This one will
be much tougher. Two of last year’s Emmy winners will be facing off in this
category and their greatest rival will be the actress who won in this category
back-to-back the two previous years. One can’t ignore the prominence of an
overlooked performer getting her first nomination in this category and two of Saturday
Night Live’s greatest comediennes (who happen to be contemporaries and
co-stars in so many things) as well. Here are my predictions.
Quinta Brunson,
Abbott Elementary. Odds: 5-1. For Playing: Janine, a
teacher at a Philadelphia school trying to balance her new job at district with
her love of her former position. Pro: Brunson did deservedly win last
year in this category, her second consecutive Emmy (the first of course was for
writing where she is also nominated for the third straight year.) Brunson made
the bold move of having Janine, the lead of her series working in a different
job with different colleagues for the majority of Season 3. Seeing Janine as a
fish out of water led to great moments as we saw her achieve some of the goals
she’d longed to and try to balance it with her yearning to be back with her old
class. Her decision to return was not a simple reset of the status quo but
shown as a difficult decision that she made for a heart-melting reason. She
remained wonderfully funny at every opportunity and achieved her highpoint of
the season for the season 3 finale where she planned out every detail of the
perfect party, had it fall apart – and ended with her realizing the love of
Gregory. It was another brilliant performance that we’ve come to realize is
just another day at work. Con: It’s hard to imagine anyone thinking
Brunson is yesterday’s news but there may be a desire to spread the love to
someone else. Also, see the other nominees.
Ayo Edebiri, The
Bear: Odds: 19-5. For Playing: Sydney, trying to create a new
restaurant on Chicago under difficult circumstances. Pro: Edebiri decided
to move from Supporting to Lead Actress after Season 1. It couldn’t have been
an easy choice for the performer who that same year took an Emmy in that category
to the delight of the throng but in the weeks before and afterwards it was
clearly working for her: she took the Golden Globe, Critics Choice Award and
SAG award for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy. And no one can deny she’s
lost anything or indeed that she isn’t as much a lead as Jeremy Allan White.
Sydney has always had a clearer vision that Carmy has, perhaps because she isn’t
burdened with the kind of emotional baggage that he – or indeed most of her
co-workers – are. As Season 2 progressed she found herself in a position where she
was seemingly Carmy’s equal in authority but still dealing with a man who
refused to delegate and demanded total authority. She clearly was committed to
him because of his talent as a chef but it became clear throughout Season 2
that for all intents and purposes Carmy just views her as an underling. The
fact that she was still working when the restaurant was opening – and he was
locked in the freezer unable to go forward – shows the difference between them.
Winning her Edebiri would become the first woman since Alison Janney to win
Best Actress and Supporting Actress in a comedy for the same role and it’s hard
to argue she doesn’t deserve too. Con: Of all three of last year acting
winners, Edebiri is the only actress who has lost the frontrunner position
since the Emmy nominations came out. As to why, see below.
Selena Gomez, Only
Murders in the Building. Odds: 7-1. For Playing: Mabel, part of
the crime solving podcast trying to solve a murder on a Broadway show. Pro: That
this is Gomez’s first nomination for Murders is a mystery more difficult
to solve than anything her character has in three season. (My prime suspect:
Elle Fanning.) Gomez has spent the last three seasons demonstrating that she
has the same comic chops as the two legends that are her co-stars. She was the
biggest revelation of this series and with each season Mabel reveals new depths
that keep making her more remarkable and layer that even her elder co-stars. The
Emmys may merely be nominating Gomez to make up for the fact they unforgivably
slighted her the first two seasons rather than anything she did in Season 3. I
couldn’t care less. Either way she deserves to be with the legends in this
category. Con: I think in Gomez’s case it will be an honor just to be
nominated. For all the layers in her performance, well, there’s just too many
great ones in this category already.
Maya Rudolph, Loot.
Odds: 13-2. For Playing: Molly Novak, a new billionaire trying
to reconnect with the real world. Pro: I make no secret of the fact I
worship Maya Rudolph. She’s had a hell of a year with the Emmys: she was
nominated both for her appearance on SNL and just as deserving the instant
classic musical number she did instead of her monologue. Throw in her
nomination for voiceovers and she’s got four for this year. Take that Jon Hamm!
Rudolph, like her soulmate Kristen Wiig, has done a lot of great work in films
and TV. She was nominated for three Guest Actress Emmys for her work in The
Good Place as The Judge and actually lost to herself the last year for her
appearance on SNL as Kamala Harris in 2020. Indeed she’s actually won
the most Emmys of all the nominees with 5 (2 for Guest Hosting SNL, three
for her voice over work on Big Mouth. ) Would be excessive for her to win a sixth?
Maybe. But considering she never got a nomination when she was starring on SNL
(her co-star Wiig got three at the time) that she was in one of my favorite
cancelled too soon series Up All Night and that she always seems to be listed behind
her co-star Tina Fey, Amy Poehler and Wiig when it comes to the talents of SNL
in the 2000s, well, unlike the character she plays, she can never have too
much. Con: Rudolph’s biggest problem is that she is the only nominee for
her show as opposed to all of her fellow nominees who are starring in shows
that are up for Best Comedy. Lone nominees rarely manage to win Emmy in any
category and I don’t think it’ll happen her. Better luck for her as the Mother,
Jean Smart, Hacks.
Odds; 17-5. For Playing: Deb Vance, trying to use her momentum
to become the first woman in late night. Pro: The moment Season 3 of Hacks
premiered on HBO Max Jean Smart immediately took front-runner status away from
Ayo Edebiri. And anyone who watched Season 3 of one of the best shows of the
decade – the equal of The Bear in quality – can’t deny she hasn’t earned
it. We watched Deb go through quite a journey this year, using her fame from
her special to take a swing at a job at late night. We saw her make huge
personal growth, with JD as she dealt with becoming a grandmother, when she had
an affair with a married man and realized the worst of it, when she made a tentative
effort to reconcile with Kathy who she hadn’t seen since her sister left her
for her husband and when she did what it took to get the job – by betraying the
woman who helped her the most. That Smart did all of this and remained just as
hysterical, profoundly deep and wrenching as she has done for two season is a tributed
to one of the greatest actors in TV history. Smart has already won the TCA prize
for Best Performance in a Comedy and the Dorian prize for Best Comic Lead. The
momentum is strong for her third win in this category. Con: The
possibility that momentum for Edebiri may be too strong as well as the overall
caliber of all the nominees.
Kristen Wiig, Palm
Royale. Odds: 6-1. For Playing: Maxine, a former pageant queen trying
to make her way into the world of Palm Beach society. Pro: It took two
episodes for me to understand why Maxine was trying so hard to join a club that
didn’t want her as a member and once you did both she and the entire series
fell into place. Wiig has been one of the most talented alums of SNL in
their film career and Wiig, given the opportunity, can do drama quite well. She
has the capabilities to play people who have been broken by life as well as
those who will do anything for a laugh. And all of those aspects were on full
display in her work as Maxine. She spent half of the show playing pure Southern
gentility as well doing everything in her power to play pure farce at a way
that the great Lucille Ball would tip her cap to. And the other half of the
time – particularly in the season finale – you saw a woman so broken by life
and knowing no matter what she does she will never be expected. Like the series
itself, Wiig’s work was capable of great emotional depth as well is hysterical
humor. I’ve little doubt she’ll get an Emmy for it soon. Con: ‘Soon’
probably doesn’t mean this year. As extraordinary as Wiig’s work was, too many
people dismissed Palm Royale as fluff. And while that was a misjudgment,
it’s not nearly as dark or deep as some of the other performances in this category.
PREDICTION: No bad choices
in this category but I give Smart the edge by the barest of eyelashes. (And
given Deb Vance, they’re probably false.)
Tomorrow I move
on to Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy. That might not be as easy as
everyone thinks it will be.
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