, though in the latter I wouldn’t mind if Scott Pilgrim Takes Off won.
For Best Documentary my
preference would be either Albert Brooks: Defending My Life or In
Restless Dreams: The Music of Paul Simon. For Game Show, well I think we
all know by now. For standup or comedy, I would like to see either Jenny Slate
or Tig Notaro win instead of one of the favorites either Dave Chappelle or Ricky
Gervais. For Talk Series, I’d like to
see Stephen Colbert win but it might very well go to John Mulaney
considering that won at the TCA but wasn’t recognized with a corresponding Emmy
nod. For Variety Series or Special, I’d
like to see either Dick Van Dyke or the SAG awards win, if only because it
would add variety to the possibility of Saturday Night Live or Last Week
Tonight – they’re going to win at the Emmys anyway, let them have this. And
when it comes to the Best Saturday Night Live Host – it’s a tough call among
the six nominated but I’d like to see Maya Rudolph win over Ryan Gosling.
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