This is a
strong field, no question. There’s only one nominee who I don’t truly feel
belongs and that’s more due to technical concerns rather than the strength of
his performance. I feel Diego Luna or Ramon Rodriguez would have been a better
choice. The odds may be in favor of one
of the Roy clan, but I wonder if the division will end up hurting them. Anyway
here are my predictions:
Jeff Bridges,
The Old Man. Odds: 7-1. For Playing: Daniel Chase, a former CIA
operative who realizes his past has caught up with him. Pro: Under other
circumstances, Bridges would be the sentimental favorite considering he
survived both cancer and Covid while this show was filming. He received a
lifetime achievement awards from the Critics’ Choice this past year and its startling
this is the first TV series he’s done in his entire career. And Bridges is
absolutely magnificent in every scene he’s in as the septuagenarian action hero
you didn’t think we would ever see. We watch as Heck tries to escape the past
he has spent forty years avoiding and finding out that one of his oldest
colleagues is trying to hunt him and his mentor has betrayed him. He makes an
alliance with a woman who he tries to protect and fails to estimate and spends the
season learning what he has cost himself.
Under normal circumstances Bridges should be the odds on favorite to
win. Con: This just isn’t his year. There’s also the fact that he is one of two
nominees in this category whose series has been renewed for a second season. He’ll
get another chance at the apple. Like his character, he’s a survivor.
Brian Cox, Succession.
Odds: 13-2. For Playing: Logan Roy, realizing that old age is
starting to approach. Pro: Cox was only actually in two full episodes of
the final season, but as always he had a way of making his presence known. At
his birthday, he found himself alone and contemplating his mortality, realizing
his bodyguard might be the only friend he had. And in his last meeting with the
children he betrayed, he told them that he loved them but that they were ‘not
serious people’. Logan proved even to the end that he was incapable of truly
changing and despite everything we saw the hold he had on his children. It was
a hell of an exit for a great actor. Con: I’ll be honest; the Emmys are
truly stretching the definition of Lead Actor when they nominated Cox in this
category. I do understand why but compared to his two co-nominees, it’s not
remotely fair and it will probably just syphon votes that should have gone to
them. (To be fair, that is exactly the kind of thing his character would do
their characters in real life.) The last time I remember this being tried was
for Jimmy Smits in his last season of NYPD Blue. It didn’t work then; I
don’t think it’ll work here
Kieran Culkin,
Succession. Odds: 4-1. For Playing: Roman Roy, the troubled
youngest son of the clan. Pro: Culkin allowed himself to be considered a
lead for the final season of Succession and it’s very hard not to see
why. Roman spent as much of his time on Succession being completely
juvenile and clearly suffering from the abuse of his father, which was as much
physical as psychological. Now in the aftermath of his father’s death, he spent
much of the final season in the middle of a spiral of grief that he directed in
all the wrong directions, not only for himself but most horribly for the entire
nation in ‘America Decides’. In the penultimate episode he dealt with the
consequences of his father’s funeral by walking into a mob of protesters,
daring them to beat him up. And in the series finale, he finally came to the
realization not only of his inadequacy but the entire Roy clan. The final image
of him is getting wasted in bar, for the first time with nothing to say. It’s a
powerful image and he’s more than worthy of a win. Con: He has the disadvantage
of going up against Cox and Strong, and Strong’s acting has been the kind that
the Emmys have more than appreciated. The divide may be too great for him to
overcome.
Bob Odenkirk,
Better Call Saul. Odds: 5-1. For Playing: Saul Goodman,
finally facing the consequences of his past, present and future. Pro: Odenkirk
is overdue. I grant you that the field he’s had to compete in the past seven
years has been far stronger than anything Bryan Cranston had to deal with (and
one of those years the Emmys didn’t even nominate him!( but by this point he
should have won at least one Emmy by now.
He managed to prevail both at last years HCA and January’s Critics
Choice awards and if you’ve seen the final season, it’s hard to argue that he
didn’t earn it this year. We saw Jimmy’s relationship with his soul mate Kim
come to a disastrous end in the second episode and he completed his
transformation to Saul. We saw Saul have his first meeting with Walter White
and Jesse and realize how he came to make his destiny. We saw him in the
present as Gene, finally decided that he could not escape his true nature. And in
the series finale, we saw that it looked like he was going to get away from
everything – and instead, finally accepted every part of himself. No one in this category had a better final
season than Odenkirk. No one in this category is more overdue of a win. And of
all the actors here, I want Odenkirk to prevail. Con: The Emmys have
gone out of their work to ignore not merely Odenkirk but the entire series for
reasons that boggle the mind. I think Odenkirk might slip through if there is a
major split among the Succession leads. But it’s a tough field.
Pedro Pascal,
The Last of Us. Odds: 5-1. For Playing: Joel Miller,
leading a young child through a zombie cluttered America. Pro: For three
seasons Pascal has been the hero of millions of fans of The Mandalorian without
anyone seeing his face. Now everyone sees who he is as a different kind of
father figure in a different kind of sci-fi setting and it’s a whole new ballgame. While I found Pascal’s work on The Mandalorian
as antiseptic as the entire series, his work in The Last of Us is
far more revelatory and he is the engine who drives this show. Pascal has been getting his share of recognition
from other sources (he was one of the bigger winners of the MTV TV awards,
taking one trophy on his own and one in companion with Bella Ramsey). Pascal is
the man of the hour and he deserves recognition in the biggest cultural phenomena
of 2023.. Con: I don’t think the video game part of Last of Us will
be as much of a detriment as the fact that there are so many other powerful
nominees in this category, four of whom are getting their last bite at the apple
for iconic roles. Like the show itself, I think the Emmys will say Pascal can
wait another turn.
Jeremy
Strong, Succession. Odds: 4-1. For Playing: Kendall Roy, fighting
for the company he thinks is his birthright. Pro: Volumes have been
written about the incredible amount of effort that Strong has put into his work
as Kendall, the most troubled of all the Roy children. In the aftermath of his
father’s death, he managed to find enough strength to keep the family going to
make one more effort to save Waystar Royco for the Roys – and most importantly,
make himself CEO. But as the final season went on, all of the weaknesses he’s
had kept coming back to wreck him. We saw him destroy his marriage and his
relationship with his family. Leading up to the funeral, his assistant, one of
the few truly human people in this series, reached her limits with him and
resigned, and he treated her abominably. He dealt with the leadup to the buyout
with little respect for his brother – and then in the moment Succession has
truly been leading to, had to deal with the fact his own siblings thought he
was inadequate. In a truly horrifying moment, he denied his responsible in the
hit and run that had caused him to despair for two seasons, told his siblings
he had nothing in his life but to lead Waystar and got to a pathetic brawl with
his brother. We were told that there was a final scene planned where Kendall
was considering jumping and was stopped. We didn’t need it. Looking at the
final image, we know for all intents and purposes, Kendall’s life is over, even
if he keeps living. It is one of the great performances in the lexicon of
television. Con: Strong has received more than his share of recognition
from various awards groups, including an Emmy and a Golden Globe. I have a
feeling that of the three Roys in this category, the Emmys may think he’s had
enough.
Prediction: I’m going to go
out on a limb and say the divide between the three nominees of Succession will
be just enough for Bob Odenkirk to slip through. (It’s happened with so many
other series in supporting categories.)
Tomorrow I
will deal with Best Lead Actress, which will probably be the toughest pick of
the entire night.
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