Tracking the Justice Democrats, Part 3:Right Now Hakeem Jeffries Is Taking The Justice Democrats As Seriously As They Deserve – Which is, Honestly, the right Amount

 

 

As I've mentioned before I live in New York where many crucial members of Congress live including Hakeem Jeffries, House minority leader and in line to become Speaker should the Democrats win Congress this November.

I've never considered him as seriously as Chuck Schumer, mainly because he isn't in my district. But I have to give him props for handling a question in the aftermath of Darializa Avila Chevalier's victory over Adriana Espaillat on Tuesday.

In the aftermath of toppling a prominent Democrat in House leadership Chevalier in her victory speech said something along the lines of: "Hakeem Jeffries, you're next." A reporter than asked Jeffries if he was worried about a primary challenge in 2028. Jeffries said: ""Ask a serious question."

The reason I respect Jeffries is for his restraint. If I were in his shoes I would have said something along the lines of: "You're shitting me, right? I'm busy dealing with all the problems of being in charge of the House Democrats now and doing everything for us to take Congress back this November and you have the balls to ask me if I'm worried about being primaried in two years? Do you people have the same short attention spans as some of the members of my caucus? I'm worried about this election and you're worried about the next one?! What have you been smoking and can I have some? I need to burn off some stress!"

Jeffries, in my opinion, would have every right to be that mad. Because right now he is focused on whether or not the Democrats will control Congress in a few months' time. That is likely but not certain and he knows it. And he also knows because he's been in Congress awhile that in the last eight years AOC and the Squad have done little, if anything, to help the Democrats either keep the majority or govern responsibly as a party. He was in a position to see that in 2020 when members like Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush did much to destroy Biden's legislation in the House when they were trying to compromise to get it passed in the Senate and he is painfully aware of how when they have been in the minority or when Trump has been President they've done everything in their power to make House Democrats look like children with performative stunts and activism.

Jeffries is also very aware that if he wants to be Speaker the key thing is for the Democrats to win a majority in November and in the last three election cycles the Justice Democrats have done nothing to make that easier. To put in the context of this article they have not helped the party win seats in swing districts or even redder ones so that they can help win the majority. He and his colleagues no doubt realized that after Biden's election showed exactly were and Harris's defeat drove it home.

He knew the  Justice Democrats have a long history of writing checks their party can't cash. So when in  January 2025 they announced that they would be recruiting candidates for the next midterms in all 50 states he had reason to be skeptical.

Over the last year he like many Democrats had reasons for optimism. Almost from the start of 2025 the national party which has been overperforming at a state and local level in nearly every election that year, starting with two Congressional races in Florida and continuing across the board in nearly every state of the union. This includes states where the Democrats have underperformed for years including statehouse wins in Iowa.

  Going into  2026 the Justice Democrats spectacularly failed that standard, recruiting only fourteen candidates to run in eleven states. Meanwhile the national party was undergoing a major recruitment drive to run if not in every state of the Union then very close to it. As a result the Democrats look poised to make gains in places they haven't been competitive for years, if not decades, including the Delegate-at-Large in both Montana and Alaska and perhaps as many as three of the four Congressional districts in Iowa. The Justice Democrats didn't find anyone to run in these states at all in their long search.

Reluctantly I admit that so far the 2026 midterms have been a decent one for the Justice Democrats. With the primary cycle nearly over they've managed to gain at least four new members: Adam Hamawy in New Jersey, Chris Rabb in Pennsylvania and Claire Valdez and Darializa Avila Chevalier in New York. It's conceivable in November they may gain at least one new member in California.

But as Jeffries is aware of these are all already seats that were safely Democratic to begin with. It will change some of the faces in Congress next cycle but not the balance of power. And its particularly telling that in nearly every state where the Justice Democrats have challenged so far there are races that Jeffries and the Party are more focused on – because Republicans currently hold them.

Take North Carolina where Nida Allam tried and failed for the second time to unseat Valerie Foushee. Right now the Democrats are trying to hold Don Davis's seat in the first which has been redistricted as Republican and Jamie Ager is trying to unseat Chuck Edwards in the 11^th. These are districts that in 2024 both went Republican by huge margins, between 10 and 12 percent. That Allam didn't try to run in either of those districts – or for that matter any of the more conservative ones -  and instead chose to spend her time and energy challenging an incumbent progressive showed where her priorities were – and how they contrasted with Jeffries.

Control of the House might very well go through Pennsylvania where no less then four districts held by Republicans are in play. Last year three of them went for the Republican candidate by around one percent. In Brian Fitzpatrick, who's running for reelection in the 1^st he's one of the few Republicans in a district Harris carried. These are vital races for the party.

And what did Chris Rabb do to help? He chose to run in the third district, one so blue that the Republicans aren't even contesting. That race alone should speak volumes about just the kind of fights the Justice Democrats want to have.

Now look at New York. Yes Mamdani did manage to help primary three incumbent Democrats from the left. But the key word is incumbent. As with Pennsylvania New York will also play a critical role in control of the house and that fight will come down to four districts: the third, the fourth and the 19^th in which Democrats Tom Suozzi, Laura Gillen and Josh Riley respectively are incumbent and the 17^th where Republican Mike Lawler is currently incumbent. All four of these districts were decided by narrow margins and there is a certain crossover. Suozzi one his district by 3.6 percent in one Trump carried  by 4.3 percent and Lawler won by 6.3 percent in one that Harris carried by less than one percent. Jeffries is far more concerned about holding the line in the three seats that are Democrat and hoping that Cait Conley – who won her primary to far less publicity then Chevalier – can beat Lawler in November.

You actually see this pattern in two of the states where the Justice Democrats still have candidates who are running this cycle.  In Colorado the Democrats will no doubt be making an effort to unseat Lauren Boebert and more important Gabe Evans in the 8^th district, a seat he won in 2024 by less than one percent. Melat Kiros spending so much time and energy trying to primary a Democrat in the 1^st will not help the party there. In Michigan the Democrats are trying to win in three Republican districts including the 7^th which Tom Barrett won last year by 3.7 percent. Donovan McKinney winning his primary in the 13^th isn't going to help the Democrats there. If the Justice Democrats were so focused on helping the party Kiros and McKinney would be running in one of the districts in play. That they're not makes it clear they have a different set of priorities then Hakeem Jeffries and the party.

Jeffries almost certainly knows this as does everybody in the Democratic leadership. I suspect that they've spent the last several election cycles regarding AOC and the Squad as a necessary evil, something that they hoped would help them retake Congress and the White House in the last four election cycles. Instead they have been far more trouble then they have been worth with AOC and Ilhan Omar increasingly becoming the Democratic equivalent of Marjorie Taylor Greene and Nancy Mace in previous cycles and Boebert and Paulina Luna today. Their behavior is just as performative, just as destructive to the Democrats as those in the Freedom Caucus have been to the Republicans and because they are in the bluest districts in the country, make it impossible for the party to do anything about them.

What makes this all the more frustrating is, like everything else with the left, the Justice Democrats are a paler and more ineffective imitation of the right. In five election cycles they haven't managed to accomplish what the Tea Party did in one – win control of the House of Representatives and take key positions in nearly every part of leadership, thus permanently shifting every aspect of the Republican Party from that point forward. Rashida Taib and Ilhan Ohmar have all the loudness and performances of those fire-throwers but lack the numbers to influence to overall direction of the party or the key positions in committees to change who leads. There's no one among the squad who has the power to overthrow Pelosi the same way that Kevin McCarthy, Paul Ryan and Eric Cantor managed to do to John Boehner when they took key positions after the 2012 election and they certainly don't have the raw numbers to lead the coup if they did – certainly not after this election and given their continued inability to recruit candidates in this cycle, certainly not for the foreseeable future.

And that's before you get to the fact that a full decade into their existence they still have no policy achievements to speak off either. That of course would require both houses of Congress and a Democratic President to be willing to go along with their agenda. Considering that their membership still ranks under a dozen as of the 2026 midterms and that the Democrats have only had both of these in the first two years of Biden's term the chances for that were slim and indeed none of their bills have gotten out of committee nor are they likely to for at least another two years at least. During Biden's administration the Squad was known far more for being obstructionists to Biden's agenda – which was of course too conservative for their liking – and many members of the Squad were more of a hindrance to him during his administration then a help. Jeffries is aware of this fact, something I remain skeptical that either Chevalier or any of the new Justice Democrats who will be joining Congress are aware of.

I don't deny that so many aspects of the Justice Democrats platforms as well as their rhetoric is troubling. But I also think that the media has bought into the image and vocals of what they are as opposed to what they actually are at least after eight years. The Justice Democrats are not a movement in the sense that other political movements like the Class of 1974 or the Blue Dog Democrats were for my party  or the Contract with America in 1994 or the Tea Party in 2010 were for Republicans. They are a fringe group who represent the far left of the several deep blue districts in Congress – and that's it. They still don't have any Senators or Governors who follow their platform and while Mamdani shares their sympathies he won without their endorsement in 2025 and he clearly doesn't need them. There are no Mamdani's anywhere else in the country in 2026 with this kind of power to move the meter this cycle and they may not show up for a while.

Considering their track record – which anyone who does a simple Google search can find out is far less impressive then it appears -  the Justice Democrats have to do a lot more for me to take them seriously. They will have to run candidates who can win races in swing districts and red ones. They'll have to win Senate races and governor races and its worth noting the Justice Democrats have not endorsed any candidates in either this cycle, not even Graham Platner in Maine. They'll have to do a recruitment drive and do better than fourteen candidates in eleven states – and to be clear that's their biggest field in six years. I'm understandably skeptical they can do that and honestly so should anyone with either a brain or can do basic math – which really does leave out candidates like Chevalier.

In the meantime like Jeffries I will be focused on seeing whether the Democrats can take back the House and the Senate, something that the Justice Democrats absolutely are not going to help them do this year. That's what most people should be focused on this year. If you think otherwise, well, you're not asking serious questions either.