First of all having seen all seven
performances in this category, damn you Emmys for making me have to choose. I
can take some measure of relief that for five of the nominees we'll be seeing
them again in years to come but still, no one should have to make a choice like
this.
Now on a more serious note there is a
clear favorite in this category but the dark horse is gaining momentum as we
speak (I'll actually be talking about that when we get to her). There are also
a couple of X factors working against the favorite, some of which is beyond the
scope of her work which was, as always, a master class. Still never has the
phrase: "It's an honor just to be nominated' been meant with more
sincerity then in this category, much as has been the case for the entire
decade so far.
With that in mind let's deal with the
nominees for Supporting Actress first.
Dale Dickey, Widow's Bay. For
Playing: Rosemary,
the perpetually put upon assistant at the Mayor's Office who knows a lot and
will gladly tell you. Pro: Brace yourself. This is Dale Dickey's first
Emmy nomination. Can you believe it? This year alone she had roles in The
Hunting Wives, The Lowdown, Fallout, Bosch: Legacy and Dutton Ranch. I've
marveled at her in Unbelievable, Vice Principals, she's had roles in True
Blood… why did it take this long? Most of the actors in Widow's Bay have
clearly been cast both on their appearances and deadpan delivery and Dickey has
always been great with both. She's not as showy in her brilliance as all the
other actors (its who she is) but as always she can make clear with so few
words just how great a talent she is. Witness her wonderful moments during
Tom's mushroom trip when she stops off at a convenience store and between
flashes its clear Tom has raided the place – and she's still scratching off
lottery tickets unperturbed. She's a joy to watch in this like everyone else. Con:
Look Rosemary was fun during the party but come on, we all know that if
someone from this category wins it's going to be the one who won the dancing
competition.
Hannah Einbinder, Hacks (EXPERTS
PICK). For Playing: Ava Daniels, trying to help Deborah Vance realize her
legacy while striking out on her own. Pro: If you can separate the politicizing of the performer
about social justice (which I can but others may not be able to) Einbinder's
work in the final season of Hacks was just as magnificent as Jean
Smart's final season. With the fighting between them behind it became clear
that Ava was Deb's best friend as much as Deb admitted she was Ava's. And we
got to see her do her usual humiliating hysterical bits all season: her
preferring to take a male escort until she learned he was a magician, her
trying to find a way to do her own series by stealing the salt and pepper
shakers of Deb, her magnificent work in 'Montecito' where she really leaned
into playing Deb's lesbian lover and making Deb uncomfortable while absolutely
wanting to hit Leslie Bibb. And this was balanced perfectly by the series
finale when she learned about Deb's plan to end her own life after a European
vacation and spent much of it in denial and then deciding to enjoy it with all
the fun she could get. Of course she tried to talk Deb out of it, but then she
decided to support her – and then remarkably what brought them together in the
first place – comedy – saved Deb's life for the second time. Einbinder has not
gotten nearly as much respect as Smart has at the Emmys (though to be fair this
has been an incredibly crowded field) and she deserves one more Emmy. Con: It's
not so much her politics that may hurt her as the momentum from at least one
and possibly two of the nominees in this category. She did win the Astra for
Outstanding Supporting Actress earlier this week against a crowded field but
she's won twice before and it came to nothing.
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary. (MY
PICK). For Playing: Ava Coleman, the vice principal of Abbott Elementary,
facing increasing professional challenges with her new personal life. Pro: James was stunned back in January when
she managed to win in this category at the Critics Choice Awards over Einbinder
who'd won the Emmy a few months earlier. I wasn't. James has been the comic
spark that has kept Abbott rolling for five seasons. In her second
administration (and yes, there were quite a few jokes about the White House
this season) Ava did everything to show both immense professional growth while
trying to ignore it. She managed to find a mall when there was a water heater
break for school and then tried to ignore the attacks of parents, before
working to get them back to Abbott. She engaged in another battle with her
great rival over no homework, which ended disastrously. And she ended up
fighting to save Abbott against her will in the season finale – and did. This
was balanced by a great personal growth, not only with her colleagues (though
she really doesn't want to call them friends) particularly her meddling with
Janine and her increasing love for her working class boyfriend which has caused
her more to put herself front and center in that relationship and even
acknowledge "he's a good looking man with a good heart." I've wanted
her to win since Season 1 and I think it's time. Con: This is an
extremely crowded category with a lot of incredible performances. Don't take
her lightly but I don't think it's happening this year.
Kate O'Flynn, Widow's Bay (DARK
HORSE…AND RISING FAST). For Playing: Patricia, the town outcast trying to help
the Mayor while boosting her popularity. Pro: Ever since the already classic 'Beach
Reads' episode aired Kate O'Flynn has been skyrocketing in the odds for an
Emmy. With good reason. For much of the first season you can tell that Patricia
has spent her entire life as a doormat, believing nearly being the victim of
The Boogeyman should give her cache but no one in the town thinks so. It's
clear that Tom's subtle bullying has been a weight on her all her career as
well. So she leans into Sunset Cocktails as a chance to help boost her. Then
she ends up finding a book in her bookmobile that is clearly right out of the
Hiro Murai set of things you know are lying to you. And so she manages to
arrange a wonderful party, that seems to go very well, that leads to an
incredible dance number, a toast where she seems to have achieved everything
she ever wanted – and then of course, she learns she's been manipulated by dark
forces into a leading a human sacrifice. In the episodes that follow you can
tell just how ridiculous she's been taking by everybody around her and that she
seems to be more upset about how badly her party went then the dark forces
surrounding the town. This week she took prizes from both the Dorian Awards and
the TCA (for Best Comedic Performance) and I think the momentum is shifting to
her. Con: The question is if O'Flynn and Widow's Bay can overcome
the sentimentality for the gorilla that is Hacks. It's a close question.
Michelle Pfeiffer, Margo's Got
Money Troubles. For Playing: Shayenne, the single mom of a soon to be also
single mom trying to get married while her old life hangs in the background.
Pro: Under other
circumstances I would absolutely be pulling for Pfeiffer to win in this
category. For one thing her husband has been hogging the spotlight in TV for
the last decade, I think she should get some of the credit for once. For
another, in what is her first major TV role in her career Pfeiffer is clearly
having the time of her life. Her husband has always written well for women of a
certain age and Pfeiffer absolutely nails every line she says, whether trying
to support her daughter for doing what she did as a teenager, trying to
reinvent herself for her new churchgoing husband, having no use for Margo's
father showing up after her granddaughter is borne (with good reason as it
turns out) and an utter discomfort with her grandson the whole time. The season
finale is magnificent for her, particularly in the courtroom where so much
depends on her grandson not crying as he has done on every occasion he's been
put in her arms. Throw in the fact that we get to hear her belt out 'Angel of
the Morning' with Elle Fanning and so many other musical numbers and its
wonderful to see her back in form. Con: We all know how unsentimental
the Emmys are. But the show has been renewed for a second season so it's pretty
safe to say she'll get another bite at the apple eventually.
Meg Stalter, Hacks. For
Playing: Kayla, trying to hold on to her role and her own agency among
increasing challenges from her father. Pro: Over the course of the series Stalter's Kayla has become Hacks
secret weapon. Few character have shown more emotional growth yet while
being intellectually clueless at the same time as Stalter's incredible work as
Kayla. Unapologetic about everything she says or does, she is willing to do the
wrong thing for the right reason every single time and she takes the fact that her
father is cutting her off for denying the Schaffer name incredibly personally.
The final half of the season shows Stalter at her absolute best, showing her
real friendship if near sibling bond with Jimmy, helping Deb achieve her dream
and in the series finale taking back what's hers with an incredibly rousing
speech with Jimmy – in which they have to share a microphone. I've been pulling
for Stalter being nominated for the last three seasons in this category: the
fact that the Emmys finally gave it to her as a valedictory is a triumph for
both her and for the Academy. Con: We all know if someone from Hacks is
going to win in this category it will be Einbinder and for all her brashness in
her onscreen persona I suspect Stalter is fine with that herself.
Jessica Williams, Shrinking. For
Playing: Gabby, branching out into a new form of psychiatry and then
experiences a setback so bad it hurts her professionally and personally. Pro: For the third consecutive season
Williams has been nominated in this category for her hysterical and heartfelt
work as Gabby. She has been spreading her wings throughout the third season,
hoping to venture into trauma psychiatry and a better personal relationship
with Derrick #2. But that led to tragedy when after weeks of helping build a
relationship with a patient that was hard to get to open up that patient
overdosed and she spent the last third of the season struggling to recover.
Williams work has always been hysterical and she's as much the beating heart of
this series as anyone else. Someday she'll win in this category. Con: But
that ain't this year. Williams' misfortune is that she has been nominated in
what every year in the decade has been a category filled with incredible talent
and that hasn't changed in 2026. There are going to be some winners from Shrinking
this year but she won't be one of them.
My Prediction: It's a close call and Einbinder may
hold on to win but I think the Emmys might very well want to give Patricia a
moment in the spotlight. O'Flynn is given a slight edge.
OTHER PREDICTIONS
Guest Actress in A Comedy
I've seen all seven nominees, in part
because five of them were in Hacks. I think Kaitlin Olson will finally
get her moment in the Emmy sun. Sorry Betty Gilpin, I would love to see it.
Guest Actor in A Comedy
Michael J. Fox already won the Astra
in this category. He gets this one going away.
For Outstanding Directing Widow's
Bay gets this for the season premiere. For Outstanding Writing, Hacks gets
this for the series finale. The latter seems a shoo-in considering that Hacks
has won in this category twice already at the Emmys. The latter they've
only won once in and let's be honest Widow's Bay is a technical
masterpiece.
Next week I'll be dealing with Drama
and the battle between The Pitt and Pluribus.
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