Mistakes Professionals Keep Making When Trying to Predict The Emmys (From An Amateur Who Every Year Makes a Lot Of Them) Introduction and Part 1

 

Introduction

As anyone who's read my blog is more than aware I have spent more than my share of time trying to predict the Emmys: both when it comes to nominations and awards. I've always considered my status 'amateur' as opposed to the critics who watch every major TV show on the air, who vote in many of the 'lesser' awards shows that I still admire immensely and the experts who follow them on websites such as Gold Derby.

I'm also far more aware than even some of today's experts of the Emmys about certain patterns that the academy has when it comes to nominations and awards. In the last decade they've made great strides in breaking the majority of them and expanding to meet the era of Peak TV but that doesn't mean their perfect. And more importantly, it means that trying to predict what the Emmys will do has always been more art than science as indeed it should be.

And after more than a quarter of a century of watching the Emmys and nearly a decade of being an 'amateur' critic I think I'm now in a position to try and impart my readers and maybe even those who try to handicap them about why those who try to figure out who the Emmys will give nominations and often awards to is not something that can be resolved through algorithms, straw polls or trying to figure out a consensus. I suspect as technology becomes more and more advance various sites will try to keep finding a way to perfect these methods of prediction. Considering how poorly they have done when science was involved – and how we should be having a clearer look at these kinds of numbers on every level, not just entertainment – I think it might be worth something to impart the lessons I've learned but that I remain continuously unsure that critics and other sites are able to.

What follows will be an ongoing series of articles about those lessons. Not all of them will relate to this year's Emmys and it will be updated with each new season as the awards seasons and TV itself continue to evolve. Some of it will involve material I've covered in other columns related to the Emmys. Some of it will be new material. All of it, I hope, will shine a light on how so many prognosticators of the Emmys keep making the same mistakes. And because I have made many of those same mistakes over the years, I will point out where I myself was blinded by those facts over the last thirty years or so.

None of these articles, I should add, will have the same kind of judgment that those in my 'Criticizing Criticism' series have over the years. Far from it. Trying to figure out what the Emmys will do has always been a frustrating process for me and I don't envy those for whom it is a far larger part of their lives and the work they must put it. However, certain events in this year and others have made it clear that the same mistakes are often made by these so-called seers that seem more based on science then history. Hopefully by gently pointing out these mistakes we can learn from them.

 

Part 1: Get The Math Right,

Or Why The Most Nominated Show Means Less

Than You Think on Emmy Night

 

Last year it was a given that The Bear was going to dominate the Emmys for Best Comedy almost from January on. It swept the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards, the SAG Awards and almost every guild award leading up to the nominations. Some were questioning all the while whether the show was a comedy but the awards shows weren't. When The Bear got 23 nominations, it was considered all over but the shouting. The Bear was absolutely going to sweep Emmy night in September.

And as those of us who watched that didn't happen. The Bear did win nine Emmys altogether but Best Comedy series went to Hacks in what is one of the biggest upsets at the Emmys perhaps since Breaking Bad won Best Drama for the first time in 2013. (I'll deal with this at another point.)

Hacks has dominated the awards in the early months of 2025, winning Best Comedy at the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards and almost every Guild Award since. (It lost at the SAG awards to Only Murders in the Building.) It was the overwhelming favorite to win Outstanding Comedy at places like Gold Derby even before Season 4 premiered. And after it did, it was considered a lock.

Then the Emmy nominations happened and it's now dropped to number 2 behind The Studio. Now to be fair The Studio has won some awards since it debuted in February including Outstanding Streaming Comedy at the Astras and the Gotham TV Awards. But none of that mattered to the people at Gold Derby. Showing that they clearly learned nothing from last year, it is now considered the favorite because it received 24 Emmy nominations more than any comedy. Hacks got fifteen nominations, basically the same as last year and no one has said the quality of Season 4 has declined since before the nominations came out.

The thing is, I can't entirely blame the prognosticators for thinking that The Studio is going to be the big winner because it received this many nominations. In the lion's share of awards shows, from the Academy Awards to the SAG Awards, if you do well on nomination day you tend to do well on the big night. The problem is that, in my lifetime alone, there have been just as many examples when that has not been the case.

At the 1994 Emmys NYPD Blue was nominated for 24 Emmys and because of its sensation as a ratings and a critical success, it was expected to sweep on Emmys night. It won seven Emmys but did not win Best Drama, losing instead to Picket Fences.

The following year ER dominated the Emmy nominations with 25 and was expected to sweep on Emmy night. It did win 8 Emmys – tying it with the most any drama had won in history to that point – but it lost Best Drama to NYPD Blue. This set up a pattern for ER for the next three seasons: it would lead the Emmys in total nominations every one of the first four years it was on the air but only win Best Drama once. Furthermore in 1998, it lost Best Drama to The Practice which had the fewest nominations of all five nominated dramas with only four. (It ended up winning three of them.)

This pattern didn't change that much during the early 2000s with drama and not that much with comedy either. In 2004 Arrested Development, which had been nominated for twelve Emmys trailing such favorites as Everybody Loves Raymond and Friends shocked everybody when it won Outstanding Comedy Series. The following year Desperate Housewives was nominated for 21 Emmys and because it had become such a cultural milestone was expected to win Outstanding Comedy Series, even though there were questions about whether it belonged in that category. It won six Emmys but lost Outstanding Comedy to Everybody Loves Raymond in its final season.

This pattern continued through must of the 2000s and the 2010s in both drama and comedy. In its first full season 30 Rock which had finished behind t The Office and Ugly Betty in total nominations won its first Outstanding Comedy Award. Game of Thrones and Downton Abbey would be among the leaders in nominations the first four seasons they competed in the Drama category but would lose to such series as Homeland and Breaking Bad for Best Drama. And to this day getting dozens of nominations doesn't mean you'll win anything on Emmy night. In 2021 The Handmaid's Tale received 20 nominations and didn't win a single Emmy.

Now I'm not saying that there's never any correlation: anyone who witnessed the final season of Game of Thrones knows that despite how much it was disliked even by fans at the time did nothing to change the Emmy voters opinions. It received a record 33 nominations and won eleven Emmys for the last season, much as it had domination the nominations and awards the last four seasons it was on the air. It was certainly true with Succession during the last two years it was on the air and we all saw how it worked out with Shogun. But the exceptions can be there and they still happen. In 2023 Ted Lasso received 21 nominations but still ended up losing to The Bear which only had thirteen.

The thing is, time and again, those who try to predict the Emmys keep falling victim to the same blunder: the most nominated show will end up winning the biggest at the Emmys. And far too often, they make the most elementary mistake imaginable: the major difference between the Emmys and all other award shows. With the exception of the top prize (Drama, Comedy or Limited Series/TV movie) every show can have multiple nominees in the same category.

It's not like they forget when it comes to predicting the nominations in the acting categories in particular: so far this decade, drama categories are frequently dominated by one or two series such as Succession and The White Lotus. We see the exact same pattern this year in drama, this time with The White Lotus and Severance in the Supporting Actor category and the former's dominance of Supporting Actress. This can also play out with direction and writing, though in recent years the showrunners have been limited submissions to one or two episodes of those categories.

The same is frequently seen is seen occasionally in comedy series. During Ted Lasso's first three years on the air, the Supporting acting categories were dominated by the cast of that show. There's a longer history of that with comedy; we saw it play out with Modern Family when it was at its peak.

And in recent years Guest Actor and Guest Actress in a Comedy and Drama have frequently been dominated by one or two series. In 2023 all of the acting nominees in drama belonged to one of two series: Succession or The Last of Us. (The latter won both.) Last year The Bear dominated both Guest Actor and Guest Actress categories, winning both. Prior to that shows like 30 Rock and Saturday Night Live have dominated these categories and Hacks has done well as well.

The thing is when it comes to ranking the chances for a series by this standard, there's a built in fallacy: there's only one winner on Emmy night. And a lot of the time this works against those shows which have received the most nominations. It didn't work against Succession and it might not work against The White Lotus this year (that show so far has been the exception that proves the rule) but even if it does, it only counts as one winner.

This is most obvious for The Studio. Five of its 23 nominations are in the Guest Actor in a Comedy category. But if it wins, it will only count as one Emmy. We see the same thing for Supporting Actress for The White Lotus. There are four nominees from the show in that category but if Carrie Coon or Parker Posey wins, it's still just one Emmy overall. Same if Tramell Tillman wins or Walton Goggins win; it's only going to count as one Emmy.

Since I don't want to only seem like I'm picking on the gorillas this is just as true for those shows nominated for fewer awards. I know that if Harrison Ford or Michael Urie win for Shrinking, it's only going to count as one award for that show just as if Sheryl Lee Ralph or Janelle James win, it's only one award for Abbott Elementary.

I've basically left Outstanding Limited Series out of the discussion to this point because it's relatively recent to the addition. But we've seen similar patterns play out in the last decade, though they are fewer. As They See Us had a greater presence at the Emmys then Chernobyl when it came to total nominations but Chernobyl took the grand prize. And in 2021 Wandavision was by far the most nominated Limited Series but ended up losing the grand prize to The Queen's Gambit. And that actually brings me to an incongruity in so much of what I've discussed.

The Penguin is by far the most nominated Limited Series by the Emmys this year. It received an incredible 23 nominations. It is nominated in more categories than any limited series by a good number. But no one is predicting it's going to win Best Limited Series even though Gold Derby is willing to give Best Drama for Severance and Best Comedy for The Studio for that very reason. Instead they're certain the Emmy for Best Limited Series will go to Adolescence which was nominated for thirteen. And four of its nominations are in the Supporting Actor and Actress categories.

It's here I now feel compelled to editorialize a little as to why everyone is sure Adolescence will win Best Limited Series and while everyone expects The Penguin to do well, no one expects it to win Best Drama. One could argue the awards Adolescence has already won from other organizations but I know all too well that there's rarely correlation before the fact. The Penguin was revered even by those people who don't traditionally like comic book adaptations as a masterpiece and the main reason it didn't win the big prizes at the Golden Globes or the Critics Choice Awards was because of Baby Reindeer. And it's not like there isn't precedent for this. In the fall of 2019 Watchmen debuted on HBO, utterly dominated the Emmy nominations that year and was by far the biggest winner on Emmy night. To be fair, the pandemic had affected production but I think it could have won over stronger competition. And it's not like the Emmys is now adamantly against giving prizes to IP the way it would have been even five years ago: The Last of Us is nominated for 16 Emmys. So why does no one think The Penguin has a good chance? I have a suspicion as to why but now is not the time or place. (I'll save that for another article.)

For those who are trying to predict the Emmys based on nominations I understand the impulse. I would, however, advise some quantifiers to make judgments going forward.

First, remember the issue of multiple nominees in each category when making predictions. One might do better to take a look at the number of different categories a show is nominated in rather than the total nominees when predicting its chance.

Second, quality over quantity. One might do well the consider how many nominations a show will have in competition that won't be decided by the Creative Arts awards. It might be fairer to look at the number of nominations a drama, comedy or limited series has in the top prize, all four acting categories and directing and writing. Those are the ones everyone's going to focus on Emmy night. You might do well to consider them do.

And third, never rule out the Emmys capacity to recognize shows that might fall under your radar. This happened a lot last year and I'm not just talking about Hacks. Everyone was certain that Shogun was going to win Outstanding Writing in a Drama but it ended up going to their sneaking favorite Slow Horses. And there was a similar certainty that Baby Reindeer would triumph at Best Director but it went to Ripley a show that was far better – and subtly – directed than so many others.

Here endeth the first lesson. In the next article I'm going to look at Gold Derby itself, explain how it makes its predictions and the flaws that it has in its system.