My Predictions for the 2023 HCA TV Awards, Part 1: Drama

 

 

The holidays may be over but for me, this will be the most wonderful time of the year. Over the next week, the awards shows that each provide various degrees of joy will all be airing across TV and streaming. To be sure the reason is not a great one – two of them were postponed because of the strikes that crippled Hollywood for five months  - but in a sense, I’m willing to accept that.

Given how much strife there has been in the medium I have spent the last eight years covering for this blog and loved for a decade before, I need to experience some joy. The fact that the awards shows that give me so much of it are now airing over an eight day period will do so as well as help me prep for the year to come, something I have been loathe to do as long as the awards were still in flux. So I will begin with an awards show that over just two years has become arguably my favorite: the HCA TV awards.

With each new year the HCA has become the awards show most fitting to deal with the era of TV we live in. By dividing its awards between broadcast, cable and streaming, it has the Gordian knot that the first has been unable to break through against by and large for the past decade. Furthermore, with more nominees it has the ability to recognize so many shows that might very well fall under the radar, much as the Critics Choice has done for the past fourteen years. And like the Critics Choice, there are so many qualified nominees that the old adage ‘it’s an honor just to be nominated’ is true here.

Also like the Critics Choice, but unlike the Emmys it has been very difficult to predict the winners in many of the categories. Indeed, in the first year of their existence I assumed the winners in Best Drama for network, cable and streaming would be, in order This is Us, Pose and The Crown. I was wrong in all three cases. Similarly the HCA has a tendency not only for ties, but to share the wealth in a way I truly respect.

So over the next three days I will attempt to predict the major winners at the HCA which will air on YouTube on the HCA channel January 8^th starting at 8pm. ‘Attempt’ is the critical word here; the show has surprised me the last two years and I expect the same will happen. I will spread this out as I do with the Emmys and the Critics Choice Awards: I will try to predict Drama, Comedy and Limited Series/TV Movie. I’m going to start with Drama, in large part because I thought the HCA did a far better job than the Emmys (as they have the past two years) and because, unlike with all the other awards shows, there are no guarantee that the favorites for the last several months or the weeks to come will be anywhere near what we will see.

BEST BROADCAST DRAMA

The first year I was certain that This Is Us would take the prize. Instead it went to New Amsterdam. It did win the following year. Now New Amsterdam, which is in its final season could repeat for its last year. It could also go to The Cleaning Lady or Quantum Leap.

That said, I’m relatively confident the winner will be the breakout network success among dramas Will Trent. It received eight nominations, more than any network series here as well as multiple nominations for writing and direction. And considering that Ramon Rodriguez has gotten his share of awards recognition this past few weeks, I think the love is genuine.

Should Win/Will Win: Will Trent

 

BEST CABLE DRAMA

Last year Succession dominated every major awards show leading up the Emmys – except the HCA. It only won Best Drama, and only in a tie with the fifth season of Better Call Saul. Indeed, the major winners among the cable awards were Saul and Yellowjackets. Yellowjackets, for the record, is the most nominated show, period with thirteen. Succession only got seven, and it only got a single nomination in both writing and directing. Yellowjackets got two apiece in writing and directing and six in acting. The White Lotus got a total of five nominations and only one Supporting Actor nod. The HCA clearly has it head on straight.

I’m not necessarily saying Succession won’t win here, but the HCA has yet to go along with the gang on just about anything in the last two years. We also can’t rule out Better Call Saul, which won last year and also won the HCA might prevail as well.

I’m relatively certain every other awards show in the next week will crown Succession. Here I have uncertainty. So I’m going to say Succession will tie, either with Saul or Yellowjackets. Which one I’m not sure but all three are superb choices

Should Win /Will Win: Some combination of Succession, Yellowjackets or Better Call Saul. (I know, I’m being very helpful.)

 

BEST STREAMING DRAMA

In its inaugural year, The Crown took three of four acting prize but Best Drama went to The Mandalorian. Last year, I was certain Squid Game would dominate and the major winner was Severance. So let’s work through elimination.

The Mandalorian went through a decline in quality. Star Trek: Picard and The Handmaid’s Tale are not going to win. 1923 doesn’t have enough momentum. The Boys might be able to pull it out. Bridgerton hasn’t done particularly well among streaming. Andor and Bad Sisters are dark horse, and the former might have enough momentum. The fifth season of The Crown was underrated but they didn’t recognize it before.

I’m going to gamble and say it will come down between Andor and The Diplomat both of which received a lot of respect and nominations from other shows. I’m giving Andor a slight edge.

Should Win: The Diplomat

Will Win: The Crown/Andor.

 

BEST ACTOR IN A BROADCAST/CABLE DRAMA

There’s only one Roy in this category which increases Kieran Culkin’s odds immensely. But last year both Brian Cox and Jeremy Strong were beaten by Bob Odenkirk, deservedly for Better Call Saul. Kevin Costner won the Golden Globe for Yellowstone. Odenkirk took the HCA and Pedro Pascal has been deservedly gaining momentum for The Last of Us. Part of me would like to see an underdog like Rodriguez or Milo Ventimiglia win, but I think in this case the HCA will go with Odenkirk. There are a lot of great performances in this category, but Odenkirk has always been (deservedly) a Critics favorite. I think he should easily win here.

Should Win/Will Win: Odenkirk

 

BEST ACTOR IN A STREAMING DRAMA

You might not be aware but there were no Emmy nominees for an actor in a streaming series this year. Therefore I have no clear roadmap as to who to even guess.

My personal preferences are Diego Luna for Andor or Dominic West for The Crown. Both are among my favorite actors and both gave superb performances in their respective shows. It is possible Harrison Ford could be the sentimental favorite for 1923 and I don’t think anyone would object. (I might, but only because I’m picking him for a different show.)

For now, I’m giving the barest of edges to West, who has been part of Peak TV since The Wire and has yet to win a single award to show for it. He’s more than due.

Should Win: Luna/West.

Will Win: West

 

BEST ACTRESS IN A BROADCAST/CABLE DRAMA

Again the obvious choice is Sarah Snook, but last year she got run over by Rhea Seehorn (deservedly). This category has the presence of Melanie Lynskey who deserved to win the Emmy both this year and last year. But there are other nominees who more than have a chance: Bella Ramsey has been picking up momentum for Last of Us and on a personal note, I’d really like to see Juliette Lewis up there for her farewell performance.

I think that Snook has enough momentum to prevail but I wouldn’t rule out another upset from one of the women from Yellowjackets. It happened to Mandy Moore last year, it could happen here.

Should Win: Lewis/Lynskey.

Will Win: Snook.

 

BEST ACTRESS IN A STREAMING DRAMA

I think that this one will come down to one of two choices: Sharon Horgan for Bad Sisters or Keri Russell for The Diplomat. Both have much to recommend them: Horgan has been part of Peak TV for awhile as a hyphenate and has gotten no recognition. Russell has been acting for a quarter of a century and has gotten less.

It’s a tough call, but I’m going to give the edge to Russell. Given how much momentum there has been for The Diplomat in the Golden Globes and Critics Choice, I think the HCA in a category with no Snook, will give Russell the prize.

Should Win: Horgan/Russell.

Will Win: Russell.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A BROADCAST/CABLE DRAMA

Only two Emmy nominees are in this category: Matthew MacFayden, Alexander Skarsgard and Theo James. The HCA chose to nominate Jonathan Banks, Matt Smith and Elijah Wood, all of whom the Emmys overlooked. Critics – we get the job done.

Giancarlo Esposito won in this category last year and the Critics’ Choice but was not nominated. That’s actually reasonable, considering he was only in two episodes of the final season. Banks very well could prevail and many were fond of Smith. My preference is for Banks, but in this case I would expect MacFayden to win. HCA, prove me wrong.

Should Win: Banks.

Will Win: MacFayden

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A STREAMING DRAMA

Just as with Best Actor, I have no road map in the Emmys to guide me. That said, I think it will come down to one of two actors in a Netflix series who has received nominations from other awards shows: Jonathan Pryce, who received Golden Globe nominations for The Crown and Rufus Sewell, who was nominated for The Diplomat by the Critics’ Choice. I personally would prefer Pryce because I’ve admired him for longer but in this case, I’ll go with Sewell, whose been a force in Peak TV and frankly whose work on The Diplomat deserves as much praise as Russell’s.

Should Win: Pryce.

Will Win: Russell.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A STREAMING DRAMA

I know Jennifer Coolidge has already won every award in the book for her work in The White Lotus in the last year – and she won for Best Limited Series from the HCA. But it’s a different year and a different set of nominees. Frankly it’s a much tougher field than the Emmys.

For one thing Rhea Seehorn has got momentum from the last few month and she did win in this same category last year. And you can never rule out the work of Christina Ricci, who the Emmys shafted last year but the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice recognized. I’m relatively sure it will be one of those three ladies but who?

I’ll go out on a limb. This time I’m going for Ricci. Seehorn and Coolidge are more than deserving winners – I fully expect one to prevail at the Emmys next week. But in this case, I’m leaning towards Ricci. I would love to be proven wrong – I’d also like to see Sonja Sohn or Lauren Ambrose prevail, but here I hope the HCA gets Misty.

Should Win: Sohn/Ricci.

Will Win: Coolidge/Seehorn.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A STREAMING DRAMA

This is the easiest one of the group. Not because there aren’t a lack of qualified nominees – Sarah Desjardins deserves to win for The Night Agent and Genevieve O’Reilly was superb as Mon Mothma in Andor. I’d also love to see Jeri Ryan or Yvonne Strahovski win.

But it’s going to go to Elizabeth Debicki for her work in The Crown as Princess Diana. Debicki has been part of every awards nominated group in the last year, including the SAG awards. Even people who didn’t like the fifth season loved her work. Considering the nominations she’s received from the Golden Globes and Critics Choice, I’m pretty sure she’ll win one of them.

Should Win/Will Win: Debicki.

 

WRITING AND DIRECTING

I’m relatively certain that the ‘Conor’s Wedding’ of Succession will win both in Direction and Writing for Broadcast and Cable.  I might not be as much if The Last of Us was nominated in either, and I might want to see Yellowjackets win but I’m confident that the magnificence of the episode will prevail.

As for Streaming, I’m going to go for Andor in Direction and writing I will go for ‘Gunpowder’ episode of The Crown.

As for Guest Actor, I think I’ll go for Nick Offerman for The Last of Us. Guest Actress – Ella Purnell for Yellowjackets. Her performance was good enough to eat (sorry, I couldn’t help it)

Tomorrow I deal with comedy. Which will be even more fun.