Wednesday, June 24, 2026

My Predictions (And Hopes) For the 2026 Emmy Nominations, Week 2, Part 3: Outstanding Lead Actress in A Drama

 

It's likely Zendaya will be present for the third – and thankfully, final – season of Euphoria. But considering just how unpopular that season was across the board with critics the odds of her winning her third Emmy in this category, which were low before the final season began, are next to non-existent.

It's like for the fifth consecutive year in this decade we will have a new winner in this category, if for no other reason that last year's winner Britt Lower is ineligible. Even with only five nominees this is arguably the strongest acting category in all of drama with great reasons for all five of my choices to emerge victorious even with two very clear favorites. So here we go.

 

Kathy Bates, Matlock

Going into last year's Emmys Kathy Bates was the odds-on favorite to win for her superb performance in the title role of this incredible reinvention of Matlock. That she didn't win had less to do with the quality of her work and more due to the fact she was the only nominee for her show.  Going into the second season all the reasons to vote for her this year are just as present and then some.

In Season 2 Maddy had to deal with a whole new set of chickens coming home to roost. Her identity had been outed, first to Olivia, who she spent the first half of the season rebuilding her friendship, then to Julian who finally learned the truth about Madeline right at the time his father had a stroke. Maddy also learned about the existence of Alvy's father, watched how he tried to rebuild his life after being addicted, saw him struggle then relapse and then learn he'd known about his grandson's existence for years but had never shown up. This caused Maddy to go into another spiral in which she spent several weeks talking to an AI version of her daughter in a different form of addiction.

All this time Maddy spent her career in her mission statement of bringing down Jacobson Moore and while she was doing she found something more important – her real self. A happier version, a good friend, a good family member, the kind of attorney and woman she was before her daughter overdosed, the best version of herself. The great joy of Season 2 wasn't watching Maddy triumph over Jacobson Moore but realize that she was a better person now and to see her build bonds as a septuagenarian was one of the great accomplishment in Bates's career.

I don't know what the odds are of Bates winning this year but I'd still love to see her up there. The category is just as formidable as last year but she's still everything I love about her.

Christine Baranski, The Gilded Age

I understand why Baranski chose to go from Supporting Actress to Lead for Season 3 of The Gilded Age – Agnes is as much a co-lead in the series as Carrie Coon's Russell. Personally I think Baranski would have had better odds had she stayed the course – she was nominated for Best Supporting Actress in Season 2 and indeed she was nominated in this category by the Astras last month.

And its not as though her performance was any less brilliant then it had been in the previous two seasons. As I've sent throughout my raves of the show every line out of Baranski's mouth is a gem, a pointed barb that always makes you laugh and always makes her the highlight of the action. And this season Agnes showed more growth then she had in the previous two: first when it came to her compassion for her secretary and making it clear how she didn't realize the difference between the worlds of white and colored women in society to her parents. She continued to adjust to her new station in life, no longer as the mistress of her own household and finding her own way forward. She showed how much she could find depths for those below her station and how it paid unexpected rewards. And we saw how much she cared for women's suffrage for all races and finding a place in New York society. Her journey was a contrast with Bertha Russell's and it showed her at a very better place in her life than across the street.

Baranski, if anything, is owed more recognition from the Emmys then the more likely nominee from this show Carrie Coon: she has been at the center of two brilliant dramas before The Gilded Age and received no Emmys for The Good Wife and no nominations for The Good Fight.  I'm not convinced Baranski can prevail in what is still going to be a formidable field of leads: there are both Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon from The Morning Show ahead of her and Ella Purnell could move in ahead even before we count the Zendaya of it all. But she deserves a seat at the table even, as we found out at the end of the season, if she's not at the head of it.

Carrie Coon, The Gilded Age

There was a time – not that long ago – when it seemed that Carrie Coon couldn't get an Emmy nomination if her life depended on it. Now she's likely to return to the Emmys as a nominee for the third consecutive year and for the second time for her second iconic role for an HBO classic.

In Season 3 we watched as Bertha Russell's rise in New York society for the first time clashed with her relationship with everyone she loved. She forced her daughter into a marriage with a duke for her own status, against the will of her husband and her children. This put a wall between her and George that she was never able to overcome and at the end of the season she had lost her husband. In addition her son Larry has turned against her and while her daughter might have power in her marriage now, it's unclear if she'll ever forgive her.

For the first time with Bertha we find ourselves asking the question: "For what shall it profit a woman if she gains the world and loses her entire soul?" Bertha has been doing this since the series began but with each season as she has climbed the ladder she has become less sympathetic. The main reason we've rooted for her is because she's a woman in a man's world but it doesn't change the fact that her actions are just as bad as those we've seen any man do any drama, particularly moving people as chess pieces to achieve her ends. Coon has been constantly watchable during this period but with each season our sympathy for her has been more tested and it has been one of the great performances in her already superb career.

Coon has already been nominated for the Critics Choice Award and the Astras and given the Emmys propensity for 'once you're in, you're in" she's certain to get her third consecutive nomination. Her odds of winning against this field are still remote – but she was the favorite to win for The White Lotus last year and she was upset. They do owe her.

 

Keri Russell, The Diplomat

It was a surprise – albeit a delightful one – when Keri Russell managed to win in this category at this years Actor's.  For someone whose been a fan of Russell for nearly thirty years across three classic dramas it's an award that she's long overdue.

Every decade it seems that Keri Russell manages to create an iconic character for the new decade: Felicity at the turn of the millennium, Elizabeth Jennings in the 2010s, and now Kate Wyler for the 2020s. If there's a common thread between these incredible characters it is how each time there's an incredible thorough professional determined to move forward no matter the cost to her as a woman and a personal life. And that's particularly true with Kate Wyler as she has come to realize that there is an international conspiracy at the highest levels of government, involving the Prime Minister, the now President of the United States and her husband, who's just become the Vice President a job she spent the first two seasons being groomed for even though she never wanted it. Now more frightened for her country then ever and increasingly being pulled between the Western alliances darker initiatives Russell keeps trying to get to the truth in a world that not only doesn't want it discovered but in fact might not survive if it came out, something Kate herself knows better than anyone. She spent Season 3 increasingly walking the corridors of power leading to a conspiracy that might bring down the Republic in ways Shonda Rhimes can only dream of. No one knows what will happen next, not even Kate herself.

Like her husband Matthew Rhys Russell has spent her career being ludicrously underrecognized for her work in extraordinary TV. It seems like the rest of the world has caught up with how good her husband is this year (see Best Limited Series). The question is whether Russell can get an Emmy herself.  The SAG Award showed its possible. Can it happen in a crowded field?

 

Rhea Seehorn, Plur1bus

It wasn't quite as big a travesty as to her colleagues in Better Call Saul but the fact that Rhea Seehorn only got two Emmy nominations and no awards for her work as Kim Wexler is worthy of a class action suit. In the leadup to the Emmys for this year it really seems like the world is trying to make up for it. It helps that Plur1bus looks like its just as much a masterpiece and that Seehorn is absolutely blowing everybody away.

Carol Sturka is nobody's idea of a heroine, least of all herself. She hates even the people who read her romance novels on a regular basis, she doesn't like anyone else and the only person she tolerates is her lover – who its clearly could barely stand her. Now aliens have invaded Earth and she is one of only twelve people so far who seems to have free will. This is bad enough, what's worse is that all of the hive mind seems only determined to make the world a better happier place – and that bothers her even more.  Now she finds that she has to be the savior of humanity – and she knows she's the worst person to do it.

Plur1bus is centered on Seehorn in a way that no series today – perhaps no drama in decades – has been centered around a single individual. She's the only familiar face in the first four episodes and there's only one other regular who shows up in as many episodes (we'll get to them). Seehorn has to play Carol not just as the only person who can figure out what the hell the hive mind is doing but she has to do it playing someone that even under the most horrible and horrendous of circumstances, the viewer still has trouble liking because she clearly can't even like herself that much. That Seehorn somehow manages to make you root for her every step of the way is a triumph to both her as an actress and to Gilligan and his writers for creating her.

Seehorn has won practically every acting award in sight leading up to the Emmys: the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards and even genre awards like the Saturn.  At the moment she ranks as the favorite to finally win her first Emmy for her work in Plur1bus. Those of you who've read my columns know just how badly I want her to win. And I hope like hell it happens.

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

Kaitlin Olson, High Potential

It's taken long enough but the rest of the world is catching up with Kaitlin Olson. She's currently the frontrunner for Guest Actress in a Comedy for her astonishing work as DJ in Hacks for which she's been nominated three times before and where two other actresses have won previously. So I think it would be more than fitting if Olson was given a chance to double dip for his exceptional work in High Potential not just a great showcase for Olson but the biggest hit ABC and network TV have had in years.

Like such comic talents as Bob Odenkirk and Niecy Nash before here Olson has tweaked her comic persona just enough to make Morgan the cleaning woman whose intelligence has given her a gift that makes her the LAPD's greatest hidden asset. And in Season 2 Olson did more to make Morgan another in a long and thankfully growing list of positive female leads at the center of so many great network dramas, including Kathy Bates for Matlock. Morgan continues to do everything they ask of her and more, solve impossible crimes, try to be a good mother to her children, a good friend to so many of her colleagues, a good co-parent with her ex-husband and try to solve the mystery of what happened to her first husband who disappeared fifteen years ago and now seems to be at the center of a dark and frightening conspiracy that she is both drawn to and repelled by. There's never a moment watching Morgan that you never don't relate to her or don't like her, and in an era where intelligence and expertise are being undercut at every level there's something wonderful about a heroine who's way of thinking is an asset that is celebrated.

Olson was nominated for the second consecutive year for the Astras for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama along with every frontrunner I've listed above. There are other actresses who are more showy in splashier successes and others more likely to get the nomination. But I keep turning to Olson's work as Morgan as the kind of character TV needs right now. If ever there were such a thing as a lovable longshot its Olson and this show.

 

Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama. This one's going to be a tough one and I don't just mean based on how many nominees from The Pitt show up.

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