Graham Platner Has No Chance of Winning in Maine. Here's Why, What Needs to Happen And Why All of this Only Helps Susan Collins

 

A month ago after Ada Mills dropped out of the Democratic primary in Maine I made it crystal clear that Platner was absolutely the best thing to happen for Susan Collins chances for reelection. I knew that his social media history as well as his own record with his campaign staff had basically written the opposition research for the Republicans before he'd officially become the Democratic nominee.

I didn't need to know any more about Platner to know how toxic he was going to be and the last two weeks have, if anything, made it clearer just how many self-inflicting wounds he's giving himself and the Democrats.

Time Magazine in a front page article on him published a story that while it sung his praises acknowledged a sexting scandal that had already come to light. By the time that issue had hit the newsstands The New York Times – which had written many favorable articles about him in the months prior to the primary – published an in-depth story of no less then three former girlfriends who have claimed that they were abused by him.  The Atlantic has published multiple articles over the last week including one titled 'Maine Has A Graham Platner Problem'. And the day before the primary The Washington Post ran an op-ed by Platner's former campaign manager making it clear just how bad a choice he was for the Senate.

I need to emphasize that none of these publications could remotely be described as part of the conservative media. The New York Post and The Wall Street Journal have published similar articles pointing out Platner's flaws but they all basically came within days of the earlier publications, none of which could be mistaken as close to pro-Trump.  These are all the bastions of the so-called liberal media and they couldn't make it clearer that Platner is not the kind of candidate the Democrats should endorse.

And as I've mentioned the party is increasingly becoming split on what to do about him. The progressive wing – Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders the most prominent members – have stood by him and have continued to stand by their endorsements. They have no choice because they're the ones who have done everything to back him in the first place and the progressives have long made it clear they'd rather lose elections with one of their own then win with a moderate. This is not the case for many other members of the coalition, including critically women's groups who rescinded their endorsement on Thursday.

And the thing this is all before Platner became the nominee. It is one thing to win the Democratic primary in Maine. But now Platner has go into the general election and try to defeat Susan Collins who has won reelection four times and ran ahead of Trump in Maine in the 2020 election. Collins managed to get over 417,000 votes in 2020. Platner is going to need more than that to beat her in the general.  This was going to be a tough fight with a moderate candidate: for a man who already has the kind of baggage going into it then compares to Ken Paxton, its as if he's purposely putting sandbags on before an uphill run.

Right now the Democrats biggest argument is that it is more important to get Susan Collins out of the Senate, even with a horribly flawed Democrat candidate like Platner. This is essentially the same argument that so many Republicans who were frustrated with Trump during his first term were: the other side is much worse. That never struck me as a powerful argument for Republican voters; to use it in terms of a moderate Republican in Maine – who Trump has not officially even endorsed during this cycle -  strikes me by far as the worst kind of hyperbole.

It doesn't help matters that so much of the chatter trying to defend Platner seems to be based on the idea that he's trying to do better and that his major defense has been that he has suffered from PTSD when he made the majority of his 'mistakes'.  Basically the defense seems to be he's not guilty by reason of mental defect. That barely flies in defending serial killers; it's not a plus for someone you want to be in the U.S. Senate.

And to be clear this election was a mandate on whether Susan Collins deserved to win reelection. Now it's a mandate on whether Platner is fit to serve in the Senate at all. If you think the establishment is trying to undermine Platner because 'they're scared of him' (a common online defense of any progressive) then wait until the Republicans start in on him. As I've said multiple times and will keep emphasize, the last thing you want to hand the GOP in any battle is the moral high ground.

 Collins, on her worst day, was never a MAGA extremist; the most damning indictment the left has been able to throw against her is that she has endorsed Trump's agenda without blinking. To be very clear so has every Republican in Congress at this point, something that the Democrats have made very clear in every election for the past decade. The problem is, particularly in the Senate, it has rarely been the kind of dealbreaker for most voters that the left believes it should be. If anything, it keeps helping Lindsay Graham and Ted Cruz and Rick Scott winning elections. Collins is not unique in that regard and honestly she's much milder then all of the Senators when it comes to their voting record and overall demeanor. Lauren Boebert and Nancy Mace she is not.

It was never going to be enough to just say Collins was in favor of Trump to beat her in Maine. It wasn't in 2020 and there was no real reason to assume it would be that simple this time around.  But the left did what it does so many times before; it made the assumption that a loud, left-wing candidate would be able to win over the masses in a general election. As always they mistook popularity in the Democratic primary for how it would play in the general election. That has never worked for the Democrats before in the last decade: we saw how badly it failed Jaime Harrison against Lindsey Graham in 2020 and Sara Gideon who ran against Collins that year was far milder. Both lost in what amounted to landslides in two of the most expensive Senate races in the cycle that year.

The other major argument in favor of Platner is that he represents a new vision for Democrats. It's not a new vision: it is almost exactly the same kind of argument that Bernie Sanders failed twice to win with in his Presidential runs and that Elizabeth Warren failed at in hers; it's the vision that Harrison and Gideon ran on and lost with; it’s the vision Paula Jean Swearngin lost with twice when she trying to run for the Senate in West Virginia; it’s the same vision that Annie Andrews is trying to defeat Lindsey Graham with this cycle and that Jamie Davis is trying to run on in Louisiana. The pattern never changes; its works with Democratic primary voters, and in the general election the candidate get trashed because Republicans and independents don't buy it. The only reason it had a chance with Platner in the first place was because Maine isn't South Carolina or Louisiana or West Virginia.

And in all the examples that I've given involved infinitely less flawed candidates then Graham Platner is. In a primary you can run as far as you want to the left but in the general you have to move to the center.  This is counterintuitive to how the left believes anything should be done, and it's never paid off in any Senate race in the last decade or even further back. Platner is now going to have to win over independents and moderates who might have had doubts about Collins. That was going to be a tough fight just on his platform alone; with all of the scandals already following him it may be impossible.

To be clear if you don't think the RNC, the GOP and every dark money organization connected with the Republican party hasn't been created anti-Platner ads since November, you clearly have forgotten who your opponents are. The big difference is, up until now, they haven't had to start digging up false scandals to plague their opponent; he's basically acknowledging many of them and the 'liberal media' has been pointing them out for the last several weeks. Platner is going to be on the defensive from day one of  the general campaign. He had to acknowledge as much in his 'victory speech' last night.  And all of this is before the Republicans start digging for more skeletons in his closet. I don't exactly think they'll need a steam shovel to unearth them.

This all comes before what is now the biggest difference between now and when Platner announced his run for the Senate last November. The map has shifted dramatically in favor of the Democrats. It was going to be an uphill battle at the end of 2025 but now in large part because of Trump's presidency as well as his spending much of the primary campaign taking revenge on many of his opponents within the GOP, the odds have begun to shift in favor of the Democrats taking the Senate back. As I mentioned Race to the White House has shifted the odds in favor of the Democrats doing so for the first time last week. Roy Cooper looks certain to win in North Carolina, Sherrod Brown and Mary Peltola look like they will gain seats in Ohio and Alaska, and for the first time in decades James Talarico has an excellent chance to win a seat in Texas. In addition Iowa is increasingly beginning to look like it may be in play after Joni Ernst's retirement.  Winning Maine was critical to the Democrats taking back the Senate as recently as May. Right now, it might just be icing on the cake.

And while Democrats have gaining a better chance of winning the Senate everywhere else Graham Platner's chances of winning in Maine have been dropping. Race to the White House had his chances as high as 70 percent and had moved the state into Lean Democrat back in March. Now they have it ranked as toss up and his odds have dropped to 63 percent. Kalshi, the major prediction market, once had Platner's odds as high as 72 percent. They currently have it at 57 percent in his favor.

The polls reflect a similar downward trajectory. As late as May 27^th Platner had a nine point led in the general: 51 percent to 42 percent. A poll released Monday showed his lead had shrunk to 51%/49% with some polls showing the two tied or Collins with a slight lead. Other Democrats, such as Talarico and Brown, have been gaining ground and moving ahead in their races. Platner is the only one going backwards.

And keeping this all within the state of Maine, where it’s the only place that matters, all of the controversy around Platner will know doubt solidify Republican support around Collins in a way a more moderate candidate wouldn't have the same issues. This has been true as a general rule for Republicans across the board; when the Democrat has such obvious flaws it can only help. Its worth remembering Maine has ranked choice voting and I find it difficult to believe that a state with such an independent streak, as well as a district that has voted for Trump in multiple elections, is going to find Platner as convincing a sell as so many progressives believe he will be.  And I find it infinitely plausible that many voters might be so frustrated with either choice that they might choose not to vote at all and low turnout generally favors Republicans. I believe progressives have reminded us of that fact more then once.

For all of this pessimism, its worth noting that in Maine the Democrats do have an off-ramp. According to the election laws the nominated candidate can still choose to withdraw by a deadline. This year it's July 13^th.  So if Platner can be convinced for the good of the party to withdraw his name from consideration another candidate, whether it is Janet Mills or someone else from the Maine Party, could run in his stead. We'd look incompetent for doing so, of course, and there's no guarantee it would end up leading to a victory in Maine but as anyone who's been a Democrat as long as I have, incompetent is basically our go-to look. And in this case I think the Party would prefer  looking incompetent and having a chance of victory then embracing a candidate this toxic and almost certainly losing and whatever collateral damage is does to our already tattered brand.

To be clear it is in the best interest of the Democratic Party and any chance they have in Maine to convince Platner to step down. If he doesn't then I need to be blunt. I will be endorsing Susan Collins for reelection. This wouldn't be a hard choice most times: Collins is as much a centrist as many of the Democrats I've endorsed in my column before and we very clearly need more of them in the Senate, not less. And considering Platner has no business being anywhere near the halls of Congress, no matter which party he chose to be a party of, it's an even easier choice for me. I suspect it will be far easier for the good people of Maine who are the only ones whose opinion matters in this discussion.