As my readers are well aware this is
the time of year I devote a significant amount of time and energy trying to
predict who will win in this year's Emmy which will occur about a month from
now.
For better or worse (I'd actually say
better) trying to handicap the Emmys has become more difficult in this decade
then before as both the nominees and increasingly the awards have increasingly
had the capacity to surprise, and almost always delightfully so. We found that
out two years ago when Hacks managed one of the biggest upsets in the 21st
century when it defeated what seemed to be the unstoppable juggernaut that was The
Bear for Best Comedy series and we sure as hell found it out last year in
Drama when Severance and The White Lotus were essentially
manhandled by The Pitt. In both cases I was overjoyed and that was true
with many of the smaller winners, including Jeff Hiller for Somebody
Somewhere and the continued superb performance by Slow Horses in writing
two years ago and directing last year.
With that in mind I'm going to try and
up my game. For all categories in all I'm going to do what I did last year: I
will have an Expert's Pick, based on what Gold Derby says and my personal pick.
But I'm also going to include a new category 'Dark Horse' in which I will
highlight a possible under the radar competitor which might manage an upset.
This will be based on the statistics at Gold Derby based on which is currently
running second to the experts pick or where a certain amount of momentum
appears to be building. I have been guilty of this myself last year: I
underestimated the support Tramell Tillman and Katherine LaNasa were getting in
the Supporting Actor and Actress category in a Drama.
In all of these keep in mind that what
the experts say is meaningless to an extent: no one saw Hiller or Britt Lower
pulling off the upsets they did.
So here we go. I'm going to start with
Comedy.
Part 1 Comedy
Abbott
Elementary (ABC)
Pro: In its fifth season Quinta Brunson's
masterpiece showed absolutely no signs of losing momentum. We saw our favorite
school suffer some of its greatest challenges yet: a busted water heater forced
it to relocate to a mall for several episodes, Ava tried to force the student
body to do no homework, and in the season finale it looked like Abbott would be
forced to show down. But like the little engine that could both the school and
the faculty kept plugging away at every single obstacle thrown at them in hysterical
and moving fashion. Increasingly we see the faculty managing to find happiness
in their personal lives as Ava may have found happiness with a working class
man, Barbara embraced the idea of being
a 'glam-ma', Mr. Johnson finding his own custodial better half, and our favorite couple Gregory and Janine
continued to move towards domesticity, with a slight but hysterical hiccup,
that leads us to thing wedding bells might be on the way soon. How can you not
love this show? Con: Despite leading the way to the network sitcom
revival the Emmys have bestowed the status of perennial bridesmaid on this show
for the last three seasons. Unfortunately that's unlikely to change this year.
The
Bear (FX ON
Hulu)
Pro: As the dramedy made its way to its
final season we saw the staff at The Bear facing its greatest struggles, the
possibility of financial collapse, how so many of the staff wanted to go their
own way, and the endless trauma that seems to follow Carmy and everyone in his
family. By the end of the season Carmy had realized he couldn't cook anymore
and was planning an exit strategy one that shifted the entire core of the show
towards the final season. It was a hell of an emotional journey. Con: The
fact that The Bear was nominated at all in for Season 4 actually seems
miraculous considering that its stock has completely plummeted in the eyes of
critics and even most fans. The overwhelming number of critics organizations
either ignored it entirely (Critics Choice, Astras, most of the Guilds) or gave
it just token nominations (SAG-AFTRA only nominated it for Best Ensemble). It
received just seven nominations a mere two years of setting records for most
nominations and wins for a Comedy series. Institutional memory brought it back
for Season 4 and nothing else.
Hacks: (HBO
MAX) (EXPERTS
PICK, MY PICK)
Pro: Every
season it debuted since 2021 Hacks has been a force at every Emmys it
was eligible. In addition to its upset victory on 2024 it has to date won 12 Emmys.
In its final season much like Deb it decided to go out on top and it was
absolutely wonderful. Deb spent the last season trying to change the narrative
of her legacy after being cancelled both literally and figuratively last
season. She spent most of the final season trying to have a sellout as Madison
Square Garden and in typical Hacks fashion it had to reinvent itself at
the last minute and still came out ahead. The same was true for every single
regular: Ava finally achieved her dream of her own comedy series based on the
last five years, Jimmy and Kayla spent the season in a fight with the agency
that they had broke from, seemed beaten irrevocably and in the last moments
came out on top thanks to their own ingenuity. Marcus helped open a casino and
comedy club in Vegas where all of the great things about this show had started.
And in the series finale when it seemed that the journey was ending in a tragic
place, comedy yet again saved Deb's life. The show has been nominated for 25
Emmys, the most of any series this year. It has already prevailed at the Astras
and other awards shows. So the only question is: can anything stop the
inevitable? Con: It has nothing working against it except the fact that
there's something beneath the surface – which I'll get to at the end.
Margo's
Got Money Troubles (Apple
TV)
Pro: In another year this show would be the
phenomena freshman comedy of 2026. It was one of the great shows of the year
anyway with a plot that seemed so much like it sprang from the mind of David E.
Kelley I was stunned to learn it was yet another adaptation. But come on, who
else could you think of coming up with the idea when a college student gets
knocked up by her professor she decides to raise her money by going on OnlyFans
and deciding to use both her creative writing skills and her father's pro-wrestling
career for inspiration, leading to a custody battle? The entire series had the
bubbly spirit of its title character with Elle Fanning finally realizing the
joy that I never saw out of her in The Great and an incredible
supporting cast from Mrs. David E. Kelley (Michelle Pfeiffer) as the ultimate
GMILF and Nick Offerman as the absentee father from every single role down from
Marcia Gay Harden to Nicole Kidman as a former professional wrestler with a law
degree (because what else do you expect?) I loved every minute of the show and
I can't wait for Season 2. Con: The biggest thing working against it is
a show that came out two months later. Now one of the best comedy series of the
year is merely the second best freshman comedy to debut on Apple TV in 2026.
Nobody
Wants This (Netflix)
Pro: As Noah and Joanne began to forge
their way into a monogamous relationship as you might expect chaos ensued.
Noah's family was doing everything possible to undermine it while Joanne had to
deal with the chaos of her big sister Morgan involved with an older man who
happened to be her therapist. This storyline was very much the backbone of
Season 2 and led to a fair amount of agita. The show continued to be the kind
of comfort food and comedy we all needed led by the always incredible Adam
Brody and Kristen Bell and a delightful supporting cast. It was always fun. Con:
The fact that aside from here, the show received just one other nomination
demonstrates just how much it has dropped in the opinions of both fans and the
critics. It might be a bit on the nose to say that nobody wants this show to be
here anymore but it's definitely got no real chance to win here.
Only
Murders In The Building (Hulu)
Pro: If nothing else this show should be
the sentimental favorite by now. In Season Five Charles, Oliver and Mabel went
from finding a finger in Oliver's wedding shrimp to the greatest threat the
Arconia has yet faced. All of this was fixed with the usual comedy were used
to: a casino in the hotel, a cybernetic doorman, a mobster, the one percent
playing Clue for a trophy, Charles taking testosterone (that was the scariest).
We saw Oliver embrace the possible of domestic bliss with his new wife, Charles
facing yet another encounter with a dangerous woman and an increasing array of
guest stars so great it would overwhelm any other show but this one. And just
as with every season we saw the wonderful byplay between these three incredible
actors that makes this one of the greatest accomplishments of the 2020s. Con:
As Selena Gomez once said: "But we never win anything!" And that
just be the same pattern we get year after year after year. I guess this is
what happens when there are just so many comic masterpieces on TV these days.
But seriously, who has to die for them to get some love from the Emmys?
Shrinking
(Apple TV)
Pro: Bill Lawrence had a hell of a year and
it was never better felt in the third season of his second masterpiece for
Apple TV. Jimmy faced the possibility of dating again and an empty nest. Gaby
dealt with professional problems and personal happiness. Liz and Derek faced
their own family struggles with the kind of charm they always do. Brian
embraced the idea of fatherhood. And Paul faced both his illness and his legacy
with the kind of brusque humor we always get. All this plus Jason Segel and
Michael Urie giving us the recreation from Les Mis we never knew we needed but
now can't live without. This is one of the most glorious shows I've seen in a
decade filled with comic masterpieces. Each season the Emmys keep giving it
more nominations. Earlier this week it received the prize from the Astras for
Best Streaming Ensemble over even Hacks. It deserves to win…Con:…just
not this year. Oh there are definitely going to be some awards for the actors
this season but the grand prize isn't going to come this year. And if there is
an Apple TV comedy that manages to upset Hacks it will be…
Widow's
Bay (Apple TV) (DARK
HORSE)
Pro: Not since the early seasons of The
Bear has their been a streaming cultural phenomenon quite like the
comedy/horror/surrealist matchup that is Widow's Bay. It has become both
a crowd pleaser and a critic pleaser in a way that few shows manage to do in an
era when our attention is split in every direction. And even with only seven
episodes eligible for awards this year (the last three aired in June) it is without
question one of the most original things I've seen on TV this decade. With Kate
Dipold and that master of the mashup Hiro Murai behind the camera, we are led
into a town which is almost certainly the setting for a horror film to anyone
who is not Tom Loftis at the start of the season. He is determined to
drag his town kicking and screaming into the 21st century despite
the fact he loathes it with every fiber of his being and you know, despite
their being a curse that may or may not stop everyone whose born there to die
when they leave the island. Matthew Rhys, who really has to stop showing off (he's
taking the attention away from his wife) demonstrates he can do comedy just as
well as everything else and he is joined by an incredible cast of character
actors who seem to have been cast as if they just look odd as well as their
talent. This is a hysterical parody of horror and there's love for it by far:
19 nominations is nothing to sneeze at. It could very well pull an upset. Con:
This is Hacks last chance at the big prize. I'm not saying Widow's
Bay won't upset it but the Emmys do have a history of coronating quite a
few great shows at the end of their runs. We most clearly saw it with Fleabag
and I suspect everyone will be fine if Widow's Bay waits until next
year. (Don't sic the Sea Hag on me!)
MY PICK: This year I'm confident Hacks goes
out with the grand prize and I couldn't be happier.
Tomorrow my pick for Outstanding Lead
Actor in A Comedy.
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