Tuesday, August 18, 2026

My Predictions for the 2026 Emmys, Week 1, Part 2: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy

 

 

With Seth Rogen ineligible we are guaranteed for the second time in this decade to crown a different winner in this category. And despite having ignored Steve Martin and Adam Brody it remains a formidable lineup with quite a few nominees who have yet to receive their due from the Emmys in long careers. Of course they are almost certain to be 'cursed' to lose to one of the greatest actors in TV history receiving his first nomination in this category – but certainly not his last.

Without further ado let's go over the nominees.

 

Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Wonder Man. For Playing: Simon Williams, a smalltime actor trying to land his dream role with a shady government operative. Pro: Unlike the vast majority of the MCU TV universe this series connected with critics and fans because it had a beating heart at its center rather then a show that was designed for Easter eggs. A large part of this had to do with Abdul-Mahteen as Simon, who as we all know managed to win an Emmy for basically being able to do the exact same thing in Watchmen. And because this was a series far more about being a failed actor rather then a superhero origin story it had the ability to connect with critics and audiences. It was a pleasant surprise and Abdul-Mahteen deserves all the credit for getting it there. Con: Even before Season 2 was unexpected cancelled after being renewed Abdul-Mahteen was facing a major obstacle. His nomination was the only one Wonder Man received which cut any real chance he had of winning in an already stacked category down to nearly non-existent. I guess he's now facing where Simon was at the start of his series but he'll get through it.

Steve Carell, Rooster. For Playing: Greg Russo, an author who comes to work at a college campus after his daughter's marriage implodes. Pro: I've seen quite a few episodes of Rooster and I now plan to see it in full when Season 2 begins. In keeping with Bill Lawrence's comedies as a whole, Rooster is a heartfelt show that gets its comedy from human foibles and in its title role Carell actually gets to use his trademark awkwardness, which left me cold as Michael Scott, in a far more tender and friendly fashion. It pays off big time as we see a divorced man on the other side of his fifties facing the fact that he wants to reinvent himself yet again. So he returns to his alma mater and tries to be a better father and professor, all in the same ridiculous ways that make us love everything Lawrence does in the last decade. Carell embraces Greg with a charm and sincerity that I never once sensed in all the time I saw him on The Office and you get a sense of humanity and the knowledge of past mistakes that you keep making despite your best intentions. The fact that Carell has never gotten an Emmy despite eight nominations would seem to make him an overwhelming sentimental favorite. Con: Unfortunately Carell's nomination is the only one Rooster received this year. And as Kathy Bates ended up proving last year, often that means the Emmys chooses to leave you on the outside looking in. Carell must hate the term: "Better Luck Next Time' but in this case it's almost certainly going to be true.

Matthew Rhys, Widow's Bay. (EXPERT'S PICK): For Playing: Tom Loftis, the mayor of Widow's Bay whose trying to turn his island community into the next Martha's Vineyard, right about the time a centuries old cure resurfaces. Pro:  I've been a huge fan of Rhys ever since his incredible work in The Americans and he's been one of the greatest TV actors in the 21st century. But I  never for a moment suspected that he could be as good at comedy as so many veteran actors that he displayed. His Tom is a wonder to watch even in only the seven episodes that are available for eligibility: someone who is determined to make his town that he loathes with every fiber of his being a resort attraction and denies all good sense and his own eyes that there is a huge supernatural presence until his second supernatural encounter with a Sea Hag. Then of course he goes completely in the opposite direction, ending up on a mushroom trip that has to be experienced to be believed and then having a conversation with the town founder even though he's been dead for over three centuries (as one does). His incredible work is one of the biggest reasons this show became the cultural phenomena it did so quickly and why he made Emmy history this year (we'll get to that) but why he might be able to join a select crowd of those who've won in both comedy and drama in the same acting category. (And two of them are nominees this year!) Rhys can never get enough recognition in my eyes and I'm fine with it. Con: The only thing that might work against him is the sentimentality factor combined with some of the incredible comic performances in this category which I'm going to get too below.

Jason Segel, Shrinking. For Playing: Jimmy, a psychiatrist facing an empty nest and the urge to start dating now that his professional life is back in order. Pro: Segel managed to win in this category at the Astras this weekend and despite the glaring absence of Rhys, he's more than a deserving candidate. His work has been a masterpiece of comic awkwardness mixed with trauma for two seasons and in Season 3 they let Jimmy have less trauma and be more awkward as he found himself very gradually starting to date again with so many hiccups before he ended up with someone who might be his potential soul mate. We saw him increasingly take on the role of a grownup, deal with his relationship with Paul, making amends and being there for his neighbors and trying to find a way to heal decades long grudges with his own father. Combined with the fact that despite having been in TV for twenty five years he has yet to win an Emmy (why?!) he's more than overdue. Con: For the second straight year Segel's work has been overshadowed by another male lead in an Apple TV comedy. I think its inevitable Segel will win in this category but I don't see it happening this year.  

Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building (MY PICK, DARK HORSE) For Playing: Oliver Putnam, a podcaster trying to solve the murder of a doorman in his building while being forced to face his own shortcomings. Pro: Short is the only lead who has been nominated every season he's been eligible and while this speaks in part to the flaws of the Emmys it also shows just how much he still has it after nearly half a century in the business. This season showed more sides to Oliver then we've gotten in five years: newlywed with a hot wife overseas pursuing her dream, longtime tenant of the Arconia facing just how little his neighbors think of him, and a deep dive into his backstory of his childhood which explained a lot about why he is who he is. As always he remained the egomaniacal bastard we all love, the good friend we know he's capable of being and the competent crime solver he can be – all while being hysterically funny every moment he's onscreen. He's gotten a disproportionate amount of recognition from the Emmys compared to his constant brilliance and combined with so many of the personal tragedies he's undergone recently, sentimentality could push him over the top. Con: The Emmys just ain't sentimental anymore.  They seem more willing to recognize performers based on things such as merit rather then legacy and that's actually a virtue that I've come to respect  over the last twenty years or so. Much as I'd love to see him up there, I just can't see it happening this year.

 

PREDICTION: Rhys will triumph in a landslide. I have no problem with that and I'm guessing neither will his co-nominees.

 

Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy. Now we all know who's going to win but  I will go through the motions because it is an honor to lose to Jean Smart.

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