Thursday, August 27, 2026

My Predictions for the 2026 Emmys Week 2, Day 4: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama

 

As is frequently the case in this category and the next, the more things change, the more they stay the same.

The change: there are no nominees this year who were nominated last year and only two who were nominated two years ago. The same: as has been the case for at least the past ten years at least one show has a plurality of nominations.

The difference between this year and quite a few in the past is that I'm more than fine if The Pitt ends up with a winner, as I wasn't with other HBO dramas in the past. (Cough: Succession, Game of Thrones.) So I'm going to mix it up with this category and Supporting Actress. I'm going to list the expert's pick, dark horse and my pick. But I'm also going to list my pick for The Pitt because while all of the performances are excellent in both cases I differ with the experts.

All clear? Hopefully it will be. Here are the nominees.

Patrick Ball, The Pitt (EXPERTS PICK) For Playing: Dr. Langdon, returning to the ER for his first shift after six months in rehab. Pro: Let's get this out of the way. Ball absolutely should have been nominated last year for his incredible work as Langdon and he more than matched in Season 2. This was a more humble Langdon then last year, a man who had learned his lessons and was trying to atone to those he knew he'd wronged, particularly Robby who made it very clear he didn't trust him no matter how well he did. It's clear of all the characters we met last season he's come the closest to rebuilding his life after the trauma he went through and we can see the doubts he has in every action he takes. We see him trying to be a good person, knowing of his flaws and showing signs of him in other ways (the bond between him and Mel is already one of the series' deepest) and we know it's a long way back but he is taking the necessary steps. He's already managed to win the Astra for Best Supporting Actor in a Drama and all things are set for a triumph in this category. Con: The exact same thing could have been said about Walton Goggins and we all saw how that worked out for him. When there are many qualified nominees from a single show in a category the vote splitting will often hurt one more than qualified nominee over the others. HBO shows can avoid this at times (Peter Dinklage for Game Of Thrones, Matthew MacFayden for Succession his last two nominations) but it can work against you a lot. This is true, to be clear, for the other two nominees from The Pitt as well.

Billy Crudup, The Morning Show. For Playing: Cory Ellison, a former TMS executive dealing with increasing personal struggles. Pro: Crudup has won two Emmys in this category before and in a series with two of the greatest actresses in TV history, it says a lot that Cory has become for many fans the real star of Morning Show. In fact he is the only actor who has been nominated every season it has been on the air.  As Cory spent much of the series trying to find his new path he was faced with a horrible tragedy at the end of the series that led to him giving into his addiction in a big way in the season finale. As The Morning Show heads into its final season Crudup is finally getting the recognition he deserves for thirty years as one of our most underrated actor. Con: In 2024 The Morning Show was one of the most nominated series by the Emmys. In 2026 Crudup's nomination is the sole one The Morning Show earned. Aside from the obstacles facing you if you are the only nominee from your series, there's also the fact that The Morning Show has always been on the border between peak TV and hatewatching ever since it debuted and The Emmys have rarely been as generous to it as other great dramas of the period. (There's a possibility it did so well for Season Three because of the aftereffects of the 2023 strike in the industry.) Throw in the two Emmys he already has and there's no realistic chance of him winning.

Shawn Hatosy, The Pitt. For Playing: Dr. Jack Abbott, starting his shift early as his sideline mixes with his day. Pro: When Hatosy chose to submit for Best Supporting Actor in a Drama instead of Guest Actor – where he deservedly won last year – some had doubts. He only appeared in five episodes compared to the fifteen of his co-nominees. But Jack Abbott has a way of making his presence known in the few episodes you see him, particularly in every scene he has with Noah Wyle's Robby. This was true in the season finale which almost certainly the episode he submitted for consideration in which he finally calls Robby out on his BS and makes it clear that there is a reason for him to live. It was dark and depressing and incredibly funny at the same time. And that last line – "I'm listed as your emergency contacted and I do not want to be contacted' – speaks for so much that you can't help but love. There's also the history involved as Hatosy could be one of a handful of actors to win in two different categories for playing the same character. (One of them was nominated this year, by the way). I would be fine if he did that. Con: Same problem as Ball, compounded by the fact some voters may have issues with giving a smaller role to someone from this category whose more qualified. Not saying it won't happen, just saying they might.

Gerran Howell, The Pitt (MY PICK FOR The Pitt) For Playing: Dr. Whitaker, no longer the fresh-faced newbie from the first season. Pro: I was overjoyed when Howell was nominated in this category as I'd been pulling for him the most over frontrunners like Ball and Hatosy. In a very short time its clear Whitaker is Huckleberry no more. (Though every so often you get a sign of it.) He clearly has learned the lessons Robby taught him in the past year, and he's clearly got the mentorship down with so many of the other younger doctors then he did when we first met him. He can give as good as he gets, he clearly has more compassion then anyone currently on staff and there's a genuine heart to him that you see far more often then any other character. I feel more optimistic about Whitaker at this point then his fellow new residents and I'd love to see him win. Con: I'll be honest, even if it weren't for the divide in this category, I just don't see Howell winning. His role just isn't as flashy as some of those who win awards in this category and that's what tends to win in my lifetime.

Jack Lowden, Slow Horses. For Playing: River Cartwright, a Slow Horse battling a terror threat on London and increasing personal difficulties. Pro: I was overjoyed to see Lowden back in the ranks after being cast aside by The White Lotus and Severance last year. His work in Season 4 was absolutely the kind of role the Emmys should have nominated. In a series that is dominated by some of the greatest actors in history and who Lowden spends most of his screen time with its astonishing just how good River is. It's clear he's by far the most competent agent Slough House is, ridiculously overqualified to get back in MI-5. Much to the frustration of Lamb, he still gives a damn about doing the right thing and it clearly bugs the hell out of him. Lowden is absolutely going to be an action hero in his own right some day and he's clearly one of the great forces on this show. Con: I'll be honest, I can see almost anyone else in the cast winning an Emmy during this show's run but Lowden. This is the kind of role that never gets recognized by the Emmys these days because River is so duty bound and a sucker at the same time. His energy and activity are almost annoying for the viewer despite being the engine for this show. It's a superb performance, not gonna win this year, probably not ever gonna win. But Lowden works at Slough House. He gets it.

Tom Pelphrey, Task (DARK HORSE, MY PICK) For Playing: Robbie Prendergast, a working man robbing a biker gang for complicated reasons. Pro: Not gonna lie I've been pulling for Pelphrey ever since I saw Task last September. I've had immense respect for him as a performer for a very long time. He's been acting for over 20 years and has been in some superb shows but America only became aware of him five years ago during his stint as the doomed Ben on Ozark. He's starred in a lot of underrated series so it's hard to say his work as Robbie is his best performance. But it's an incredible one just the same. Robbie is a working man his entire life who has turned to a life of crime out of a sense of vengeance for his dead brother. He doesn't have the stomach for violence and murder so when a young boy is found at a stash house he doesn't kill but takes him home to his family. This sets off a chain of events that leads to the death of his friends, the isolation of his sister and finally a situation that leads to him dying in the back of a police car where the FBI agent who he held hostage an hour ago tries to save his life. It's an incredible performance because Robbie isn't doing this for him, he isn't good at it, and he hates how it makes him feel. And in that long conversation between him and Tom where Brandis thinks these are his last moments, you can see Robbie struggling with what he knows he must do and his genuine goodness – and that goodness wins out. I would really like to see him win. Con: There's a good chance he will be overpowered by The Pitt.

Carlos-Manuel Vesga, Pluribus. For Playing: His name is Manousos. He is not one of them. He wishes to save the world. (I'm sorry I couldn't help it.) Pro: He doesn't say a word in our introduction to him in the fourth episode. We don't see him again until the sixth. And honestly he only really has much of a presence in two of the nine episodes in the first season. Much of his dialogue is in Spanish and he says very little the rest of the way. And yet for all of that you get a very clear picture of who Manousos is by the time the season ends: meticulous, determined, with a clear sense of ethics. And it tells you something that by the time he finally shares the screen with Carol (in a first meeting that mostly takes under an umbrella over Google translate on a cell phone) that you clearly think you know him as well as a character whose essentially been onscreen the entire series. There are few moments of self-determination as Manousos marching through the Isthmus of Panama, repeating over and over "My name is Manousos. I am not one of them. I wish to save the world." Carol has sent a message of what humanity is and he is making clear what it means to him. It's a bravura work. Con: Of all the nominations in this category I suspect Vesga's was the biggest surprise as no other awards show and recognized him. It's a great performance but I'm pretty sure it's not going to win.

 

My Prediction: I think the momentum is shifting to Pelphrey in the voting. Still don't rule out the possibility Patrick Ball will prevail.

 

Tomorrow I will wrap things up this week with Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama as well as the other major awards in this category.

 

 

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