Thursday, December 14, 2023

My Predictions For This Year's Emmys, Week 2, Day 4: Outstanding Supporting Actor in A Drama

 

I have to admit when the nominations this year came out in this category my first reaction was much like Bill Murray when he discussed the Supporting Actor and Actress awards at the Oscars on Saturday Night Live: “Who cares?”  I have slightly come around on that point, but not by much.

Seriously did the Emmys only see Succession and The White Lotus for this category? Did they miss Better Call Saul? Were two of the greatest actors named John somehow ignored for this category (John Lithgow for The Old Man and Johnathan Pryce for The Crown)? Did they miss Elijah Wood in Yellowjackets? Were Stellan Skarsgard in Andor and Matt Smith for House of the Dragon forsaken?

Now I am willing to let this pass for two reasons. One, none of these actors will be eligible next season. And two, with the exception of Better Call Saul, all of the actors I listed above will get another chance. Still even though I admire many of the performers in this category’s work; it’s going to take some effort for me to care about who wins. That said, here I go:

F. Murray Abraham, The White Lotus. Odds: 8-1. For Playing: Bert Di Grasso, the patriarch of a family on a vacation to Italy. Pro: Of the four actors nominated for The White Lotus, Abraham is the one I most want to win; indeed, he’s my favorite in this category. It is not merely due to the fact that his work in the series is by far the comic highpoint – yes, even more than the wonderful Jennifer Coolidge. It’s that Abraham has been one of the most undervalued character actors of all time, not merely in movies but in television. His work as Dar Adal on Homeland was one of the more nuanced performances in a series filled with incredible complicated characters. He was one of the few members of the cast other than Coolidge to receive a nomination for his work on the series, justifiably receiving a Golden Globe nomination last year. And when he spoke for the cast when the show took the prize for Best Ensemble, his speech was both gracious and profoundly moving. I would like to see Abraham up there. I really would. Con:  It's looking like this may be more Succession’s year than The White Lotus, and sentimentality hasn’t prevailed at the Emmys in a long time.

Nicholas Braun, Succession. Odds: 8-1. For Playing: Cousin Greg, trying to find a position of power in the aftermath of so many betrayals. Pro: Braun has been the comic highlight of Succession since the beginning of the series, almost always in the midst of the wonderful byplays between him and Tom for four years. Now as the stakes got impossibly high, Greg remained incredibly clueless in the face of tragedy, devastation and betrayal. In other words, he was by far the most fun. I guess you could say he was the only member of the Roy clan who might have managed to come out ahead by the series finale, but we all know how easily he’ll be ground into dirt. For that at least, he deserves a prize. Con: Braun has always had the misfortune of being overlooked by the incredible display of dramatic acting his cousins and in-laws were doing throughout the season. And in a year where the darkness was the most important part, his comic highpoints are going to be overlooked.

Michael Imperioli, The White Lotus. Odds: 9-1. For Playing: Dominic Di Grasso, dealing with his sex addiction and trying to reconcile with his son. Pro: Christopher, boy have you let yourself go! It has been rare that we’ve gotten to see Imperioli in his long and storied career get to play someone whose basically a joke in the eyes of everybody and it’s clear that Imperioli was relishing  being able to play a sad sack. Of all the characters this season, he was the most obvious failure of the bunch, trying to reconcile with his wife about his sex addiction, trying to win his son’s approval and utterly and completely failing at both. And let’s not kid ourselves that one of the highpoints of the series was watching Dom trying to explain that he was letting women who were clearly prostitutes use his room and insist it wasn’t for sex. I hope we get to see Imperioli back on the show again someday. This was a lot of fun. Con: Imperioli does have an Emmy for his work on a slightly more famous HBO drama series. Much as I’d like to see him get a bookend, I don’t think the Emmys will let him.

Theo James, The White Lotus. Odds: 19-2. For Playing: Cameron Sullivan, a billionaire on a trip to Italy with his old college roommate and his wife. Pro: There’s an argument that the Sullivans came out the winners of The White Lotus because they were as clueless when they started the trip as they were when they ended it. We expected nothing from either of them from the start of the show and that’s exactly what we got from them. It was hysterical watching James play a man so utterly contemptible and basic in his sexuality, showing no shame in his actions either in trying to bully his college roommate or seduce his wife, blatantly lie to everybody and be utterly baffled as to why his friend would want to beat him up at the end of the series. Cameron was as clueless as the jungle beasts his wife compared him to, so maybe he’ll come out of it the happiest. James has been acting in TV for awhile but this is his first truly great role and its worthy of a nomination. Con: This kind of dullness didn’t work out for Steve Zahn or Jake Lacy against Murray Bartlett last time; I doubt it will work here.

Matthew MacFayden, Succession. Odds: 4-1. For Playing: Tom, trying to balance his power play with his betrayal of his wife. Pro: Since the nominations were announced it seemed a near certain that MacFayden was going to repeat last year’s win. And it’s hard to argue that given the evidence of the last season. He called and told everybody that Logan was dying. Having made his choice to be on Logan’s side, he was the victim of a stunning reversal with Logan’s death. One day, he seemed to be reconciling with Shiv; the very next night the two of them have the fight that’s been building for four seasons when Tom finally laid all of Shiv’s flaws for her to see – and she refused to acknowledge them. He abandoned his responsibilities on election night and spent as much time trying to get in with the head of the company. He sold out Shiv in order to get the title. And he technically won ‘Succession’ – but we all know the win was meaningless. Tom lost his soul and may have gained the world – but he won’t even have that for long. MacFayden deserves another Emmy for the pain he’s undergone. Con: MacFayden has won before and it’s never been easy to win in the category when there were only three nominees. Can he pull it out with three of his co-stars in the category?

Alan Ruck, Succession. Odds: 13-2. For Playing: Connor, the oldest Roy son trying to build a new life. Pro: I’ve always thought Connor Roy was the only sympathetic character in the Roy family, maybe because he never cared enough about Waystar Royco to be spoiled by it. And Ruck’s work in the final season featured some of the greatest moments. When he brought the family together to try and reconcile and it blew up, he made it very clear just how broken his siblings were in regard to their father – and that he was in a different way. In the wedding where Logan died, his reaction was the most honest: “He never loved me!” And I think that at the end of the episode, where he took his new wife’s hand at a deserted service, he looked happier than anyone of the Roy siblings. While his three siblings spent their time trying to position themselves to take over the company, he was the one taking care of every aspect of their father’s burial and memorial. Even his devastating loss on Election night seemed far less painful then what his siblings did for the country. I really think that Connor was the winner of Succession and because Ruck has never received his due for his work on the series, I think he deserves an Emmy. Con: No one had any real respect for either Connor or Ruck’s work on the series during the four years the show was on the air. Throw in the fact that there has been some recent controversy involving him, and it might not be enough for him to prevail.

Will Sharpe, The White Lotus. Odds: 17-2. For Playing: Ethan Spiller, celebrating the sale of his company and dealing with the struggles of his marriage. Pro: You so wanted for Ethan to come out on the other side of this winning. He was really a sad sack who just wanted to work things out. His marriage was unhappy and he clearly was being bullied by his old roommate who he wanted to triumph over. And he tried so hard to prove himself a man. But as always on The White Lotus, his efforts were useless. While you could argue that he managed to prove himself a bit in the final episode of the series, by this point we all know better: there’s no way to look at either him or his marriage as worse than we came to the hotel in the first place.  The Emmys should reward him. Con: But they won’t. If the Emmys will recognize anyone from the series (a long shot) it’s going to be from the Di Grasso family and not one of the two men who no one in this series could root for. (Their wives are another story…but that’s in the next article.)

Alexander Skarsgard, Succession. Odds: 6-1. For Playing: Lukas Matsson, the social media mogul trying to acquire Waystar Royco. Pro: Skarsgard has been rising in the polls for the last few weeks and considering the nature of his character it is to see why. He was the final antagonist of the Roys in the season and was yet another example of someone so rich and powerful that no one noticed how utterly clueless he was or how much of a house of sand his company was until the acquisition began. Just a little bit of effort could have done to outmaneuver him and the Roys were utterly incapable of doing it. Skarsgard utter willingness to be a sexist and clueless jerk – he even told Tom the only reason he was making him figurehead was so he wouldn’t be tempted to sleep with Shiv! – would have been horrible were it not so hysterical. Skarsgard demonstrates in his third consecutive project for HBO that he is one their greatest discoveries. Con: This is a very divided field and there are more powerful nominees here. Lukas took over Waystar. Can he take another Emmy from the Roys?

 

PREDICTION: Much as I would like to see Abraham or Ruck prevail, it’s likely that MacFayden triumphs here.

 

Tomorrow I wrap it up with Best Supporting Actress as well as the remainder of the major categories. And in this one I’m definitely going against the tide.

 

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