Friday, December 15, 2023

My Predictions Of This Year's Emmys, Week 2 Concluded: Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama et al

 

In retrospect the biggest flaw with the eight nominated women here is the decision to overcompensate The White Lotus at the expense of Yellowjackets, particularly in the case of Christina Ricci. (Ricci was also overlooked for Wednesday, though that’s less abhorrent by comparison.) Both the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice awards have acknowledged as much by nominated her even as they have overlooked the show.

This is pretty clear the only category where no one thinks a nominee from Succession prevail. There is also an overwhelming favorite. But there is an excellent chance the Emmys will go in a different direction, despite all of that. For now, let’s deal with the nominees.

Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus. 9-2. For Playing: Tanya McQuaid, a wealthy woman whose honeymoon gets sidetracked when her husband goes away. Pro: We all know that Coolidge’s return for Season 2 is why The White Lotus is in this category rather than limited series in the first place. We also know that Coolidge is by far the biggest reason the show became a breakout phenomenon, and we are very aware that she has won basically every single award possible to get between last year’s Emmys and this one, in basically every category possible. Supporting Actress in A Limited Series from the Golden Globe? Check. Best Supporting Actress in a Drama from the Critics Choice? Check. Best Female Performance in a Drama from the SAG awards (over Zendaya!) Check. Most frightened performance from the MTV awards? Check (and she’s more qualified for that one then the other two.) And you can’t pretend it wasn’t an absolute joy to watch Coolidge in every single scene she was in as she engaged in every single scene she was in. (The gays are going to kill me has already gone viral.)  Are we sad that she was the one who didn’t make it out of the show alive? Of course. Were we other mesmerized as to how she ended up dying? Yes, and it was hysterical. It would seem inevitable that she will get the Emmy…. Con:  The White Lotus being nominated as a Drama takes come true contortions and let’s not kid ourselves, Coolidge’s work was many things but don’t compare it to the performances being given by the cast of Succession. Also she did win last year in a category far more suited to her. (If the show had been nominated for Best Limited Series again, we wouldn’t be having a conversation as to whether she deserved to repeat.)

Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown. 8-1. For Playing: Princess Diana, dealing with the dissolution of her marriage under the scrutiny of the royal family and the U.K. Pro: Debicki has been nominated for nearly every major award leading up to the Emmys, even if she has almost always been eclipsed by Coolidge. And it’s easy to see why. Even more than Emma Corrin in Season Four, Debicki is far closer to the Diana the world knew and we saw her begin to take on her war with both Charles and the entire royal family out of privacy and into the shadows. The series has been spending more time getting on the side of Diana in the last two seasons and Debicki is incredible as showing both the frailness and bravery that the public rarely saw. Debicki commanded the screen in the midst of a cast full of incredible actors in the fifth season and is more than deserving of a win. Con: There was, as I have mentioned, a lot of backlash against the immensely popular show this past season and the fact that Debicki is the sole nominee this year was a sign of that fact, even though the quality had not diminished. I think the show may give her the prize next year but this year she doesn’t have a prayer.

Meghann Fahy, The White Lotus. 17-2. For Playing: Daphne, on a trip with her husband and his college roommate and his wife. Pro:  I don’t know why I didn’t initially recognize Fahy in the previews for Season 2, which just goes to show what a revelation she is even for those of us (like me) who worshipped her work on The Bold Type for the better part of five seasons. I had probably with what I saw as overreach by the Emmys in these categories for The White Lotus; Fahy’s nomination is not one of the ones I had a problem with. And to be clear her performance, in many ways, was as hysterical as Coolidge and showed far more depth than a few other characters in the series were allowed to. Daphne seemed rich, shallow and completely vacant in the initial episodes but it slowly became clear she was all too aware of the kind of man she had married and was more than willing to make sacrifices in order to maintain her lifestyle. It is ambiguous how that scene between her and Ethan played out in the final episode, but its clear she managed to come out ahead no matter what because, in a sense, her cluelessness may be a mask but she’s still happy because of it. I’d like to see Fahy up there; I really would. Con: Coolidge may very well suck up any chance Fahy has and to be perfectly clear, there’s actually another woman from this show who may have a better chance than Fahy. However, given the nature of how recurring characters may show up in future seasons, I’m pretty sure Fahy will get another stay and another chance.

Sabrina Impacciatore, The White Lotus. 19-2. For Playing: Valentina, the dour concierge dealing with a week’s worth of impossible guests. Pro: It is to the credit of Mike White that he chose to make the person in charge of this hotel the complete opposite of Armond, the character everybody fell in love with in Season 1. Valentina can barely tolerate the guests, has absolutely no room for any of their foolishness, doesn’t seem to bother to care about her job at all. She has spent what appears to be her entire life indulging the rich and not even enjoying it. So it was kind of sad that one of the prostitutes on the show decided that, in the midst of basically using everybody in the entire series, that she was going to use her romantically to advance both her career and her wealth. It’s a credit to Impacciatore that even while this was happening we couldn’t feel the least bit sorry for her. Valentina didn’t come close to making us forget Armond, but she was memorable in her own way (and hell, she got out better than him). And MTV did acknowledge that she was part of one of the Best Screen duos all year. Con: Too many very good performances this year from this category and they’re not going to give the award to the concierge this year.

Aubrey Plaza, The White Lotus. 7-1. For Playing: Harper Spiller, a dour wife who doesn’t like her husband friends. Pro: She’s Aubrey Plaza! Do I need to go on? Okay, I will. Setting aside the fact that this, incredibly, Plaza’s first Emmy nomination in any category, her performance was just another one in a long line of delightful work we’ve got over the years. Moderating her perfect deadpan nature to playing someone more depressed and upset,  Plaza spent all of the series playing pretty much the only person who openly was miserable, which made her work arguably the most hysterical of the bunch.  She was clearly someone at least symbolically more liberal in her causes than the other guests (though we all know how that plays out here), her and Ethan’s marriage had clearly been sexless for a while. She didn’t trust Ethan to be faithful, she was more than willing to show she didn’t trust him and there has rarely been a more open sex scene that seemed more borne out of misery than anything I’ve seen on TV (even this season). Throw in the fact she continues to be hysterical (her appearance on SNL was one of the highlights of the season and she should have been nominated for an Emmy for that ) and of all the five nominees from the show in this category, Plaza is by the far the one I want to win. Con: Much as I’m rooting for, there is a very good chance Coolidge will be the one to triumph. But like Fahy, I think we will see her again for The White Lotus.

Rhea Seehorn, Better Call Saul. 11-2. For Playing: Kim Wexler, finally facing the consequences of her actions, both in the past and present. Pro: Even more than Bob Odenkirk, Seehorn has deserved recognition from the Emmys. She has been by far the breakout character of Better Call Saul and has managed to accomplish something that Skyler White never could – become a powerhouse female character in the world of Breaking Bad and not receive immense backlash from the internet. The final season was just as mesmerizing for Kim’s fate as it was for Saul’s, as we got the reason why Kim wasn’t in Saul Goodman’s world. The good news was, it wasn’t because she died and its worth noting she had a revelation far greater than any character on the series could about who she was. The thing is, when we saw the life she was living in the penultimate episode of the series, it almost seemed like a fate worse than death for a character we loved. But the final episodes were as much about Kim’s redemption as it was Jimmy’s and it’s hard not to look at the final scene between the two and not see it as something as close to a happy ending for both of them. The recognition for Seehorn, long overdue, is starting to trickle in: she took the HCA prize for Best Supporting Actress last year and the TCA prize for Best Dramatic Performance this summer. Is it possible the Emmys will finally call Rhea? The momentum may be shifting that way. Con: The question is can the powerhouse dramatic performance of the year overcome an iconic performance in its own right. The fight will come down between Coolidge and Seehorn.

J Smith-Cameron, Succession. 13-2. For Playing: Gerri Kellman, Logan Roy’s right hand attorney waging war against the Roy siblings. Pro: Even when I was never on the side of Succession being a masterpiece, I was always in awe of the work of J-Smith Cameron. I have been impressed by her work in film for a while and thought her work in the criminally underrated Rectify was worthy of an Emmy nomination in its own right. Here she plays arguably the most capable character in all of Succession because she is the only person who Logan would, at least occasionally, listen to and was the only person who was cagey enough to know the way to fight against enemies that none of the Roys were capable of handling. In the final act, she took up the mantle of being as much an obstacle from within as Lukas was from without and it’s hard to know if she won in the final battle, but she certainly didn’t lose. The world has been catching up to that fact: Smith-Cameron received her first Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations this year fo4r her work. If a Succession tide sweeps her to the top, I wouldn’t mind . Con:  Smith-Cameron is so good an actress that she underplays almost everything she’s in, which is something that is never recognized on most shows and certainly not a series like Succession. It didn’t work for her last year; I’m not sure it will work this year.

Simona Tabasco, The White Lotus. 10-1. For Playing: Lucia Greco, one of two women in Venice trying to fleece the patrons of the title hotel. Pro: It is generally acknowledged the ‘winners’ of Season two were Mia and Lucia, who spent all of Season Two having sex and taking money from all of the rich guests at the hotel, suffered absolutely no consequences and were shown in the final shot, walking off to the song ‘The Best Things in Life are Free.” And it’s hard to deny the work of Tabasco as she went on her merry way seducing every male member of the Di Grasso clan, had a threesome (or two) and joyfully seduced Valentina just to get to her own advantage. Lucia and Mia were the only people having unadulterated, unashamed fun all season and clearly walked away having learned that commerce and sexuality are always a winning combination. Con: Her partner in crime Beatrice Granno was one of the few performers on the show who wasn’t nominated and considering that it may seem odd to choose one without the other, I don’t think the Emmys will either.

PREDICTION: It will come down to Coolidge or Seehorn, and right now I hope Seehorn comes out ahead. (That said, with the exception of Tabasco, none of these women are bad choices.)

WRITING AND DIRECTING

It is likely that Connor’s Wedding will prevail in both Writing and Directing, but I’m not convinced it’s inevitable. ‘Long, Long Time’ episode of The Last of Us has been one of the highpoints of this year and it may have enough power to take one of those categories. And never count out Better Call Saul being able to prevail for either of its episodes – it did manage that in its final season. As for Direction, Succession has to compete it itself, which may help The Last of Us prevail.

As for Guest Acting, I’m inclined to think in this case The Last of Us will certainly prevail in Guest Actor, and far more likely for Nick Offerman who has never won anything. It’s just as likely it will happen in Guest Actress, and if Anna Torv or Melanie Lynskey end up winning here I don’t have a problem. It would almost make up for Betsy Brandt or Michael McKean not being nominated. Almost.

Next week, I take up Limited Series/TV Movie. I’m slightly happier with many of the nominees than I was when it first was announced.

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