My Predictions for the 2024 Emmys, Week 1 Concluded: Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Et Al

 

Without question the strongest collection of nominees in this genre are in this category. Two performers for whom there are no words left in the English language to describe their brilliance. A previous winner who has been one of the dominant forces in this category ever since her previous win. Two performers who have received prizes in this category from multiple awards  shows including this past year. And a first time nominee who offers the most humanity on a series where that can be scarce. I don’t envy the Emmy voters in this selection. Here are my predictions.

 

Carol Burnett, Palm Royale. Odds: 13-2. For Playing: Norma Delacorte, the queen of Palm Beach society who’s not quite dead yet. Pro: Norma was originally just going to be a coma when Palm Royale was being written – until they cast Carol Burnett to play her. And even when she was supposedly comatose Norma still stole every scene she was in. Then we got to learn her backstory and slowly but surely we saw that Norma was a monster who hated the world, hated her daughter-in-law and was controlling society beyond Palm Beach. And of course in the season finale we learned she wasn’t even Norma. Carol Burnett hasn’t gotten to play a villainess in a very long time and she made every moment she was on scene absolutely hysterical as we saw this ninety-plus year old woman in a wheelchair with an embolism try every possible way to kill Maxine and keep having her plans foiled. When you’re doing a show that is pure farce, you call Carol Burnett. Burnett just became the oldest actress nominated for an Emmy in this category, having won her seventh Emmy last year. (And is anyone as irked as I have she didn’t get nominated for bringing down Saul Goodman last year? I still am.) Con: Hard as it is to believe all of the nominees in the category are as good as Burnett and some are better. She’ll have to wait until next year.

 

Lisa Colon-Zayas, The Bear. Odds: 5-1. For Playing: Tina Marrero, trying to learn how to be a better chef. Pro: Colon-Zayas was the only nominee in this category I didn’t predict; my personal preference was for Abby Elliott. But few can deny the quiet brilliance of Colon-Zayas over the past two seasons. Initially fiery and chafing at the presence of the new chef Sydney, she managed to adapt and become one of the  more unsung characters on this show, keeping her head when all around (namely Carmy and Richie) were losing theirs. During Season 2 she tried to go on her own journey to become a better chef one that showed signs of progress as the series went on. She maintained her dignity and superb talent throughout. And unlike all of her co-stars the third season of The Bear actually did more to help her momentum then everyone else connected with it. That may help her prevail. Con: That said, if it happens it will be in the awards cycle that is to come not this one. As it is she’s the neophyte in a field of veterans, even the ones younger than her.

 

Hannah Einbinder, Hacks. Odds: 18-5. For Playing: Ava, trying to help Deb win a job in late night. Pro: The moment Season 3 of Hacks dropped Einbinder immediately became the frontrunner in this category. And she absolutely should have won before. She has already won two HCA TV awards in this category the first two years Hacks was on the air. She took the Dorian prize for Best Supporting Performance in a Comedy last week. And if you’ve watched her work this season you know that Einbinder is willing to humiliate herself anyway possible to get a laugh, even if she doesn’t intend to do it. She’s already gotten lost in the woods, put on a caddy outfit backwards, was about to have a horrible sexual act performed on her until she learned that it was a Republican who would do it, dealt with the most awkward Christmas ever, made things better with her mother, was destroyed by Deb in the finale and then did something so unthinkable that everyone who watched it when OMFG and knows Season 4 can’t come soon enough. It is past time for Einbinder to win and this year was just another reason to show why. Con: This is an incredibly tough category and Einbinder is by far the youngest nominee in it. And it’s not exactly like any of her competition is unworthy.

 

Janelle James, Abbott Elementary. Odds: 7-1. For Playing: Ava Coleman, principal at Abbott Elementary. Pro: The one complaint about Abbott I heard was that the show didn’t put Ava in the spotlight enough. As Ava Coleman would say, she brings her spotlight with her. I certainly didn’t noticed a diminished Ava in Season 3, putting cameras everywhere, trying to be serious until dance music played out, trying to ‘win’ a school board meeting, getting into a war with her rival at the park, staging a fight at book club… you name it, Ava Coleman will do it. And as always we get to see the depths behind her, such as when Barb brought her choir to Abbott to rehearse and she saw just how badly her friends self-esteem was damaged by it. We all knows James is going to win in this category someday. Con: But it’s probably not going to be this year. No matter how many prizes James takes – and she’s already won an HCA award and an Image award – it seems to be her fate to be outshined by a brighter sun – or this year, most likely, a brighter Ava.

 

Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary. Odds: 11-2. For Playing: Barbara, elder stateswoman at Abbott Elementary. Pro: Barbara spent much of Season 3 dealing with Janine’s absence in her own way, frequently having issues dealing with the new library program, trying to accept that things were changing. She continued to bring the heart to this series as was seen in the episode that Ralph no doubt submitted for consideration – when she invited Gregory over to her home for Mother’s Day in order to deal with the loss of her own mother. Ralph remains the wonder she’s been for the past three seasons, sometimes behind the times, sometimes full of wisdom, always funny, always sweet. Considering that Ayo Edebiri is competing for Best Actress, Ralph might prevail if the Emmys decide to honor the most recent previous winner – and I wouldn’t mind. Con: Ralph has already won before in this category and the Emmy has more often then not been recognizing new blood with each year than they have in the past. They may decide to pass over Ralph.

 

Meryl Streep, Only Murders in the Building. Odds: 4-1. For Playing: Loretta Durkin, an unsuccessful actress on the set of a play. Pro: You wouldn’t think the greatest actress in history could play a horrible actress. Just kidding. She’s Meryl Streep! And earlier this year she realized the greatest recognition possible: she received a nomination from the People’s Choice Awards. Somewhat more seriously Streep did win a Critics Choice Award for Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy, which made her the early frontrunner in this category. And there would be a symmetry to it: she will be attending to honor her daughter Louisa Jacobson, one of the stars of the Emmy nominated drama The Gilded Age. And come on, the Emmys does owe her for not giving her the prize for Big little Lies four years ago. (I’m still bitter.)Con: The moment Hacks dropped Season 3, Einbinder jumped ahead of Streep as the favorite, and deservedly so. And honestly does she have any space left in her home for another award at this point?

 

Prediction: She’s not going to say it, but when Hannah Einbinder wins she’ll have to be thinking: “I beat Meryl!”. And honestly she deserves too.

 

Now some other awards.

Much as I would like to see Hacks win in writing or directing, I suspect that The Bear will repeat in both of those categories – deservedly so for the instant classic ‘Fishes.’

I’m not entirely sold that it will win Best Guest Actor for Jon Bernthal for The Bear. I’ll be honest I’d prefer if Bob Odenkirk won for the same show -  really they owe him big time. And given how his stint on SNL went viral, we can’t rule out a win for Ryan Gosling.

Jamie Lee Curtis is the heavy favorite for The Bear as well and I think she’s likely to win. But Maya Rudolph has triumphed in this category twice before and anyone who saw her opening monologue would know that she’s a formidable Mother too. (My personal choice is still Kaitlin Olson for Hacks but the odds are against her.

 

Next week, I start on Drama. For the record, I don’t think it’s as weak a category as my fellow pundits seem too and I look forward to defending that argument.