Decision 2026 Tracking the Justice Democrats, Part 2:The Justice Democrats Gained Two Members In New York Last Night - And It Had Nothing to Do With The Squad

 

 

When Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez managed to upset Dan Crowley in the 2018 primaries it appeared to be the symbol of the true power of the Justice Democrats.

What no one realized then or eight years later that Ocasio-Cortez is the success story of a movement that has, by any normal standard, been a complete failure. And the clearest way to illustrate this is to look at the movement's track record in New York State, particularly in the aftermath of yesterday's primaries.

In 2018 Ocasio Cortez was one of five Justice Democrats in the house and Cynthia Nixon  running for the governor's to try and primary incumbent Democrats. I've written about Nixon multiple times so let's deal with Congress.

Michael Devito ran in the 11^th district, Jeff Beals in the 18^th, Patrick Nelson in the 21^st and Ian Golden the 23^rd. Devito would get less then 20 percent of the vote, Beals and Golden each got around 13 percent and Nelson got little more then 9 percent. In the shadow of AOC's upset this was swept under the rug but in one of the bluest states in America it should have been a sign of how limited their appeal was.

The following year Jamaal Bowman managed to successfully defeat 16 term incumbent Eliot Engel in the New York 16^th District, mainly because he was endorsed by the Working Families Party. AOC endorsed him but its worth noting so did much of the progressive establishment as well as the New York Times. Bowman and Cori Bush were the only two new Justice Democrats to win election in the 2020 election; five other Justice Democrats would fail to advance in the House and Betsy Sweet lost her attempt to win the Maine Senate race.

On April 14th Rana Abdelhamid had announced she was going to tun for the New York 12^th district against incumbent Carol Maloney. During her campaign Abdelhamid criticized Maloney for wearing a burqa in a speech to illustrate the oppression of women in Afghanistan. According to Abdelhamid, oppression of Afghan women was 'an Islamophobic narrative meant to justify American wars."

However before the primary she withdrew after new boundary maps were drawn. In a statement she chose to argue that her district 'no longer includes my community' and were reminiscent of an ongoing legacy of non-inclusive gerrymandering. All of this strikes me as bluster for someone who had no interest of getting in a fight she knew she couldn't win, which is how the Justice Democrats picks its battles in the first place.

(On a side note in 2026 Abdelhamid attempted to run for Zohran Mamdani's former district after he became mayor. While she's a member of the DSA the organization chose to endorse the co-chair Diana Moreno. Abdehamid carried on running as a third party candidate. She got 17 percent of the vote to Moreno's 74 percent.)

Bowman was challenged in the 16^th after redistricting added Westchester county and the Bronx to his district. Bowman narrowly survived his challenge winning 54 percent to Vedat Gashi's 45 percent. This should have been a warning that the Justice Democrats had to be weary in New York. They ignored it.

Two years later as I spent much of 2024 writing Jamal Bowman became the first Justice Democrat to lose reelection when George Latimer overwhelmingly defeated him in his primary despite the efforts of Ocasio-Cortez and other Justice Democrats stumping for them. His defeat should have been the clearest sign of how little cache AOC and the Justice Democrats really had even among the faithful. While the Squad doesn't seem to have gotten the message Bowman did; he's not trying to win his old seat back this cycle.

AOC did endorse Mamdani for Mayor last year but I'm relatively sure it was symbolic. If the most prominent Democratic Socialist from New York City didn't endorse another Democratic Socialist from New York City it would be a public sign there wasn't much warmth in collectivism as they thought. More importantly it meant Mamdani's role in New York politics was going to be more important than AOC's – and going into the New York primaries they needed it.

Going into Tuesday's primary the Justice Democrats were attempting to run two new Democrats.  Claire Valdez, another Democratic Socialist who was elected to the 37^th district in 2025 would attempt to run for New York 7^th to succeed Nydia Velasquez. She would be challenging Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso and Queens Councilwoman Julie Won. In the 13^th Darializa Avila Chevalier would be running to challenge Adriano Espaillat, who has represented the district since 2017 and is the chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.

Valdez and her chief competitor Antonio Reynoso agreed on everything: abolishing ICE, taxing the rich, Medicare for All and the War in Gaza. And considering Reynoso had early on endorsed Mamdani for Mayone one would have thought he would pick his colleague. Instead he chose Valdez who was, like him a fellow Democratic socialist.

This led to them fighting over Trump. Reynoso attacked Mamdani for visiting the White House of a man they should, in his words, 'impeach for war crimes. Rather than deal with the attack Mamdani chose to make it about his efforts to free a Columbia Student. It became a war between Renyoso's Working Family Progressives and the Democratic Socialist wing. Reynoso's record was far better than Valdez: he was a Borough President who had pushed through the Right to Know act, worked for Unions and organized for labor. The only difference was Valdez had Mamdani's endorsement and turned out to be more than enough

Chevalier came under fire for deleted social media posts in which she bashed mainstream Democrats, questioned the view Israel had the right to exist and criticized Joe Biden leading up to the 2020 election.

Espaillat its worth noting is one of the most progressive members of Congress, who has introduced bills to abolish the Death Penalty. He is a strong advocated for affordable housing and economic development, immigrant rights and the dream act, voted against passage of the Fiscal Responsibility Act. He has also supported the Israel Anti-Boycott Act and released a statement condemning Netanyahu's decision to deny Squad members Tlaib and Omar entry to Israel. The only thing he's done that's remotely pro-Israel was a vote to provide them with support following the October 7^th attacks.

Chevalier is one of the most prominent anti-Gaza protestors who has been one of Mamdani's lead organizers so it was clear that this race would be a test of his endorsement powers as well as the Justice Democrats reach. Espaillat thought that Mamdani had his word to back him. Instead Mamdani chose to elevate Chevalier who like him was as vehement a critic on Israel as him.

This infuriated Hakeem Jeffries and Latino leaders. Considering that Chevalier and Valdez refused to commit to back him for House leader he is justifiably afraid that their victories could be turned into cudgels by Republicans in swing districts.

"Every Democrat in a competitive race will have to answer for our most extreme voices," said Howard Wolfson. "And it will make the party as a whole seem extreme and out of touch.

The results do seem to have worked in the short term: Valdez won her primary overwhelmingly and Chevalier narrowly defeated Espaillat. But yet again it demonstrates the inability of far left candidates like Mamdani to take anything but the immediate view. Already there are signs this has done much to hurt Mamdani's reputation at a state level. Many of the people who supported him early such as Velasquez are infuriated by how Mamdani seems more interested in putting it early supporters who are unknown in politics that may hurt the party. One can't escape the fact that Mamdani seems determined to remake the Democratic Party in New York in his image – much as how the President did the same for Republicans who he felt were loyal to him. The result managed to get rid of many valuable legislators in Congress in favor of sycophants to him.

In Mamdani's case it seems the definition of pennywise gains in favor of pound foolish decisions state wide. While Chevalier and Valdez are certain to gain their seats there is an excellent chance leadership of the House may come down to four swing districts in New York; the 3^rd, 4^th, and 19^th held by Democrats Tom Suozzi, Laura Gillen and Josh Riley respectively and the New York 17^th which is held by Michael Lawler, a Republican. It's certain the RNC in New York will attempt to tie the three incumbent Democrats to Mamdani and his Democratic socialists all of whom won their districts by margins of anywhere from two to three percent. Gillen and Suozzi went out of their way not to endorse Mamdani in his mayoral campaign and his campaigning for them will only hurt them in purple Long Island.

Like everything else the democratic socialists have done during the last decade whatever minor gains they make in Congress seems more determined to move fast and break things rather then to govern. Mamdani may have sent 'a message' to the Democrats in Congress but it's not one that they wanted and it very well may end up helping the GOP in the immediate term and perhaps even more long-term. To be sure he will have allies in Congress going into the next session but that's meaningless unless the Democrats gain the majority next year and will likely do less for anybody until at least 2028 – by which point Mamdani will have to run for reelection on his record as Mayor. And electing two Justice Democrats to New York from Congress may help him in the short term but its going to make the national party – which still is inclined to keep him at arms' length knowing just how controversial he is anywhere that isn't New York City – even less inclined to like him for the next three years.

As for Velasquez and Dalia Chevalier while they may be new members of the Justice Democrats come to fall all this proves is that Mamdani is the kingmaker in New York rather than AOC. And since Mamdani is not a member of the Justice Democrats it will be seen far more as a victory for him rather then the Squad. And it lays bare yet again the weaknesses of the Justice Democrats at a national level: they can only win in the bluest districts in the bluest states and only with someone who has their vision in a city or a state level. It's far more likely when the next Congress is confirmed they will listen more to Mamdani's agenda then anything AOC says or does.

And this is clear because in addition to Justice Democrats Mamdani also endorsed Brad Lander. Lander has been a progressive activist who served as comptroller under the previous Mayor Eric Adams. He finished third in the Democratic primary and chose to cross endorse and campaign with Mamdani. While Lander has been active in the city council for more than a decade, particularly legislation involving worker's rights he actually left the Democratic Socialists after October 7^th, he was never at any time considered part of the Justice Democrats nor did he seek their endorsement during his campaign despite being aligned with them on a majority of issues. The fact that Lander won with Mamdani's endorsement but not the Justice Democrats shows that his endorsement means more than AOC's did in the state.

After the New York primary the Justice Democrats may have gained two new members but the press isn't going to see it that way.  It will be seen as a victory for Mamdani and the power he has as kingmaker in New York. But the Justice Democrats don't have anyone like him anywhere else in the country and are highly unlikely to have anyone to do the same for them in California or Michigan.

And while the media will have its attention here, the left will want to highlight it and the Republicans will want to label the victories in New York as symbolic of the new Democratic Party there were three other states that held primaries for Congress yesterday as well and the left, never mind the Justice Democrats, suffered resounding defeats.

Maryland, a state even more solidly Democratic then New York could ever hope to be, has proven so unfriendly to the Justice Democrats that they haven't fielded a candidate there since their initial run. In the race to replace Steny Hoyer, there were the same complaints of pro-Israel money that were considered anchors on New York Democrats. Chris Van Hollen, the major head of progressivism in the Senator chose not to endorsed and argued the seat was being bought. It did nothing to stop Adrian Boafo, Hoyer's preferred successor, from easily winning the primary in a crowded field. Furthermore the President of the Maryland Senate, who thwarted a redistricting attempt made by Governor Wes Moore was challenged for the first time in twelve years. He won easily as well.

In Utah after maps were redrawn to create a Democratic district Ben McAdams who managed to defeat Mia Love during the blue wave of 2018 but lost reelection the following cycle, easily won the Democratic nomination over a group of progressive challengers including Nate Blouin. As opposed to the centrist Democrat tact that McAdams took Blouin argued for a more progressive approach and had the endorsement of Justice Democrats Pramila Jayapal and Greg Casar. McAdams got nearly 60 percent of the vote, more than 40 percent more than Blouin.

And even in New York State Caitlin Conley managed to win the Democratic primary in the 17^th district against more progressive candidates such as Effie Philips-Staley whose campaign website said 'she dedicated her life to social justice and said this moment demands transformational change… not politics as usual that serves corporations and the ultra-rich. She finished a distant third with 15 percent of the vote, nearly 35 percent less than Conley did in what will be a highly competitive race against Mike Lawler for control of the House.

Looking back on Tuesday's results it could stand for the Justice Democrats in a microcosm. On what will likely be their biggest gains nationwide in 2026 the credit will nevertheless go to someone else and the blame will still land on them for whatever happens to the party nationwide.