Yes friends and
neighbors we are here again. Technically this is the second Emmys we’ve had in
2024. But as we know the Emmys are there to honor the series from June 1st
to May 31st of the calendar year. The work stoppage may have changed
when the 2023 Emmys took place but not the how. What you are about to
see is the predictions for the actual 2024 Emmy Awards, covering June 1st
2023 to May 31st of 2024.
Nothing has
fundamentally changed about how I will approach the predictions from the last
five years. Using the rankings at Gold Derby I will list all the nominated
series and actors based on the odds that are currently given for all nominees
in the major categories, save for writing and directing where I will give my
personal predictions as opposed to what I actually believe will win. I will
give the pros and cons for each series winning or losing, much of which I do
consider based on opinion rather than fact.
Just as with
last year, I will begin my predictions with comedy.
OUTSTANDING
COMEDY SERIES
Abbott
Elementary (ABC)
Odds: 15-2. Pro: I
still feel this series deserved much better from January’s Emmys then it ended
up getting and Season 3 did nothing to dim its luster. Quinta Brunson continued
to defy boundaries with her brilliant comedy by having Janine absent from her
classroom and Abbott itself for most of the season. This led most of the
supporting cast to up their already exceptional game in ways you wouldn’t
expect: Jacob and Melissa’s new bond when they became roommates, Barbara
dealing with how change is not always a bad thing, Gregory coming to terms with
Janine’s trying to move on, Ava’s attempt to be a better teacher but not a
better person and of course the fact that Gregory and Janine finally allowed
the chemistry between them to ignite in the last minutes of the season finale. Abbott
Elementary is such a big deal, it’s got standing room only at comic book conventions
and if that’s not a sign it’s universal I don’t know what is. Con: Abbott
does have the baggage of being a network series, something that the Emmys
seem determined to ignore these days no matter how brilliant they are. It may
very well be why it ended up losing badly last year.
The Bear (FX on Hulu)
Odds: 39-10. Pro: The early
awards showed the momentum for The Bear had accelerated, winning the
Golden Globe, the Critics Choice Awards and the SAG awards for its second
season and dominating the acting awards. And there is little sign that it has diminished
in quality over season 2, especially considering the incredible work on display
in every episode for every character. Every lead and supporting actor got a
chance to shine in episodes such as Forks and Honeydew. The ‘Fishes’ episode
was considered the highpoint of Season 2 and is almost certain the dominate the
writing and guest acting categories. And the series has become a phenomena that
it may now be the best series on television anywhere. That would seem to be
enough to put it over the top. Con: Over Season 2 there has been decided
debate given the nature of The Bear whether it deserves to be considered
a comedy at all. TV Guide even weighed in on the matter in the most recent
issue, saying it deserved to be nominated for Emmys but not as a comedy. I don’t
understand the reasoning behind this and have argued it. More telling is that
the third season of The Bear dropped this summer and for the first time
critics are questioning whether the series is still as good as it once was. And
perhaps most tellingly both the TCA and the Dorian Awards chose to ignore it in
its awards and give the majority of the awards in comedy to Hacks. The
momentum The Bear’s had since February may be starting to dry up.
Curb Your
Enthusiasm (HBO):
Odds: 9-1. Pro: One
of the longest running (though not consecutively) comedy series came to an end
with Larry David having walked away learning – absolutely nothing. But that’s
always been the point of Curb which took the mantle from Seinfeld on bad
behavior and raised it exponentially. This series is the last holdover from the
dawn of HBO’s programming and is also one of the least recognized ones in terms
of awards. Part of this is due to the nature of the show, which is both
improvised and essentially cinema verité and part of it is due to the fact that
it just always seems to have been there. I imagine there are some people who
expect Larry David, if he wins an Emmy, to start his acceptance speech saying: “I
only ended the series for this to happen.” Curb is an accomplishment and
it deserves recognition. Con: Aside from my personal enmity to all
things about this show the fact is this has never been the kind of series that does
well at the Emmys. Cringe comedies such as Seinfeld, The Office and
almost all the work of Ricky Gervais will get nominations but rarely take the
grand prize. In a way Curb barely fits the structure of comedy like The
Bear but at least that series has a story. I think the Emmys will shaft the
show, which is actually something the creators are expecting.
Hacks (MAX) Odds:
11-2. Pro: The
moment Hacks dropped Season 3 the momentum for it dominating this year’s
Emmys began to shift in its favor. As I mentioned the TCA and the Dorians gave
it the lion’s share of its awards in comedy and having seen the third season it’s
hard to argue the reasoning. Hacks remains one of the most outstanding
comedies of the decade (and despite its overtones, no one questions that
is a comedy unlike with The Bear). And watching it during Season 3 as
Deb made her stride to become the first woman in Late Night we saw how much Deb
Vance has changed and how she keeps trying to change. We’ve seen the good and
the bad between her relationship with Ava and its clear these two women are
soulmates, for better or worse. It works just as will with the incredible
supporting cast (I’d be fine if there was a spinoff involving Jimmy and Kayla)
and one of the best rosters of guest performers that rivals even The Bear. Hacks is unquestionably one of the best
shows of 2024 and its more than overdue a win in this category. Con: None
really. The biggest obstacle it faces is whether it can overcome the early
momentum of The Bear.
Only Murders in
the Building (Hulu)
Odds: 13-2. Pro: If anything the
writers never rest on their laurels when it comes to Murders. In Season
3 they took our trio to Broadway, surrounded them with some of the most
brilliant guest actors and actresses working today (most of which received
nominations) and put the entire show in theater. They were even willing to do a
musical episode and stage the solution that same way. The show remains one of
the funniest and best mashups of genres on any service today and the three leads,
the law firm of Martin, Short and Gomez have become one of the most delightful
comedy teams in history. It may be a production but you can’t deny the fun even
as the bodies fall and alleys become blinder. Watching this series you’re
reminded: “That’s Entertainment!” Con: While the series has won many
awards for other groups (the HCA, the Critics Choice) it has mysteriously been struggling
to win major prizes at the Emmys despite the legends associated with it. The
show got a remarkable 23 nominations but I’ve having a hard time seeing it win
in any major category. (Though when I get to the caliber of the nominees, we’ll
see that’s not a mystery.)
Palm Royale (Apple TV): Odds:
10-1. Pro: I
essentially binge-watched this entire series over the course of less than a
month which tells you how quickly I became enraptured by it. This is a joyful,
romp of a period piece that is one of the most brilliant satires I’ve seen on
any service in a long time and is powered by some of the greatest comic
actresses and actress altogether in at least a decade. Kristen Wiig is
delightful as Maxine Delacorte Simmons who makes herself almost an heir to Lucille
Ball in her work. She is backed by one of the great supporting casts I’ve ever
seen, from Alison Janney and Ricky Martin, all the way down to Julia Duffy and
Mindy Cohn. (And yes, apparently Carol Burnett can still be funny even in a
coma.) There are deep issues at the center of Palm Royale but its by far
the most fun of any of the shows in this category. I look forward to Season
2. Con: Apparently just being fun doesn’t seem to count to get you an Emmy
these days. This is assured more of a comedy than The Bear is and its
definitely more stylish but everything does have to have a deeper meaning to
these days. Farce rarely prevails.
Reservation
Dogs (FX
on Hulu): Odds: 19-2. Pro: FINALLY! The Emmys chose to recognize one
of the most brilliant series of the last decade with multiple nominations. It’s
no secret that Reservation Dogs has been one of the most critically
acclaimed series of this decade, nominated every season it was on the air by
the TCA and the Peabodys. This year it took a Peabody award for its final
season and was also recognized as Best Unsung Series by the Dorians. Using its
story of four Navajo teens on an Oklahoma reservation Sterlin Harjo expanded
his universe to show the stories of the elders in every connotation in its
final season, showed the backstories of some of the minor characters and the
major ones and in its final episode ‘Dig’ showed how much the Res Dogs had grown
and changed over their journey, physical and spiritual. It did so in a way that
was often incredibly moving and hysterically funny all at the same time. Its my
sleeper in this category. Con: The fact that it’s taken until its final
season to be recognized in this category shows some of the Emmys blinders even
in an era of diversity (though to be clear this year’s nominees showed how far
they’ve come). It’s frequently been a poorer cousin to many of the brilliant FX
brand comedies, two of which are in this category. I want it to win. I’m enough
of a realist to know it won’t happen.
What We Do In
The Shadows (FX)
Odds: 9-1. Pro: Shadows has been nominated for its third
consecutive season (stretching over five years) and as it enters its final stretch
for nominations, it remains one of the most delightful satires and tributes to
the supernatural in recent years. Led by one of the most dynamic comedic casts
Taiki Waititi’s second nominated series in this category has far more of the
eccentricity we’ve come to expect from his extraordinary career. It has been
one of the great utility players for comedy over the last several years and it
deserves a win at some point. Con: It’s not happening this year. Leaving
aside that both of the FX series in this category are at a far deeper level
than Shadows can be the silly nature of Shadows has not been the
type of series the Emmys has recognized for comedy over the last decade in
particular. Shadows is dark atmospherically but its shiny and fun. Not
the Emmys brand these days.
Prediction: Much as I will
be rooting for Reservation Dogs, I think this comes down to the two
powerhouses: The Bear and Hacks. I think that the habit of the
Emmys to go with repeaters will carry The Bear to a win but the
disagreements about and the fact that it
might be Hacks turn – could carry the latter show to victory. (Sorry for
the cloudiness. The acting categories will be clearer.)
Tomorrow I will
deal with Best Lead Actor in a Comedy.
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