As we go to Comedy we have more of a potential
for surprises down the line. The HCA has a habit of giving multiple awards to
one show in this category and then giving the grand prize to a show that’s won
nothing. Last year, Barry took both male lead acting awards in Broadcast
Cable and directing but lost the big prize to What We Do In The Shadows. The
same could very well happen this year as both shows are nominated again for
Best Cable Comedy.
But there are also many
surprises, not the least of which is the dominance of Party Down’s third
season. That series is the most nominated cable series and is the kind of
beloved series that might well upset here. Could it happen? We’ll have to see.
For now, here are my
predictions.
BEST BROADCAST COMEDY
This should be the easiest
pick of the night. While I have a certain sentiment for Not Dead Yet, Abbott
Elementary has won every major comedy award in sight the last year. I feel
less certain it will triumph at the other awards show in the next week (though
I’m still pretty certain it will triumph at the Emmys) but it’s not a close
question here.
Should Win/Will Win: Abbott
Elementary.
BEST CABLE COMEDY
The only series I’m relatively
certainly won’t win are Dave or Blindspotting. There’s an
argument for the other four. Party Down was beloved by millions and every
other awards show has ignored it. What We Do In The Shadows has been
underrecognized by the Emmys (though not the Critics’ Choice). Atlanta and
Barry both ended perfectly.
I would prefer to see Atlanta
be the one to go out on a high note because it was basically forgotten by
most awards shows in its final season. I know I went with Barry last
time and I was proven incorrect. But given the number of nominations its gotten
I’ll go out on a limb again.
Should Win: Atlanta.
Will Win: Barry.
BEST STREAMING COMEDY
Ted Lasso dominated the inaugural awards
but did poorly in its sophomore season. It’s final season divided many so I don’t
think it’ll prevail. Aside from Tulsa King and Jury Duty, there’s
an argument for all the ones remaining. Only Murders in the Building received
a lot of recognition last year from the HCA. Poker Face has become a
sensation and the HCA gave it far more due than the Emmys did. Ditto Wednesday
and Shrinking. Jury Duty has deservedly received a huge
amount of critical reception.
In the end I’m willing to
predict here where I wasn’t willing to go with the Emmys: The Bear. Considering
that it is likely to dominate the Golden Globes and Critics Choice awards for
its second season, it seems pretty clear that the HCA will be willing to do so
for its second. I personally wouldn’t mind if Shrinking prevailed but The
Bear is more than worthy. (Not happy Reservation Dogs was shut out,
though.)
Should Win/Will Win: The
Bear.
BEST ACTOR IN A
BROADCAST/CABLE COMEDY
This is a more than solid
group. Bob Odenkirk should win something for Lucky Hank, but it’s
unlikely. Adam Scott sure as hell showed his versatility after being nominated
for Severance last year. John Laroquette returned in his iconic role and
very well could upset. But I’m going to go with last year’s winner Bill Hader
for Barry. His work was one of the best performances in all of 2023, and
he more than deserves to repeat. I just hope he’s there to pick it up this
time.
Should Win/Will Win: Hader.
BEST ACTOR IN A STREAMING
COMEDY
Jason Sudeikis took the
prize in the inaugural year. Martin Short was the upset winner last year. Both
are back this time as is Steve Martin. Jason Segel is more than overdue. But this is
a no-brainer. Jeremy Allan White has already won every prize in the book for
Season 1, and I expect him to do much of the same for the next few weeks for
Season 2. I look forward to his speech.
Should Win/Will Win:
White.
BEST ACTRESS IN A
BROADCAST/CABLE COMEDY
I admit there are many
performers I wish would win. Sofia Black-Delia deserves recognition for the now
cancelled Single Drunk Female. Marcia Gay Harden is long overdue some recognition
for her work, and I would love to see So Help Me Tood win anything. Gina
Rodriguez’s work in Not Dead Yet was a brilliant performance.
But I’m relatively certain
Brunson repeats. I admit I could be wrong – I was certain that Sudeikis would
repeat and he didn’t – but no one’s saying that anything about a decline in Abbott
Elementary the same way they did about Ted Lasso. Besides she still
deserves it.
Should Win: Harden/Rodriguez.
Will Win: Brunson.
BEST ACTRESS IN A
STREAMING COMEDY
This is going to be
tricky. Selena Gomez managed an upset victory over Jean Smart last year and
could win without here in the category. But there are many good choices here.
Jenna Ortega’s work was
brilliant in Wednesday but there’s still controversy surrounding her. So
I think the choice will come down to Natasha Lyonne for Poker Face and
Christina Applegate for Dead to Me. Lyonne has been gaining momentum but
Applegate is beyond the sentimental favorite. I would love for her to win at
the Emmys in two weeks, but I’m just not sure it’ll happen. So I’m going to bet
that the sentimentality – as well as the incredible performance in this
underrated show’s final season – carries the day.
Should Win: Applegate.
Will Win:
Applegate/Lyonne.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A
BROADCAST/CABLE COMEDY
This is going to be tough.
I think the three nominees in Party Down will split the vote. I would
love it if Bryan Tyree Henry could get a win for Atlanta (the
penultimate episode alone was worth it) but he was undervalued during the show’s
run and I don’t think it will work now. Ultimately this will come down to the
two previous winners over the last year: Tyler James Williams, who took the
Golden Globe for Abbott Elementary and Henry Winkler who won the Critics
Choice for Barry and who won in this category last year.
It is a very tough call.
Both gave extraordinary performances of different
types. Williams was comic bemusement, Winkler was tragicomedy. I’m giving the
barest of edges to Williams but I’m not ruling out a tie.
Should Win: Williams/Winkler.
Will Win: Williams.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A
STREAMING COMEDY
Brett Goldstein has won
the first two awards in HCA history and has always been known for making
brilliant speeches whenever he does. He’s also a part of the incredible Shrinking
which might give him some momentum. However, given the decline in the love
for Ted Lasso this past year, I think it’s unlikely.
I think at the end of the
day there are likely three candidates to win: James Marsden for Jury Duty, Harrison
Ford for Shrinking or Ebon Moss-Bachrach for The Bear. All have vast
merits to being chosen. Marsden has the difficulty of competing against himself
for his equally brilliant work in Dead to Me, so he might divide his
vote. Moss-Bachrach has been getting a lot of momentum and I expect he will win
a few awards in the next week.
But I’m going to let both
sentiment and talent carry the day and go for Harrison Ford for his incredible
comic work in Shrinking.
After
half a century of being undervalued for being the most natural actor working,
Peak TV has caught up with Ford. He was nominated twice, for his work in this
show and 1923. I believe this is where he is far more likely to win and
I can not think of an actor who deserves it more. His performance as Paul alone
makes streaming Shrinking worth your time.
Should Win: Moss-Bachrach/Ford.
Will Win: Ford.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN
A BROADCAST/CABLE COMEDY
This is going to be
tricky. We have three extraordinary talents nominated for Party Down and
personally I’d like to see Jennifer Garner win something. Sarah Goldberg has
never gotten her due for Barry and I think she more than deserves
something for being the target of so much wrath from the internet. Zazie Beetz
more than deserves a prize for her work in Atlanta.
But I think again, it will
come down to one of the three extraordinary performers in Abbott Elementary.
Janelle James, it’s worth noting won last year and also took the Image award. Sheryl Lee Ralph, in addition to
her Emmy, won the Critics Choice Award and gave just as astounding a speech
there as she did at the Emmys. Someday, someone has to give something to Lisa
Ann Walter.
I would be fine if James
repeated, but I’m going to go with Ralph. Yes I want her to win as much as
anybody.
Should Win: Basically
Anybody.
Will Win: Ralph (but no
bad choices.)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN
A STREAMING COMEDY
Hannah Einbinder, who tied
in this category the first year and won on her own the second, is not eligible.
Hannah Waddingham, who tied with Einbinder is, but I think most people think
she’s won enough awards for Ted Lasso already.
And there are a lot of
good choices. I think Rachel Bloom should win, just because I love everything
she does. Christina Ricci deserves to win at least one award this year and she’s
just as good in Wednesday as Yellowjackets. And Jessica Williams
performance has been an utter joy in Shrinking.
But let’s not kid
ourselves, this one is a gimme. Ayo Edebiri officially became a breakout star
in 2022. She’s nominated in three different categories, including a Guest
Actress spot and for co-writing an episode of What We Do In The Shadows. She
is going to win at least one award Monday, and it’s pretty clear it’s going to
be the first in a long line she’s going to be accepting in the weeks – and
years – to come. I have no problem with that.
Should Win: Ricci/Williams.
Will Win: Edebiri.
WRITING AND DIRECTING
In Writing for Broadcast
or Cable, it comes down to either Brunson or Hader for their respective shows.
For directing, Hader takes it for the series finale no question.
For streaming The Bear definitely
wins for ‘Review’ a technical masterpiece. I’m less certain about
writing – it could win there, but they could just as easily go for Shrinking
or Poker Face.
GUEST ACTOR OR ACTRESS
This is a lot tougher than
the Emmys. I’m going to go out on a limb and say Simon Helberg will win for Poker
Face. Taraji P. Henson doesn’t have nearly a sure thing. Aubrey Plaza,
Catherine Zeta-Jones and Stephanie Hsu all could pull it out. We’ll see.
Tomorrow I wrap it up with
Movie/Limited Series as well as some ephemera. Here we’ve got a lot of great
choices the Emmys left out.
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