Thursday, July 3, 2025

My Predictions (And Hopes) For the 2025 Emmy Nominations, Week 3, Day 4

 

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series/TV Movie

I have seen to this point six of the likely frontrunners for nominations in this category and think that all of them have done superb work this year. The seventh I acknowledge is something of a long shot but I thought it was a master class. Here are my choices.

 

Javier Bardem, Monsters

During the end of year awards Javier Bardem was a frontrunner in many of the Supporting Actor awards nominated in every major award group. He didn't win for any of them but having seen his work as Jose Menedez I completely understand why.

It is a tribute to Ryan Murphy that many of his stories about crimes pay attention to the victims as much as the killers and Bardem's work as Jose was by far one of the most layered. Seeing him in flashbacks through the eyes of Erik and Lyle we were inclined to believe that he was the worst sort of father, a bully and cruel man even before we learned of the sexual abuse he forced upon his children. But then in the incredible episode 'Don't Dream It's Over', we learned the backstory of both him and Kitt's lives and it painted a very different picture of Jose. We saw a father who really did want the best for his children, a man who was likely a closeted homosexual who could never accept who he was, a husband and father trying desperately to fix the relationships he made. And in one of the final scenes we realized that the molestation he might have been guilty of didn't begin with him – and in fact may have gone further back. It wasn't an excuse, but it was an explanation. When we saw the final flashback of him prior to the murders we saw someone who was as much a victim as the brothers themselves.

Bardem has been one of the great actors of the 21st century, a master in everything he does. His work as Jose Menedez is another feather in his cap.

 

Owen Cooper, Adolescence

Right now the biggest obstacle standing in the way of Owen Cooper prevailing at the Emmys is his age: he is only fifteen years old. And astonishingly this is the first role he's ever played on screen of any kind. But  whatever issues I had with Adolescence as a work of television they absolutely do not extend to Cooper who's work in Episode 3 was one of the great masterpieces I've seen of television.

As of the episode Jamie has been in lockup for months and is being held in pre-trial detention. The episode is essentially a two person job (and I'll deal with her eventually don't worry) as he is undergoing court-mandated therapy. We spend much of the episode just seeing Jamie as a little boy, still having trouble believing what he has done. Then as his therapist begins to work on him, we see him begin to unravel. We see the rage that allowed to him act slowly come out of the surface. And then he explodes. We watch him explain why he began to feel fixated on the girl in his year as a problem. We see the dark aspects of him beneath the surface and then as the therapist explains that this is their final session and why she's here we see yet again that he is just a little boy. It's a frightening and deep performance to watch and that it is his acting debut is astonishing.

Cooper has already won a few awards for his work: the Gotham TV award and the Astra Award for Supporting Actor in a Limited Series. The only thing standing against him is his age; previously the youngest winners for Emmys so far this century have been Zendaya and Julia Garner and  both were in their twenties when they won their first Emmys. But Cooper is going to be a force for awhile and we all know it.

Rob Delaney, Dying for Sex

Rob Delaney had been a part of great television for a while. He was the male lead in the superb comedy series Catastrophe for four seasons. He gave a superb performance in the short lived Showtime TV series The Man Who Fell to Earth as an obsessed heir to a technological fortune. He recently acme to attention for his work in the new Apple TV series Bad Monkey as Christopher. But it is his hysterical work as Neighbor Guy on Dying For Sex that will certainly land him an Emmy nomination.

As a tall, loud and gangly man who lives next to Molly who becomes the ultimate receptacle for her sexual fantasies, there is a sweetness to his humor that is engaging. He is a man willing to bare his soul (and everything else) to Molly. He accepts her illness with a dignity that is wonderful. He tries to engage her emotionally as much as sexually, even after being kicked in the penis. And the scene where the two of them make love in the penultimate episode after which he disappears from her life forever is both funny and moving.

Delaney has gotten more press for his work here than the last twenty years of his career and a nomination is all but certain.

 

Rhenzy Feliz, The Penguin

Rhenzy Feliz was only twenty seven when he took the role of Victor but he'd already been acting for several years before that. He appeared in the second season of Casual, played Alex Wilder in Runaways and even had a small role in last year's critically acclaimed Penelope. But none of that could have prepared you for his work in The Penguin.

Victor is one of the victims of the events in The Batman that destroy his home and kill his family. Reduced to stealing Oz nearly kills him  but ends up enlisting him in his battle to take over Gotham. He leans into the myth of Oz from the start and that is a tragedy. He has an opportunity to escape Gotham and doesn't take it. He follows him into the world of bloodshed and violence, becomes a killer and the righthand man. In the series finale he is the one who talks Oz back into fighting at his lowest moment. And then just as it seems he's a part of something; Oz decides that having him around is a weakness and kills him off with some remorse but no second thoughts. Victor is the great tragedy of The Penguin and shows us more than anything that the man we've been subconsciously rooting for all season is utterly irredeemable.

Feliz has been rising in contention for this award over the last several weeks and while he is unlikely to win, this will no doubt make him the superstar he always was.

Dennis Quaid, Happy Face

Dennis Quaid has been one of the most underrated actors in Hollywood for a career spanning over forty years and the overwhelming number of his roles have been that of an affable everyman type. So it's pretty clear that he is cast much against type as Keith Jesperson, the 'Happy Face Killer' whose power over so many is unmatched even after decades in prison, who has the possibility to have a perverse hold on his daughter decades after she walked away from him.

Quaid is quietly terrifying without trying to be overtly evil in much of his work and there's a disconnect between his horrific nature in every scene and the reason that so many people are devoted to him. There's just enough openness in his nature that you can see why his granddaughter might want to connect with him, even though we know how truly evil he is in every single scene. And the fact that he is a manipulator of events even behind the cells of a maximum security prison hangs over the show even though he has less screen time then you might expect. You know what a monster he is even when he tries to be affable.

Of all the selections I've given here Quaid is the least likely to receive a nomination, mainly because Happy Face was on Paramount Plus a streaming service that has basically been ignored by the Emmys and indeed most awards in general. But it is a performance that has a hold over you long after it's over and if that's not award worthy I don't know what is.

 

Peter Sarsgaard, Presumed Innocent

Peter Sarsgaard has quietly been one of the great actors of the 21st century, rarely getting credit for the masterful performances that he has given in the world of independent film. He's been a presence in some of the better limited series over the past decade, such as The Looming Tower and deservedly getting recognized for his work in Dopesick for an Emmy nomination. But it's safe to say little could prepare you for his work as Tommy Molto, a character that best suits the descriptor 'the man you love to hate' in 2024.

Tommy Molto was such a contradiction that even his mentor said he had both a narcissus complex and an inferiority complex and it was understandable than we spent the first half of the series utterly loathing  him every moment he was on the screen. It was because he had such a loathsome personality than Rusty completely underestimated him – until he gave his opening statement for the prosecution and even he realized how much trouble he was in. From that point on we realized just how formidable an adversary Tommy Molto was in the courtroom, merciless in prosecution and delivering a cross examination of Rusty so brilliant that for the first time we thought Rusty was screwed. Tommy never quite became sympathetic during the series but as events progressed you did see he has depths that the people in Cook County underestimated and of all the characters, you got the feeling at the end he might be able to move on the most from what happened.

Sarsgaard has been a dark horse favorite for an Emmy nomination almost since Presumed Innocent came out. If he's not nominated I will be very disappointed.

 

Ashley Walters, Adolescence

Of all the actors on Adolescence I think the most overlooked performance was Ashley Walters work as DI Bascombe. It's understandable, considering his performance is far less showy or has chance for dramatic then the rest of the cast. But looking back on it, I think it was the best overall performance of the entire series because of all the characters he was the one with a sense of justice.

As we watch him in the opening as he leads the raid on the Miller household, we follow him through every process of the arrest of Jamie, the working of getting the evidence, his defense attorney and finally telling both Jamie and his father that they have proof of what he did. Then in the second episode we spend much of our time watching Bascombe as he leads the search for information in the school of both Jamie, the victim – and his own son. We watch as he sees not just the horrible aftermath, but how dreadful the educational system is for both teachers and students and how he doesn't understand what happened. And critically we see him talk to his son who explains to him the significance of the emojis in the texts, the nature of why the murder happened and getting the people responsible. Bascombe's story ends after the second episode – his job's done, after all – and as a result we get the sense that he is the only person who has a possibility to both move on and maybe even learn from his own problems. His arc was the only positive one in the show. And I really do think that's worth a nomination.

Walters was nominated by the Astras for Supporting Actor in A Limited Series, though he did lose to Cooper. I think he deserves to be nominated and it's likely he will.

 

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

Nathan Lane, Monsters

It's taken a while but TV has finally started to give Nathan Lane the recognition he deserves. In 2022 he won his first Emmy for his guest appearance in Only Murders in the Building. His work in The Gilded Age has received immense acclaim and while he has yet to be nominated for it, I'm sure he will. Earlier this year he starred in the critically acclaimed Hulu comedy Mid-Century Modern which has already received award nominations for the Astras. I would like to think that might be enough to earn him a nomination for his subtle, nuanced work – something you don't normally associate with Lane – as Dominick Dunne in Monsters.

Dunne's work as a columnist for Vanity Fair has him as the voice of justice when the Menedez case becomes prominent. He is the antagonist to Leslie Grossman, mainly because it was her defense that allowed his daughter's killer to walk free. He has hated her from afar ever since and takes the position that she is a monster. But as the series progresses we see that he's more clear-headed about the case than Grossman is and sees the flaws she doesn't. He has questions about their guilt after watching Erik testify but at the end of the series, he's convinced justice will prevail. He's right on that, but it doesn't bring him the satisfaction he hoped and we see his loss at the end.

I don't know what Lane's odds are at this point in the nomination process but I'd love to see him up there again. Besides, he was robbed last year for his work on The Gilded Age and I want to see the redress.

 

Tomorrow I wrap everything up with Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series/TV Movie and maybe some ephemera.

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