Tuesday, July 1, 2025

My Predictions (And Hopes) For the 2025 Emmy Nominations, Week 3, Day 2

 

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE

 

Again I'm leaning into the Limited Series part of this though there is a strong chance Aaron Pierre will be among the honored for his work in the film Rebel Ridge. That said there's an overwhelming front runner and I think the question is who the other four nominees will be? I will make my predictions:

 

Colin Farrell, The Penguin

At this point its essentially everyone knows who's going to win in this category because there's only one remaining award left for Farrell to win. He's already taken the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice Award and the SAG Award for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series. He prevailed in the race for the Astras in this category last month. I'm not even sure if Batman showed up at the Emmys he could stop Colin Farrell for prevailing.

Farrell has always been one of the great actors of our time for nearly two decades and he wasn't a stranger to comic books before he took on the role of the Penguin in Matt Reeves's film. But to say he transformed into his work as Oz Cobb doesn't come close to the kind of performance he gave. For all intents and purposes this was a crime drama set in a comic book universe and we got to see one of the most frightening portrayals of a villains origin story that no comic book writer has ever tried. Did anyone consider a villain so warped he killed his brothers as a child and his mother tried to sell him to the mob? Have we ever seen a man trying to be a man of the people who was so clearly willing to climb over the bodies and the wreckage of a city to get what we wanted? Oz made the kind of deals and manipulations that Gus Fring would have admired and was as brutal a killer even at the level beyond Tony Soprano or Al Swearengen. It was one of the horrifying portrayals, capped with one of the most painful deaths of all.

Considering just how much fun it has been to listen to Farrell give so many acceptance speeches over the last few months, he will almost certainly overcome any stigma of the 'comic book' world for prevailing here.

 

Stephen Graham, Adolescence

Despite the issues I have with this series being ranked as one of the greatest limited series it doesn't extend to the actors. I have a slight problem with Stephen Graham being considered a lead in this case, considering he only appears in three of the four episodes and only really has a present of any kind in the series finale. That said, having seen that last episode where Eddie is essentially at the center I can't deny that he deserves the recognition he gets.

As we follow Eddie months after his son has been indicted and is waiting in pre-trial detention, we watch his family still dealing with the fallout of everything that has happened. On his fiftieth birthday he sees that his van has been graffitied, tries to go forward to get paint that will cover up the sin and regale his family with a story of growing up. When they get to the hardware story Eddie is recognized and quickly realizes the horrors have followed him here and he reacts horridly. Then he hears Jamie call and tell him he's decided to plead guilty. We watch as the family deals with the repercussions and Eddie can't understand how he could have raised such a child and what he did wrong all those years. And the image of him in grief at the end is profoundly moving.

Graham will receive other nominations for his work, both in direction and writing but he deserves recognition for his incredibly well done performance.

 

Jake Gyllenhaal, Presumed Innocent

Gyllenhaal was nominated for both Golden Globes and other awards in the early lead up the end of year awards but as other original series have moved up in recognition, his work as Rusty fell somewhat by the wayside. It shouldn't because it was by far one of the great performances in 2024.

Gyllenhaal was stepping into the shoes of Harrison Ford's work in the classic movie and it's remarkable seeing what didn't choose to do. Increasingly we saw a man who was more controlled by his emotions, who constantly underestimated the evidence against him, whose rage never went away and who kept thinking he could defeat Tommy Molto, a man he kept underestimating too many times. That he managed to escape untouched by the law was remarkable – but as the final minutes of the series unfolded, we realized he will never truly escape the guilt of his actions and everything that he has done that led to this horrible tragedy.

Gyllenhaal has always been one of our greatest actors for more than a quarter of a century and in recent years he has become incredibly skilled at both heroic and villainous characters. Even if you had read the novel, his work made you question whether he was wrongfully accused or whether he was lying even to himself. It's the kind of work that more than deserves a nomination and in other years, would get the prize itself.

 

Cooper Koch,  Monsters

Cooper Koch once thought he was borne to play Erik Menendez. Watching him actually do so makes me realize why  he might have thought so. At the start of the series you see a man so mired in the guilt of what he has done that he is considering suicide, whose sexuality is so buried he's not ready for what prison can do, who seems to feel the greatest guilt of what happened. It is he who raised the spectre of the horrendous abuse that befell him to his attorney.

One of the tour de force episodes of last year was 'The Hurt Man' where Erik essentially delivers a monologue in a single take revealing the nature of all of the years of molestation and abuse he and his brother were subject to their entire lives. It is an absolute masterpiece and you come away certain of his innocence – which is why in later episode he astounds by watching him in flashbacks and making you question everything he's told you. When things begin to turn against the brothers – in large part because of his inept performance on the witness stand during the first trial – we start to question how much of this is a façade.

Koch has already been nominated for a Golden Globe and an Astra in this category for his work on this show and deservedly so. In other years he would be a front runner but his performance is more than deserving of recognition.

 

Kevin Kline, Disclaimer

At the end of 2024, it looked like one of the frontrunners for Outstanding Limited Series would be Alfonso Cuaron's adaptation of Disclaimer. This recognition seemed certain to go to its lead actors: Kevin Kline and Cate Blanchett who were both nominated for Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards and SAG Awards. The last few months the buzz has been disappearing: the show was completely shutout by the Astras for nominations and with so many other exceptional limited series fighting it out for nominations, it's not clear that the show will make the cut. The cast, however, is likely to be considered and one of the major forces is one of the greatest actors of all time: Kevin Kline.

As a widower who sends a novel to a celebrated journalist that seems to know the darkest secrets of her entire life, Kline gets to the play the kind of character he rarely got a chance to for much of his career, someone who knows the deepest secrets of her life and is more than willing to share them. Kline has been acting less frequently in the past decade: this is first work in live action in three years and it is one of his most layered and fascinating performances. Rarely known for his dramatic work this one of his best performances and deserving of recognition.

 

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

Nicholas Alexander Chavez, Monsters

It's understandable why so much attention was lavished on Cooper Kock for his work as Erik Menendez. But throughout the entire series I was drawn far more to Chavez for his work as Lyle, which I thought showed a far greater range.

Chavez's Lyle was the source of truly hysterical comedy throughout the season, something because of his delusions about the fame of the brothers, also because he had so much difficulty adjusting to prison life particularly the need for dimes. He was superb as the alpha brother, the man who seemed in charge all the time and who absolutely seemed to driving the narrative. He was infinitely less sympathetic than Koch's work throughout, which meant his story was more believable. But perhaps his greatest skill as a performer came when Lyle took the stand and delivered such an intense monologue that Dominick Dunne would come to their attorney and confessed he was no longer certain of the complicity of the brothers. Not long after that we would learn the depths of the lies that they had told going forward as well the level of the delusion he held even as things turned against them.

If the category had room for six nominees Chavez would make it in a heartbeat. But because there's only room for five there's an excellent chance the Emmys will recognize Koch but ignore Chavez. They should recognize both and I would definitely advocate for him.

 

Tomorrow I will move on to Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series/TV Movie and I might actually have a candidate from a movie for it.

 

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