Friday, July 4, 2025

My Predictions (And Hopes) For the 2025 Emmy Nominations, Conclusion

 

Outstanding Supporting Actress in A Limited Series/TV Movie

We have no clear frontrunner in this race because all of the end of year awards ended up going to Jessica Gunning for Baby Reindeer. So far none of the major awards show for the summer have offered much in the way of clarity. However there is a general consensus given how the nominations of all the various awards shows over the last six month that very likely will give us the frontrunners. Just as a reminder Supporting Actress has always left the most room for surprises in this category over the year both in nominations and occasionally in wins.

Let's wrap this up.

 

Erin Doherty, Adolescence

Doherty is the early favorite in this category because of her memorable one episode stint as Briony, the counselor who goes to visit Jamie in lockup after he has been in prison for six months. Of all the characters on this show she is the only one we get no backstory of besides this episode. All we know is what little she tells both Jamie and the guard over the course of her time there. We know she normally likes her job. We know that she's had several sessions with Jamie and that she's gotten to know him pretty well over that period when it comes to his sandwiches and drinks. We know that Jamie seems to have a rapport with her, but we also see as she begins to gently try and lead the session into territory he doesn't want it to go, it begins to enrage him. We see him explode and her walkout. We see her go back in, try to deal with what was going on between him and Katie. We see him confess some of the deeper secrets of it. Finally she says that she has determined that he is competent to stand trial, understands the charges against him, and that he needs help. We watch as Jamie explodes again and has to be pulled from the room. Finally we see her quietly reveal just how painful this has been to her – and the rest of us.

Because this episode is the most likely to win for writing and because Cooper will almost certainly win for it, Doherty has been the slight favorite for the last few months. But after the results of the Astras she is not as certain to prevail as her co-lead in this episode. But it's pretty she'll be there. In this case, one episode is enough.

 

Betty Gilpin, Three Women

Gilpin might seem to be a longshot in this category but she has received nominations from both the Critics Choice Awards and the Independent Spirit Awards. This is far from the first time I've advocated for Gilpin in this category: I did so for her work in both Gaslit and many believe she should have received recognition for Ms. Davis.

Of the title characters in the series Gilpin's work was by far the most wonderful. Lina, an Indianapolis housewife suffering from rheumatoid arthritis and a lack of love in her marriage, reached out to a high school boyfriend who seemed to have been a lost love. The episode where the two of them reunited and everything that followed during that episode was one of the most exuberant performances in Gilpin's career and a moment of sheer joy. We watched her as she tried to find a way to find love is the illicit affair, tried to find acceptance and then in the series finale, finally realized what was most important to her in her life and what no man could give her. It was the most satisfying emotional performance of the entire series.

Considering how long Gilpin's career has been and how little recognition she has received I really want her to be nominated. I'm fine if she loses, but I want her to get recognized.

 

Lesley Manville, Disclaimer

Like so many great English actresses Lesley Manville has been acting forever and its taken us until only recently for America to catch up with it. One of the recurring performers that Mike Leigh has been using (she goes back nearly to the start of his career) she's been a part  of the English film, theater and TV scene for more than four decades before America figured out who she was.

She had a role in the critically acclaimed Harlots for Hulu, did the narration for the first season of Love Life (she does a lot of that) and then took over for such talents as Vanessa Kirby and Helena Bonham Carter as Margaret in the final two seasons of The Crown. Like them, she was nominated for an Emmy but didn't win, overcome by a brighter star. And after The Crown ended Manville appeared in no less than four series in 2024 as diverse as Moonflower Murders and Grotesquerie. But she is likely to go repeat this year for her work as Nancy, the wife of Kevin Kline's novelist in Disclaimer.

Manville has been ranked among the top five in this category since mid-February and its most likely to be a formidable adversary. At this point they'll probably nominate her just for her work ethic. Speaking of…

 

Cristin Milioti, Black Mirror

Earlier this year Black Mirror did something its anthology rarely does and did a sequel to one of its most revered episodes U.S.S. Callister. And they brought back a performer to repeat one of their most memorable roles. Cristin Milioti returned to play Nannette Cole, free from the hold she'd been under eight years but facing a new and more difficult mission, a role that had earned much respect from various award shows the first time, which some considered her breakthrough performance.

Milioti was nominated for both her roles by both the Critics Choice Super Awards and the Astra TV Awards. And in what was a huge shock she managed to win both awards she was nominated for at the Astras. Now it is rare for the Emmys to nominate the same performer in both female categories in the limited series, but there is precedent for it: Patricia Arquette was nominated for Outstanding Lead Actress for Escape from Dannemora and Supporting Actress in The Act in 2019 – and won in the latter. Considering the momentum there is for Milioti and that this episode will almost certainly be nominated for Best TV Movie, I think there's a chance Milioti could receive recognition to Infinity.

Ruth Negga, Presumed Innocent

One of the biggest changes in the adaptation of this series in terms of character was switching Barbara, Rusty's wife, to the bi-racial Ruth Negga. Kelley and his writers also did much to focus the series on Barbara then in the book: we saw that the Savich's had been going through therapy and we saw the cost of this on Barbara in a way we hadn't before. There were, of course, other critical changes (I won't reveal if you still haven't seen it) but Barbara seemed less icy in the TV series then the film. Television has been a bigger help than film: she was prominent in the crossover series Harlots, did the narration in the first season of Love Life and then of course she took over the role of Princess Margaret from such brilliant performers as Vanessa Kirby and Helena Bonham Carter. She's been working endlessly since on both sides of the pond and now it looks very much like she'll get back to back nominations, but this time for her work as Nancy, the wife of the novelist played by Kevin Kline in Disclaimer.

This would seem to be a deliberate choice by Negga who can play unemotional characters. By making Barbara far more sympathetic as well as much more deeply flawed we got to know her and see the harsher ramification of her husband's actions on the family. Negga, as always, rose to the occasion and has received more than a few award nominations for her work, including an Astra nomination in this category last month.

Of all the cast members of the show Negga is the most likely to receive a nomination for her work as of the odds in Gold Derby. It would be a deserved feather in the cap of what of the great actresses of the 21st century so far.

 

Diedre O'Connell, The Penguin

When we met Oz's Ma living in a house in the Gotham suburbs, the viewers mind went to Livia Soprano. In a sense it was more tragic: Ma Cobb was suffering from a progressive dementia and it seemed she was the biggest weakness Oz still had. The only time we ever saw genuine emotions from him was when he was around her: she was the only person he wanted to protect, the only person who's approval he wanted.

O'Connell was superb throughout the series playing someone who was fundamentally lost in her own mind, occasionally present and proud. Then in the final two episodes she became a pawn in Sofia and Maroni's war against Cobb – and we learned the backstory of Oz's childhood. In the final episode we learned that in fact she knew his darkest secret and had considered a drastic act even in his childhood. However her maternal side won out, setting Oz's path. Then we realized she knew the horrible truth and reached out to destroy what she had created. Her fate was sad for many reasons, not the least of which is that she seems in a hell she can't escape.

O'Connell has already been nominated for a Critics Choice and an Astra Award and has been a favorite in this category for months. It's a certainty she will be with the rest of the cast.

 

Jenny Slate,  Dying For Sex

Jenny Slate has been on the great joys of comedy for nearly two decades, a brilliant hyphenate who seems able to do no wrong, who is brilliant in whatever she does, whether it is in independent film or the small cameos she's given in so many superb TV shows of the years. But her work as Nikki in this series was the biggest stretch of her career to this point.

As the best friend of Molly who becomes her primary caregiver and supports her all the way through her long journey – one that nobody seems to think she can handle and one that clearly overwhelms her much of the time -  Slate demonstrates that, like so many great comic actors over the last decade, she has the ability to tweak her naturally comic persona and create mesmerizing drama. No one but her could give the perfect delivery of lines such as 'masturbation is important', keep writing things down in the endless notebooks to keep track of her treatment, have more than her share of mental breakdowns as things get progressively worse and finally deal with the fact that she is about to lose her best friend forever. Nikki is, after all, the one who is left behind at the end of the story and watching her in the final moments of the series as she finds a way to find hope after tragedy has a level even her greatest admirers (like myself) didn't think she was capable of before I saw the show.

Of all the nominees in this category Slate is my out and out favorite to prevail. I admit there are better performances in this category but I really want to see her up there. I won't lie.

 

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

Chloe Sevigny, Monsters

I had more than a few good choices to advocate for in this category. I considered Sissy Spacek for her superb work as Molly's mother in Dying for Sex and Elizabeth Marvel, an actress I've admired for years, did fine work in Presumed Innocent. But I ended up going with Sevigny for many reasons.

It's not just her superb work as Kitty, the mother who is pictured as both monster and victim through this series. It's that Sevigny has been superb performance on television for nearly two decades and never seems to get picked by the Emmys for anything. She was skunked for her incredible work as Nikki in Big Love (for which she did receive a Golden Globe).She's one of the few great actresses who never got any nominations for American Horror Story. Ignored like so many performers for her work in Bloodline. Shutout for playing the mother of all mothers in Russian Doll. And I advocated for her as C.Z. Guest in last year's Capote Vs. The Swan and it seemed everyone in the cast got nominated but her. Occasionally she'll get recognize for work in Poker Face or The Girl from Plainville but not for the Emmys.

She is well past due a nomination at least. And I think it's time for the mother of all mothers to get recognized.

 

One last thing before I go. I expect the nominees for Best TV Movie to be Rebel Ridge, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Black Mirror: U.S.S. Callister: To Infinity, Mountainhead and The Gorge. I care less about the winners in this category than usual.

That wraps everything up. I'll be back in two weeks to see how well I did. Stay tuned.

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