Tuesday, June 16, 2026

My Predictions (And Hopes) For the 2026 Emmy Nominations, Week 1, Day 2: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy

 

All right. Now while I don't agree with how the Academy does this, according to submission guidelines there will only be five eligible spots. And to be very clear I'm not giving one of them to Jeremy Allan White.  So far this year neither have the SAG Awards, the Critics Choice Awards, the Astras or any other awards show but the Golden Globes. If White gets in – and he very well might – it will be due to that institutional laziness I discussed rather then the caliber of his performance.

For the remaining five I'm doing what I've done in recent years: mixing my personal preferences with what the various awards shows over the last six months have been willing to do, combined with the Emmys past history. I'm confident in four of my picks: the fifth is a wild card and as always I have an FYC up my sleeve. Here goes:

 

Adam Brody, Nobody Wants This

Until The Studio debuted last winter and Seth Rogen began (deservedly) to win everything not nailed down Adam Brody was the frontrunner for Best Actor in a Comedy  for his superbly gentle work as Noah 'the hot rabbi'.  While the buzz for Season 2 has been somewhat diminished it has not dropped for Brody who yet again was nominated for Best Actor by every critics group between here and the summer.

Brody remains a superb comic performer because, unlike so many of the wonderful talents in the cast, he mostly keeps plays his role with kindness and humility. He is a sane man in an insane family – two, if you throw in his girlfriends – and there's something refreshing about seeing a romantic male lead in a comedy who doesn't have the same baggage as so many we've seen over the last decade. Noah is good at his job, we can see that every time he's in the temple and when he says the right words and we know the pressure he's been under his whole life without he or anyone else having to tell us and its charming to see him going out of his way to be the good guy in most situations and mean it.  This doesn't mean there aren't wonderful comic moments – such as when he learns he's being replaced by another Rabbi Noah and that this Rabbi is as good as him – but it helps to see us root for him.

Brody is an outlier in this category as he's the only selection I've made whose performance isn't built more on self-humiliation then anyone else. That doesn't make him better than the other nominees – as you'll see they are superb at their jobs – but it does make him easy to root for in ways the others aren't.

 

Ethan Hawke, The Lowdown

The Lowdown doesn't easily fit in any category – it's equal parts drama, mystery, noir, farce and sermon – but there's one thing I know for sure: Hawke's performance as Lee Raebun, a self-proclaimed 'truth-storian' is absolutely a comic gem and its funnier than anything Carmy's done in four seasons on The Bear.

Lee is a legend in his own mind; to everyone else in his small town of Oklahoma, he's a joke and not a very funny one.  Even before the series begins its clear he has one innate gift: pissing people off and he almost seems to take pride in how good he is at it even as it isolates him from everyone else in town, including anyone who might be a friend and how it puts the people he loves – including his own daughter – in mortal danger. Lee would be a believer in making good trouble if you left the 'good'  out. We see him storm a funeral in such a horrible way Don Lemon would be embarrassed (the episode aired six months before events in Minneapolis by the way) and berate the family of the mourners.  The fact he hasn't been killed yet is something that seems astonishing to him – and yet never enough to get him to slow down or even take precautions. The fact that his conspiracy theories happen to be right doesn't make him any less of a prick.

Hawke, however, has a gift for making these character hysterical. He doesn't make Lee half as insane as he did as John Brown in his incredible work in The Good Lord Bird but it's a damn near thing. In both cases the righteousness of his cause just covers the ridiculous level of horrible behavior and collateral damage he does to those around him – and still by the end of the series (or in The Lowdown's case, the season) you find yourself wondering a hundred times: is this the hero we need or deserve?

Hawke has already been nominated for a Golden Globe and an Astra for his work in The Lowdown and he was more than worthy both times. Of course The Lowdown premiered way back in September but that's rarely been a disqualifier for a lot of the nominees in this category. (The Bear premiered its most recent season last June, for one.) Hawke is my longshot in this category but I think he's earned it. Besides they stiffed him for Good Lord Bird. They owe him.

 

Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building

Inexplicably Martin was left off the roster last season for his work as Charles Haden-Savage and it very well might happen again this year. But having seen the fifth season I always ask: what do the Emmys have against Brazos?

In Season 5 we saw Charles dealing with, well, basically the usual things. The murder of Lester the doorman and having to do an autopsy in his apartment – during which he had a conversation with the corpse. (He knows he's talking to himself, he's not that crazy.) He starting looking for love on the dating aps which went as well as you expected; he started taking testosterone, ditto; he ended up trying to grill a potential suspect at the equivalent of a Benihana and he ended up having sex with her in a van and losing his phone, and then he got catfished by one of the billionaire suspects who he thought was a potential date. You know, just another day at the Arconia.

As is always the case Martin continues to balance Charles with perfect dignity and utter humiliation often within the exact same line or gesture. He's always funny, charming and he wars his heart on his sleeve – not the best look for a sleuth or podcaster but its worked out just fine for five seasons. I don't know how much longer Only Murders has before it comes to an end but I do know Martin is talking more and more about retirement and we should appreciate both him and the show he's done more to realize than any of his colleagues. For the love of God give Brazos – I mean Steve Martin – an Emmy nod this year.

 

Jason Segel, Shrinking

Of all the people on this list Segel is almost certainly guaranteed a return: he's already been nominated for both previous seasons and the Emmys is consistent if nothing else.  The thing about Segel's work is, unlike with many of the actors in Shrinking, you can't imagine anyone but Segel playing Jimmy.  Which is odd because from the start its been the most un Jason Segel like role he's place.

Jimmy has always played characters who are the grownups in the relationship: we see in the movies and TV shows he's done. Part of the reason Shrinking works is because Jimmy is deeply traumatized and as a result he keeps makes horrible but completely understandable mistakes. He did it both professionally and personally throughout the first two seasons and while he kept saying he was moving forward with Jimmy it's always one step forward, two steps back. Throughout Season 3 he actually seemed to be breaking the cycle more often then not, and then he kept blundering with his relationship with his daughter.

Your heartbreaks for Jimmy far more than any of the other nominees in this group because, as is the case with almost every Bill Lawrence show, the characters are the most relatable. The horrors of life got in the way of nearly every major character on Shrinking but their little village kept dealing. Jimmy has been taking care of everyone, but who will take care of him? It's because Segel plays him with such humor and heart that this show flows the way it does.

 

Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building

Incredibly Martin Short is the only series regular on Only Murders who has been nominated every season. Less incredibly, he's also one of the only actors whose won an award or two: he's been given an Astra for Best Streaming Comedy in 2022 and a SAG-AFTRA award for Best Lead Actor in 2025. So the question is, will this finally be Marty's year to win at the Emmys?

Based purely on an acting level Short's work as Oliver was everything we're used out of four seasons and yet still more.  Adjusting to life as a newlywed this season Oliver came to realize just how much contempt everyone in the Arconia held him in, how much of a user he was.  But over the course of four seasons we've been seeing slow but steady character growth with him and it paid off the most. He has a woman who genuinely loves him, he has friends genuinely care about him and you can see he really wants to make a fresh start where he doesn't have all the baggage. And for the first time in the Flatbush episode we found out the backstory of Oliver Putnam, why he loves the theater and why he is who he is. Like everything else with the show it was done with heart, humor and was immediately undercut.

Then there's the fact Short might be the sentimental favorite, given the tragedies that have undercut much of his personal life in the last year. He's always been beloved by Hollywood and of the three leads he has the worst track record with the Emmys. He's the prohibitive favorite in what is a wide-open category and I don't think anyone, least of all me, would have a problem with that.

 

For Your Consideration

Zach Braff, Scrubs

I never learn. Twenty years have passed; I'm still tilting at windmills.

But things have changed. The Emmys now seem to have realized just how much of a genius Bill Lawrence has always been; we're more appreciative of Scrubs and the reboot was popular. So here goes. John Dorian has changed immensely in twenty years and I don't just mean that Turk can't carry him on his back any more. I mean he's learned just how broken the system and how little you can do to fix it, how messy relationships are even in the world of dating apps, how just because you get the girl in the end doesn't mean there's a happily ever after – and when your mentor finally needs you, it's because he might be dying. Of course not everything has changed – the custodial staff still hates him.

I know that Lawrence's shows will get more representation in this category: Jason Segel is a lock and Steve Carell has a better than even chance of being nominated for Rooster. But if I'm going to go with a favorite from a 2000s NBC workplace comedy, I'm going to dance with the one I went home with then. And that means JD over Michael Scott any day.

 

Tomorrow I will tell you who will lose to Jean Smart – I mean the nominees for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy. (Come on, that was never going to be a spoiler and I'm fine with it.)

 

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