Tuesday, June 23, 2026

My Predictions (And Hopes) For the 2026 Emmy Nominations, Week 2, Part 2: OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA

 

 

It is all but a foregone conclusion who will be the winner in this category in 2026. Less so is who the other nominees will be. With Adam Scott, Pedro Pascal and Diego Luna all for various reasons ineligible for Best Actor there are at least two very clear vacancies among the five nominations allowed in this category.  Three are certain to be filled – deservedly – from the nominees from last year. Who will get the final two? Here are my picks.

 

Sterling K. Brown, Paradise

In Season 1 Xavier Collins was the one man in Paradise determined to get to the truth in what was thought to be the last safe place on Earth after 'The Day'. At the end of the season he flew out to see what was left to find his wife.

He spent most of Season 2 traveling the wreckage of America, first being rescued by one of the last survivors in Graceland (Shaleigh Woodley), then following her until she ended up dying in labor. Eventually he did find his wife and learned that things were not the same for her as they were for him. He ended up returning to the Bunker to rescue his family from a cataclysm within and invaders without. And by the season finale it became clear that he might be the salvation of mankind in a way that is not clear yet – but the fact its Xavier may be the clearly sign of hope.

Sterling K. Brown, along with Paradise showrunner Dan Fogler, created one of the most iconic characters of the last decade in Randall Pearson on This Is Us a role that won Brown his second Emmy. Now the two have created another iconic character on a show that seems destined to be another classic in television history. In the last decade Brown has become an Emmy regular across no less than five series in every category an actor can be nominated in and his presence is a sign of great television. Brown will win in this category for the final season but we all know he's going to be nominated for the second straight year and it has nothing to do with institutional laziness. He and this show are just that good.

 

Billy Magnussen, The Audacity

Despite the initially mixed reviews for The Audacity Billy Magnussen received near universal praise for his work as Duncan, the dysfunctional Silicon Valley mogul at the center of the action. I understand why almost from the moment I watched this episode.

So many of the best characters in TV dramas have had uncharted depths. Duncan is unique at being someone who is entirely surface, who isn't at smart as he believes, who time and again reads every single cue, no matter how subtly or heavily delivered completely wrong and who might not even have an original idea in his head. He spends the entire season using the tech of someone he doesn't even know, spying on everyone around him who he's certain is plotting against him (and only a few of them really are) is constantly outwitted by people who are far more clever then him and who have slightly more self-awareness and seems determined at every step of the way to do anything to be hated by his peers all to take the spotlight momentarily. By the end of the season his determination to be at the spotlight leads him to learn a horrible truth about his family and even then he's determined to keep moving forward, trying to outrun everything he is just to stay ahead.

Magnussen is hysterical portrayal every level of Duncan, someone who seems to love setting himself on fire if that means people are paying attention to him for a moment. At a certain level he knows everything he does will lead to destroy him down the road but all he cares about is momentary satisfaction and we know that's going to destroy him. He sets out to make Duncan unlikable at every level so its kind of shocking that by the season finale we feel some form of sympathy for him even as he continues to destroy everything around him.

Magnussen has received some pre-awards discussion most notably an Astra for Best Actor in a drama. With only four of the nominations in this category locked down for certain Magnussen could be the wild card in this race and I'm willing to gamble on him over some more likely contenders.

 

Gary Oldman, Slow Horses

Gary Oldman had nothing to prove when he took on the role of Jackson Lamb back in 2022. So he's spent five seasons playing one of the most beloved characters in TV history as well as one of the most iconic characters in literature. And he does both with the complete attitude of a man who absolutely gives no F's about anybody or anything, not his job at the worst place in Slough House or the agents who work under him. Not Diana Taverner who at the end of the season may be in the best position to take him down for good. Not the terrorists who are engaged in the biggest threat to London and the UK yet so far.  Not even about how much he stinks, his halitosis or how he breaks wind on a regular basis.

Jackson Lamb isn't an antihero or a hero or really anything the TV viewer like myself has gotten used to in thirty years. He's clearly smarter then he looks, clearly effective at his job, clearly an efficient agent and killer. But Oldman is superb because every line out of his mouth – his entire posture – is of a man who doesn't seem to care about anybody or anything. He seems to care about his own well-being but considering how every season he seems to sigh reluctantly and go: "I have to save these idiots"  - and by extension the country – you can't tell how much of this is an act. We know he's one of the legends at MI-5 and it may be a front but every time he says anything it seems designed to isolate everybody including himself. That's why we have so much fun watching Slow Horses in a way we really don't for so many other series.  Jackson Lamb's trench coat may be plot armor but he barely seems to care whether that gets messed up.

Someday I want Oldman to win for playing Jackson Lamb. Not just because he deserves it but because I want him to accept his as Jackson Lamb. Profanely, messily and like everything else with no reserve: "You tossers are lucky I was busy dying to receive this" would be a good start.

 

Mark Ruffalo, Task

Just as with Hannah Einbinder for Hacks Mark Ruffalo's work as an actor is where I continue to separate the artist from the art. I find him even more pedantic and self-aggrandizing as a proselytizer for various causes but he remains one of our greater actors and that is particularly true for his work as Tom Brandis.

I signaled out Ruffalo's work as Tom as a step forward for leads in HBO dramas. Unlike basically every single lead of a drama since Tony Soprano, Tom Brandis is broken but fundamentally a good man. He has undergone horrible losses before the show even begins: his wife is dead at the hands of his son, his family is shattered, he drinks himself to sleep every night. Worst of all, he's lost his faith in God which was central to who he was before he joined the FBI. He's the last man who should be leading a task force into a string of robberies in Philadelphia and he knows it – and that's before he realizes that his force has been compromised.

Every step of the way Ruffalo is extraordinary as Tom, someone who knows the words to the job he can do but barely can dance to it. He manages to keep moving forward trying to find out who is responsible for the abduction of a small child along with everything else. Eventually he finds himself at gunpoint with the man responsible and in a long scene in which he believes he is going to die he ends up sharing almost everything about himself. He survives but that leads to a confrontation on a bridge that leads to multiple deaths but nevertheless he keeps going. And through his persisted nature he manages to solve the crimes, find out who the leak – and perhaps most astonishingly find peace within himself. How many dramas have you watched where the protagonist is at a better place then he was emotionally then at the start of the season?

In another year Ruffalo would be the frontrunner in this category for his incredible work. But he's up against another complicated broken man trying to do go and he has little chance of prevailing. Still we will see him back in the ranks again and despite the complicated feelings I have to the performer, I'm overjoyed to see that he hasn't lost a step as an actor.

 

Noah Wyle, The Pitt

The first sign we know that Dr. Robby isn't in good shape is when he rides to his job on a motorcycle and isn't wearing a helmet. It's the day before he goes on sabbatical and he is not in a good mood.  It's ten months since we first met him and while everyone is clearly dealing with their own shit, Robby is clearly not dealing with it at all.

In each case he seems a little more short-tempered with every attending, nurse and even some of the people replacing him. He refuses to even talk with Dr. Langdon, back from his first day after ten months in rehab. He can't offer encouraging words to those who need it and as everyone starts to feel the baggage of the past several months catch up with them, he has nothing but increasing hostility towards all of them, demanding they suck it up. And all through the day there are more discouraging signs: we learn he's fired two of his previous therapists in six months. He seems about to break up with a woman he's been seeing for the last few months. He keeps calling his riding buddy to get himself checked out at the ER. And when he finally shows up it becomes clear the persistent cough he has is far worse than it looked.

Robby manages to function as the crises of each hour continue to build up and throughout the day he holds it together. It's only in the final hours that we learn the significance of his sabbatical and just what he may be planning. And in that final hour he engages in a conversation with the one man who knows what he's thinking of and who makes it very clear he doesn't want him to do it. I've never been more grateful to know that Wyle is coming back for a third season before the show concluded: by the time it ended, I think we were are all scared for him.

It's looking going in that Noah Wyle may become the first actor to win back-to-back Emmys since Bryan Cranston managed his three-peat between 2008-2010. As with Cranston I can think of no better actor to be honored considering there such a long period when it seemed Wyle couldn't buy an Emmy.  His work makes The Pitt one of the greatest shows on TV and I'm glad that Wyle is still doing the work that made viewers like me fall in love with him thirty years ago.

 

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

Ramon Rodriguez, Will Trent

Those of you who've read me know how strongly I feel about this show and the cast. It was just as good in Season 4 as its always been but at this point I've come to accept the cold reality of how the Emmys just seem unwilling to acknowledge it. That doesn't change the fact that for the fourth straight season Ramon Rodriguez was extraordinary in the title role – and then some.

At the start of the season he had to deal with the fact that not only was his biological father back in his life but that James Ulster was out of prison. When Ulster ended up dead Will spent the season struggling with his demons in a way he never had before. He began to wonder just how much of who he was had to do with Ulster in him and as the season progressed things only worsened: first when his Uncle was abducted by the psychotic daughter of Ulster, then as he spent the season trying to unravel the ring of who took her and then when it came to a head with the death of Amanda Wagner at her hands. By the end of the season Will was more broken then he'd ever been and Rodriguez showed that pain at every level. And then somehow, at the end of the season, Will found a way to come back for it when tragedy struck Angie. One doesn't know the future of Will and Angie's relationship or the series in general but we still feel better knowing Will is out there.

I know in my heart the Emmys isn't going to acknowledge the work Rodriguez does but it should and as long as the show's on the air I'm going to keep pushing for it and him.

 

Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama – and the Euphoria of it all.

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