Friday, August 28, 2026

My Predictions for the 2026 Emmys Week 2 Conclusion:Outstanding Supporting Actress in A Drama Et Al

 

We've had multiple nominees from the same series in Best Supporting Actress every single year this decade so far. And it rarely works out for one of the nominees from the drama that has the most nominees.  Prime example: It's very likely the split between the four nominees from The White Lotus last year helped pave the way for Katherine LaNasa's win for The Pitt – which clearly shocked her.

Now she's the favorite to repeat but the shoe's on the other foot. There are four other nominees from The Pitt that very likely will divide the vote. Throw in the fact a couple of other performers have won awards for shows this season and this is far from decided.

For the record I'm going to do what I did for Supporting Actor in a Drama and throw in my personal pick from The Pitt as well as a favorite from a different show. Keep in mind this is a top heavy field.

 

Taylor Dearden, The Pitt (My Pick for The Pitt). For Playing: Dr. Mel King, sweating a deposition and finding out new facts about her sister. Pro: Dearden is my favorite character this season for many reasons. For one thing she's still incredibly nervous about working here in a way most of the staff isn't, spending the first half of the shift terrified of a deposition. For another, she's centered her entire life around the care of her disabled sister so it appalls her to learn that not only does her sister have a better social life she does but is pulling away from her because of it. And there's the realization that she's trying to keep things together without flying apart and has formed so many bonds that I already care about deeply. Throw in the fact that she is the daughter of Bryan Cranston and there's a feel good story. And come on for that post Season 2 credits rendition of You Ought to Know alone she deserves respect. (I want her and Isa Briones to recreate that moment on the Emmy stage this year.) Con: Like Mel herself it seems likely that Dearden will always be overshadowed by greater talent. I rest assured by the certainty that while this is his first nomination, it won't be her last.

 

Fiona Dourif, The Pitt. For Playing: Dr. Cassie McKay, facing a chaotic shift where she watches a terminally ill patient make a difficult decision. Pro: Like Dearden, Dourif is the daughter of a great actor. (Indeed her father Brad appeared in Season 1.) But her work is often more subtle and compassionate. Much of her work this shift dealt with her taking care of a terminally ill cancer patient and her family and then watched as she made the decision to end her life and spent most of that shift trying to prepare her family and most frequently her children to say goodbye. In one of those deep ironies that often affects this show, Cassie was on the street when her patient passed away and that clearly hit her even deeper then the death itself. Dourif's nomination was the least expected of the four nominees on this show but in my mind it’s one of the better choices by the Emmys overall this year. Con: The storyline she's a part of may help her – Tai Anderson was nominated for an Emmy along with Dourif – but its far more likely she will be overshadowed by other forces

Alison Janney, The Diplomat. For Playing: Grace Penn, ascending to the White House after the death of the President. Pro: There's the historical part if Janney were to pull of a victory here. It would be her eighth Emmy as an actress, putting her into a tie with Julia-Louis Dreyfus for most Emmys won by a performer. There's the synchronicity of it: her first four Emmys came for her work as CJ on The West Wing where she merely spoke for the President and now she is playing the President. There's the continued fact of her versatility and excellence. Going into this Emmy cycle she had a chance to be nominated in comedy for her work in Palm Royale and TV Movie Limited Series for Miss You, Love You. There's the fact that over the last two years, incredibly, the Emmy have shortchanged her, especially by ignoring her in this category last year when she was nominated for every award in the book for her role. And then there's the fact that yet again she demonstrates all the qualities that have made Janney one of the greatest actresses in history as Grace Penn, a President who has committed treason just before she took office and now has concerned about what will be done. Con: The Emmys might very well want to give a prize to someone who hasn't already got an Emmy in every acting category a performer can win in in both drama and pretty much comedy as well. Not saying they won't give it to Janney, or that she doesn't deserve it, but it hasn't been their pattern this decade

Katherine LaNasa, The Pitt (EXPERTS PICK). For Playing: Charge Nurse Dana Evans, dealing with a chaotic shift while still recovering from her assault from last year. Pro: It's been clear this shift that Dana is only slightly more put together then Robby. She spent much of the season helping a trainee adjust to her first day and several hours dealing with a victim of sexual assault, then erupting in fury when she learned a rape kit from weeks earlier still hadn't been collected. She spent the shift handling the analog ER and trying to protect her trainees and increasingly becoming worried by Robby's harsh and mean-spirited behavior. It all exploded in a long confrontation after Dana ended up dosing a patient who assaulted one of her nurses and she told Robby everything would be here when he came back. When he answered: "What if I don't come back?" you could see the terror forming over LaNasa's faces even as he never answered the question. All in all, it was a superb performance that deserves to repeat in this category. Con: What worked for LaNasa last year could very well work against her this year. Throw in the fact of what happened at this year's Astras and I'm beginning to think momentum might be shifting to…

Sepideh Moafi, The Pitt (DARK HORSE). For Playing: Dr. Al-Hashimi, the interim replacement who clashes with Dr. Robby and is hiding a diagnosis. Pro: Moafi was the most central new cast member to The Pitt in Season 2, an accomplished doctor with a clear history behind her who was more than qualified to replace Dr. Robby and yet no matter how good she was he challenged her in every scene they shared. The overwhelming majority of this was on him: as an outsider with no knowledge of the history she had the clearest look at how horrible his behavior was to his fellow doctor and it was satisfying watching her cut him down throughout the entire season. But there was clearly something she was hiding and when she told Robby about in the final episodes it faced him with an ethical dilemma that we're still not sure how it will be resolved next season. It was a restrained, calm performance the type that usually doesn't get recognition. So the fact that Moafi managed to win at the Astras a few weeks ago in this category is the clearest sign yet that it might resonate with Emmy voters. Con: Moafi's problem is the same as every other nominee for The Pitt: the other three actresses will (for good reason) take votes away from her. I don't envy them their jobs: all of these actresses gave superb performances and it's going to be tough for them to choose.

Julianne Nicholson, Paradise (My Pick). For Playing: Sarah Redmond, code name Sinatra facing threats from without and within after emerging from a month-long coma. Pro: I'm very grateful the Emmys have been catching up with one of the most undervalued actresses in 21st century TV.  She won an Emmy for playing 'Dance Mom' on Hacks last year while being nominated in this same category. While her role in Paradise was somewhat diminished compared to Season 2, Nicholson continued to flesh about Sinatra to the point where by the end of the season (and in theory her life) she went from villain to antagonist to someone who did bad things for the right reasons. It's clear that all along she's been trying to save humanity and that caused her to horrific things even before the reality of the bunker. But we saw the good person she once was while she watched the birth of the first child in Paradise, someone who genuinely wanted the approval of her therapist, someone who may have done everything to see her son again and may have succeeded. In the final minutes of Season 2 she seemed at peace for the first time in the entire series, watching the bunker she spend her life and fortune on collapse over her head and in that final moment perhaps realize what she wanted all along. I don't really know if this will be the end of Nicholson's tour (as we saw throughout the season we saw a lot of the people who died last year in flashbacks) but it's the kind of role deserving of an award. Con: As superb as her work is I have to admit it's not at the same level of even some of the other non-Pitt nominees. But considering she's recreating the role that won the first Emmy she got in Mare of Easttown in Season 2 of Task I think it's safe to say she'll have another chance sooner rather than later.

Karolina Wydra, Pluribus. For Playing: Zosia, the representative of the hive mind to Carol. Pro: Wydra was one of the breakout stars of 2025 for her work as Zosia and that's saying something considering that most of the season she's basically a representation of the forces that have conquered Earth rather than a character of her own. I always give extra credit for those whose roles have deeper layer and you can't get much deeper than someone who doesn't think she's an actual person. Most of the time the viewer doesn't trust Zosia's motives any more than Carol does and we watch as Carol clearly becomes charmed by her with a sign of concern. But there's something about Zosia's very real ability to struggle with calling herself 'I' rather then the hive mind 'We' that is very really, along with the memory she shares with Carol as Zosia for the first time in the series. In that montage where its clear Carol has fallen in love with Zosia for the briefest of moment we want to believe in it not just for Carol, but for Zosia. That's how good a job Wydra has done. It's a revelatory performance that has gotten deserved respect, including a Saturn for Best Supporting Actress. Of all the nominees who aren't in The Pitt, I think Wydra has the best chance of breaking through and winning. Con: Wydra is a supporting actress in a series that was created by Vince Gilligan. We all know just how well that tends to work for them the last decade.

 

Prediction: I think that this one is more wide open then it looks. For the moment I'm predicted Moafi but I'm not confident of it. To be clear they are all deserving winners.

 

Now let's look through the remaining categories.

 

 

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA

Colman Domingo has previously won in this category and is the heavy favorite to repeat for the final season of Euphoria. I'm actually inclined to think that it will go to Jeff Kober for his work as Duke in the final stretch of The Pitt.

 

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA

Having seen all six performances my personally preference is for Shailene Woodley who is still the favorite for her work in Paradise. Brittany Allen is gaining on her but I'd personally bet on Tai Anderson for pulling it off for someone from The Pitt.

 

 

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING AND WRITING

I expect Pluribus to win in both of these categories. That being said, don't rule out an upset by Slow Horses in either one as that does seem to be their pattern. It's currently ranked in third place in writing for the season finale behind The Pitt and Pluribus so I'm guessing that's where it would happen if it does.

 

Next week, I will wrap up by coverage with Best Limited Series. Oh and stay tuned this weekend as I let the Emmy have it with both barrels as to how they're doing it this year. One week to change your mind, NBC.

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