Okay I have
now seen all seven nominated performances in this category and I don’t question
for a moment that ability of any of their work or that they deserve to be here.
I’m still frustrated that Domhnall Gleeson was ignored for The Patient and
Justin Theroux for White House Plumbers, but I’ll concede that all seven
nominees were as good as either of them.
There is an
overwhelming favorite in this category since January and I don’t believe that’s
changed. Still let’s go through the list.
Murray
Bartlett, Welcome to Chippendale’s. Odds: 13-2. For Playing: Nick Nola,
the choreographer that turns Chippendale’s into a sensation. Pro: At
first I thought Bartlett’s nomination was a bit of residual laziness:
recognition of the follow-up project for last year’s deserved winner for The
White Lotus. Then I saw Welcome to Chippendale’s. And I got it.
Because there isn’t a single recognizable aspect of the cool, frequently
restrained Armond in the complexly outgoing, flamboyant and showmanship choreographer
of Nick. (Except of course, the fact that they are both sexual and both gay.)
Bartlett’s work was one of the greatest joys as you saw every incredible bit of
charisma and self-doubt every moment he was onscreen. He was everything Steve
Banerjee wasn’t and so much happier – which made his fate all the more gutting.
Bartlett languished in relative obscurity until The White Lotus; work
like this will put him at the forefront of the great actors in years to come. Con:
Bartlett did win in this category last year. The last time there has
been a repeat of any kind in Limited Series was when Regina King (deservedly)
won consecutive years for her work in American Crime in 2015 and 2016
and that was for an anthology show. I seriously doubt it will happen here.
Paul Walter
Hauser, Black Bird. Odds: 5-1. For Playing: Larry Hall, a
soft spoken serial killer. Pro: Hauser may be the first person to win an
Emmy almost for how he sounds rather than how he acts. The whispery soft voice
that Larry has throughout Black Bird was, if anything, a bigger draw
than his actual performance. You get the feeling as you watch Larry throughout
the series that it is his soft-spoken nature as well as his willing to say just
about anything that has allowed so many law enforcement figures to not realize
the monster that lay within. And Hauser
creates one of the more unique killers in history – a man who confesses even to
things he isn’t guilty of that nobody is ever sure he’s telling the truth.
Hauser’s bulk and attitude are such that even as we watch him throughout the
series we’re still not convinced he’s dangerous – until the final episode.
Hauser’s performance will go down in history as one of the great ones. He has
already taken the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award; an Emmy seems
inevitable. Con: The biggest obstacle in this category is one of Hauser’s
co-nominees. Even in his acceptance speeches, Hauser praised Ray Liotta. That
might be enough to give it to Liotta instead.
Richard Jenkins,
Dahmer. Odds: 11-2. For Playing: Lionel Dahmer, the father who learns
that his son is a monstrous killer. Pro: Jenkins has been one of my
favorite actors ever since he shot to stardom in Peak TV as Nathaniel Fisher in
Six Feet Under. He has deserved earned the reputation of one of the film
and TV’s best character actors ever since. His work as a man who spends his son’s
childhood unable to deal with the kind of boy he has raised, who does
everything he can to help him even though the audience knows he’s already
beyond saving, his efforts to try and save his son and then try to come to
terms with what has happened to him is one of the more riveting performances in
the series. It’s the kind of work that’s a complete contrast to the fun he
seemed to be having so much of the time as a ghost. Con: Jenkins has won
in this category before (for his performance in Olive Kitteridge) and
given the intense feeling about this series and much of the controversy
surrounding the actual Lionel Dahmer, it probably won’t help him here.
Joseph Lee, Beef. Odds: 7-1. For
Playing: George
Nakai, Amy’s (too) understanding husband. Pro: George is one of the few unequivocally
good people in the entire cast of Beef. He is a good husband and a good
father, far more devoted to the care of their daughter than Amy is. He has a
tendency to be run over by both his mother and his wife, and its telling that what
starts as a fake friendship between him and Danny grows into something genuine.
He’s probably more badly used by the two protagonists of Beef than
anyone here; by the end of the series, his wife has cheated on him, his
daughter has been abducted, and he has just tried to kill somebody. There’s something
refreshing in a show – and category – filled with bad people to see someone
recognized for being a decent person. Con: You know what they say about
nice guys. But seriously, in the world of Peak TV there is not as much
recognition for playing fundamentally decent people.
Ray Liotta, Black
Bird. Odds: 6-1. For Playing: Big Jim Keane, the ailing father of a
young career criminal. Pro: One of the great tragedy’s of 2022 was Liotta’s
sudden death right at the time he seemed on the verge of the revival of his
career. And few can watch Liotta’s work as Big Jim Keane, a father whose
dementia leads to his son making a deal with the devil, and both be struck what
a talent we lost as well as the majesty of his work. Liotta was one of the most
underrated performers in history and his role here, a variation of the cops and
criminals he played so well for most of his career, is absolutely mesmerizing
as we see a man who knows his son is in jail because of him, warns him about
the deal he’s made, and whose actions to try and help him almost inevitably
make things far worse for him. Big Jim is what Jimmy Keane is doing all his
horrific things more and it is a credit to Liotta that you realize he is worth it.
A posthumous Emmy would be a fitting triumph to his career. Con: The
Emmy does not like give posthumous awards as we saw in the case of Michael K.
Williams two years ago. Furthermore Hauser’s performance is the real show in Black
Bird and Hauser, despite his gracious deserves to win more than Liotta would
have if he had lived.
Young Mazino,
Beef. Odds: 6-1. For Playing: Paul Cho, Danny’s lackadaisical younger
brother. Pro: Our first sight of Paul is someone who seems to have no
clear ambition or path in life. Then we learn how much of a bully his older
brother can be, how desperate he is to feel love that he finds it with Amy, and
then we see just how badly his brother has wrecked his entire life just how he
isn’t left behind. By the end of Beef, it’s clear that he is the biggest
victim of the conflict at the center of this and while we know he comes out of
it alive, we don’t know what future he has. Mazino spends much of the first
episodes playing Paul as a needly slacker, then shows how easily he is
pressured and by the end of everything he is completely lost. Of the supporting
cast, he deserves a win the most. Con: There are a lot of better, showier
performances among the supporting cast of Beef. Like the character he
plays, it’s easy to see the Emmys overlooking him.
Jesse Plemons,
Love and Death. Odds: 13-2. For Playing: Allan Gore, a
Texas husband whose adulterous affair with a friend leads to tragedy. Pro: Plemons
has been one of the most undervalued actors in Peak TV since Friday Night Lights and it’s frankly a little dismaying that
is only his second Emmy nomination. His work in Love & Death is
another feather in the cap of a man who is a master of playing taciturn
characters but unlike so many of the characters he plays, there’s less beneath
the surface then on first glance, something that Candy Montgomery eventually
learns. There’s some very odd about how Allan just seems to drift through his adulterous
affairs even as they happen, and that his concern for the women he cares about
seems to come just a little too late. If anything he’s more of a mystery than
Candy is when the series ends, and it’s another demonstration of how good an
actor Plemons is that we still think there’s nothing were not seeing at the
end. Con: For reasons that defy logic in my mind, Plemons is the sole
nominee from Love & Death. This is the Emmys fault (other awards
shows this year have been more than willing to pick up the slack) but it’s a
near guarantee that Plemons will go home empty handed again.
PREDICTION: Basically it’s
the same as its been since January. Hauser wins this in a walk.
Tomorrow I wrap
everything up in a bow. I will deal with Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited
Series, all of the awards associated with it and some personal predictions
among the other major and minor categories.
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