I didn’t know
when I started my predictions three weeks ago that in a weird way I had saved
the best for last. Perhaps I should have known as much when the nominations
came out, though I was dealing with the issue that many of my preferred choices
– including Lena Headey and Judy Greer for White House Plumbers – had been
shafted.
Now looking
at the nominated performers and their roles, I am more impressed with the Emmys
in this category that almost any of the others among the ones I’ve dealt with.
With one exception that I’ll make clear a little later on, six of the nominees
in this category are among the greatest actress in the history of prestige TV
as well as the most versatile. Claire Danes’ ability we have known about for a
very long time, particularly in the past decade. But the other five, despite
their constant working throughout the last ten years have been perennially under
recognized by the Emmys in comparison to the incredible range of their work.
And that’s before you get to the level of their performances many of which I
had not gotten the full context last summer. Now having seen almost all of the
nominated performances, it is clear that the Emmys made the right choices for
almost all of them.
The likely
winner seems inevitable and has been predetermined since January. But let’s pay
attention to all of these talented women and the incredible work they did.
Annaleigh
Ashford, Welcome to Chippendales. 13-2. For Playing: Irene, the shy
accountant who falls in love with Steve and finds out what ‘for better or for
worse’ means. Pro: Ever since she
started to steal scenes right under the noses of the incredibly stiff Michael
Sheen in Masters of Sex, I have been unabashedly in awe of Ashford. She
has given great performances in Unbelievable, stole the show as Paula
Jones in Impeachment and managed to give life to the drab B Positive.
It is appalling this is her first Emmy nomination, but in a way her work as
Irene is her most remarkable performance. In all her other great roles, Ashford
has played robust, incredibly powerful women. As Irene she is one of the nicest
and more introverted of the four characters, a perfect mate for Steve at the
start of the series and then an unwitting spectator as she realizes just how
unfit her husband is to handle his wealth or to take responsibility for the
actions he has done without her consent. The only reason Chippendale’s is still
functioning was because it was under Irene’s stewardship today and you find
yourself wondering if Steve had merely let her in more, fewer people would have
died. Con: Despite her nomination from the HCA, Ashford’s nod came as a
shock to many. It’s hard to imagine she’ll come out ahead.
Maria Bello, Beef.
Odds: 6-1. For Playing: Jordan, the billionaire furniture owner
whose money and approval Amy desperately wants. Pro: Bello has been one
of the most brilliant actresses in Hollywood for more than thirty years and a
minor force in TV ever since her one season stint on ER in 1997. She
spent several seasons on NCIS and one on Goliath but her work as
Jordan is one of the most incredible performances she’s done. I loved every
moment that Bello was onscreen as you could see her being the kind of woman who
was more or less buying her friends and spouses: at one point, she seems to have
traded her white husband for an Asian woman just so she could get to better
parties. It was fitting that many of the violent messes took place in her house
and her true horror came to light in front of someone who had a gun to her
head. She also got a wonderfully comic death scene which happened completely
unnoticed by everyone else. The last year
has shown Bello starting to get her due from Hollywood and I’m overjoyed to see
her nominated. Con: As glorious as her performance is, some voters might
not feel comfortable awarding an Emmy to the only white regular in an Asian led
series. That is the point of Bello’s performance, but the optics aren’t good.
Claire Danes,
Fleishman is in Trouble. Odds: 6-1. For Playing: Rachel, Toby
Fleishman’s newly divorced wife, who disappears without a trace. Pro: For
most of the series Rachel is a ghost who no one knows where she is. We see her
almost entirely through the perspective of Toby and our view of her is a harridan
who has no room in her life for her husband or her children, only her career.
Then, in the penultimate episode (which is no doubt how Danes got the
nomination) we see all of Rachel’s story and changes the perspective of the
series – and in my opinion helped redeem it. We see how utterly broken Rachel
was before she came to Toby’s life, how she seems to be in a good place before
a violation so horrible happened to her it broke her in a way she never
recovered from, that she course corrected in a way that destroyed her marriage,
had an affair and finally a complete breakdown. We don’t know what happens to
Rachel – or the Fleishman’s at the end of the series – but the work of Danes is
enough to merit an award. Con: Danes has received quite a lot of
recognition from the Emmys. It’s hard to argue she needs another trophy.
Juliette
Lewis, Welcome to Chippendales. Odds: 7-1. For Playing: Denise one of
the critical forces behind the early days of Chippendale’s and whose stormy
relationship with Nick ends in tragedy. Pro: At first I thought Lewis’
nomination was a consolation prize for being ignore by the Emmys for her incredible
work in Yellowjackets. But after seeing the series, I realize that while
it’s still a crime she was ignored for that performance, she more than deserved
a nomination for her work here. As the flamboyant Denise who becomes Nick’s partner
with the dancer, as well as his lover (though it’s clear from the start she
feels more for him than he does for her) Lewis again demonstrates why she is
one of the greatest actors of all time. She’s slightly more restrained her than
some of her other work, but you can see her devotion to Nick and that she is
utterly destroyed by his murder. We never learn in the aftermath what happened
to Irene, but Lewis’ performance is memorable every step of the way. Con: I
imagine many voters think (unjustly) that so many of the nominations for Welcome
to Chippendale’s are something of an afterthought. They aren’t, but it’s
likely Lewis will be shutout as well as Ashford.
Camilla
Morrone: Odds: 13-2. For Playing: Camila Dunne, the girlfriend and future
wife of the troubled lead singer of the band. Pro: Marrone is the fresh
face in a category of veterans. She’s barely appeared in a single notable movie
and this is her first appearance in a TV series as a regular. So this
performance has understandably taken the world by storm: she received a win from
the Critics Choice for breakthrough Performance and it clearly is one. She has
a tough role to play and she’s among some very talented performers in the midst
of an adaptation of a best-selling novel. It’s not the most showy role by far
but it more than makes an impression. She had been making up ground for Emmy
and Critics Choice nominees going forward; we’ll be watching her for years to
come. Con: This is, as I said, a category of veteran performers. While
the Emmys does occasionally recognize breakthrough work, it’s a long hard road.
Niecy
Nash-Betts, Dahmer. Odds: 5-1. For Playing: Glenda
Cleveland, Jeffrey Dahmer’s next door neighbor who serves as a Cassandra for
the horrors that are unfolding in her building. Pro: From the moment she
gave her extraordinary acceptance speech at the Critics Choice Awards this past
January and since The White Lotus was moved into the Best Drama
category, it seemed all but a certainty that Nash-Betts was going to triumph at
the Emmys. And to be clear, Nash-Betts has been one of the great forces in TV
as well as among the most versatile for nearly twenty years. From her breakout
role in Reno 911, The Soul Man and the undervalued Getting On, she
was one of the great comic and superb humane actresses. She has been one of the
most astonishing dramatic actresses in When they See Us, Claws and the recently
cancelled Rookie: Feds. And now in Dahmer she reaches new heights
as the woman who saw what a monster her neighbor was for months and who the
police ignored, saw the world celebrate Dahmer, keep the police on staff, lose
her home and finally see that no tribute to be paid to those were killed. Betts
has been nominated three times for acting but never won. It is her time to tell
the world who doubted her ‘IN YOUR FACE!”. Con: The only think that
seems likely to stand in her way of the prize is the controversy over Dahmer.
Merritt
Weyer, Tiny Beautiful Things. Odds: 6-1. For Playing: Frankie Pierce,
the ailing mother of young Claire. Pro: I have been in awe of Weyer ever
since I first saw her steal every scene in Nurse Jackie out of the hands
of Edie Falco. I thought her Emmy for Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy was
one of the absolutely correct choices the Emmys have ever made. (Loved her
acceptance speech too.) Weyer has been a force in Netflix, winning a second
Emmy for her work in the Limited Series Godless and somehow being ignored
for her revolutionary work in the equally brilliant Unbelievable. (I’m
willing to forgive Run. ) Now she adds a somewhat softer version of the
characters she been playing in the last several limited series I’ve seen, a
mother who is a force in her daughter’s life and whose illness becomes a
defining moment. Many were shocked when she was among the nominated performers
(myself included) but I’m always glad to see her recognized. Con: Weyer’s
work is lighter than many of the other nominees (though there are some pretty
rollicking performance in this category) and combined with her previous wins,
she may get ignored. (Then again, both of her previous wins came as a shock to
everybody else.)
Prediction: Nash-Betts gets
to give another boisterous speech and I couldn’t be happier for her.
WRITING AND
DIRECTING
I am inclined
to think Beef will take the prize for Figures of Light. Directing
is a harder sell, considering three of the six nominees are films. I think
there’s a good chance that Weird might manage an upset.
ET AL.
Late Night
With John Oliver will
triumph in the new Variety Scripted Series. I am hoping that Seth Meyers
finally wins an Emmy, though I am okay with Stephen Colbert taking the prize. I
would like to see Jeopardy Masters take Best Game Show and either Ken
Jennings or Mayim Bialik take the first ever prize for Best Game Show Host. I don’t
think I have to give an explanation as to why.
I’ll deal
with the Emmys on January 16th. But don’t worry. In the opening
weeks of January I will be covering with greater interest and anticipation, my predictions
and hopes for all the awards shows involving TV that are going to unfold in the
first two weeks of the year. I’m in my happy place.
I’ll also
eventually get to some of the other TV awards shows in the weeks to come: the
SAG awards, the Image awards and some of the nominations (under protest) for
the Spirit Awards all on TV.
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