Monday, June 22, 2026

My Predictions (And Hopes) For the 2026 Emmy Nominations, Week 1, Part 1: Outstanding Drama Series

 

A little precursor. I feel no guilt in excluding the final season of Euphoria because it was such a huge disappointment to critics that the odds of it being nominated for Best Drama are next to non-existent. Some thing it will contend for acting awards but I can leave it out with a clear conscience. Besides as you'll see it's not like I'm excluding HBO from this year.

For my eight nominees for Best Drama I look through streaming, cable, and network television. With two of the major contenders from last year (Severance and The White Lotus) ineligible a lot of room will be available in the supporting acting categories and some new faces will almost certainly be seen across the board as well as some familiar ones. Here are my picks

 

The Diplomat (Netflix)

How do you deal with the fact the Vice President might have committed treason? Well if you're the writers of The Diplomat, you kill the acting President off and then make her President before Kate Wyler can tell him. Then you make that fact at the center of the third season. And as you'd expect you then basically blow up the Wyler marriage.

Keri Russell has been the consummate professional as she has learned of an international conspiracy involving the UK prime minister and the Vice President across two seasons. Now in the third season under the new administration (headed by the incredible Alison Janney) the show decides to blow up the premise guiding the first two seasons. Kate was supposedly being groomed to become the new vice president; now its Hal (Rufus Sewell, as inscrutable as ever) who ends up getting the job without having to try. That Kate never wanted the job in the first place is something she only admits to herself, that she has no intention of following her husband back to the states sets up another, darker scenario.

With Kate still in London, even more nefarious schemes are afoot. It quickly becomes clear her husband is just as capable of espionage as anyone else and rather then trying to deal with the rot, he's more than willing to get his hands dirty on the inside. By the end of the third season its just as clear that Kate may not just have to turn against her country, but her husband – and one wonders which will be the harder blow.

For a series that deals with dark matters The Diplomat can be surprisingly entertaining. It has always put itself closer as an heir to The West Wing and it keeps doubling down on this with each new addition. (The First Gentleman is Bradley Whitford, for one.) And it moves at a flowing pace, led by its incomparable star. Russell was as surprised as anyone when she won the prize for Best Female Actor in a Drama. Like the character she's played she's long overdue recognition as is the show she's a  part of.

 

The Gilded Age (HBO)

I was understandably over the moon when the second season of The Gilded Age was nominated for eight Emmys back in 2024. And by the time we reached the third season last summer the rest of the critical community and America at large seems to have realized, yes, this is one of the best shows on television.

We spent most of the third season watching the marriage between Bertha and George completely unravel as not just her husband but the entire Russell family realized how ruthless and determined the matriarch was to earn her place in New York society. By the end of the third season Bertha had managed this but had more or less lost her entire family; her daughter overseas, her husband leaving her, her son unwilling to accept just how monstrous his mother was.

Across the street a minor power play went off as Ada became the mistress of the Van Rijn household while Agnes spent the season struggling to find a place for her in New York. By the end of the season Agnes had accepted her role in it and a new accord had been struck. And as Marian and Larry spent the third season slowly dancing around each other before finding there own happiness the two households will soon be together more frequently – and one wonders to see who will come out on top.

The Gilded Age is one of the best series on any service because of the extraordinary writing and the way it looks at the past to find evidence of a better future. Increasingly we saw contemporary issues involving women's suffrage, the place of divorced women in society, accord between the races, the struggles between class and the poor and the way that violence can interject now matter how wealthy one's family is. But it is also one of the most delightful shows with some of the best dialogue I've heard with nary a four letter word issued.

There are quite a few other HBO series who I will mention here and some that I've not who might overcome it. But The Gilded Age remains divine, a demonstration of how HBO is still the gold standard for TV

 

Matlock (CBS)

I advocated for this series for Best Drama last year and was disappointed that the Emmys chose to give it just a single nomination.  But in its second season it was just as worthy of nominations as any of the dramas on this list and more than represents what network television is capable of.

During the second season Madeline Kingston spent the first half battling with Olivia for leverage over the startling revelation that Julian was responsible for hiding the documents that she spent all of last season searching for. After half a season the two finally came to the accommodation that they needed each other and more importantly that their friendship could survive it. Then Julian learned the truth about Maddy 'Matlock' deception and spend much of that period first in resistance, then willing to fight to bring the truth to light.

While looking at Jacobson Moore as it went through a time of transition the writers showed slowly the rot in the firm was deeper then Senior (Beau Bridges) and eventually reached the point where the whole firm was so deeply embedded it that there seemed no way out – until at the last moment Julian was willing to prove his selflessness. This led to a reset that will shake up the series in a way that I haven't seen done so well since the days of The Good Wife.

Matlock is superb in every way that counts: as a legal procedural that  is a case of the week, as a subtle serialized drama, as an exploration of the ties of family, as a way of showing how addiction gets in deep and leaves trauma long after those are dead, showing that the bond between married people doesn't go away after half a century and most endearingly to me, showing that the obstacles that divide generations is not overcome. In this Matlock is to drama what Hacks and Only Murders is to comedy.

Kathy Bates is certain to get her second consecutive Best Actress in a Drama nomination but there should be nominees for the supporting cast as well as the extensive guest cast. I concede that there are better shows that I'm excluding but there are few that are more complete and more entertaining and I'm fine with that.

 

Paradise (Hulu)

Paradise was one of the sleeper critical hits of 2025, deservedly nominated for Best Drama and three other acting Emmys. Set in a bunker after a cataclysmic event nearly wipes out humanity Dan Fogler used a murder mystery to tell a deep and fascinating saga about humanity after the apocalypse.

In the second season he expands the world beyond the bunker by showing us what Xavier (the incomparable Sterling K. Brown) found after he left in search of his wife who he learned at the end of the first season is still alive. He spent much of the second season exploring the world afterwards, checking for survivors in Graceland and finding a new path forward to return and bring the family together.

Inside the bunker things got worse. Sinatra (Julianne Nicholson) made it clear to the voices in her head that her plans had never been out of the bunker. Those around her began to wonder if she'd lost her mind, as the power struggle between her inner circle became even more deadly. They were confronted when the outside world came knocking, forcing a greater and harder struggle that led to reunions and in the season finale a complete destruction of everything that had been build – and a set up for the third and final season.

In his follow-up series to This is Us Dan Fogler has created another mind-bending, chronology jumping yet nevertheless soulful series one that shows him as one of the greatest writers in the last decade. I don't know what's coming for Season 3 but  as always I'm glad to be along for the ride.

 

The Pitt (HBO MAX)

Last year going into Emmy night everyone was sure that Severance would be the big winner. Instead the world was delighted to see The Pitt, which had been a critical and ratings sensation, walk away with five Emmys including Best Drama.

In its second season, taking place ten months after the first, we follow Dr. Robby (the incomparable Noah Wyle) on July 3rd right before he's supposed to go on sabbatical. It's clear from the moment he shows up that Robby is not the same man he was ten months ago and that he hasn't dealt with the trauma that led him to the meltdown that he had in the midst of the mass casualty last year. Following him in real time in the extraordinary fifteen hour break down we watch what is, for the most part, another awful, no good, very bad day Robby and the staff at the Pitt.  And slowly the problems begin to double down,  a cyber attack hits the hospital, there's a collapse at the water slide, old patients begin to die; some familiar faces show up.

And yet its clear the biggest crises are going on within everyone. Dr. Langdon (Patrick Ball) is on his first shift from rehab and almost no one, least of all Robby, can look him in the eye. Mel's dealing with a deposition and it has her nervous. Dana's back for her first shift in months and she's a lot punchier than before. The staffers are dealing with crises that they consider horrible. And worst of all as the day progresses its clear Robby has no patience for the hospital or the staffers and the crap they're dealing with. This reveals itself in the final hours when one of Robby's riding buddies for the sabbatical shows up, is suffering from something worse then shortness of breath – and we finally learn where Robby's going and why the fact he rode into work without a helmet is the least troubling thing about him.

The Pitt goes into the fall campaign the odds-on favorite to repeat for Best Drama as well as to be the biggest winner on Emmy night in a few months. The only question is how many nominations it will get and how many awards it will win. I myself couldn't be happier that a show like The Pitt not only exists but has become the critical and audience darling of the masses. In a world where so much is uncertain and America is a mess – and the show has more than a few storylines that are a reflection of it – there's something wonderful about a drama that is not about bad people doing bad things but a bunch of professionals doing their best against overwhelming odds, day in, day out.  Where the bad behavior of the characters is not something we associate with a White Male Antihero but a broken man who doesn't know how to heal himself and a bunch of professionals and first responders we can relate to more than any show on television in decades. That is something to celebrate as much as the incredible caliber of the acting and writing.

 

Pluribus (Apple TV)

I've been waiting for Vince Gilligan to get his hooks into an alien invasion show for a quarter of a century.  Now in his first new series since the end of Better Call Saul he reunites with that show's breakout star Rhea Seehorn to create a series that is unlike any other.

Plur1bus almost overnight became one of the most critically and audience adored hit on TV: one of the best new shows of 2025. It deals with an alien invasion of Earth unlike any we've ever seen in recorded history: the alien takeover of the world is seen not as some monstrous horror but a hive mind who only seem here to care and love people – the few that haven't been taken over.  One of the few people left completely unaffected is Carol Sturka (Seehorn) a romance writer who even before the invasion happened was arguably the most unpleasant person on the planet, who only her lesbian companion loved – and who even she seemed unable to deal with at times. Carol's rage was toxic before; now its so powerful it can actually kill millions of the hive mind. And what's worse is that of the precious few survivors she's maybe the only one left who thinks that what's happening is horrible.

In keeping with all things Gilligan Pluribus unfolds with all the touches we're used to from him. Of course it mostly takes place in New Mexico but its also incredibly visual and less dependent on dialogue than almost any series he's done – and he's always been great with long sequences of those. Few scenes have carried more terror as in the Pilot when we see how the aliens first invade and how they manage their takeover, then see the horror of the apocalypse play out – and of course, there's an in-joke that only Gilligan could provide.

He is met by Rhea Seehorn, who is for much of the series eight episodes often the only face of the cast. Seehorn delivers one of the greatest performances of 2025, if not of the decade so far, as Carol. Carol is literally the last person on Earth you'd think of as the savior of humanity, she didn't even like it that much when things were normal. And even now she's the outlier the only person left who wants to bring the world back to the way it was – even though as the story makes very clear, it's almost a paradise. (The idea that you'd have to wipe out humanity to bring about peace on earth has been in Gilligan's head since he made his directorial debut on The X-Files a quarter of a century ago.) What's astonishing about Seehorn's work is that even she admits that she has very few good qualities and that she seems to be doing something no one alive wants – and yet you're still rooting for her to succeed.

Seehorn has already won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award for Best Actress in a Drama and is the heavy favorite to win the Emmy this year. (Admittedly there are some pretty good candidate against her in the show's above.) Plur1bus is as close as any series is to having the possibility to upset The Pitt for Best Drama and while I doubt that I don't pretend that this is show is any less a masterpiece

 

Slow Horses (Apple TV)

For the last two seasons Slow Horses has, like the agents at Slough House itself, the most underestimated performers at the Emmys. In 2024 it upset Shogun's record setting pace to win Best Dramatic Teleplay. Last year it interjected between Severance and The Pitt to win Best Director in a Drama. Now in its most action packed season yet Slough House finds itself dealing with an assassin responsible for a mass shooting, an act of sabotage and the fact that Lady Di has her eye on becoming First Desk and will gladly step over them to get there. When she finally achieves her goal, we'd be unsettled if we didn't know them that well.

Gary Oldman has become one of the great joys to watch as Jackson Lamb, who every year noisily interrupts his busy schedule of getting drunk and breaking wind to reluctantly save London from the most horrible terror attacks possible. Every line out of his mouth is an absolute joy to hear as you know that London's safety is based on a man who cares if people live or die but really doesn't trust the people who work for him to save it. This includes River Cartwright (Jack Lowden0 who always acts before he thinks, Roddy who isn't nearly as clever as he believes and an entire staff who could be efficient at their jobs if they weren't just complete wankers at everything else.

Slow Horses is one of the quiet joys of TV and streaming, a slow grower that has become a fan favorite as well as one of the best shows on any service. It's not as flashy as its co-nominees on Apple TV but it gets the job done, even when its hanging by its fingernails.

 

Task (HBO)

After four seasons of hemming and hawing about doing another season of Mare of Easttown Brad Inglesby decided to do something better. He returned to world of Philadelphia's law enforcement and criminal enterprises but with a completely different story and two different protagonists. And in Task he created the kind of series HBO hasn't had in decades: a show about the working class, cops and criminals and the despair of a failing city.

The first season centered on two characters. The first was Tom Brandis, played with haunting precision by Mark Ruffalo. A former priest turned FBI agent he's spent the last year not dealing with a family trauma of how his foster son killed his wife. He drinks himself to sleep each night, he can barely talk with his own foster daughter or his real one, he's never visited his son in prison. And in the midst of this he's assigned to lead a task force to investigate a series of robberies of a motorcycle gang.

On the other side is Robby, played by Tom Pelphrey. Robby's brother ended up getting murdered by that gang for reasons I won't go into yet and he's spent the last several months robbing stash houses. When a robbery goes wrong and a five year old is left alive Robby chooses to take the child with him instead of doing the easy thing. This sets forth a chain of events that will lead to the deaths of many on both sides of the law and eventually Robby himself though his is far from the last.

This is by far a more ambitious series than Mare was, more invested in things such as nature and spirituality then Inglesby tried to deal with before. But it's also one of the most optimistic series to come out of HBO in the nearly thirty years its been dealing in prestige drama. To be sure there are lots of broken people, bad criminals and law enforcement officials who are on the take. But its also about finding a way to break the cycle of trauma and violence in a way that I'm not used to from HBO dramas or even TV during this century in general. Tom's journey is one of trying to find a way to heal himself after a trauma as much as catching the criminals and we're overjoyed that somehow he's found a way out. When's the last time you felt that way?

Task was renewed for a second season and it will probably air some time in 2027.  The show itself has already been nominated for multiple best drama awards along with acting nominations for Ruffalo and Pelphrey. I don't know what the future is for HBO but as long as their shows like Task as part of it, I feel better about it.

 

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

The Audacity (AMC)

I spent a lot of time reflecting on this choice. It was tempting to go with the fourth seasons of Dark Winds or Will Trent. But in the end I decided to go with one of the most promising newcomers so far in 2026.

The Audacity was maligned almost before it got off the ground. As one of the characters says: "Silicon Valley changed the world but so did the bubonic plague" and she could be speaking for the majority of people.  But despite that baggage this is one of the most engaging and original shows AMC has done in a years, a show about a group of emotionally stunted adults who are Masters of the Universe but can't socialize in a group setting and a psychiatrist who cares more about making money off them then she does helping them. It's surprising how entertaining this can be.

Billy Magnussen is a revelation as Duncan, a tech sensation who isn't nearly as smart as he thinks he is and everyone around him knows it, a man who knows he's hated by everybody but who seems determined to keep trying to prove it. Around him are a cast of characters, both grownup and teenagers and its both frightening and encouraging that the dysfunctional student body of a high school are for more self-aware of the world then their parents are. Every single one of the parents is more interested in appearances then actually doing things, they will all say good things but sell out their dreams for an IPO, who think that because they play as soldiers they know more than actual soldiers. It's a mess, but it’s a fun mess.

I could never get into HBO's Silicon Valley which looked at the same people and moguls with a satiric vibe. The Audacity takes itself just a bit more seriously and that's more than enough for me to recognize its quality. There have been signs that some awards show are taking it seriously – the Astras nominated it for Best Drama – so why shouldn't the Emmys show some audacity of their own?

 

Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama. Relatively speaking I'm confident in my choices even with the limitations.

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