Last year,
the only major nominee in this category I truly had a problem with Kumail Nanjiani.
Those of you who read my blog this summer know that not long after that I
essentially binge-watched Welcome to
Chippendale’s and realized not only the wisdom of the nominations the
series got but the Emmys stupidity in ignoring it in favor of Obi-Wan Kenobi.
I’m still irked that Woody Harrelson and Steve Carell were shut out, but
honestly it was a crowded field and these are six good choices. So are my
predictions.
Taron Egerton,
Black Bird. Odds: 6-1. For Playing: Jimmy Keene, a career criminal who
cuts a deal to get a serial killer to confess. Pro: Compared to the understandable reverence
for his supporting cast Egerton didn’t get nearly as much praise for his work
as Jimmy, the cocky young man who finds himself making a deal with one devil
only to find himself in Hell to earn it. But Egerton’s work commanded the
screen as you saw Jimmy go into a maximum security prison to deal with a
monster and not realize the horrors he was going to have to fine. Usually these
deals cause you to lose your soul; Jimmy emerged from it having gotten his back
– which came as a shock to a man who didn’t know he had one. Egerton’s
performance was one of the rare redemptive ones among the nominees in this
category and that’s remarkable given who some of the other nominated series and
actors are. Con: This series did debut way back last summer and
Egerton could never quite overcome the momentum of some of the other performers
in this category then. It’s unlikely he will now.
Kumail
Nanjiani, Welcome to Chippendales. Odds: 7-1. For Playing: ‘Steve’
Bannerjee, the founder of Chippendale’s who achieves the American Dream and is
unequipped to handle it. Pro: I have been watched Nanjiani quite a bit
this past decade but I never thought he had this in him. Any time Bannerjee is
funny in this series is purely by accident and we see the long slow descent of
a man who wants to achieve the American Dream but only on his terms and can not
tolerate sharing the spotlight. From the start we see his toxic personality as
he reveals racism, egotism and classism that show him slowly turning from a
nebbish to a full-fledged monster even before he orders a series of pointless
murders by the end of the show. If we were to give an Emmy based solely on the
amount of range we associate for a given performer, Nanjiani would have this in the bag. Con: For reasons that make no sense upon
seeing the series, very little praise was shone on Nanjiani as opposed to so
many of the supporting cast and his nomination came as a shock to most voters. He
will most likely be ignored.
Evan Peters, Dahmer.
Odds: 71-20. For Playing: Jeffrey Dahmer, the Milwaukee
teenager who becomes the most notorious serial killer of the 20th
century. Pro: I did not want to watch this series even after Peters took
the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Limited Series. But once I started
watching his work, I could not look away. Peters is riveting throughout as a
man who from the time he was a child was broken in a way that not even he could
realize. There are almost no moments watching him work that he seems like a
human being – and the times he does, it seems to come as nearly as much a shock
to him as it does to the audience. Peters is more than worthy of the praise
that he had received despite all of the controversy that has surrounded the
show, and he deserves to win. Con: There has been a distinct unease
about honoring Peters since the series started winning awards back at the start
of the year, and I have gotten the sense the Emmys would love to have an
alternative. Besides Peters has won for his work in Mare of Easttown so
it’s not like he’s lacking it recognition from the Emmys.
Daniel
Radcliffe, Weird: The Al Yankovic Story. Odds: 5-1. For Playing: Al Yankovic,
working his way to nerdy superstardom. Pro: The film is more than likely
to take home the Emmy for Best TV Movie and Radcliffe is a large part of the
reason. You might not have known you wanted to see Harry Potter play Weird Al
but as with every role Radcliffe has undertaken in post Potter career, he makes
it his own. He more than deserved to triumph at the Critics Choice last year,
and I’m sorry he wasn’t there to accept. (Though Courtney B. Vance more than
made up for it.) Peak TV has provided Radcliffe with his share of superb roles
over the last several years – frankly he should have been nominated for at
least one Emmy for his hysterical work in the brilliant comedy anthology Miracle
Workers - and there might be some
sentiment for him. Con: If you
have paid any attention at all to this category ever since we entered Peak
Limited Series, you know very well that when it comes to getting an Emmy here,
comedy is next to impossible. Not even as skilled a performer as Hugh Jackman
could prevail for his brilliant work in Bad Education. If Wolverine
couldn’t win, what chance has Harry Potter?
Michael
Shannon, George & Tammy. Odds: 13-2. For Playing: George Jones,
the country music legend who begins a tumultuous relationship with Tammy
Wynette. Pro: For reasons that
defy logic this is Shannon’s first Emmy nomination ever. Yes the actor who has
been playing dark characters in Boardwalk Empire, complicated ones in Waco
and was just fun in Nine Perfect Strangers has not be nominated
until now. (At least the Oscars have nominated him twice, though he should have
gotten at least three or four by now.)
But I guess that in order for Shannon to get his due he had to sing for his
nomination as well performer one of the hardest drinking and most memorable
country music stars of all time. Even then, he could not get a Golden Globe or
SAG nomination. I honestly am shocked the Emmys remembered him at all; I thought
by force of habit they’d just pretend he wasn’t there. I could tell you it was
one of the most remarkable performances of 2022 but if you’ve been watching
Shannon as long as I have, you would expect nothing less. It’s also one of his
more human performances which is a little more than we expect from his
characters who far too often seem to be mentally broken. George Jones was
broken but he managed to heal himself. Con: We know how this is going to
go. But all joking aside, as good as Shannon’s work was, in this category there
were several better performances. I want Shannon to win personally, but there
are more deserving winners in this category.
Steven Yeun, Beef.
Odds: 19-5. For Playing: Danny Cho, whose reaction to road
rage starts him down a path that will destroy his life. Pro: I never
watched a single episode of The Walking Dead which meant going in to
this series I had no idea what kind of actor Steven Yeun was. I can’t imagine
anything he did as Glenn being as layered or deep as his work as a man who was
far more emotionally broken at the start of Beef and went down a far darker path to get
his kind of revenge. Danny was already in a terrible place at the start of the
series and its clear his pathetic attempts at vengeance – and really everything
else on the show – were some twisted and broken attempt at healing himself
through the American Dream. That Danny could only turn the person who was the
focus of his vengeance to become whole shows how sad things were for him.
Twisted as the final episode was, it did show even more range than the
incredible eight episodes that followed had. Of the six nominated actors in
this category Yeun has the most momentum going into Emmy night, considering the
Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations he’s received for Best Actor. Con:
Can he overcome the awards and praise that went to Evan Peters the year
before? It depends on how far back they go.
Pro: It’s a tough
category but I think Yeun has enough momentum to win.
Tomorrow I
deal with Outstanding Lead Actress in a TV Movie/Limited Series. This is a good
group and it will be hard to pick a winner.
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