Friday, December 22, 2023

My Predictions For This Year's Emmys Conclusion: Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series Et Al

 

I didn’t know when I started my predictions three weeks ago that in a weird way I had saved the best for last. Perhaps I should have known as much when the nominations came out, though I was dealing with the issue that many of my preferred choices – including Lena Headey and Judy Greer for White House Plumbers – had been shafted.

Now looking at the nominated performers and their roles, I am more impressed with the Emmys in this category that almost any of the others among the ones I’ve dealt with. With one exception that I’ll make clear a little later on, six of the nominees in this category are among the greatest actress in the history of prestige TV as well as the most versatile. Claire Danes’ ability we have known about for a very long time, particularly in the past decade. But the other five, despite their constant working throughout the last ten years have been perennially under recognized by the Emmys in comparison to the incredible range of their work. And that’s before you get to the level of their performances many of which I had not gotten the full context last summer. Now having seen almost all of the nominated performances, it is clear that the Emmys made the right choices for almost all of them.

The likely winner seems inevitable and has been predetermined since January. But let’s pay attention to all of these talented women and the incredible work they did.

Annaleigh Ashford, Welcome to Chippendales. 13-2. For Playing: Irene, the shy accountant who falls in love with Steve and finds out what ‘for better or for worse’ means. Pro:  Ever since she started to steal scenes right under the noses of the incredibly stiff Michael Sheen in Masters of Sex, I have been unabashedly in awe of Ashford. She has given great performances in Unbelievable, stole the show as Paula Jones in Impeachment and managed to give life to the drab B Positive. It is appalling this is her first Emmy nomination, but in a way her work as Irene is her most remarkable performance. In all her other great roles, Ashford has played robust, incredibly powerful women. As Irene she is one of the nicest and more introverted of the four characters, a perfect mate for Steve at the start of the series and then an unwitting spectator as she realizes just how unfit her husband is to handle his wealth or to take responsibility for the actions he has done without her consent. The only reason Chippendale’s is still functioning was because it was under Irene’s stewardship today and you find yourself wondering if Steve had merely let her in more, fewer people would have died. Con: Despite her nomination from the HCA, Ashford’s nod came as a shock to many. It’s hard to imagine she’ll come out ahead.

Maria Bello, Beef. Odds: 6-1. For Playing: Jordan, the billionaire furniture owner whose money and approval Amy desperately wants. Pro: Bello has been one of the most brilliant actresses in Hollywood for more than thirty years and a minor force in TV ever since her one season stint on ER in 1997. She spent several seasons on NCIS and one on Goliath but her work as Jordan is one of the most incredible performances she’s done. I loved every moment that Bello was onscreen as you could see her being the kind of woman who was more or less buying her friends and spouses: at one point, she seems to have traded her white husband for an Asian woman just so she could get to better parties. It was fitting that many of the violent messes took place in her house and her true horror came to light in front of someone who had a gun to her head. She also got a wonderfully comic death scene which happened completely unnoticed  by everyone else. The last year has shown Bello starting to get her due from Hollywood and I’m overjoyed to see her nominated. Con: As glorious as her performance is, some voters might not feel comfortable awarding an Emmy to the only white regular in an Asian led series. That is the point of Bello’s performance, but the optics aren’t good.

Claire Danes, Fleishman is in Trouble. Odds: 6-1. For Playing: Rachel, Toby Fleishman’s newly divorced wife, who disappears without a trace. Pro: For most of the series Rachel is a ghost who no one knows where she is. We see her almost entirely through the perspective of Toby and our view of her is a harridan who has no room in her life for her husband or her children, only her career. Then, in the penultimate episode (which is no doubt how Danes got the nomination) we see all of Rachel’s story and changes the perspective of the series – and in my opinion helped redeem it. We see how utterly broken Rachel was before she came to Toby’s life, how she seems to be in a good place before a violation so horrible happened to her it broke her in a way she never recovered from, that she course corrected in a way that destroyed her marriage, had an affair and finally a complete breakdown. We don’t know what happens to Rachel – or the Fleishman’s at the end of the series – but the work of Danes is enough to merit an award. Con: Danes has received quite a lot of recognition from the Emmys. It’s hard to argue she needs another trophy.

Juliette Lewis, Welcome to Chippendales. Odds: 7-1. For Playing: Denise one of the critical forces behind the early days of Chippendale’s and whose stormy relationship with Nick ends in tragedy. Pro: At first I thought Lewis’ nomination was a consolation prize for being ignore by the Emmys for her incredible work in Yellowjackets. But after seeing the series, I realize that while it’s still a crime she was ignored for that performance, she more than deserved a nomination for her work here. As the flamboyant Denise who becomes Nick’s partner with the dancer, as well as his lover (though it’s clear from the start she feels more for him than he does for her) Lewis again demonstrates why she is one of the greatest actors of all time. She’s slightly more restrained her than some of her other work, but you can see her devotion to Nick and that she is utterly destroyed by his murder. We never learn in the aftermath what happened to Irene, but Lewis’ performance is memorable every step of the way. Con: I imagine many voters think (unjustly) that so many of the nominations for Welcome to Chippendale’s are something of an afterthought. They aren’t, but it’s likely Lewis will be shutout as well as Ashford.

Camilla Morrone: Odds: 13-2. For Playing: Camila Dunne, the girlfriend and future wife of the troubled lead singer of the band. Pro: Marrone is the fresh face in a category of veterans. She’s barely appeared in a single notable movie and this is her first appearance in a TV series as a regular. So this performance has understandably taken the world by storm: she received a win from the Critics Choice for breakthrough Performance and it clearly is one. She has a tough role to play and she’s among some very talented performers in the midst of an adaptation of a best-selling novel. It’s not the most showy role by far but it more than makes an impression. She had been making up ground for Emmy and Critics Choice nominees going forward; we’ll be watching her for years to come. Con: This is, as I said, a category of veteran performers. While the Emmys does occasionally recognize breakthrough work, it’s a long hard road.

Niecy Nash-Betts, Dahmer. Odds: 5-1. For Playing: Glenda Cleveland, Jeffrey Dahmer’s next door neighbor who serves as a Cassandra for the horrors that are unfolding in her building. Pro: From the moment she gave her extraordinary acceptance speech at the Critics Choice Awards this past January and since The White Lotus was moved into the Best Drama category, it seemed all but a certainty that Nash-Betts was going to triumph at the Emmys. And to be clear, Nash-Betts has been one of the great forces in TV as well as among the most versatile for nearly twenty years. From her breakout role in Reno 911, The Soul Man and the undervalued Getting On, she was one of the great comic and superb humane actresses. She has been one of the most astonishing dramatic actresses in When they See Us, Claws and the recently cancelled Rookie: Feds. And now in Dahmer she reaches new heights as the woman who saw what a monster her neighbor was for months and who the police ignored, saw the world celebrate Dahmer, keep the police on staff, lose her home and finally see that no tribute to be paid to those were killed. Betts has been nominated three times for acting but never won. It is her time to tell the world who doubted her ‘IN YOUR FACE!”. Con: The only think that seems likely to stand in her way of the prize is the controversy over Dahmer.

Merritt Weyer, Tiny Beautiful Things. Odds: 6-1. For Playing: Frankie Pierce, the ailing mother of young Claire. Pro: I have been in awe of Weyer ever since I first saw her steal every scene in Nurse Jackie out of the hands of Edie Falco. I thought her Emmy for Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy was one of the absolutely correct choices the Emmys have ever made. (Loved her acceptance speech too.) Weyer has been a force in Netflix, winning a second Emmy for her work in the Limited Series Godless and somehow being ignored for her revolutionary work in the equally brilliant Unbelievable. (I’m willing to forgive Run. ) Now she adds a somewhat softer version of the characters she been playing in the last several limited series I’ve seen, a mother who is a force in her daughter’s life and whose illness becomes a defining moment. Many were shocked when she was among the nominated performers (myself included) but I’m always glad to see her recognized. Con: Weyer’s work is lighter than many of the other nominees (though there are some pretty rollicking performance in this category) and combined with her previous wins, she may get ignored. (Then again, both of her previous wins came as a shock to everybody else.)

Prediction: Nash-Betts gets to give another boisterous speech and I couldn’t be happier for her.

 

WRITING AND DIRECTING

I am inclined to think Beef will take the prize for Figures of Light. Directing is a harder sell, considering three of the six nominees are films. I think there’s a good chance that Weird might manage an upset.

ET AL.

Late Night With John Oliver will triumph in the new Variety Scripted Series. I am hoping that Seth Meyers finally wins an Emmy, though I am okay with Stephen Colbert taking the prize. I would like to see Jeopardy Masters take Best Game Show and either Ken Jennings or Mayim Bialik take the first ever prize for Best Game Show Host. I don’t think I have to give an explanation as to why.

I’ll deal with the Emmys on January 16th. But don’t worry. In the opening weeks of January I will be covering with greater interest and anticipation, my predictions and hopes for all the awards shows involving TV that are going to unfold in the first two weeks of the year. I’m in my happy place.

I’ll also eventually get to some of the other TV awards shows in the weeks to come: the SAG awards, the Image awards and some of the nominations (under protest) for the Spirit Awards all on TV.

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