Bit of a humble brag: I was
incredibly accurate with the bulk of my predictions and in some cases the only
reasons I was inaccurate was because I overestimated how many nomination would
be in each category. All things considered I'm pretty satisfied.
OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES
I got seven of the eight nominees
correct and I knew in my heart that What We Do In The Shadows would be
here instead of Somebody Somewhere. That didn't mean the Emmys didn't
complete ignore it…first things first.
The biggest sign of how quickly The
Bear has fallen is clear. Last year it led all comers with 27 nominations.
This year is has thirteen and is in a distant third. The Studio would
seem to be the out and front runner with 23 nominations but we were in this exact
situation last year and Hacks still managed to win. It's in second this
year with 14.
Shrinking managed 7 and Abbott Elementary
6 but as you'll see below the ones they got will almost all be decided on
Emmy night. Only Murders in the Building dropped to 8 nominations this
year but it may still have room to succeed. Nobody Wants This 'only' got
three but again all of them are major ones. What We Do In the Shadows got
five but aside from Best Comedy none of them were ones that count the same way.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A
COMEDY
My only error was expecting that
there would be six nominations instead of the five that I was told would
happen. This category by far will be the toughest one to pick of the night: Adam
Brody, Seth Rogen, Martin Short and Jeremy Allan White each have one major critics
award to their credit so far and Jason Segel can hardly be underestimated. I will get to The Studio later this
summer to see if I can rank him before I try to predict things.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A
COMEDY
This is where I stumbled and
arguably the biggest surprise of the comedy nominations took place. It didn't
take a genius to know that Quinta Brunson, Ayo Edebiri and Jean Smart would be back
for the second straight year and I was very confident that Kristen Bell would
be here for Nobody Wants This even if she was slightly surprised. (To be
fair, she has been here before. A lot.) But I was certain that Natasha Lyonne
would be back here for the second season of Poker Face and if she wasn't,
Selena Gomez would be.
It never occurred to me Uzo Aduba
would be here for the (now canceled) Netflix series The Residence. I do
realize the show was extremely popular (hence the reason its cancelation stunned
so many) but I didn't think Aduba could prevail against a very stacked lineup.
She has now made Emmy history: the first African-American woman to be nominated
for three different TV shows. I imagine that will keep her warm when Jean Smart
wins her fourth straight Emmy.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A
COMEDY
THEY NOMINATED JEFF HILLER FOR SOMEBODY
SOMEWHERE!.
To be clear he's deserved a
nomination as much as Bridget Everett did but I didn't dare even dream of him
getting recognized by the Emmys. Everett's gotten more than her share of Best
Actress nominations so I thought she had a more likely chance. So obviously I'm
overjoyed. Even more overjoyed than…
THEY NOMINATED HARRISON FORD FOR SHRINKING!
Okay I shouldn't be as excited as
that because everyone said it was a given but everyone thought it was a given
last time too and it just didn't happen. He may very well be the favorite going
into the Emmys and I hope he wins. Now let's more calmly look at the rest and
there are some disappointments.
I expected to see Michael Urie
here, figured Ebon Moss-Bachrach would be here for the third straight year for The
Bear (he has no real chance for a three-peat though) and I expected to see Ike
Barinholtz in this category. It's the other two nominations that trouble me.
I'm not that upset Paul W. Downs
wasn't nominated as an acting, as I said he's nominated in two other categories
that's fine. But nothing for Tyler James Williams this year? I can understand picking Bowen Yang for Saturday
Night Live in a sense; he's been nominated multiple times in this category.
My bigger problem is Colman Domingo getting nominated over Williams. This may be a judgment call I haven't seen The
Four Seasons but I thought Williams was a lock and his being ignored
bothers me. Anyway let's go on.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN
A COMEDY
Okay I got six of seven. Liza Colon-Zayas
for The Bear, Hannah Einbinder for Hacks, Janelle James and
Sheryl Lee Ralph for Abbott Elementary, Jessica Williams for Shrinking
and Catherine O'Hara for The Studio. And much as I wanted to get Meg
Stalter nominated, I'm perfectly fine with Kathryn Hahn being nominated for The
Studio as well. This more than makes up for the misadventures of Agatha
All Along.
GUEST ACTOR AND GUEST ACTRESS IN
A COMEDY
Another sign of how The Bear has
fallen. Last year, they had seven nominees across both of these categories.
This year, they're down to three. Granted both Jamie Lee Curtis and Jon
Bernthal did win last year but it's harder to see them winning again.
I'll obviously be watching The
Studio to see just how good all of the cameos by the guest actors and
actresses are but I was fine with Ron Howard, Martin Scorsese and Bryan
Cranston before. I'm a little perturbed
that Kaitlin Olson isn't present for Hacks (or Abbott Elementary)
but it's balanced by nominations for Julianne Nicholson (you did double dip!)
and standout Robbie Hoffman. Thrilled to see Cynthia Erivo here; at least Poker
Face wasn't ignored.
OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A COMEDY
They found room for Bridget
Everett, after all. I didn't think she'd manage to get a nomination for writing
after all this but still, overjoyed. Also impressed by the presence of The
Rehearsal in this category – and it makes sense to be here for writing.
The usual suspects are here for Abbott
Elementary and Hacks. Everett will double dip with Seth Rogen for The
Studio and Quinta Brunson for Abbott. Another sign that The Bear's
run is over: no nominations in this category at all. The sixth contender: What
we Do In the Shadows.
OUTSTANDING DIRECTOR IN A COMEDY
A very interesting quintet. Ayo
Edebiri double dips for her direction of Napkins and Seth Rogen
officially becomes the TV equivalent of Warren Beatty – he's nominated in four
categories. Lucia Aniello is up for Hacks, a category she's won in once
before. Nathan Fielder is up for The Rehearsal.
But the ultimate industry
veterans is present for James Burrows, for his work directing Mid-Century
Modern. I've long since lost track how many nominations and wins Burrows
has – he must have gotten dozens for Cheers and Frasier alone. Will
the veteran prevail or will it go to a new (ish) face?
NOTABLE EXCLUSION
None to really write home about.
I confess to being surprised Lyonne isn't here after winning at the Astras last
month but there are no overwhelming surprises. Along with Andor I'll be
watching The Studio to give a complete report on how well it ranks. That
said, I'm still pretty sure Hacks will repeat – after all, there are a
lot of duplicates for The Studio there aren't for the latter.
Tomorrow I will wrap things up
with my reactions to the nominations in the Outstanding Limited Series category
– and we can strike TV Movie entirely from that discussion. It actually turned
out better than I dared hope.
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