My Predictions For This Year's Emmys, Week 3, Day 3: Outstanding Actress in a Limited Series

 

All things considered I have almost no problem with the six nominated actresses. With the possible exception of Elisabeth Olsen being ignored for her incredible work in Love & Death, all of the performers either gave some of the best performances of the past year or in the alternative are among the most overlooked actresses in the era of Peak TV. It will be tricky choosing a winner from these six, though there is one actress who has the barest of advantages. Here are my predictions:

Lizzy Caplan, Fleishman is in Trouble. Odds: 6-1. For Playing: Libby, the narrator of the story of her friends problems who sees how they mirror her own. Pro: You might not be aware of this because it predates this column but I’ve admired Caplan’s ability for a very long time. She never got enough recognition for Masters of Sex one of the most underrated series of the 2010s. So the fact that she is among the Emmy nominees this year is something I am grateful to the Emmys for. And even though the story is ostensibly of Toby’s problems, we see it entirely through the perspective of Libby, a housewife who tells the story by saying its not about her – and as the series unfolds, we increasingly see it very much is. Caplan is off-screen as much as she is on-screen but she is also responsible for much of the humor that permeates the story: I think if the series had taken it strictly from the perspective of Toby it would have been unwatchable. Caplan spends much of the series making Toby’s problems as a way for deal with the difficulties in her own life and its worth noting there’s a superb resolution at the end. Con: With that said for almost the entire series I personally found Libby the most unbearable character of a group that for much of the series were unbearable. I honestly thought of a group of whiners her neediness was by far the most unlikable as she seems incapable of ever truly being happy. The ending of the series implies she might be moving forward; I found her ending by far the hardest to believe. I’m glad to see Caplan nominated for anything but of the six nominated performers, I found her performance the hardest to endure. I want Caplan to win an Emmy but not for this.

Jessica Chastain, George & Tammy. Odds: 9-2. For Playing: Tammy Wynette, a hairdresser who falls in love with George Jones and becomes the most famous country music singer of all time. Pro: Chastain deservedly (and surprisingly) won the SAG AFTRA prize for Best Female Performance in a Limited Series/TV Movie in a winter dominated by Amanda Seyfried’s work in The Dropout. And this role of one of the most famous country legends of all time is just another feather in the cap of one of the greatest actresses in history. Given the ability to play someone with an element of softness as well as steel, Chastain made us fall in love with Tammy just as quickly as George did. Her life was troubled mostly because of her relationship with her husband and it is frankly sad that he managed to outlive her. You got the sense watching every scene the two shared that they were soul mates and that sometimes soul mates don’t work it out. Throw in the fact that for reasons that defy my understanding Chastain didn’t even get a nomination last year for her equally brilliant work in Scenes from A Marriage and the Emmys more than owe her a trophy this year. Con: George & Tammy debuted way back last December and there have been a lot of superb projects in the months since. The question is whether the Emmys memory will be long enough to honor her.

Dominque Fishback, Swarm. Odds: 5-1. For Playing: Dre, a woman whose obsession with a pop star takes a very dark term. Pro: Donald Glover’s follow up to Atlanta has been one of the most acclaimed series of 2023 and of the critical reasons for that is Fishback, who has been nominated for almost every award in sight for her searing performance that is just the right mix between drama, comedy and fricking weird. Fishback has made an impression in more than a few brilliant series over the years, most notably her work on The Deuce and The Last Days of Ptolemy Gray but this is the first series where she is unquestionably the lead and she radiates in every scene she’s in. Her work has been overlooked before; her performance her indicates that Emmy voters will find it impossible to look away from her in the future. Con: For all the glory Fishback has received in the past year, reaction to the series itself has been more mixed and its telling both the Golden Globes and Critics Choice awards ignored both her and the series.

Kathryn Hahn, Tiny Beautiful Things. Odds: 7-1. For Playing: Clare Pierce, an anonymous advice columnist whose personal life is falling apart. Pro: Just as with Caplan, Hahn has been one of my favorite performers in Peak TV who has rarely gotten the credit she deserves from the Emmys. She received a nomination for Transparent and was one of the favorite to take Best Supporting Actress for her incredible performance in Wandavision but ended up losing to Julianne Nicholson for Mare of Easttown. (To be fair, Nicholson deserved just as much.) Hahn has also basically been ignored for her work in so many brilliant comic performances throughout the last decade, such as her hysterical work in just gems as I Love Dick, her guest work in Parks and Rec and one of my personal favorite underrated series Mrs. Fletcher. So Hahn is more than due an Emmy. Her nomination may have been the biggest surprise in this category and the most delightful ones. To be clear, from what I have seen Hahn is just playing another awkward wife and mother who does not know what the hell she is doing – but that’s Hahn’s sweet spot, so I’m hardly shocked she can do it so well. On a purely sentimental basis, I would like Hahn to win. Con: This series was not particularly highly regarded compared to many of the other major nominees in this category, especially compared to many that came from Hulu this year. I don’t think she has a realistic chance.

Riley Keough, Daisy Jones & The Six. Odds: 11-2. For Playing: Daisy Jones,  a recluse who ends up joining a band that has a moment in the sun  - and has to explain why everything went wrong. Pro: Slowly but surely Keough has been building a reputation of being more then being Elvis’ granddaughter and Lisa Marie’s daughter. She’s been following that path almost entirely in the independent film industry and work in TV projects that would fly under the wire, such as the first season of The Girlfriend Experience and The Terminal List.  Now in the first role where she’s using her musical chops she takes on the mantle of a leading lady for the first time and dominates the screen in every possible way. We understand why the band falls in awe of her, we see why she breaks it up and we know that there are secrets that she is not telling that only become clear as the series unfolds. When you consider both that her famous grandparents are having a cultural moment in prestige cinema and the tragic death of her mother earlier this year, there might be some sentimental momentum as well. Con:  As brilliant as both Keough and the series have been, they have been overshadowed by other series almost the entire year. Keough has been nominated for many awards at the end of the year. If there is any momentum for her, we may have to see it there.

Ali Wong, Beef. Odds: 69-20. For Playing: Amy, a furniture designer on the verge of making it big until she ends up provoking an incident that starts a chain reaction she keeps prolonging. Pro: Unlike with Danny, it’s a lot harder to be sympathetic to Amy when we first meet her – she does after all start everything off, and she also keeps provoking it long after a normal person would decide to quit. She’s also infinitely wealthier and is happily married. But as we see as the series begins to unfold, Amy’s unhappiness is just as deep and more below the surface. She also has to deal with in a far more direct fashion the constant being talked down to be the rich white people in order to get where she wants to be. There’s a part of her that becomes increasingly self-destructive as the series progresses and you get the feeling that Amy wants to blow up her life almost without knowing it. Wong is also a lot funnier to watch in her unraveling that Yeun can be. Wong is quickly becoming the favorite. Con: The problem is the Emmys have, shall we say, a pretty bad problem when it comes to recognized Asian-American actors of any kind. We saw that first hand when Sandra Oh won every award in the book for both Grey’s Anatomy and Killing Eve – but would lose both times to a white actress from the same series competing against her. I’m not taking anything away from either Katherine Heigl or Jodie Comer – both were extremely talented performers who more than deserved to win – but it is a tendency of a larger pattern. The Emmys has been making strides in that direction – just last year Squid Game took two acting Emmys – so the question is, will that be enough for her to prevail?

My Prediction:  It comes down to either Chastain or Wong. I’m personally fine with either but I have a sneaking suspicion the Emmys will stand by Chastain.

Tomorrow I will deal with Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series/TV Movie. I’ve actually seen all the nominated performers by now and my opinion has changed from last summer.