Wednesday, June 17, 2026

My Predictions (And Hopes) For the 2026 Emmys, Week 1, Part 3: OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

 

Again we're dealing with only five nominees and this is where I have to make some of the  unkindest cuts. Even  by deciding to set aside Ayo Edebiri voluntarily I have to decide to ignore Lisa Kudrow for the final season of The Comeback (she might very well make it anyway) Kristen Bell for Season 2 of Nobody Wants This or Kristin Wiig for the second and (sob!) final season of Palm Royale. And those are just the actresses who've been nominated in the last two years for their excellent work.

But let's not kid ourselves. When it came to this year these are the queens.

 

Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary

No one owes Quinta Brunson anything by this point. She got an Emmy for the Pilot the first year Abbott debuted, she won for Best Actress its second year on the air and every year like clockwork she gets two nominations for acting and producing minimum.  Everything that's happened to her since 2022 has to be gravy.

It would be so easy for her to rest on her laurels and yet every year she goes out of her way to make Janine just as much of a joy to watch. Here we see Janine and Gregory in a good romantic place yet again, wearing ridiculous Halloween costumes on a campfire, trying to communicate when both have been silenced by a student exercise, trying to find a way to power through when they have to teach in a mall, Janine trying to find a way to secretly give homework when its banned…you know, usual stuff.

But Brunson's finest hour came near the final stretch, first when she and Gregory broke up when they couldn't agree on the goals of vacations, then when she ended up getting horribly drunk and went from silly to mean in a way we've never seen (getting banned from her favorite club), then being fake manipulated by Jacob in talking with Greg and failing, then listening to Barbara and really dealing with her issues. Then they ended up at a Miami meeting at district when it seemed like Abbott would get closed down and she tried to come up with a plan – and nearly ended up doing something on Mostly Fans. (Hey, that's Margo's way to provide for her loved ones. See below.) Of course Abbott muddled through and it looks like wedding bells will be in the future as well as countless jokes by Ava about finding a dress small enough to fit Janine.

Brunson doesn't need another shiny award for her trophy shelf: if anything she may need to have a case built before Abbott comes to an end. But I need to put Brunson first because as we all know, neither she nor Janine would.

 

Elle Fanning, Margo's Got Money Troubles

I've made it clear I couldn't get into The Great, Elle Fanning's previous streaming comedy where she got at least two undeserved Emmy nominations (in my opinion). I much prefer her work as Margo where she is naked just as often but just as funny and takes even less shit.

Elle's Margo makes every kind of mistake imaginable by the time the Pilot is over and by the end of the second episode it seems likes she's hit rock bottom. And as is often the case when you hit rock bottom, that's when you start posing on OnlyFans rating dicks by comparing them to Pokémon and then meeting up with other OnlyFans workers to create a wrestling persona that's a space alien. You know, the average life for a David E. Kelley heroine.

Having just completing the entire first season I found Fanning's work a joy from beginning to end. It wasn't just that he was hysterically funny all the way through, it was that no matter how absurd her life got (and I've barely touched on it) Fanning always made Margo relatable. She's the least glamorous of all the heroines of David E. Kelley's TV in the 21st century but she's also the most relatable and the most unfiltered. As with all Kelley series this eventually ended up in a legal battle involving custody of her child but for once it has less to due with long summations but simple humanity and in those moments Fanning was seen at her most genuine and pure. There was something relatable every step of the way – and yes this is a series where Season 1 ended with her dressed as a space alien about to sell pictures of her genitalia for the first time.

It's a pity that Fanning's debut happened to come out against the final season of Hacks where almost every great performance in this category is going to fall horribly (and let's face it, deservedly) short in the final nominee.  But I'm glad a second season has been greenlit. Even if it is a step down anything that gives Fanning's another shot as the Hungry Ghost is fine by me. As it is, she more than deserves the nod for her work here.

 

Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building

It's only because of the ludicrous amount of talent in this category that Gomez to this point in her tenure on Only Murders has gotten just two nominations in this category. Last year she was snubbed for the second time when for reasons best known to the Emmys Uzo Aduba was chosen over her for The Residence.  Considering Aduba already has three Emmys and Gomez has none, that was too much for me – though I've no doubt Mabel would have taken it in stride and just seethed.

As we found out during the fifth season Mabel has always struggled under an inferiority complex along with all the darkness that surrounds her. As she told Charles and Oliver (while they were autopsying a murder victim on a kitchen table, of course) she'd managed to find her place in the building and was being happy – and then her former childhood friend 'THE' rented the penthouse at the Arconia, stealing her thunder. Mabel and Althea had been childhood friends and there was a misunderstanding and now Mabel's miserable. Add to this the fact that a robot's now the new doorman, some of her friends may be moving out, their podcast's ownership is now part of three members of the one percent and the Arconia is getting a horrible reputation in large part because of all the murders that are increasingly happening because of the podcast's existence, well, you can understand why Mabel might be gloomy.

Gomez has always been the biggest surprise of the comic spirit of Only Murders as well as its beating heart. She really is willing to ride or die with these senior citizens and the true bond that they've formed has been one of the great shows of TV during the last decade as well as the product of some of the greatest humor. I'm not saying Gomez should win this year but come on: give Bloody Mabel a nomination.

Carrie Preston, Elsbeth

Clearly Carrie Preston should have been competing in this category the whole time. Yes I know she won her previous Emmy for Best Guest Actress in a Drama but honestly Preston's basically been playing eccentric to the point of comically crazy characters her entire career.  And let's be honest her performance definitely is more comedic than anything Ayo Edebiri has ever done in The Bear. (Sorry but the truth hurts.)

I made that mistake, of course. I spent two seasons advocating for Elsbeth as a drama (to be fair so did many awards shows) but every time Elsbeth appears on the screen I smile. I can't help it. At this point Preston has one of the most expressive faces, combined with gestures, and various noises that she reduce us to hysterics without having to say a word. And when most of the time she keeps being unable to follow her own train of thought during a discussion with a suspect or a fellow cop or a random bystander or herself you find yourself laughing hysterically.  And the outfits! My God, the handbags and the hats! She's not Columbo, she's Mary Poppins!

And she's lovable! I mean, this is a hardened attorney whose investigating murders for the NYPD, dealing with some of the most cold-hearted, cold-blooded members of the one percent who are always committed the most horrible crimes. And she still seems to like them. I swear, most of the time she's actually disappointed she has to have them arrested. I mean, they are criminals and she is sworn to follow the law but by the time she's done she's usually developed more than a shred of sympathy for them. She just so empathetic.  I often felt sorry for the attorneys Elsbeth outsmarted on The Good Wife every time she guest starred; now when she locks up another wealthy criminal I feel so bad for her.  But she just keeps on with that optimism and you know New York is a better place because of it.

Now I admit Preston has an uphill battle to get a nomination in this category. I think it'll happen eventually but not this year. As I said, its pretty stacked and I really should have put in Kristen Bell or Lisa Kudrow ahead of her. But I couldn't put her in FYC. Preston is just too good at this and is just so much fun. She's a longshot, but honestly that's what Elsbeth always is.

 

Jean Smart, Hacks

You know when Helen Hunt and Julia-Louis Dreyfus were setting records for consecutive Emmys for Mad About You and Veep it always irritated me how they won year after year. So you'd think seeing Jean Smart go four for four would have that same effect or at the very least I'd be something of a hypocrite when I push her for Best Actress every year. And maybe I am. But the thing is Deb Vance is too and she knows it.

Watching Jean Smart play Deb Vance has been one of the great viewing experiences in my lifetime as a critic and a fan and I don't think I'm alone in thinking that. It has been an epic journey with Deb and everyone in her circle and entourage. Even when she can be unbearable – and she has had horrible moments – you're still rooting for her in a way I just couldn't for the Selina Meyers or all the brilliant women on Showtime dramedies over that same period. The reason is Deb has been through it in a way that the overwhelming majority of us – and certainly not the kind of women Ava was when we first met her – can never understand. The Deb Vance's of the world broke down barriers that today's women take for granted and in fact judge them for not doing enough. We've seen at every season how much being Deb Vance has cost Deborah – her relationship with her sister, a relationship with her daughter she's only now repairing and no real friends in the world until Ava came into her life. Most women couldn't have made it a day in Deb's heels.

In the final season we see Deb trying to figure out her legacy. Having been banned from the airwaves after taking a stand she makes a plan to sell out Madison Square Garden. We see the old Deb and the new Deb all at once, we see Deb with her fanbase and Deb trying to figure out old relationships. We see Deb looking back on her distant past – we finally see the sitcom she helped created in the 1970s – and we see her going on The Amazing Race with her daughter. We see her building her bond with Ava, which is now in gold – and in the series finale we see just how far the two have come.

A fifth Emmy is all but inevitable for Smart and it will put her in the pantheon of TV legends, including the late Mary Tyler Moore and Allison Janney. (I will explain why down the road.) As someone who has considered Smart one of the greatest actresses on TV during the 21st century no more fitting record could be pure for Smart. And though Hacks may be finished I don't think Smart is.

 

FYC:

Malin Akerman, The Hunting Wives

Ok. First things first. Why Akerman and not her co-lead Brittany Snow? Well as you'll see I think its likely Snow is going to be nominated down the road for a different show so I'm going to focus my energy on the Hunting Wife who has less of a chance of being nominated.

But more to the point Akerman's work as Margo Banks was the real joy of watching this fun, sleeper sensation from last summer.  As I wrote in my original review Akerman was absolutely a joy to watch both in terms of pure sexual energy, comic fulfillment and some of the most wonderful lines I heard delivered in 2025. Sexual manipulation, secret lesbianism, gun toting, and public shaming have rarely been more fun then when Margo did them. (No she didn't manage all four in the same scene; you have to save something for Season 2.)

Akerman's odds are long but not impossible. She has been nominated by the Gotham TV Awards for Best Actress (admittedly in drama) and by the Astras in the Comedy category. It's an uphill climb to be sure but as we've seen more often then not on The Hunting Wives Akerman is very good at upward mobility.

 

Tomorrow I move on to Supporting Actor in a Comedy. More nominees but its not going to get any easier.

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