Thursday, June 25, 2026

My Predictions (And Hopes) For the 2026 Emmy Nominations, Week 2, Part 4: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama

 


Two realities. This category has room for seven nominees. Of the seven nominated actors from last year only one is still eligible and while he's a longshot I think he has a chance. Combined with the fact that so many of the series that dominated this category for the past decade – Succession and Better Call Saul among them – have ended their run there are by necessity going to be a lot of new faces here.

As with past years I'm going to limit myself to two nominees for each series for fairness sake.  So here are my picks in this category.

 

Patrick Ball, The Pitt

Of all of the cast members of The Pitt who were the biggest victims of the overkill for Severance and The White Lotus last year Patrick Ball's work as Dr. Langdon has to rank as the most obvious one. As the resident whose burnout eventually was revealed as an addiction to drugs and whose betrayal by far cut Robby the deepest in Season 1 Ball would have been considered a frontrunner any other year. That the Critics Choice Awards nominated him for Best Supporting Actor showed the impression he made.

In Season 2, back from a stint in rehab and on his first day back Ball demonstrated a completely different side from the hard-edged resident who tried to bully everybody and who made excuses for everything. He knows he has to prove himself and tries everything he can in order to make amends with those he's wronged, which is impossible with Robby who spends almost the entire shift not wanting to be in the same room with him. We see his growth in small ways (he shows he remembers about certain interns) and big (the way he apologizes to Dana, who lets it go) his character shows the biggest difference between the characters in two seasons. And most of all it gives hope by illustrating change and redemption is possible for those who are broken by trauma, a message that is powerful not only in the course of the series but the kind of story we need for TV in general.

Ball is an early frontrunner to win in this category that has no clear favorites for the first time in nearly a decade. And he is more than deserving of recognition for having been ignored by the Emmys last year.

Zack Galifinakis, The Audacity

Zack Galifinakis has been a secret weapon in Peak TV for much of the 21st century, usually in underrated comedies such as Bored to Death or Baskets. The Audacity gives him an opportunity to slightly tweak his comic persona for darker, dramatic purposes and as the tech mogul Carl, slightly more mature than Duncan Park but it many ways just as ruthless it absolutely paid off.

Through much of the first season we actually think Carl is the adult in the story, someone who is trying to improve from all the stresses he's had, someone who wants to show growth and bring about good in the world, someone who has no room for the BS of Duncan and his colleagues. But all the time we know that he's just as much a child, making his lackeys fight each other in death matches with mouses, play acting as a soldier in false military campaigns and in his most crowning act of embarrassment, bringing home an actual veteran to participate in his war games and thinking he'll be impressed by his reenactment. When the VA figures shares his honest opinion Carl immediately reneges on his promises, feeling no remorse for how he treats him and his sympathy for the man's fate the definition of crocodile tears. In the final scene between him and Duncan, he tries to take an avuncular pose and continue to judge him but at the end of it we learn he's just as ruthless and uncaring as the man he's mocked for a full season.

Galifianakis has received some awards buzz for his work earning a Supporting Acting in a Drama nomination from the Gotham TV award in May and a similar nomination from the Astras earlier this month. He's a dark horse in this category but I think the odds are moving in his favor and I think he's worthy of recognition.

Shawn Hatosy, The Pitt

It was a surprise to some awards followers that Hatosy, deservedly last year's winner for Best Guest Actor in a Drama for his work as Jack Abbott, decided for Season 2 to be nominated as a supporting actor even though he appeared in the same number of episode he did last season: five. Though honestly it really makes sense because it was clear from the moment we met him, looking like he was going to jump in the Pilot, that Jack was the mirror image of Dr. Robby. And its clear in ten months' time Jack has managed to move forward and Robby is now the one in danger.

This isn't clear at first when he shows up when the ER 'goes analog' in the first real crisis of the shift. But it becomes vital by the time he returns for the night shift and Robby is still there, while his friend and biking buddy has just found out his cough is the sign of something much worse. Eventually Jack, who clearly knows Robby better than anyone else on the staff, puts together the pieces of what Robby's plans were when he left on sabbatical and what he was planning to do. And in the season finale he does what no one else the entire season has managed to do, he lays bare just how broken he is, how much he needs him and that he doesn't want him to go through with it. Part of their final exchange is that he's Robby emergency contact and that he doesn't want to have to ever show up for that critical call.

If Hatosy's manages to make Emmy history by winning two Emmys for playing the same character in two different categories it will be because of his incredible power in these scenes. And for an actor who has been working nearly as long as Wyle has and gotten less appreciation in far more undervalued series such as Southland and Animal Kingdom, I think all of us would be fine with that

Jack Lowden, Slow Horses

Lowden was nominated for his work as River Cartwright two years ago and honestly should have been nominated for Season 4 as well. By any measure his work in that season was the finest and most personal storyline his character has done to that point and he was robbed of a nomination.

By contrast Season Five of Slow Horses was typical Lowden: the man of action, always charging into to the fight, the only competent agent in Slough House who arguably should be back at MI-5 except he's realized something that perhaps only Lamb has: the management and the Dogs are so dipped in politics and following orders that he may in the only unit that can do good.  The bigger problem is that he has a sense of order and justice which four seasons in Lamb and the other horses have yet to fully dampen and in a weird way makes him perhaps the only good man in the entire British Secret Service. This will almost certainly get him killed and at the end of every season you're honestly astonished it hasn't yet.

That Lowden can hold his own with some of the greatest actors of all time – not just Oldman but Kristin Scott Thomas and Jonathan Pryce – is a credit to just how incredible he is; that he manages to earn recognition among a field that it is always crowded with veterans all the more so.  I suspect he'll be back in the field this season and if not, eventually he will. He's just too good to keep down.

 

James Marsden, Paradise

Marsden is the only nominee from last season who is eligible to compete this year. "But wait?" you're all saying. "Didn't he only appear in three episodes? And wasn't he not real there in any of them?" True but as we all learned from watching Dan Fogler, just because your character dies in the Pilot doesn't mean you don't get to keep showing up and keep doing impressive work.

Cal Bradford only appears in flashbacks and critically in the mind of Sinatra as she tries to adjust to the new paradigm that has unfolded after she was shot in the season finale last year. As Paradise faces challenges outside and within it is telling that most of the drama comes with the conversations between the two as Sinatra is clearly aware 'Cal' is clearly her subconscious, something that's she spent most of the last decade burying but now can't ignore. If Xavier is the living version of the post-apocalypse moral consciences Cal is the ephemeral one and Marsden continues to find incredible depths in them.

Despite his limited appearances Marsden was nominated for Best Supporting Actor by the Astras and as we’ve seen in previous a limited number of episodes hasn't constrained the Emmys from nominating – and even giving the grand prize – to actors whose role is limited.  As someone who thinks its taken too long for us to appreciate how great an actor Marsden is on TV, I think he should get all the nominations he can.

Tom Pelphrey, Task

Tom Pelphrey has been one of the most impressive forces in TV since his work as the doomed brother of Laura Linney in Ozark, which earned him an Emmy nomination for its final season. He's never been less than watchable whether in brilliant works like Love & Death or even questionable ones such as Outer Range. Now as Robbie Pendergrast, the unlikely robber in Task, he dominates the screen in a way he's rarely got a chance to before.

Robbie was a good man once, a husband, a father, a brother. When his brother was murdered – in large part because of an infidelity he tried to talk him out of – Robbie spends his time leading raids on the biker gang that killed him. And then when a job goes wrong and he's left with a load of fentanyl and the child of the bikers, he ends up dooming himself and all those around him. The irony is Robby is too much of a bad man to do the right thing and too much of a good man to be a decent criminal and as a result he ends up indirectly causing a huge amount of collateral damage to those he loves.

The climax of the series comes when Tom comes to his house and Robbie ends up taking him hostage. Tom thinks he's doomed no matter what and neither we nor him know that Robbie is locked on a fatal course. When he lets Tom go we later see in the penultimate episode that he's set himself up to sacrifice himself in a plan he thinks will save his family. His death was one of the most haunting in 2025, in large part because he seemed far closer to a good man then the antihero type we've witnessed.

Pelphrey is the current frontrunner in this category for his work as Robbie and I can think of few actors who deserve it more for few performances that are more worthy. I know Pelphrey's gone from Task but I also know he'll be back in a project just as worthy of him soon.

 

Jason Ritter, Matlock

I advocated for Ritter last year and the Emmys chose to ignore him – they were too focused on Severance and The White Lotus. I acknowledge that the field is yet again filled with big names who will almost certainly get in above him. It doesn't change the fact that he has been Matlock's secret weapon for two seasons.

In Season 1 Ritter's Julian really seemed to be a combination of nepo baby trying to earn the love of a man who would never give it to him and who we saw in the climax had done something horrible despite it. In Season 2 Julian spent the first half of it basically being tortured by Senior on one side and caught in the vise by Maddie and Olivia on the other, trying to work an angle, trying to find a way out. Then he learned about Maddie's secret and exploded as both women tried to win him over.

And then a stunning thing happened. Julian grew both a spine and a conscience. As the battle for Jacobson Moore played out and he realized just how much he'd been used by everyone around him, he kept trying to find a way out and then when everything fell apart he made the hardest decision of his life: to sacrifice his own freedom for the greater good. It fully redeemed his character in a way almost nothing else had and when the series ends up resetting it puts him a new place.

I've loved Ritter's work on a personal level ever since I first saw him in Joan of Arcadia and I think its criminal he has yet to earn an Emmy nomination. The Astras nominated him in this category for the second consecutive year; I'd argue it's past time he finally got recognized.

 

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

Peter Dinklage, Dexter: Resurrection

I confess to having my doubts that Dexter: Resurrection would succeed where New Blood had come up short. But it surpassed my wildest expectations and that was in large part due to one of the most astonishing guest casts the show's had. And Dinklage's work as Leon Prater, the one percent New York socialite who 'collects' serial killers was a big reason it did.

Dinklage has a long history of playing morally ambiguous characters to say the least but not even House Lannister could prepare you for his work as Prater, a man who has taken the greatest tragedy of his life and used it to try and understand serial killers, a man who is fascinating by the pathology of violence and allows people to killer for his pleasure and for money but who has never killed himself, a man who thinks that 'Dexter' is special and understands but doesn't realize the contempt he holds for him, a man who thinks his wealth and power isolate him from the consequences of everything he does – including when he kills Angel and rejoices in the feeling. Dinklage compared his character to Charles Manson, a man who inspires acolytes to kill for him but never gets his hands dirty himself. It was a fascinating look into darkness – and we actually cheered when Prater ended up on Dexter's table, begging for mercy.

I wouldn't mind if Michael C. Hall was nominated for his iconic role or for that matter much of the cast. But Dinklage, who was the only thing I could tolerate about Game of Thrones, deserves special recognition. The Emmys have been generous to the special guests in Dexter's world in the past. I think its time they did so again.

 

Tomorrow I wrap things up in Drama with my nominees for Supporting Actress. Expect the same as today though I do have a certain freedom that I didn't before.

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