My Predictions For This Year's Emmys, Week 2, Day 3: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama

 

When the nominations were announced in July, I had a decidedly mixed opinion. With the passage of time I actually think the Emmys did a better job with this group than I thought at first glance. With the sole exception of either Imelda Staunton for The Crown or Juliette Lewis for Yellowjackets, this is a solid group. And considering that the lion’s share of the awards went to Zendaya for Euphoria, we have no clear frontrunner from the idea of awards. So here are my feelings.

Sharon Horgan, Bad Sisters. Odds: 6-1. For Playing: Eva, the oldest of the Garvey sisters trying to deal with the death of her youngest sister’s husband. Pro: Somehow I have managed to go through the era of Peak TV and never saw a single show that Sharon Horgan has been connected with either as a performer or a writer (almost always she is both). Having seen just the first three episodes of Bad Sisters, I now know what a bloody fool what I’ve been. Horgan, who is also nominated for writing the Pilot, is the force of nature I assume that she is in every series she’s been a part of as she plays the eldest sister who is trying to figure out how to protect her youngest who is married to ‘the Prick’ whose funeral they attended in the pilot and who she very well might have helped kill. Trying to deal with fires on multiple fronts in both timelines, Horgan rivets you every minute she is on the screen. Horgan has also been a force in television for more than twenty years on every front, most notably for her work as a hyphenate in the Amazon gem Catastrophe. The Emmys has been good to these hyphenates in recent years. Perhaps Horgan is more than due. Con: Bad Sisters dropped on Apple way back in the summer of 2022 and there have been a lot of big dramas since then. Horgan’s probably going to have to wait another year at least.

Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets. Odds: 9-2. For Playing: Shauna, coming to grips with the murder she committed recently and the trauma she’s been dealing with for twenty-five years. Pro: Lynskey absolutely should have won last year, considering she took the Critics Choice and The HCA awards in the lead up to the Emmy. And her work in the second season was just as riveting as Shauna found herself dealing with the aftermath of the murder she committed by – not dealing with it. As the season progressed we saw just how much the trauma has been bothering and how much she craves the violence of her youth. We saw that she’s never truly been able to love her daughter the way she could and that’s she never been able to love her husband. And when she was reunited with six survivors, she found herself about to become the victim of another hunt and then did everything in her power to save her daughter. In a cast with so many great female performers, it’s hard to argue that Lynskey is the best in the group, but she’s absolutely deserving of an Emmy. Con: Giving not only that Yellowjackets has been renewed but that there is overwhelming sentiment for one of the nominees in this category, the Emmys may decide to make Lynskey wait another season.

Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale. Odds: 7-1. For Playing: June, fleeing from Gilead as a rebellion unfolds. Pro: We are coming to the end of The Handmaid’s Tale run and the Emmys is running out of opportunities to honor Moss for playing one of the most memorable roles in the past decade. As she tried to choose between being a rebel and a mother, tried to win a fight that may not be winnable and found herself dealing with even more conflicts, Moss reminded us why she was one of the best performers in TV history. Con: The bloom is long since off the rose for this show, and the fact that Moss is the only major nominee from a series that got more than twenty in its last season shows how far the series has fallen from the public interest.

Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us. Odds: 9-2. For Playing: Ellie, a 14 year old girl who may be the last hope of civilization. Pro: In what was the biggest phenomena of 2023, Ramsey is by far the most remarkable star – which is astonishing considering that they’ve been acting for fourteen years and that this is even the first HBO watercooler series they’ve been a part of. But now they have truly arrive. Ramsey is listed on imdb.com as the breakout star of 2023 and has already won an MTV movie Award along with Pascal for their work on the series. Ramsey has already been nominated for every award possible for this show and has the ability of performer twice their age.  An Emmy is certainly coming. Con: It’s a tough field this year and there are already some powerhouses in this category. Ramsey will have to wait and there will be plenty of time.

Keri Russell, The Diplomat. Odds: 6-1. For Playing: Karen Wyler, a career diplomat who lands at the Court of St. James. Pro: For more than a quarter of a century, Russell has been one of the great performers in the history of television and it is beyond criminal that she has never won a single Emmy. Last year, she managed to land another great role in a Netflix series that has become another critical phenomena, given that it was nominated by the Golden Globes, the Critics’ Choice Awards and the HCA for Best Drama. Russell was nominated for Best Actress by all of these organizations and shows every sign that this is another incredible role in what has been an iconic career in TV. She’s deserved an Emmy since Felicity; it’s time to recognize her. Con: Considering every other actress in this category is going to get another bite at the apple, it’s likely she’ll be slighted again.

Sarah Snook, Succession. Odds: 10-3. For Playing: Shiv Roy, coming to grips with her pregnancy and the fallout of multiple betrayals. Pro: Snook has certainly deserved to win in the past – she actually took the Supporting Actress prize from the Critics Choice in 2022 but lost to Julia Garner. Snook’s decision to put herself in the lead category was more than worthy as she more than dominated the screen in every scene she was in. Her last scene with Logan had her being the most angry. Her reaction to her father’s death was the most emotional. She found herself dealing with the fact her brothers were willing to make America a dictatorship in order to give themselves an edge with their competitors. She spent much of the final season trying to serve as bait for the man who was buying the company. And in the final episode, she was the only one who truly realized just how horrible her brother would be for the job he’d worked her life for – and was left with a fate even emptier than she had hoped. When you consider all of the scenes she had with Tom, who betrayed her at the end of last season and the battle royale they had in which everything was laid on the table and nothing resolved, it’s easy to understand why Snook deserves the Emmy this year. Con: Snook was never able to break through the previous two years against what was somewhat weaker competition. Can she manage to do so against a powerhouse lineup?

 

MY PREDICTION: I really want Melanie Lynskey to win. I think Sarah Snook will prevail and I can’t truly say I have a problem with it.

Tomorrow I deal with Best Supporting Actor in a Drama. I predict that the winner will be…from a major HBO drama. (You’ll get the joke tomorrow if you don’t remember the nominees now.)