Tuesday, August 25, 2026

My Predictions for the 2026 Emmys, Week 2, Day 2: Outstanding Lead Actor In A Drama

 

Ever since Bryan Cranston managed his historic three-peat for Breaking Bad every year since 2011 there has been a different winner in this category. That pattern will almost certainly be broken on Emmy night this year. That doesn't change the fact that this remains as always an incredibly strong category.

Furthermore this year's crop demonstrate how much this decade is different from the 2010s or even a few years ago. For the first time in memory the antiheroes are basically outnumbered by hardworking professionals trying to do there best in a complicated world. And even the two leads who might bear the title 'difficult men' are more in the grey area that those of Succession or Better Call Saul. It's a promising trend I hope continues particularly as they are played by some of the greatest actors of this century.

Here are the nominees.

Note: Since the frontrunner is so overwhelming ranked at this point I won't bother with a Dark Horse here.

 

Sterling K. Brown, Paradise. (MY FAVORITE) For Playing: Xavier Collins, trekking through a post-apocalypse America to find his wife. Pro: To be clear I am perfectly fine with the overwhelming favorite in this category. And as you'll see all of these nominees are great. But having seen all of their work I have to give more credit to Brown for his exceptional performance in Season 2. In the season finale Sinatra expresses to Collins: "You may have been the only good person here." And while that's not true the fact that it seems that Xavier may be the one who ends up saving the world (or already has?) absolutely makes sense. Ever since the show began and even more so in Season Xavier is someone who even in the aftermath of an apocalypse still has a moral code. We see when he tries to protect children who are hiding from raiders even though he's brutally injured, we see it when he decides to help Annie despite everything and then takes care of her baby even after her death, we see it in the way he's willing to do anything to first get to Terri and then save his family all over again, the way he seems able to bring people together without trying that hard. There has been a rise of good leads during this decade as opposed to the antihero but Brown was always ahead of the curve as early as his work on People Vs. O.J. Simpson and its just as true now. I know he already has his share of Emmys but I want him to get one more. Con: You get the feeling that Brown will win his Emmy in the final season of Paradise. Besides he's not Noah Wyle.

 

Gary Oldman, Slow Horses. For Playing: Jackson Lamb, the head of Slough House once again reluctantly trying to stop a terror threat with a group of agents he refuses to like. Pro: Oldman had nothing left to prove by the time he took the role of Jackson Lamb in Slow Horses and its been clear since it debuted he's absolutely having the time of his life. Every line out of his mouth is almost always one of the most hysterical putdowns imaginable, every sloppy meal he eats, every time he's collapsed hungover, hell, his breaking wind actually seems to be a great punctuation mark. And just as London facing the most horrible terror threat its faced yet in five seasons you can just see Lamb rolling his eyes every time his Slow Horses make it clear they have to do something because he knows he's going to have to pull their asses out of the fire, even though they're always right. His utter chaos and slovenly appearance always hides the fact he is the smartest man in every room he's in and you get the feeling he actually resents it more times then not. Oldman is a delight to watch every season and that's never going to change. Con: Eventually Oldman is going to win in this category. Perhaps by Season 10 or 11. Just not this year and its not just because he's not Noah Wyle.

 

Mark Ruffalo, Task. For Playing: Tom Brandis, a former priest turned FBI agent heading a task force while simultaneously dealing with a family tragedy. Pro: When Task finished its first season I went out of my way to praise it for being the first show I'd seen on HBO in a long, long time where the lead was a male character who was basically a good man. It was clear that the horrible tragedy had left Tom broken perhaps beyond repair. Yet being called back to active duty ended up saving him. As he and his battered task force found themselves investigating the series of robberies led against a biker club that led to a young boy being abducted it was striking to see someone who was actually capable of goodness in his soul, even as Tom tracked the man responsible. By the last two episodes it was clear Tom had managed to recover professionally, by the end of the series he had found himself personally yet again. And when you watch the final images of Season 1 you see something I don't remember on an HBO drama in a long time: you've seen a broken man come back to becoming a good one. Its an incredible performance led by one of our greatest actors and a personal best for Ruffalo in a very long time. Con: I mention all of this because, as is with Hannah Einbinder, I'm able to separate myself from Ruffalo's politics which have always been strident and are increasingly overwhelming the man's skills as an actor. His proselytizing throughout the last year has completely overshadowed his work on Task to the point I don't think he has a chance of ever winning another award. It has nothing to do with him not being Noah Wyle.

 

Rufus Sewell, The Diplomat. For Playing: Hal Wyler, the new Vice President of the United States who faces the end of his marriage. Pro: Sewell has been one of the great character actors in film and television for nearly thirty years whether playing the original Alexander Hamilton in John Adams or his work in Parade's End or Lord Melbourne in Victoria or his most prominent TV work as John Smith in the Amazon hit The Man in the High Castle. Then he was cast as Hal Wyler, one of the most prominent figures in foreign service for decades always overshadowing his no-nonsense wife Kate and the world finally caught up with him. I suspect the reason it has taken so long for the Emmys to honor him is that they couldn't decide if he was a Supporting Actor (as the Critics Choice Awards and Astras did in 2024) or a lead (as the Critics Choice Awards did this year.) This year the Emmys finally made up their mind it was the latter and it's about damn time. Hal spent most of the first two seasons trying to put his wife forward for vice president making it clear he wanted her to have power. But when he ended up getting minted by the new President it was actually more fitting for the show both politically and to the character. Hal has never been the kind of man who can just be a good husband and sit in the background, he needs to be pulling the strings. Kate has always known this and when she chose not to follow him to DC after being picked it symbolized a break between the two – but it didn't solve his basic problem. At the end of Season Three we're now aware in a way we haven't been just how dangerous Hal can be near power. And Sewell will be just as riveting to watch. Con: Sewell is the biggest surprise in this category by far, most people expected Walton Goggins to be here for Fallout. His work has always been deserving of a nomination but it wouldn't shock me if he went back to Supporting starting in Season 4. This is already a top heavy category. Besides he's not…

 

Noah Wyle, The Pitt (EXPERTS PICK) For Playing: Dr. Mark 'Robby' Rabinowitch, on his last shift before going on sabbatical and not handling it well. Pro: From the moment you see him riding to work on a motorcycle without a helmet, you know in your heart that Dr. Robby is not okay. And it's almost clear from the moment his shift starts that he has a bone to pick with everybody there for either not meeting his professional or personal standards. He manages to barely hold it together when it comes to every patient he deals with but as each hour passes the contempt he's holding for every staffer, combined with several actions he's taking, you get a feeling something darker is going on until he actually confides in Duke just how badly broken he is and that he actually is thinking of taking his own life. Wyle plays every moment he's onscreen as someone who incredibly traumatized and whose ability to mask it is slipping every minute he's there. When he finally breaks down in the season finale in front of Jack Abbott  - the man he saved last season – you wonder if he's capable of repair. I think we're all grateful to know that when The Pitt was renewed for Season 3 Wyle was still part of the cast: even knowing that he was signed on didn't make you feel any less sure. In just two seasons – hell, in just two days! – Wyle has created one of the most memorable characters in television history. He more then deserves to repeat in this category. The fact that he won the Astra for Best Lead Actor in a Drama – as well as every other Best Actor Award between this Emmys and the last one – makes it pretty clear what's going to happen in a few weeks. Con: Not a damn thing.

 

Prediction: After the season he had, it will be nice to see Noah Wyle smiling for a change.

Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama. This one might be closer than you think.

 

 

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