I Try to Predict theh 2026 Astra TV Awards, Part 2: Drama

 

As always the Astras really hears the beat of a different drummer when it comes to drama and your mileage of respect for them will vary depending upon your tastes.

If you think shows like The Boys, Outlander and From receive too little recognition then the Astras are your cup of tea. If, however, you like The Gilded Age and Slow Horses and believe Pluribus is a brilliant show then the Astras may leave you a bit cold.  I'm in the happy medium because there's recognition for Matlock and The Audacity and nothing for Your Friends & Neighbors and Knight of the Seven Kingdoms.

So here we go.

 

BEST DRAMA SERIES

I'm guessing this will go to one of the four nominees that overlap with the Emmys picks for Drama: The Diplomat, Paradise, The Pitt and Pluribus. For the record last year the Astras picked Severance over The Pitt so I can't say with confidence they'll pick it this time.

My personal preference is for The Pitt and it will do very well here. But don't rule out Pluribus prevailing in this category: in their short history the Astras have given Best Drama to an Apple TV show three different times: Servant in their inaugural awards and Severance both seasons it was on the air. Personally I'd be fine if Pluribus were to win.

Should Win: Pluribus/The Pitt.

Will Win: The Pitt.

 

BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

A very strong field with four of the five nominees for the Emmys in this category along with some deserving nominees. Always glad to see Walton Goggins and Ramon Rodriguez here.

My personal preference at this point is that Sterling K. Brown should get it for Season 2 of Paradise. But I have no problem with Noah Wyle winning for The Pitt. He's absolutely going to go back to back at the Emmys this year and I'm fine with that.

Should Win: Brown.

Will Win: Wyle.

 

BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA

This field did pick all five nominees for the Emmys, including Chase Infiniti. And much as I'd like to see Kathy Bates win for Matlock or Carrie Coon win for anything this is going to be a showdown between Keri Russell for The Diplomat and Rhea Seehorn for Pluribus.

I think Seehorn wins this by a hair and it's not just because of the Golden Globes. The Astras like her a lot: Seehorn won Supporting Actress in a Cable Drama for the final two seasons of Better Call Saul when the Emmys were falling all over Julia Garner and Jennifer Coolidge.  I'll be pulling for Seehorn at the Emmys but we'll see where it starts. (Of course the Astras has also given Keri Russell a win in this category the first season this show was one the air…but I'm still comfortable with my pick.)

Should Win/Will Win: Seehorn

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA

The Astras only nominated two cast members from The Pitt and no one from Pluribus. On the plus side they did nominate Jason Ritter for Matlock and Bill Skarsgard from Welcome to Derry. It balances it out.

My personal preference is for Tom Pelphrey for his extraordinary work in Task. But I think Patrick Ball will pull out a win for The Pitt, mainly because they'll be less division then there's going to be at the Emmys. I'm pretty sure Pelphrey will prevail at the Emmys but that's later on.

Should Win: Pelphrey.

Will Win: Ball.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA

No Karolina Wydra or Julianne Nicholson. On the plus side we do have Christine Baranski for The Gilded Age and Emilia Jones for Task. Balance.

My personal preference among those wonderful actresses from The Pitt is Taylor Dearden and her incredible work as Mel. Now Katherine LaNasa didn't win in this category last year; it went to Isabella Merced for The Last of Us who was even nominated. This is a category the Astras could go for someone who won't show up at all – and Baranski has won in this category before.

I think it'll go to Baranski or Allison Janney for The Diplomat. But either way it’s a great group.

Should Win: Baranski/Dearden.

Will Win: Janney (?)

 

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA

Since Jeff Kober wasn't nominated (no one from The Pitt was) I think this one will go to Bradley Whitford for The Diplomat. He's one of the only Emmy nominees in this category.

 

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA

Easy. Shailene Woodley wins for Paradise on her way to her first Emmy.

 

BEST BROADCAST NETWORK ENSEMBLE

Will Trent has dominated this category for a while. But I'm giving the edge to Matlock.

 

BEST CABLE DRAMA ENSEMBLE

No Emmy nominees. I'll go with Welcome to Derry.

 

BEST STREAMING ENSEMBLE

The Pitt, no question.

 

BEST DIRECTING IN A DRAMA

All right. This is going to come down to The Gilded Age, Pluribus or The Pitt. And since Pluribus involves by far the most elaborate direction for its success I'm betting they go for this. (For the record the Emmy in this category last year went to Slow Horses and the Astras didn't even nominate the show. In fact they gave Best Director to Will Trent which makes me love them all the more.)

 

BEST WRITING IN A DRAMA

Much as I'd like to see Task or High Potential win, it's the same showdown as above. The Pitt won in this category last year but the momentum is building for Pluribus. I'm going to give the barest of edges to Pluribus but this is a category where anything can happen. (And remember the Emmy ended up going to Andor in this category.)

 

And that's it for Drama. Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding Limited Series/TV Movie as well as other ephemera. (For the record I think the Astras did better here than the Emmys overall in terms of nominations.)